Hello everybody! A short update on some of latest developments… Although Kyiv claims that the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) has greatly decreased the number of strikes by its Su-24s and Su-34 that are releasing glide bombs (from ‘over 100’ to ‘between 50 and 60’ glide bombs a day), the Russians do maintain a steady sortie rate. For example, multiple operations by up to six low-flying Su-25s can be monitored every day. Given the recent re-deployment of Su-34s of the 4
I think you need to relook something. You said early on something to the effect of "Problem: The UA seem to have gotten a lot of artillery ammunition at this location". I can't say as I see that as a problem. Not at all :)
Thank you for the update, sobering as it actually is. Regarding the air war fare, not surprised if the Russians wants Ukrainian air defense a lenger distanse from the front. Devils alternative that one, withdraw and protect cities but leave the front unprotected… On the other hand, Movieguide your «training force» forward to maintain the pressure indicates that their losses are felt. But the reaction is that they want to maintain their air support of the army, come hell or anti air craft. Well, our Solution should be more anti aircraft weapons now.
But how can Shaheds help it? Main danger for Russian VKS with UMPK is Patriot, C 300 probably c 200, no buks. No one would use Patriot to regularly shot down the drones, only occasionally in case of straight danger. It would have to use cruise or ballistic missles to force ZSU move serious SAMs, but Shaheds isn't their profile
PSU detects-reports to GSU, GSU warns Ground troops commandment, GTC->art brigade chief, ABC->unit commander. That is quite primitive chain, reality is far more complex.
Question: how long does it take an Iskander launched from 70-80km to reach its target?
Problem solving: routs random change, mobility, speed, cover, maskirovka.
Once something of mentioned goes missing, problem appears. Ru is a smart, fast learning, damn uneasy enemy
Too nice to be true. I have never heard about such real time sys connecting psu, ssu, msu etc. it should be installed in every command post at least… i think even americans have nothing similar
Americans have integrated air defense which allows them to track incoming missiles country-wide. The system already knows positions of all the air defense vehicles. The upgrade would be to connect it to smartphones of HIMARS crews so that it be able to track their positions and notify them of incoming missiles.
I wonder if Russia's new tactics are to launch the glide bombs at a lower altitude. The bombs would have much less range, but the launch craft would be more protected from long range SAMs (due to ground masking)
And we can't be sure that UMPK can withstand and endure such overloads, because unlike high altitude strikes it will be more than simple gliding. Moreover, JDAM is more aerodynamic than FAB so efficiency for low strikes can be lower due to smaller distance of throwing
Если удары российской авиации продолжаются как будто не было сбитий российской авиации - так может действительно ее не сбивали в таких количествах как публиковал украинский Генштаб?
Ok according to Genstab were hitted 13 Su 34. Fleet of only su 34 is 120, adding su 24 and now mig 29 they have plenty of planes. Actually if count number of salvos per day that reaches more 100 bombs per day that is between 25 and 45 flights per day, we receive that chance of Russian pilot to be hitted was from 1/8 to 1/15 in the worst days. Including also facts that they used a moment of absent artillery shells in ZSU that already started to improve and UMPK is the most effective weapon in their arsenal, they could simply decide that such losses are acceptable for them. And honestly number of sorties fell almost 2 times from more than 100-120 to 45-60 per day , so they don't fly as before
Looses are probably lower as announced, und RU can maybe decide to accept this looses for some time, but if pilot flies 20 sorties per month then he has 40% to be hit. So questions is if all pilots accept this. There are some rumours that some pilots damaged their planes not to flight.
Can only agree with your conclusions: even a loss of 20 fighter-bombers, wouldn't really 'seriously damage' the VKS.
But yes, the total number of sorties decreased significantly. That said, they do not need as many: 4 UMPKs usually carried by one Su-34, can target four different targets.
MT-LBs are evolving to look more and more like the old German halftracks every day. Appropriate, since the Nazis have apparently finally taken Moscow.
