A little bit telegraphic for this evening/morning, and focusing on an update on ground warfare of the last few days… Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina… several Russian attacks were reported over the last few days, some of them quite large in size. None was seriously successful. Essentially, and as mentioned so often: the VSRF has lost its serious offensive capability. It still has got lots of troops and guns, though…
Thanks Tom. I genuinely hoped that the rumours about th 128th were not true. Now that you confirmed them, i am speechless. A firing squad is not enough. I am glad Avdiivka holds.
There are rumours that Syrskyi was the mind behind bakhmut and now behind the southern offensive. Do you know if:
1. It's true.
2. He will be dismissed or moved.
3. How much political interference there is in the ZSU?
The ZSU is regulated by a huge codex of Soviet-time laws. In the first weeks of the war the commanders were struggling with the shock and everyone did what one considered to be the most efficient in the ongoing situation. After months of war the old management started to ensure the old laws which paralyze the initiative and cause everyone to obey the most stupid orders under the threat of 5+ years in prison.
I have no doubt about his patriotism. However, a few heads at the top must roll and if he was responsible, he must be relieved. That doesn't, at least it shouldn't, mean the end of his military career. It just means moving to a lower level or at least different task and showing improvement before considering promoting him back.
1. I heard an opinion that Russians are pinning their hopes in Avdeevka on mud season, as up until now ZSU was mostly relying on dirt roads to supply the troops there. Contrary, VSRF has a good railhead in Donetsk, and plenty of short paved roads from there to the frontline.
How crucial this might be?
2. What do you know about a new railroad the Russians are supposedly building along the shore of the Azov Sea, from Taganrog to Mariupol, and then probably to Berdiansk and Melitopol? When such railroad might be ready?
1.) Never have any kind of doubts about the following: railway = huge advantage for the VSRF (i.e. the Russians).
....especially at the time many of Ukrainian brigades are only having about 50% of 'soft-skin' vehicles they would actually need, like right now. There are photos and videos of ZSU troops using wheelbarrows to haul ammo for kilometres to the frontline. That's really 'not funny'.
At the time troops at foremost positions depend on timely provision of ammo and spares while facing literal 'hordes' of Russians, this is crucial.
2.) Probably this winter. AFAIK, the VSRF has two of its 10-12 railway brigades involved.
Nov 5, 2023·edited Nov 5, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Ukraine's Stratcom Center reported that the 128th Mtn Bde incident involved an Iskander; losing assembled infantry to LPGM is quite embarrassing. Mind you, this is pretty much what Russia was trying to accomplish in the Hroza missile attack, so blundering this way after that event is doubly embarrassing.
At some point we have to come to terms with the institutional weaknesses of the ZSU and the lack of training among the mass of soldiers. Ukraine received an absolutely adequate provision of ordnance to conduct ONE strategic offensive. The problem, as *so many* people have pointed out over and over, was that the level of quality and motivation among UFOR officers and troops is a little, but not substantially, better than the RuFOR average. And against a well-prepared and coordinated defense, one needs a lot more than a little.
2 months of training for conscripts (the reported average in the ZSU) is good enough for TDF militias a year ago, but it's not adequate for a shock corps. Several days of NATO "combined arms" training at the company or battalion level - what was actually provided to the "Western-equipped brigades" - was always going to be a joke on top of that. The Soviets knew plenty about combined arms. The Russians, for all their flaws, have been demonstrating better combined arms around Avdiivka than the Ukrainians almost ever have throughout the war. That Ukraine does not have the capacity to conduct proper wartime instruction to staff and enlisted in some form of iterated Soviet doctrine is exactly the glaring problem that NATO should have united in addressing 1.5 years ago. If one must invent some sort of dolchstosslegende, take it from that angle, not the myth that Ukraine was overall starved of equipment.
The proof is in the pudding. Throughout the war, the most rigorous casualty estimates keep putting the loss ratio in personnel between UFOR and RuFOR at around 1.5x in the former's favor, and perhaps the reverse when UFOR is attacking. But even before the summer campaign, we *knew*, could observe, that Russia and Ukraine typically converged on the same tactics and strategies - albeit Ukraine has much higher loss sensitivity and cautiousness. Similar militaries under similar constraints have achieved similar results, and we should fear that Ukraine will never succeed unless we identify what they truly need most. Getting that right matters for more than scoring points on the Internet.
