Ukraine War, 6 March 2024

Hello everybody!

A short update on some of latest developments…

Although Kyiv claims that the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) has greatly decreased the number of strikes by its Su-24s and Su-34 that are releasing glide bombs (from ‘over 100’ to ‘between 50 and 60’ glide bombs a day), the Russians do maintain a steady sortie rate. For example, multiple operations by up to six low-flying Su-25s can be monitored every day. Given the recent re-deployment of Su-34s of the 4^th Centre for Combat Application (essentially: the fighter-weapons school of the VKS) to bases closer to the frontline, one must expect the Russians to study reasons for their recent spate of losses, develop new tactics, prepare additional new weapons (foremost the Kh-36 Grom, for example), and then return in force.

Indeed, the Russian SEAD-effort went on, the last few days and, between others, resulted in destruction of most of one of remaining Ukrainian S-300 SAM-sites.

The last night’s ‘unusually big’ strike by some 42 Shaheds sent against targets deeper inside Ukraine, might be an attempt to force the PSU to withdraw some of its long-range SAMs from the frontline, and thus improve protection of objects deeper in the rear. Ukrainians claimed 38 of these as shot down.

After months of claiming ‘destroyed HIMARS’, while providing no evidence at all, the Russians have managed to destroy the first Ukrainian M142 HIMARS launcher. Apparently, this was hit some 40km behind the frontlines, and then by an Iskander-M (quasi-)ballistic missile. Ukrainian contacts have confirmed the death of the crew.

Indeed, the Russians went on to claim another M142 HIMARS launcher (still from a video in question is attached below) - and that by their BM-30 Smerch-S multiple rocket launcher calibre 300mm: problem is that the video is unclear in regards of what exactly was targeted in that case.

In turn, Ukrainians claimed the destruction of at least one BM-27 multiple rocket launcher in the Polohy area.

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BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk-Svatove… positional battles.

Kremina… back-and-forth-fighting for positions in the Terny area…

Bakhmut… offensive operations of the 98^th VDV Division and the 11^th VDV Brigade have now been re-focused entirely on Ivanivske. These two units have spent most of their offensive capability, but their command is still feeding them with additional mobik-battalions (reservists). The Russians do have positions along the eastern side of the village and are trying to push into the centre. Problem: the Ukrainian group of forces deployed in this area appears to have started receiving artillery shells.

South of Bakhmut, and north of Klishchivka: the arrival of artillery ammunition has helped Ukrainians a lot in repelling a big attack by the (re-re-built… for XYth time) 4^th Motor Rifle Brigade (former LPR) and few other units, two nights ago. In turn, this Russian assault came atop of some 20+ attacks by FPV drones and numerous air strikes. Means: remains an area worth monitoring.

Avdiivka-Shakhtarsk…

Generally, the last few days the Russian onslaught in this area came to a standstill. Of course, the fighting is still going on and the Russians are assaulting, but – with exception of two areas, they’re at least as busy digging trenches. Berdychi, Semenivk, and Orlivka have been hit by some 30-40 glide bombs, the last 4-5 days.

Berdychi… is held by the 47^th Mech, which repelled all the Russian assaults.

Orlivka… after the 3^rd Assault kicked the Russians out in a high loop, the 25^th Airborne took over the defences of this village. This, however, was heavily hit by the Russian glide bombs. Now, some say, the Russians are meanwhile holding the eastern side of the village, but I’m not convinced. To me it appears they’re doing something much more logical: trying to advance along the two lakes south of Orlivka. Where they can find at least some cover thanks to vegetation. There, they seem to have wedged themselves all the way to the third such lake, the Zoryanskyy Stavok, south-west of the village.  

Tonenke… the 53^rd Mech seem to have improved its performance, the last few days, but: the Russian 1^st Motor Rifle did mange to entrench itself in the south-eastern-most corner of this village. Tonenke is of crucial importance for the defences of Orlivka, too: if it falls, the Russians are going to have it far easier to attack from the south.

South of Tonenke, the Russians are trying to push in direction of Pervomaiske, too. So far, without much success. Not really sure what are they actually trying to do there: from the the point of view of their Group of Forces Tsentr, that’s a ‘dissipation of forces’, and thus against their own military doctrine.

South of Mariinka..

Pobieda… 33^rd Mech is (still) holding well, but the Russians are meanwhile assaulting not only from the east, but from the north, too.

Novomykhailivka.. defended by the 79^th Airborne… This is the area of most fierce Russian assaults of the last few days. I’m not really sure the 155^th Naval Infantry has entrenched itself in the eastern side of the village, and on the local cemetery, as most of war-mappers are showing. I am sure that their assault groups are regularly capable of reaching these, though. Sounds like ‘nit-picking’, but is a significant difference… The Russians are all the while glide-bombing the village of Konstinatynivka, west of Novomykhailivka.

‘Death March’ of another of 155th’s assault groups, as seen on eastern approaches to Novomykhailivka.

Southern Zaporizhzhya

Robotyne… the 42^nd Motor Rifle Division has launched one more attempt to reach southern Robotyne, some three days ago, but this ended in another defeat and ever since the situation is quiet.