Hello everybody! I guess, I’ve spent the last few days like many others: trying to figure out which way to look as first. And, there was a lot to see - even if there was relatively little making much sense to me. On the other hand, have had a few interesting chats with few, usually, very well-informed people.
if it is no longer possible to store and accumulate, then they will use and apply - movement along the front has begun: everywhere, at the same time, everything cannot be bombed
Jun 6, 2023·edited Jun 6, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Great write up as always. As I was reading this got confirmation from twitter videos that the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown up. It will be interesting to hear your views on this
- Re missile warfare: this "wasting the perciousss missiles" complain comes up often. While it was obviously right when UAF had only (or mainly) S-300 against EVERYTHING, since the arrival of the different western systems it's clearly not true. Also, the price tag should compared to the value of the defended item - not to the destroyed one. Of course, it is better if you can choose from multiple options, but if there is only one, then you use that one - that's why you put that bloody system there. If somebody complains that this isn't the most effective use, then well, provide more alternatives, the UAF will be pretty happy about it.
- ground maneuvers: On the Belgorod front there were news a few days ago about attack on Urazovo as well, but then it disappeared. To me that was the first meaningful target, with the chance to cut the Troitske-Biloukraine-Starobilsk railway, but it can easily be that the VSRF came to the same conclusions and had much stronger forces there.
- fresh news that the Russians blew up the Nova Kahovka dam, causing serious flods. Previously it was said that the dam is crucial to the Enerhodar NPP cooling too, so it's quite disturbing news.
- Re MRAPS and M113: I have a nagging feeling that because the western heavy ground equipment comes so slowly and its replenishment is practically impossible (t least not in the timeframe of an operation), the UAF is a little shy to use them. Losses would be inevitable and success can not be guaranteed even with them, so they try to avoid the same "wasting our precioussss money" reactions when a destroyed Leo appears on Telegram without Big UAF Victory tags.
A Great update as usual. Many thanks Tom for it. Seems odd to me too that ZSU may use old or no adecuate vehicles to spearhead an attack. Really needed, or usual Keystone’s BS?
Thanks for the report Tom, as usual! What if the UAF thinks outside the box and send old M-113 equipped units because their plans where whistleblowed in the Washington Post leaks, to probe the defenses and signalling the VSRF that their can finally relax, retaining real assault forces (M-2/BMP equipped) to exploit whatever breakout their might achieve then?
any idea why belarusian volunteers are involved in raids in russia instead of belarus?
if it is no longer possible to store and accumulate, then they will use and apply - movement along the front has begun: everywhere, at the same time, everything cannot be bombed
MRAP: Mine Resistant Ambush Protected ?
Great write up as always. As I was reading this got confirmation from twitter videos that the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown up. It will be interesting to hear your views on this
Thank you. Interesting insight.
Let's wait and see.
BTW - you are probably aware already - ruzzia has blown Kakhovka Dam. That has multiple military consequences (and even more - civilian).
Thank you for the qick and dirty!
- Re missile warfare: this "wasting the perciousss missiles" complain comes up often. While it was obviously right when UAF had only (or mainly) S-300 against EVERYTHING, since the arrival of the different western systems it's clearly not true. Also, the price tag should compared to the value of the defended item - not to the destroyed one. Of course, it is better if you can choose from multiple options, but if there is only one, then you use that one - that's why you put that bloody system there. If somebody complains that this isn't the most effective use, then well, provide more alternatives, the UAF will be pretty happy about it.
- ground maneuvers: On the Belgorod front there were news a few days ago about attack on Urazovo as well, but then it disappeared. To me that was the first meaningful target, with the chance to cut the Troitske-Biloukraine-Starobilsk railway, but it can easily be that the VSRF came to the same conclusions and had much stronger forces there.
- fresh news that the Russians blew up the Nova Kahovka dam, causing serious flods. Previously it was said that the dam is crucial to the Enerhodar NPP cooling too, so it's quite disturbing news.
- Re MRAPS and M113: I have a nagging feeling that because the western heavy ground equipment comes so slowly and its replenishment is practically impossible (t least not in the timeframe of an operation), the UAF is a little shy to use them. Losses would be inevitable and success can not be guaranteed even with them, so they try to avoid the same "wasting our precioussss money" reactions when a destroyed Leo appears on Telegram without Big UAF Victory tags.
Here's visualisation of air attacks on Kyiv in May 2023 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxveswPWwBAOqFi?format=png&name=small
Tom, what about the dam! That’s all the rage today!
A Great update as usual. Many thanks Tom for it. Seems odd to me too that ZSU may use old or no adecuate vehicles to spearhead an attack. Really needed, or usual Keystone’s BS?
Thanks for the report Tom, as usual! What if the UAF thinks outside the box and send old M-113 equipped units because their plans where whistleblowed in the Washington Post leaks, to probe the defenses and signalling the VSRF that their can finally relax, retaining real assault forces (M-2/BMP equipped) to exploit whatever breakout their might achieve then?
The third picture ist NOT Monocrystal Works, it's Allneks Belgorod, Ulitsa Rzhevskoye Shosse, 29а, Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, Russland, 309295