Different results require a fundamental transformation of the responsible institutions. Not reinforcing past failure.
All this sounds persuasively. Could you please explain to the layman why the USA and European powers had not invested in gun/howitzers and shell production after all? If Ukraine were to be handed over, say, 1000+ M777, form several dozens artillery brigades and receive 5-6 mln modern projectiles per year – that would make it possible for it to steadily move the front line the same way that Russians did last year in Severodonetsk, wouldn’t it? Ukraine has the means to do all necessary logistics, has enough fpv drones to find targets. And people are more willingly drafted to artillery units than to infantry ones.
I am not sure I can explain why Western powers have not invested in artillery. It is an interesting question. There are probably a host of reasons, ranging from stupidity, bueraucratic inertia, limited understanding If the situation... but one underlying reason I think is a peace mind set. Western powers didnt really believe in such big conflicts in Europe. Fir decades. Add to that a belief in the superiority of our weapons, the (strange) belief that wars would be won quickly and the belief that a big war would end up in a nucklear exchange you have a mental Prison you do not easily break out of. Doing what you suggest would be such a break out, and Western powers struggle with that adaption.
There are even manufacturers in North Korea I have heard. So I am not disagreeing. But someone needs to sign that check. Thats were the issues I mention come into play. And national interests. (We want it to be our grenades produced by ourselves.. we dont want to..). But yes, I think strategic. And that might be wrong. I only hope it gets fixed.
It's not just money, as money isn't put into a replicator machine to churn out products. There is a whole supply chain of components and subcomponents to even artillery shells, particularly explosive filler, that needs to be activated horizontally (that is, production is not integrated in vertical monopolies). There are physical limits to what can be achieved in a short time frame - which is of course why long-term planning is so important in military strategy.
And literally every country might benefit from that.
Norway can load Kongsberg to full capasity, Sweden can load SAAB and so on. Even putting all existing production to full speed already can benefit a lot. But I dont know,maybe tgey are already at full speed
I am not disagreeing with your analysis, mainly trying to reflect on your questions. Money isnt «just», but Otherwise agree. There is a need to ramp up production. Nammo which would be the Norwegian manufacturer (Kongsberg make these air defense systems) is a Max capacity. In my opinion that problem could be circumvented If we accepted to use from our stockpiles. Which we will not. But overall in Europe I think we have the possibility to do this quickly. Especially If we take into account how much weekenden the Russians are for figthing another war. But this is where the mind set issues set in.
1) extend the range of the weapon ( to 500, 1000 km )
2) give Ukraine some old staff, ready to be utilized ( like US stores something in a desert storage from 70th )
Middle term
1) increase production "a little bit" ( Ukraine used 1-5 mil of 155 mm ammo, so it shouldbe produced anyway.
General: I think Ukraine needs more numbers then quality ( 20 super cool rockers can destroy 20 helicopters max, but 1000 "old ammo from 70th can destroy 100, even if its 10 times less effective ( kill ratio 10% instead of 90% ).
So increase production of 155mm shells should be super easy for any factory ( its 30 countries, each produces 10 000 - its already 3 mil )
They have invested to an extent. They haven't rushed contracting the way they would if they were engaged in total war directly, which is of course the nub here. Thus major increases in production are broadly expected only by 2025, but the industrial work is being carried out to that end.
The production levels you're discussing would never have been physically possible under any circumstances before like 2026, however, if that. Currently IIRC global 155mm production should reach 2-3 million by that year.
Trying to reproduce Russian artillery doctrine under conditions of inventory superiority as a means to grinding forward the frontline is not a great idea, because the Russians actually saw very weak success with this approach. Infantry always get the final say, and blind arty spam cannot supersede action on the ground. It would also contribute to the long-term devastation and debilitation of Ukraine's natural and built environment (recall France's "zone rouge").
