Very nice report as usual (of course, if one disregard a cliche of Russians dying in hundreds and "wave" attacks. But that's a part of the "game," I realise and accept this exaggeration). Otherwise, indeed the best overview available in open sources.
From my side, I would like to complete with the subject Tom partially mentioned - Isksnder ballistic missiles strikes. It is not a game changer yet but already on par with ATACAMs strikes, especially considering it's "speciality" to strike tactically (at least one Himars and one M270 were destroyed last weeks). But the main prey was PSU. At least two Flankers, one Mig-29, one Mi-24, a couple of S-300 batteries were smashed. Needless to say, none of Iskanders were downed. Most of strikes were taped by RU unchallenged drones that freely get far from frontline. Considering increasing production of these missiles, UA forces will face challenging issues.
Just out of curisoty. You deny the Russian wave attack, be it either mechanised wave or human wave. I hope we can agree to the fact that such attacks historically has been part of Russian warfare. So they have a tradition of it. Now all reports I have read, including trandcripts of Russian soldiers testemony have claimed that this sort if attacks have tanken place in this war as well. Further I think most agree that the fall of Bakhmut happened after several such attacks. Of course I understand that there is a lot of repetion here, some source claims this a was used, fire other picks it etc. but at least it is reported by several sources. Also we hear from several other sources that Russia is seriously lacking in vehicles to support its troops. But still everybody reports that they are attacking . But not «human Wales»? You consustently denies that such attacks take place. My question to you then is: What data would you need to change your mind?
Ok. Now meat wave attacks in 2024. You mat or may not be right. But what evidence would be necessary to convince you that this takes place in 2024? Iskander attacks are unfortunately very real.
It’s as if Kremlin are trying one great all out push across all fronts, in desperation seeing as their opponent is weakening a bit, or that its do or die, for the possibility of any negotiation
It is always a pleasure to read your analyses, and they are an invaluable help in understanding what is happening and what will happen in Ukraine. Thank you.
I have a question about Luhansk: is it being reclaimed by the Ukrainians? I ask this because I have friends in a unit of Latinos belonging to the 66th Mechanized Brigade, who are being deployed north of Luhansk, more than 150 km from their base, and I can't find anything to justify this movement. These soldiers do not have artillery support, heavy weapons, and don't even know where the nearest allied troops are. What are they dying for there is a complete mystery to me.
up front: the 66th is a little-known, but decent unit. I wouldn't describe it as 'crack', but it's combat-experienced- and successful unit (see how well they smashed Russian attacks in the last autumn), and I've never heard about any kind of complaints about its command staff.
Now, re. Luhansk: Luhansk is an Oblast (Province, if you like, or District) of Ukraine. It's a part of Ukraine. In 2014, the Russians invaded for the first time and seized about a third of it: the southern third, including the city of Luhansk, to be precise.
In February-March 2022, the Russians then invaded the northern two thirds of this oblast, too, and - in the course of a series of offensives that went on until late June, captured something like 90-95% of Luhansk.
In September 2022, around the time Pudding anschluss-ed Luhansk (plus Donetsk, plus Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson Oblast) to Russia, the Ukrainian launched their counteroffensive. this has recovered all of eastern Kharkiv, but, sadly, run out of steam while on approaches to Svatove and Kremina (two towns in western Luhansk).
That's where the frontlines are 'frozen' ever since. With other words: the Russians are still holding over 90% of Luhansk, and nope: presently, it does not look like Ukrainians might run another offensive that would liberate more of Luhansk.
Shouldn't mean they aren't going to try, though.
Since around October 2022 - when it was one of first units to cross the Oskil River - the 66th Brigade is deployed and fighting along the (administrative) border between (eastern) Kharkiv and (western) Luhansk. That's why the people you know have been sent to the approximate area of Borove (and from there to the frontlines that are further east, partially inside the Luhansk Oblast).
Means: they've not been lied to.
As for why the ZSU moved them there: if they are assigned to the 66th, they belong being sent to the frontline where the 66th is deployed. It's that simple in the armed forces, no matter where. And, if I'm to ask: if they are a unit assigned to the 66th, for them it's always better to serve while assigned to that brigade, than being 'cross-assigned' to any other brigade (that's always a recipe for problems).