And that T-54... did *not* have the NATO and Warsaw Pact from 1962 fighting it out across the Ukrainian steppe in 2024.
Like, in my first fiction saga I wrote scenes of Ragnarok with mashups of soldiers from all different eras fighting it out in the Last Battle... but never really expected to live to see a real-life imitation. If I'm somehow Nostradamus reborn, bet on half the USA looking like Ukraine in twenty years.
Hi Tom! Here is an interesting bit of information for you: according to the US Military Sealift Command they have so far transported to Ukraine 200.000 metric tons of equipment, 5400 air-defense missiles and 2,3 million artillery rounds. Source: USNI Proceedings, March 2024, page 11.
Hi Tom, I want to ask You some questions about the Russian airframes reserve.
Recently, VKS introduced Su-24M to offensive front line duties along the Su-34.
What about the Mig-29 and Mig-35? Why are not being used in Ukraine? Or why are not being reported?
And, as the war carries on, is possible for the VKS to reintroduce earlier MIGs, like Mig-23MLD for drone interception at low altitude or Mig-27 for front line attack duties? Are the airframes still available?
Good Morning Tom, thanks for the update . .
I think you need to relook something. You said early on something to the effect of "Problem: The UA seem to have gotten a lot of artillery ammunition at this location". I can't say as I see that as a problem. Not at all :)
That's not a problem - that's a solution!
I read and understand it as:
Problem (for the Russians): The UA …
"the arrival of artillery ammunition has helped Ukrainians" do you know if these are from UA reserve stocks, or coming into UA from Western countries?
There is no UA reserves stocks…
- new production in UA
- new production of UA in EU
- supply from 3rd parties stocks, mostly 122/152mm
- supply from western countries, mostly 155mm
I would really like to know if those arriving shells are part of "cz initiative". If yes and this is part of some steady flow, it's good news.
I am affraid we will never know about it. UA had purchased some shells by itself either
Thank you very much.
Thank you for the update, sobering as it actually is. Regarding the air war fare, not surprised if the Russians wants Ukrainian air defense a lenger distanse from the front. Devils alternative that one, withdraw and protect cities but leave the front unprotected… On the other hand, Movieguide your «training force» forward to maintain the pressure indicates that their losses are felt. But the reaction is that they want to maintain their air support of the army, come hell or anti air craft. Well, our Solution should be more anti aircraft weapons now.
But how can Shaheds help it? Main danger for Russian VKS with UMPK is Patriot, C 300 probably c 200, no buks. No one would use Patriot to regularly shot down the drones, only occasionally in case of straight danger. It would have to use cruise or ballistic missles to force ZSU move serious SAMs, but Shaheds isn't their profile
The Ukrainian AD and MLRS are being hit with ballistic missiles.
Is it possible to see the missiles on radars and warn the crews of the deployed systems?
PSU detects-reports to GSU, GSU warns Ground troops commandment, GTC->art brigade chief, ABC->unit commander. That is quite primitive chain, reality is far more complex.
Question: how long does it take an Iskander launched from 70-80km to reach its target?
Problem solving: routs random change, mobility, speed, cover, maskirovka.
Once something of mentioned goes missing, problem appears. Ru is a smart, fast learning, damn uneasy enemy
Answer: Integrated software that gets notified by radars and notifies all equipment deployed to a target's projected hit area.
Answer: 1-2 min at Mach 3 (1 km/sec).
Too nice to be true. I have never heard about such real time sys connecting psu, ssu, msu etc. it should be installed in every command post at least… i think even americans have nothing similar
Americans have integrated air defense which allows them to track incoming missiles country-wide. The system already knows positions of all the air defense vehicles. The upgrade would be to connect it to smartphones of HIMARS crews so that it be able to track their positions and notify them of incoming missiles.
It would be more effective to detect UAVs than missles, because as we can see all such strikes happened only after detection from the sky
UAV are small, hard to hit and they are always there.