Intelligence and awareness is more useful to militaries now than brute force, as Israel is also proving inadvertently. More artillery in better-trained brigades would be most useful in conjunction with and support of fully-trained assault corps, so that the latter could achieve overwhelming fire support to suppress enemy artillery, drones, ATGMs, command centers, assembly points, and so on in order to suppress the enemy's ability to react and permit mobile breakthroughs of the forward defenses. Remember that UFOR was in fact able to achieve slight fires superiority over RuFOR in the south during the summer. (One problem going forward is that both sides are partially replacing traditional artillery with high-reaction waves of FPV drones, the only counter to which is either uncommon EW systems that can self-harm, and finding and striking drone teams faster than they can operate.)
Because USA and Europeans were partying for the last 30 years.
If there was any war, it was far, far away, and somebody else's problem. This included own armed forces, too: they were professionalised, and thus 'it's own' problem, not 'ours'.
Heavy industry was outsourced for higher profits (and that already back in the 1990s), and the oligarchy cashing from that.
....the same game of 'bread and games' like since the times of the Roman Empire....
Why didn’t the United States provide ATACMS missiles, which pushed back the KA-52 helicopters, or didn’t provide several Patriot systems to cover the sky from the Su-35.
Thanks for the update Tom. Hopefully they ban such decoration ceremonies at or near the frontlines. It also goes to show there are Russian moles who shared the information, but it was a silly thing to do in the first place. I'm also hearing some negative commentary about General Syrski from a twitter account thats been critical of Ukrainian officers https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1720814139600232737?s=20. I wonder if its just the bias of the account (they've always picked on Gen Syrski)or this is the actual sentiment amongst junior officers and rank and file. Or its just the usual criticism that is found in all corporations? Otherwise it looks like Ukraine is really doing best with what they have. The losses the Russians have suffered are shocking.
thanks for sharing, surely there needs to be some shake ups. A lot of people have problems with him. I wonder why Gen Zabrodskyi doesn't get higher promotions since he's now back into active duty.
The Ukrainian army is still very similar to the Soviet army, and we are in many ways similar to the Russian army. It’s infuriating that in the 10th year of the war we still have people who gather military personnel for a holiday to present awards. Earlier, the Russians fired missiles at funerals in Pervomaisky, Grozovoy, Chernigov, Desna and Yavorovsky training ground (Lviv region). But we don’t learn anything and we still laugh at the Russians (Makeevka). They killed the best and most motivated officers and soldiers. These meetings must be stopped, although what am I talking about, Syrsky himself awarded the fighters that day. I would like to write a lot of bad words about those who make decisions, but this will not change anything... Eternal memory to the dead. Heroes do not die.
Tom, are you sure about that counteroffensive near Krasnomikhailovka? It was in a Russian telegram channel of the Kuban (not Cuban) artillerists (which is not a major source of info) but many OSINTs were dismissive of it. It looked to be too much behind the Russian lines. Could have been an old clip.
Alas your report is in fact the only optimistic conclusion about the course of the war. Stupid political games in the USA and constant lamentation about dwarf operations in Israel leave little place for news from the battlefield in Ukraine. But nevertheless ZSU was able again to strike successfully the military plant in Kerch. Glory to ZSU!
UKraine has the high ground on the other bank with up to 50Km of flat ground in front of them so should be able to suppress Russian artillery assuming they have the munitions.
Thank you Tom for getting back on the Ukraine track with neither side advancing it can not be easy to pull out interesting facts.
I am sorry and I know it is my failing but I really cannot read about the never ending tragedy in Israel, it is just so frustrating to know there are many people on both sides who want to lead peaceful productive lives but are led to slaughter by their leaders. Looking at the Facebook "likes" it seems I am not alone.
If counter battery fire would be just a question of enough ammo, then there would be no Russian arty now. Self propelled artillery is hard to suppress when doing shoot and scoot. It must be spotted before arriving to the place to have a possibility to hit it. And towed artillery may use prepared dugouts to minimize impact of counter battery fire.
BTW. your offtopic mention of Israel - they leaders do not live in vacuum, they are supported of a pretty big part (maybe even majority) of their nations.
Similarly for Russia and Putin - the bloody war continues only because a big part (maybe even majority) of the Russian society agrees with Putin. They maybe do not support the bloody war as it is now, but they agree with the occupation of Ukraine. And that's the reason, why they do not protest against Putin (and his war).