Now, sadly, after two years of intensive fighting, the 66th is poorly equipped. Has got only some M113s, few 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers calibre 122mm, and few old ZSU-23-4 Shilkas (self-propelled anti-aircraft guns calibre 23mm). That's why it's got so little artillery support.
That said, the 66th is not alone. On its northern flank are the 3rd Assault- and the 107th Territorial Defence Brigades, and on its southern flank is an entire 'bunch' of good ZSU units (like the 4th Rapid-Reaction Brigade of the National Guard, which is one of very few NATO-certified Ukrainian units). And they are - as necessary and as possible - supported by the 40th Artillery Brigade, plus several UAV-units.
With other words: they're neither alone, nor lost, or going to die for nothing (BTW, in Europe, we hear rarely about them, but due to my business contacts, I do get to hear a lots of good things about 'Latinos' - especially Brazilians, and also people from few other nations - serving with the ZSU, too. Thus, I think they're going to be in good company.)
Again: principal problem is that the 66th is a little-known unit. The staff is not very good in English language, many of troops are from the occupied Donetsk, and others are reservists: simple, poor people - without money for fancy cameras, night visors or similar stuff. Thus, we rarely hear about them in the social media. But, they are good and friendly people, and fighting well, too. BTW, you can follow the unit on its official FB-page, for example:
Thanks for all this useful information. It's hard to get it elsewhere.
Unfortunately, language barrier(s) are taking its toll against the Latino's troops at the 3rd Batallion, 66th Mech Brigade. Most of them don't speak English but Spanish or Portuguese. Lack of communication erodes their trust in orders and officers and negatively impacts their combat performance.
I've details about what's happening there now, but I think is no point to make them public. However, I'm happy to share these details with you if you think it might be positive in any way.
Thanks for the update. A little depressing this time, after some more positive reports some week. Interesting question about anti-aircraft measures. I think we easily farget lessons learned and thus has to re-learn. But yes, flying obstacles should Work and should be very cheap, regarding the transfer of airnen to the infantery I guess the guy was just covering his ass. At least I hope so. But well, the Ukrainians probably have their share of ignorant and idiot leaders as well.
We certainly have our share of ignorant and idiot leaders, and that share is, unfortunately, large enough.
I was thinking about flying obstacles for a while - they could be used to cover common routes of cruise missiles and drones, but since they often change routes, that would probably require too much investment. And I'm not sure about their efficiency. It would be nice if someone could share some info on their practical usage after 1939-45.
That's one of points: actually, they're not changing their routes at all. Especially not the one between Kherson (city) and Kryvyi Rih, or the one south of Odesa.
Because - and just like Iraqi Mirage-pilots while operating over the Persian Gulf, back during the times of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s - that's 'too much work with re-programming routes'.
Somewhere in the Ukrainian military their versions of Grant, Sherman, Upton, Patton, Jackson, Clarke, Bradley, and Eisenhower are doing their best and hopefully surviving, while the current crops of McClellands, Burnsides, Johnsons, Fredendalls are still in the field.
The Ukrainian people tried to change the bureaucracy and the government management, but Pudding invaded in Ukraine. He is trying hard to stop changes in Ukraine to a better way. He sponsored many political parties and separate members of the Ukrainian parliament to sabotage any changes. 24 February 2022 Ukraine was in the same conditions as the country was on 21 November 2013 when the Euromaidan has started.
I hope the people like "Tavr" Krotevich, like "Redis" Prokopenko, and like other people with a firm Ukrainian dream will change the situation in a better way. They are growing in their job titles.
Sure thing, it was Putin's fault, that Saakashvlili, who gave a very strong blow to corruption in Georgia, failed to do the same in Ukraine, while he was a governor of Odessa region.
It is Ukraine’s fault, of course. You insinuate the better for Ukraine because the Russians want to destroy all of Ukraine ? State, nation, identity ? As has been written in several texts by the fucking killer and his idéologues. Have you ever tried to get out of the postSoviet Russian swamp and embrace being an ex-Sovietrepublic ? This is a very long and deadly road. The fucking Russians will not allow it and the fucking West neither. Three hundred years of occupation by the Russian and Soviet dump leaves deep structural caracteristics. Read the opinion polls published by the Levada Center. They show very well how the Russians as citizens think today. The social pact in Russia : terror, violence and corruption works very well. Read the opinion polls made in Ukraine : this is another nation with different ambitions and a different vision of the life they want to live, the state they want to build. Their brains function while facing a brutal invasion on a daily basis.