Thanks To for the update lots going on lets hope more artillary shell make it to the UAF pronto
I wonder if Russia's new tactics are to launch the glide bombs at a lower altitude. The bombs would have much less range, but the launch craft would be more protected from long range SAMs (due to ground masking)
Me too. Haven't seen any evidence yet, though.
And we can't be sure that UMPK can withstand and endure such overloads, because unlike high altitude strikes it will be more than simple gliding. Moreover, JDAM is more aerodynamic than FAB so efficiency for low strikes can be lower due to smaller distance of throwing
Indeed: I doubt the UMPK-kit is aerodynamically efficient enough for low altitudes.
Looks like biggest problem now are glide bombs.
EU must transfer all availiable old Anti-Aircraft systems and especially rockets.
Another point is counter-measure for sead operations
“Superpower” Bulgaria produced more shells than all EU combined https://twitter.com/BTAnewsENG/status/1765406634304491673
I mean, where are Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Austria?
Bulgaria produces, the others give the money.
Если удары российской авиации продолжаются как будто не было сбитий российской авиации - так может действительно ее не сбивали в таких количествах как публиковал украинский Генштаб?
AFAIK, it's a mix of both: the VKS did lose quite a few aircraft, though unlikely as many as Kyiv claims.
The VKS has a growing problem with maintainability of its jets, though. They're simply not build to fight wars for 2+ years.
Finally, the VKS is lately deploying MiG-29s and MiG-35s to release glide bombs: they made up for losses.
You wrote that maintainability was a problem a year ago. Nothing changes.
....to at least some luck of Ukraine...
Ok according to Genstab were hitted 13 Su 34. Fleet of only su 34 is 120, adding su 24 and now mig 29 they have plenty of planes. Actually if count number of salvos per day that reaches more 100 bombs per day that is between 25 and 45 flights per day, we receive that chance of Russian pilot to be hitted was from 1/8 to 1/15 in the worst days. Including also facts that they used a moment of absent artillery shells in ZSU that already started to improve and UMPK is the most effective weapon in their arsenal, they could simply decide that such losses are acceptable for them. And honestly number of sorties fell almost 2 times from more than 100-120 to 45-60 per day , so they don't fly as before
Looses are probably lower as announced, und RU can maybe decide to accept this looses for some time, but if pilot flies 20 sorties per month then he has 40% to be hit. So questions is if all pilots accept this. There are some rumours that some pilots damaged their planes not to flight.
Can only agree with your conclusions: even a loss of 20 fighter-bombers, wouldn't really 'seriously damage' the VKS.
But yes, the total number of sorties decreased significantly. That said, they do not need as many: 4 UMPKs usually carried by one Su-34, can target four different targets.
MT-LBs are evolving to look more and more like the old German halftracks every day. Appropriate, since the Nazis have apparently finally taken Moscow.
And that T-54... did *not* have the NATO and Warsaw Pact from 1962 fighting it out across the Ukrainian steppe in 2024.
Like, in my first fiction saga I wrote scenes of Ragnarok with mashups of soldiers from all different eras fighting it out in the Last Battle... but never really expected to live to see a real-life imitation. If I'm somehow Nostradamus reborn, bet on half the USA looking like Ukraine in twenty years.
Thank you for the update as always.
Hi Tom! Here is an interesting bit of information for you: according to the US Military Sealift Command they have so far transported to Ukraine 200.000 metric tons of equipment, 5400 air-defense missiles and 2,3 million artillery rounds. Source: USNI Proceedings, March 2024, page 11.
Hi Tom, I want to ask You some questions about the Russian airframes reserve.
Recently, VKS introduced Su-24M to offensive front line duties along the Su-34.
What about the Mig-29 and Mig-35? Why are not being used in Ukraine? Or why are not being reported?
And, as the war carries on, is possible for the VKS to reintroduce earlier MIGs, like Mig-23MLD for drone interception at low altitude or Mig-27 for front line attack duties? Are the airframes still available?
Thanks a lot, as usual.