At the same time we have all these undisputed images of burnt vehicles near Avdiivka and uncollected corpses on the ground. So, it is hard to think that Russian casualties are dropping.
Mikael Valtersson was expelled from his right-wing populist party in Sweden for extremism. He has, among other things, written that Hitler was his favorite person in history. From the start of the war, he has presented himself as impartial while being pro-Russian. I would just ignore him.
Thanks for the update, Tom. I’m deprived of words about the 128th incident. It’s a criminal thing and some head had to roll... but seems it “after the war”, shame!
And what about the RuZZians, with his (own troops) meat grinder tactics with null advances?
The constantly claim for the promised ammo/equipment for Ukraine had to be, by now, a roar. But, hey, army of Angels are in the March, so all things Ukrainian are second rate news...
No one is immune to making mistakes. It was another black day in Ukraine. But the good news can help in that moments. The chuvash battalion was struck with Himars. Rumors says 120 killed and wounded.
Thank for the update, this was in many ways a relief. Except that 128th incident that is. Overall it seems like the situation now is pretty stable except maybe Dnipro area. At least as long as both sides continue to get enough materiale, munitions included. Which is a big If of course.
Thanks Tom. I genuinely hoped that the rumours about th 128th were not true. Now that you confirmed them, i am speechless. A firing squad is not enough. I am glad Avdiivka holds.
There are rumours that Syrskyi was the mind behind bakhmut and now behind the southern offensive. Do you know if:
1. It's true.
2. He will be dismissed or moved.
3. How much political interference there is in the ZSU?
Yermak and Syrski are joined at the hip the way I've seen them discussed over the past year.
Might be telling that Zaluzhny's recent interview was apparently not authorized politically.
People say it's bureaucratic interference https://dou.ua/forums/topic/46064/
The ZSU is regulated by a huge codex of Soviet-time laws. In the first weeks of the war the commanders were struggling with the shock and everyone did what one considered to be the most efficient in the ongoing situation. After months of war the old management started to ensure the old laws which paralyze the initiative and cause everyone to obey the most stupid orders under the threat of 5+ years in prison.
Syrskyi is russian and all his relatives now reside in rusia. Knowing all these precautions he is still conmmander in ZSU
I have no doubt about his patriotism. However, a few heads at the top must roll and if he was responsible, he must be relieved. That doesn't, at least it shouldn't, mean the end of his military career. It just means moving to a lower level or at least different task and showing improvement before considering promoting him back.
128... Это ужасная новость.
Thanks
Thank you, Tom!
Two questions about logistics:
1. I heard an opinion that Russians are pinning their hopes in Avdeevka on mud season, as up until now ZSU was mostly relying on dirt roads to supply the troops there. Contrary, VSRF has a good railhead in Donetsk, and plenty of short paved roads from there to the frontline.
How crucial this might be?
2. What do you know about a new railroad the Russians are supposedly building along the shore of the Azov Sea, from Taganrog to Mariupol, and then probably to Berdiansk and Melitopol? When such railroad might be ready?
1.) Never have any kind of doubts about the following: railway = huge advantage for the VSRF (i.e. the Russians).
....especially at the time many of Ukrainian brigades are only having about 50% of 'soft-skin' vehicles they would actually need, like right now. There are photos and videos of ZSU troops using wheelbarrows to haul ammo for kilometres to the frontline. That's really 'not funny'.
At the time troops at foremost positions depend on timely provision of ammo and spares while facing literal 'hordes' of Russians, this is crucial.
2.) Probably this winter. AFAIK, the VSRF has two of its 10-12 railway brigades involved.
Can anyone say, ghost of Brusilov Offensive?
Ukraine's Stratcom Center reported that the 128th Mtn Bde incident involved an Iskander; losing assembled infantry to LPGM is quite embarrassing. Mind you, this is pretty much what Russia was trying to accomplish in the Hroza missile attack, so blundering this way after that event is doubly embarrassing.
At some point we have to come to terms with the institutional weaknesses of the ZSU and the lack of training among the mass of soldiers. Ukraine received an absolutely adequate provision of ordnance to conduct ONE strategic offensive. The problem, as *so many* people have pointed out over and over, was that the level of quality and motivation among UFOR officers and troops is a little, but not substantially, better than the RuFOR average. And against a well-prepared and coordinated defense, one needs a lot more than a little.