In some things you are right, in some you are too idealistic. Don't overestimate brains of any nation, it's just a matter of brainwashing/propaganda by public media and similar things. Most of people can't think independently, like it or not. Many elections won emotionally, not rationally.
As per Ukraine (my imho), since 1991 it f..cked up all the great opportunities given. Even in 2014 instead of saying "damn, get your Crimea and Donetsk, we will build new Berlin war and will make a new state". What UA authorities did instead? Started senseless war of attrition with puppet republics of Donetsk&Luhansk, built army and were preparing for the war with Russia. The was a great chance to get rid of some absolutely pro-Russian territories and commence a new life (setting example to neiugbours, first of all to Russians themselves). Should I mention allmighty corruption all over Ukraine?
Even during the war UA side did everything wrong (I am not speaking about military actions here): plunged into ultimate Russophobia instead of putting forward a slogan like "we are fighting for you freedom too against a dictator", senseless killing of prisoners (see recent revelation https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/world/europe/ukraine-surrendering-russians-killed.html
), idiotic shootings at civilians in Donetsk and Belgorod, and etc. Just see what UA authorities doing at their own people: RU TG channels are full of videos (new ones being revealed every day) from Ukraine how UA recruiters capture ordinary people from the streets to army in the best tradition of Frederich the Great times: beating, arresting, sometimes shooting and similar nasty ways. People are running away, drowning in the border rivers, dressing women clothes, and etc.
In other words, UA leaders are trying to "outMordor Mordor" what makes Moscow laughs. And in the same time the kids of UA elite are biding their time in Nice and Monaco (also many videos available). All above give rather gloomy prospects of Ukraine future. The painful reality is the following: the best part of UA male youth is dying or already dead at front, the most pretty UA female part of youth gone abroad for good, to say nothing about millions of active people that ran away from the war to Europe, US and...to Russia, of course.
P.S. 300 years of occupation? Gimme a break. Current Ukraine was made by the Soviets of, at least, 4 historically not-related parts (to say nothing about Crimea). And I admit that it was current war that made the nation more or less created. Still, want to remind that each fifth perished UA soldier is ethnic Russian, while roughly each 8th deceased Russian soldier is ethnic Ukranian.
Just one comment on your text which shows on what Russian breast you nurture yourself.. How comes you think that the Eastern Ukrainian territories invaded by Russia in 2013-2014 were ProRussian ? Have you ever consulted the opinion polls up to 2014 in these territories ? They contradict your statements. And I am not talking about the referendum and its results in favour of Ukrainian indépendance. Even on the Crimean peninsula and especially in Sevastopol. It is a Russian narrative constructed and spread by the Russians that the Ukrainians in these territories are Prorussian. Do not repeat it. Even Girkin had to admit that he could not mobilize more than 100 « separatists ». Hundredthousands of the Ukrainians fled the Russian occupation and went to live in Kherson and Kharkiv. I am not commenting your other désinformation. Russian channels ….
Erm... Pudding is doing his utmost to subvert Ukraine - at least since 2009, probably since earlier. The country - and its pluralism - are a literal 'thorn in his side', all the while, and whether you like that, or not. So much so, he's just constructed a new, 79th version of reasons for his idiotic invasion: survival of Russia.
....as if all of Russia can't survive without controlling Ukraine?
Oh bother. Not news we want to hear, but if it's the truth, we must. Serious Western support and internal reform must both happen in tandem. One thing I do not count on though - China coming to the party. They seem to have decided firmly that they don't want a transition of power in Russia at the moment. Really, this is a side of the war that doesn't get enough attention - China must ultimately be put in a position where letting Putin fall is more preferable to the alternative.
Somehow, my April-May battlefront anxiety and depression is back... What seems to be easy lessons learnt, and for a few weeks indeed seems to have been applied by the AFU, are coming back again...