2 months of training for conscripts (the reported average in the ZSU) is good enough for TDF militias a year ago, but it's not adequate for a shock corps. Several days of NATO "combined arms" training at the company or battalion level - what was actually provided to the "Western-equipped brigades" - was always going to be a joke on top of that. The Soviets knew plenty about combined arms. The Russians, for all their flaws, have been demonstrating better combined arms around Avdiivka than the Ukrainians almost ever have throughout the war. That Ukraine does not have the capacity to conduct proper wartime instruction to staff and enlisted in some form of iterated Soviet doctrine is exactly the glaring problem that NATO should have united in addressing 1.5 years ago. If one must invent some sort of dolchstosslegende, take it from that angle, not the myth that Ukraine was overall starved of equipment.
The proof is in the pudding. Throughout the war, the most rigorous casualty estimates keep putting the loss ratio in personnel between UFOR and RuFOR at around 1.5x in the former's favor, and perhaps the reverse when UFOR is attacking. But even before the summer campaign, we *knew*, could observe, that Russia and Ukraine typically converged on the same tactics and strategies - albeit Ukraine has much higher loss sensitivity and cautiousness. Similar militaries under similar constraints have achieved similar results, and we should fear that Ukraine will never succeed unless we identify what they truly need most. Getting that right matters for more than scoring points on the Internet.
Different results require a fundamental transformation of the responsible institutions. Not reinforcing past failure.
All this sounds persuasively. Could you please explain to the layman why the USA and European powers had not invested in gun/howitzers and shell production after all? If Ukraine were to be handed over, say, 1000+ M777, form several dozens artillery brigades and receive 5-6 mln modern projectiles per year – that would make it possible for it to steadily move the front line the same way that Russians did last year in Severodonetsk, wouldn’t it? Ukraine has the means to do all necessary logistics, has enough fpv drones to find targets. And people are more willingly drafted to artillery units than to infantry ones.
I am not sure I can explain why Western powers have not invested in artillery. It is an interesting question. There are probably a host of reasons, ranging from stupidity, bueraucratic inertia, limited understanding If the situation... but one underlying reason I think is a peace mind set. Western powers didnt really believe in such big conflicts in Europe. Fir decades. Add to that a belief in the superiority of our weapons, the (strange) belief that wars would be won quickly and the belief that a big war would end up in a nucklear exchange you have a mental Prison you do not easily break out of. Doing what you suggest would be such a break out, and Western powers struggle with that adaption.
You think very strategic.
Investing in ammo needs just 5 bln dedicated to it. Nothing more.
There are a lot of producers from S. Korea to Australia who will deliver you any amount, if you give them 5 bln.
You dont need to have any strategy in mind for this. Just sign the bill
There are even manufacturers in North Korea I have heard. So I am not disagreeing. But someone needs to sign that check. Thats were the issues I mention come into play. And national interests. (We want it to be our grenades produced by ourselves.. we dont want to..). But yes, I think strategic. And that might be wrong. I only hope it gets fixed.
In any of the western countries there are local producers who can produce you any amount, just sign the bill.
Example, in Germany they produce 3-5 mil cars a year.
Can they produce 3-5 mil 155mm shells ( car is so complicated compare to simple metall tube with powder ).
I guess Germany alone can produce 3-5 mil a month.
Its just a money question.
It's not just money, as money isn't put into a replicator machine to churn out products. There is a whole supply chain of components and subcomponents to even artillery shells, particularly explosive filler, that needs to be activated horizontally (that is, production is not integrated in vertical monopolies). There are physical limits to what can be achieved in a short time frame - which is of course why long-term planning is so important in military strategy.
And literally every country might benefit from that.
Norway can load Kongsberg to full capasity, Sweden can load SAAB and so on. Even putting all existing production to full speed already can benefit a lot. But I dont know,maybe tgey are already at full speed
I am not disagreeing with your analysis, mainly trying to reflect on your questions. Money isnt «just», but Otherwise agree. There is a need to ramp up production. Nammo which would be the Norwegian manufacturer (Kongsberg make these air defense systems) is a Max capacity. In my opinion that problem could be circumvented If we accepted to use from our stockpiles. Which we will not. But overall in Europe I think we have the possibility to do this quickly. Especially If we take into account how much weekenden the Russians are for figthing another war. But this is where the mind set issues set in.