Так. Там же не одне суцільне поле, щоб за один раз вигоріти. Там поля пшениціі сухої, соняшника зеленого. Там позиції. По ним прилітає, поля горять. То одне займеться, то інше.
I personally can't blame Zelensky for the start of the war because he worked for peace with Russia. Germany and France convinced him there would not be a war.
Obviously, Zelensky proved to be naive, but the problem is that afterwards, he gave power to too many corrupt and seemingly incompetent individuals like Ermag. I read that Sodol is his person.
These total idiots are too obsessed with power and do not realize there will be none if Russia wins. Even before the counteroffensive, it was clear that the ZSU needed better command and leadership, but too much time was wasted. Of course, the failure of the counteroffensive was swiftly blamed on the West, and although it was true that support was lacking, Zaluzhny refused to follow the plan and the brigades' coordination was terrible. One tank stopping an entire mechanized assault was the final nail in the coffin for me.
Obviously, the whole offensive was poorly planned and organized. They even blamed the training, but the 47th brigade proved during the war to be a very capable force. The problem was that the commanders were from Ukraine. I wonder what happened with this guy: https://x.com/valerii_markus?lang=en
I even read during counter offensive that drone operators, support personal and communication soldiers and even arthilery personals were forced to become assault infantry.
Thanks Tom
Very nice report as usual (of course, if one disregard a cliche of Russians dying in hundreds and "wave" attacks. But that's a part of the "game," I realise and accept this exaggeration). Otherwise, indeed the best overview available in open sources.
From my side, I would like to complete with the subject Tom partially mentioned - Isksnder ballistic missiles strikes. It is not a game changer yet but already on par with ATACAMs strikes, especially considering it's "speciality" to strike tactically (at least one Himars and one M270 were destroyed last weeks). But the main prey was PSU. At least two Flankers, one Mig-29, one Mi-24, a couple of S-300 batteries were smashed. Needless to say, none of Iskanders were downed. Most of strikes were taped by RU unchallenged drones that freely get far from frontline. Considering increasing production of these missiles, UA forces will face challenging issues.
Just out of curisoty. You deny the Russian wave attack, be it either mechanised wave or human wave. I hope we can agree to the fact that such attacks historically has been part of Russian warfare. So they have a tradition of it. Now all reports I have read, including trandcripts of Russian soldiers testemony have claimed that this sort if attacks have tanken place in this war as well. Further I think most agree that the fall of Bakhmut happened after several such attacks. Of course I understand that there is a lot of repetion here, some source claims this a was used, fire other picks it etc. but at least it is reported by several sources. Also we hear from several other sources that Russia is seriously lacking in vehicles to support its troops. But still everybody reports that they are attacking . But not «human Wales»? You consustently denies that such attacks take place. My question to you then is: What data would you need to change your mind?
You got me wrong, sorry. I meant now in 2024. There still could be some stupid mechanised columns attacks found but no human waves.
P.S. a fresh hit of Iskanders on UA air-defence assets near Odessa:
https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/16963
Ok. Now meat wave attacks in 2024. You mat or may not be right. But what evidence would be necessary to convince you that this takes place in 2024? Iskander attacks are unfortunately very real.
It sounds like PSU getting caught with their pants down...
A lot in that report Tom I'm not liking.
I have to agree.
It’s as if Kremlin are trying one great all out push across all fronts, in desperation seeing as their opponent is weakening a bit, or that its do or die, for the possibility of any negotiation
....the 'actually sad thing' is that certain PSU units are getting hit with their pants down - all the time since 24 February 2022....
So much so, that's really hard to watch...
Hello Tom,
It is always a pleasure to read your analyses, and they are an invaluable help in understanding what is happening and what will happen in Ukraine. Thank you.
I have a question about Luhansk: is it being reclaimed by the Ukrainians? I ask this because I have friends in a unit of Latinos belonging to the 66th Mechanized Brigade, who are being deployed north of Luhansk, more than 150 km from their base, and I can't find anything to justify this movement. These soldiers do not have artillery support, heavy weapons, and don't even know where the nearest allied troops are. What are they dying for there is a complete mystery to me.
https://youtu.be/Prv6oCN4i9o?si=bqlRgopi1dHoGNUZ
Thank you very much.
Hi Akino,
up front: the 66th is a little-known, but decent unit. I wouldn't describe it as 'crack', but it's combat-experienced- and successful unit (see how well they smashed Russian attacks in the last autumn), and I've never heard about any kind of complaints about its command staff.
Now, re. Luhansk: Luhansk is an Oblast (Province, if you like, or District) of Ukraine. It's a part of Ukraine. In 2014, the Russians invaded for the first time and seized about a third of it: the southern third, including the city of Luhansk, to be precise.
In February-March 2022, the Russians then invaded the northern two thirds of this oblast, too, and - in the course of a series of offensives that went on until late June, captured something like 90-95% of Luhansk.
In September 2022, around the time Pudding anschluss-ed Luhansk (plus Donetsk, plus Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson Oblast) to Russia, the Ukrainian launched their counteroffensive. this has recovered all of eastern Kharkiv, but, sadly, run out of steam while on approaches to Svatove and Kremina (two towns in western Luhansk).
That's where the frontlines are 'frozen' ever since. With other words: the Russians are still holding over 90% of Luhansk, and nope: presently, it does not look like Ukrainians might run another offensive that would liberate more of Luhansk.
Shouldn't mean they aren't going to try, though.
Since around October 2022 - when it was one of first units to cross the Oskil River - the 66th Brigade is deployed and fighting along the (administrative) border between (eastern) Kharkiv and (western) Luhansk. That's why the people you know have been sent to the approximate area of Borove (and from there to the frontlines that are further east, partially inside the Luhansk Oblast).
Means: they've not been lied to.
As for why the ZSU moved them there: if they are assigned to the 66th, they belong being sent to the frontline where the 66th is deployed. It's that simple in the armed forces, no matter where. And, if I'm to ask: if they are a unit assigned to the 66th, for them it's always better to serve while assigned to that brigade, than being 'cross-assigned' to any other brigade (that's always a recipe for problems).
Now, sadly, after two years of intensive fighting, the 66th is poorly equipped. Has got only some M113s, few 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers calibre 122mm, and few old ZSU-23-4 Shilkas (self-propelled anti-aircraft guns calibre 23mm). That's why it's got so little artillery support.
That said, the 66th is not alone. On its northern flank are the 3rd Assault- and the 107th Territorial Defence Brigades, and on its southern flank is an entire 'bunch' of good ZSU units (like the 4th Rapid-Reaction Brigade of the National Guard, which is one of very few NATO-certified Ukrainian units). And they are - as necessary and as possible - supported by the 40th Artillery Brigade, plus several UAV-units.
With other words: they're neither alone, nor lost, or going to die for nothing (BTW, in Europe, we hear rarely about them, but due to my business contacts, I do get to hear a lots of good things about 'Latinos' - especially Brazilians, and also people from few other nations - serving with the ZSU, too. Thus, I think they're going to be in good company.)
Again: principal problem is that the 66th is a little-known unit. The staff is not very good in English language, many of troops are from the occupied Donetsk, and others are reservists: simple, poor people - without money for fancy cameras, night visors or similar stuff. Thus, we rarely hear about them in the social media. But, they are good and friendly people, and fighting well, too. BTW, you can follow the unit on its official FB-page, for example:
https://www.facebook.com/66ombr/
Hi Tom.
Thanks for all this useful information. It's hard to get it elsewhere.
Unfortunately, language barrier(s) are taking its toll against the Latino's troops at the 3rd Batallion, 66th Mech Brigade. Most of them don't speak English but Spanish or Portuguese. Lack of communication erodes their trust in orders and officers and negatively impacts their combat performance.
I've details about what's happening there now, but I think is no point to make them public. However, I'm happy to share these details with you if you think it might be positive in any way.
Thanks again for your time.
Thanks for the update. A little depressing this time, after some more positive reports some week. Interesting question about anti-aircraft measures. I think we easily farget lessons learned and thus has to re-learn. But yes, flying obstacles should Work and should be very cheap, regarding the transfer of airnen to the infantery I guess the guy was just covering his ass. At least I hope so. But well, the Ukrainians probably have their share of ignorant and idiot leaders as well.
We certainly have our share of ignorant and idiot leaders, and that share is, unfortunately, large enough.