Easy win is to
1) extend the range of the weapon ( to 500, 1000 km )
2) give Ukraine some old staff, ready to be utilized ( like US stores something in a desert storage from 70th )
Middle term
1) increase production "a little bit" ( Ukraine used 1-5 mil of 155 mm ammo, so it shouldbe produced anyway.
General: I think Ukraine needs more numbers then quality ( 20 super cool rockers can destroy 20 helicopters max, but 1000 "old ammo from 70th can destroy 100, even if its 10 times less effective ( kill ratio 10% instead of 90% ).
So increase production of 155mm shells should be super easy for any factory ( its 30 countries, each produces 10 000 - its already 3 mil )
They have invested to an extent. They haven't rushed contracting the way they would if they were engaged in total war directly, which is of course the nub here. Thus major increases in production are broadly expected only by 2025, but the industrial work is being carried out to that end.
The production levels you're discussing would never have been physically possible under any circumstances before like 2026, however, if that. Currently IIRC global 155mm production should reach 2-3 million by that year.
Trying to reproduce Russian artillery doctrine under conditions of inventory superiority as a means to grinding forward the frontline is not a great idea, because the Russians actually saw very weak success with this approach. Infantry always get the final say, and blind arty spam cannot supersede action on the ground. It would also contribute to the long-term devastation and debilitation of Ukraine's natural and built environment (recall France's "zone rouge").
Intelligence and awareness is more useful to militaries now than brute force, as Israel is also proving inadvertently. More artillery in better-trained brigades would be most useful in conjunction with and support of fully-trained assault corps, so that the latter could achieve overwhelming fire support to suppress enemy artillery, drones, ATGMs, command centers, assembly points, and so on in order to suppress the enemy's ability to react and permit mobile breakthroughs of the forward defenses. Remember that UFOR was in fact able to achieve slight fires superiority over RuFOR in the south during the summer. (One problem going forward is that both sides are partially replacing traditional artillery with high-reaction waves of FPV drones, the only counter to which is either uncommon EW systems that can self-harm, and finding and striking drone teams faster than they can operate.)
Because USA and Europeans were partying for the last 30 years.
If there was any war, it was far, far away, and somebody else's problem. This included own armed forces, too: they were professionalised, and thus 'it's own' problem, not 'ours'.
Heavy industry was outsourced for higher profits (and that already back in the 1990s), and the oligarchy cashing from that.
....the same game of 'bread and games' like since the times of the Roman Empire....
Why didn’t the United States provide ATACMS missiles, which pushed back the KA-52 helicopters, or didn’t provide several Patriot systems to cover the sky from the Su-35.
Empty promises and suggestions of negotiations is all that can be heard now ((((
Thanks for the update Tom. Hopefully they ban such decoration ceremonies at or near the frontlines. It also goes to show there are Russian moles who shared the information, but it was a silly thing to do in the first place. I'm also hearing some negative commentary about General Syrski from a twitter account thats been critical of Ukrainian officers https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1720814139600232737?s=20. I wonder if its just the bias of the account (they've always picked on Gen Syrski)or this is the actual sentiment amongst junior officers and rank and file. Or its just the usual criticism that is found in all corporations? Otherwise it looks like Ukraine is really doing best with what they have. The losses the Russians have suffered are shocking.
This is Syrskyi's background back from 2015.
http://peremoga.com.ua/vijna/1514/
thanks for sharing, surely there needs to be some shake ups. A lot of people have problems with him. I wonder why Gen Zabrodskyi doesn't get higher promotions since he's now back into active duty.
One is simply NOT, NOT, under no circumstances, NEVER, organising such 'parties' within 100km of the frontline.
That's plain stupidity.
The Ukrainian army is still very similar to the Soviet army, and we are in many ways similar to the Russian army. It’s infuriating that in the 10th year of the war we still have people who gather military personnel for a holiday to present awards. Earlier, the Russians fired missiles at funerals in Pervomaisky, Grozovoy, Chernigov, Desna and Yavorovsky training ground (Lviv region). But we don’t learn anything and we still laugh at the Russians (Makeevka). They killed the best and most motivated officers and soldiers. These meetings must be stopped, although what am I talking about, Syrsky himself awarded the fighters that day. I would like to write a lot of bad words about those who make decisions, but this will not change anything... Eternal memory to the dead. Heroes do not die.
Tom, are you sure about that counteroffensive near Krasnomikhailovka? It was in a Russian telegram channel of the Kuban (not Cuban) artillerists (which is not a major source of info) but many OSINTs were dismissive of it. It looked to be too much behind the Russian lines. Could have been an old clip.
Have seen several videos. Not really a 'counteroffensive': rather a disrupting attack at local level.
Alas your report is in fact the only optimistic conclusion about the course of the war. Stupid political games in the USA and constant lamentation about dwarf operations in Israel leave little place for news from the battlefield in Ukraine. But nevertheless ZSU was able again to strike successfully the military plant in Kerch. Glory to ZSU!
I've read that ZSU has also troubles on the left side of Dnipro - every bigger group is shelled by arty and bombarded from aircraft immediately.
UKraine has the high ground on the other bank with up to 50Km of flat ground in front of them so should be able to suppress Russian artillery assuming they have the munitions.
Thank you Tom for getting back on the Ukraine track with neither side advancing it can not be easy to pull out interesting facts.
I am sorry and I know it is my failing but I really cannot read about the never ending tragedy in Israel, it is just so frustrating to know there are many people on both sides who want to lead peaceful productive lives but are led to slaughter by their leaders. Looking at the Facebook "likes" it seems I am not alone.
If counter battery fire would be just a question of enough ammo, then there would be no Russian arty now. Self propelled artillery is hard to suppress when doing shoot and scoot. It must be spotted before arriving to the place to have a possibility to hit it. And towed artillery may use prepared dugouts to minimize impact of counter battery fire.
First Ukrainian Armored Vehicles Reported Crossing Dnipro River
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23779?fbclid=IwAR1RxKI13hSi98KW6z8XG36Tuu1bm_lbHmMkQCEb-zc4B7tAMACgwOzQAd8
Seems to be getting serious......
BTW. your offtopic mention of Israel - they leaders do not live in vacuum, they are supported of a pretty big part (maybe even majority) of their nations.
Similarly for Russia and Putin - the bloody war continues only because a big part (maybe even majority) of the Russian society agrees with Putin. They maybe do not support the bloody war as it is now, but they agree with the occupation of Ukraine. And that's the reason, why they do not protest against Putin (and his war).
Dear Tom, it's good to read not-so-depressing report (minus 128th incident). As I read all kinds of stuff, yesterday I became severely distressed after reading https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1720531438074794447 and https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1720585240412930355
Could it be that the drop in the number of Russian casualties reported (second link above) is just an artefact of tighter Russian control over social media since around March (along the lines of https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/12/russia-social-media-putin-opposition/)?
At the same time we have all these undisputed images of burnt vehicles near Avdiivka and uncollected corpses on the ground. So, it is hard to think that Russian casualties are dropping.
Mikael Valtersson was expelled from his right-wing populist party in Sweden for extremism. He has, among other things, written that Hitler was his favorite person in history. From the start of the war, he has presented himself as impartial while being pro-Russian. I would just ignore him.
Thank you for this information, I didn't know that!
Thanks for the update, Tom. I’m deprived of words about the 128th incident. It’s a criminal thing and some head had to roll... but seems it “after the war”, shame!
And what about the RuZZians, with his (own troops) meat grinder tactics with null advances?
The constantly claim for the promised ammo/equipment for Ukraine had to be, by now, a roar. But, hey, army of Angels are in the March, so all things Ukrainian are second rate news...
No one is immune to making mistakes. It was another black day in Ukraine. But the good news can help in that moments. The chuvash battalion was struck with Himars. Rumors says 120 killed and wounded.
Thank for the update, this was in many ways a relief. Except that 128th incident that is. Overall it seems like the situation now is pretty stable except maybe Dnipro area. At least as long as both sides continue to get enough materiale, munitions included. Which is a big If of course.