I was thinking about flying obstacles for a while - they could be used to cover common routes of cruise missiles and drones, but since they often change routes, that would probably require too much investment. And I'm not sure about their efficiency. It would be nice if someone could share some info on their practical usage after 1939-45.
That's one of points: actually, they're not changing their routes at all. Especially not the one between Kherson (city) and Kryvyi Rih, or the one south of Odesa.
Because - and just like Iraqi Mirage-pilots while operating over the Persian Gulf, back during the times of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s - that's 'too much work with re-programming routes'.
Ok, now I'm puzzled.... If the routes are more or less similar, adding some "guntruck checkpoints" to them should be a fairly cheap option.
On the contrary, what I often read in the reports is that drones and cruise missiles use curved and intricate routes to avoid (and/or find) SAM sites.
Any course change would be an obstacle. And these things are cheap relatively, and show people you are trying,
Somewhere in the Ukrainian military their versions of Grant, Sherman, Upton, Patton, Jackson, Clarke, Bradley, and Eisenhower are doing their best and hopefully surviving, while the current crops of McClellands, Burnsides, Johnsons, Fredendalls are still in the field.
The Ukrainian people tried to change the bureaucracy and the government management, but Pudding invaded in Ukraine. He is trying hard to stop changes in Ukraine to a better way. He sponsored many political parties and separate members of the Ukrainian parliament to sabotage any changes. 24 February 2022 Ukraine was in the same conditions as the country was on 21 November 2013 when the Euromaidan has started.
I hope the people like "Tavr" Krotevich, like "Redis" Prokopenko, and like other people with a firm Ukrainian dream will change the situation in a better way. They are growing in their job titles.
Sure thing, it was Putin's fault, that Saakashvlili, who gave a very strong blow to corruption in Georgia, failed to do the same in Ukraine, while he was a governor of Odessa region.
I did not doubt that your comment appeared under my thoughts. You are predictable.
It is Ukraine’s fault, of course. You insinuate the better for Ukraine because the Russians want to destroy all of Ukraine ? State, nation, identity ? As has been written in several texts by the fucking killer and his idéologues. Have you ever tried to get out of the postSoviet Russian swamp and embrace being an ex-Sovietrepublic ? This is a very long and deadly road. The fucking Russians will not allow it and the fucking West neither. Three hundred years of occupation by the Russian and Soviet dump leaves deep structural caracteristics. Read the opinion polls published by the Levada Center. They show very well how the Russians as citizens think today. The social pact in Russia : terror, violence and corruption works very well. Read the opinion polls made in Ukraine : this is another nation with different ambitions and a different vision of the life they want to live, the state they want to build. Their brains function while facing a brutal invasion on a daily basis.
In some things you are right, in some you are too idealistic. Don't overestimate brains of any nation, it's just a matter of brainwashing/propaganda by public media and similar things. Most of people can't think independently, like it or not. Many elections won emotionally, not rationally.
As per Ukraine (my imho), since 1991 it f..cked up all the great opportunities given. Even in 2014 instead of saying "damn, get your Crimea and Donetsk, we will build new Berlin war and will make a new state". What UA authorities did instead? Started senseless war of attrition with puppet republics of Donetsk&Luhansk, built army and were preparing for the war with Russia. The was a great chance to get rid of some absolutely pro-Russian territories and commence a new life (setting example to neiugbours, first of all to Russians themselves). Should I mention allmighty corruption all over Ukraine?
Even during the war UA side did everything wrong (I am not speaking about military actions here): plunged into ultimate Russophobia instead of putting forward a slogan like "we are fighting for you freedom too against a dictator", senseless killing of prisoners (see recent revelation https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/world/europe/ukraine-surrendering-russians-killed.html
), idiotic shootings at civilians in Donetsk and Belgorod, and etc. Just see what UA authorities doing at their own people: RU TG channels are full of videos (new ones being revealed every day) from Ukraine how UA recruiters capture ordinary people from the streets to army in the best tradition of Frederich the Great times: beating, arresting, sometimes shooting and similar nasty ways. People are running away, drowning in the border rivers, dressing women clothes, and etc.
In other words, UA leaders are trying to "outMordor Mordor" what makes Moscow laughs. And in the same time the kids of UA elite are biding their time in Nice and Monaco (also many videos available). All above give rather gloomy prospects of Ukraine future. The painful reality is the following: the best part of UA male youth is dying or already dead at front, the most pretty UA female part of youth gone abroad for good, to say nothing about millions of active people that ran away from the war to Europe, US and...to Russia, of course.
P.S. 300 years of occupation? Gimme a break. Current Ukraine was made by the Soviets of, at least, 4 historically not-related parts (to say nothing about Crimea). And I admit that it was current war that made the nation more or less created. Still, want to remind that each fifth perished UA soldier is ethnic Russian, while roughly each 8th deceased Russian soldier is ethnic Ukranian.
Just one comment on your text which shows on what Russian breast you nurture yourself.. How comes you think that the Eastern Ukrainian territories invaded by Russia in 2013-2014 were ProRussian ? Have you ever consulted the opinion polls up to 2014 in these territories ? They contradict your statements. And I am not talking about the referendum and its results in favour of Ukrainian indépendance. Even on the Crimean peninsula and especially in Sevastopol. It is a Russian narrative constructed and spread by the Russians that the Ukrainians in these territories are Prorussian. Do not repeat it. Even Girkin had to admit that he could not mobilize more than 100 « separatists ». Hundredthousands of the Ukrainians fled the Russian occupation and went to live in Kherson and Kharkiv. I am not commenting your other désinformation. Russian channels ….
Erm... Pudding is doing his utmost to subvert Ukraine - at least since 2009, probably since earlier. The country - and its pluralism - are a literal 'thorn in his side', all the while, and whether you like that, or not. So much so, he's just constructed a new, 79th version of reasons for his idiotic invasion: survival of Russia.
....as if all of Russia can't survive without controlling Ukraine?
Thank you, Tom. Your texts are excellent but the situation on the battlefields seemsto get worse and worse for the Ukrainians.
Oh bother. Not news we want to hear, but if it's the truth, we must. Serious Western support and internal reform must both happen in tandem. One thing I do not count on though - China coming to the party. They seem to have decided firmly that they don't want a transition of power in Russia at the moment. Really, this is a side of the war that doesn't get enough attention - China must ultimately be put in a position where letting Putin fall is more preferable to the alternative.
Somehow, my April-May battlefront anxiety and depression is back... What seems to be easy lessons learnt, and for a few weeks indeed seems to have been applied by the AFU, are coming back again...
"Two days ago, the Russians have seized Tarasivka, 7km north of Novooleksandrivka." Are you are serious?
Перевірте ваші дані. Це не правда. Поля горять, тому що пшениця висохла. При обстрілах, так і від роботи нашої артилерії все легко загоряється. Спека.
Fields? Sat photos are showing multiple fires in the middle of the village, for 3-4 days already.
Так. Там же не одне суцільне поле, щоб за один раз вигоріти. Там поля пшениціі сухої, соняшника зеленого. Там позиції. По ним прилітає, поля горять. То одне займеться, то інше.
OK. Thx.
Have now posted a 'reservation' of sort, in the latest update.
I personally can't blame Zelensky for the start of the war because he worked for peace with Russia. Germany and France convinced him there would not be a war.
Obviously, Zelensky proved to be naive, but the problem is that afterwards, he gave power to too many corrupt and seemingly incompetent individuals like Ermag. I read that Sodol is his person.
These total idiots are too obsessed with power and do not realize there will be none if Russia wins. Even before the counteroffensive, it was clear that the ZSU needed better command and leadership, but too much time was wasted. Of course, the failure of the counteroffensive was swiftly blamed on the West, and although it was true that support was lacking, Zaluzhny refused to follow the plan and the brigades' coordination was terrible. One tank stopping an entire mechanized assault was the final nail in the coffin for me.
Obviously, the whole offensive was poorly planned and organized. They even blamed the training, but the 47th brigade proved during the war to be a very capable force. The problem was that the commanders were from Ukraine. I wonder what happened with this guy: https://x.com/valerii_markus?lang=en
I even read during counter offensive that drone operators, support personal and communication soldiers and even arthilery personals were forced to become assault infantry.
No idea (what happened to him).
Can only agree with your conclusions.