Ukraine War, 5 July 2024: Fish rots from the Head, Part 2
(….continued from Part 1…)
The principal reason for my discussion of… ‘issues’ with different of ZSU’s commanders in the Part 1 of this feature, is that we’re going to see ‘some results’ of that in the following review, too.
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Generally, this week, the VKS flew some 90-100 air strikes a day, deploying around 120-150 UMPK glide bombs (peak was on 29 June, when they dropped 147 UMPKs just on positions of the Khortytsya Group of the ZSU!). Additionally, they were firing some 50-60 BM-30s and S-300s per day.
Early on 1 July, the Russians attacked Kyiv with two Iskander-Ms. The PSU claimed both as shot down, but debris hit multiple buildings in the Obolon district. Then the Russians hit the Mirhorod AB (Poltava Oblast) with an Iskander-M, destroying two operational Su-27, and damaging 4 non-operational Su-27s (the latter 4 were not moved since February 2022). Also damaged was at least one Mi-24. The Russian Granat UAV that guided this strike is known to have circulated the air base for at least 3 hours… yet there was nothing the PSU could do about it…?
On 3 July, the Russians launched 3 Iskander-Ks, 4 Kh-59 PGMs, and 5 Shaheds at targets in the Dnipro (city) area. The PSU claimed five of Iskanders and five of Shaheds as shot down, but at least one of missiles hit the big factory complex of Yuzhmash, in central Dnipro, killing at least 4 and wounding 27.
On the same day, by around 16.00hrs, the VKS also struck the Kharkiv Oblast with a total of 36 UMPKs. Then the Russians hit the Dolgintsevo AB, outside Kryvyi Rih, destroying an operational MiG-29 there….
….and then Colonel Yuri Ihnat, spokesman of the Ukrainian air force came up with complaints about the Russian missile strikes, treachery and, essentially, explained the PSU can’t do anything about all of this.
….probably because it’s so hard to construct ‘too many’ aircraft shelters with help of shipping containers, fill these with earth or sand, cover them with camouflage nets, and then regularly rotate aircraft and decoys between them…?
…or strike Russian depots for Shaheds, like this was done on 2 July, when up to 90 of these were claimed as destroyed in a strike on Cape Fiolent, south of Sevastopol in the occupied Crimea (together with some of personnel operating them)…?
….sigh…
And so, while I was wondering about Ihnat’s statments, it came to my mind that… don’t even recall the feature any more: it was few months ago, and I’ve written and published so much on this blog… anyway, the talk was about examples from different wars in the Middle East. Especially the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. In response to that, at last three readers came back to explain how ‘Middle Easterners/Muslims can’t fight’, and another one ‘kindly’ reminded me about books like ‘Armies of Sand’….
Actually, both the Iraqis and the Iranians developed numerous indigenous solutions for similar problems they were facing (here something like a ‘list’ of different Iraqi ‘solutions’; while I’m at that, let me remind you that the Shahed is based on a design originally developed in South Africa on Iraqi request from 1988).
….but, specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces – can’t.
The latest explanation is that ‘ground personnel is massively transferred to infantry’.
If so, then both Ihnat and Syrsky, plus Lieutenant-General Mykola Oleshchuk (commander of the PSU) belong being fired, because highly-specialised ground personnel of the air force has nothing to search for in ‘infantry’.
Another example: how comes it took almost two years to see the first Ukrainian ‘blimps’ or ‘dirigables’ equipped with surveillance equipment? And, how comes we’re yet to see any of these used for air defence purposes - for example through being chained to the ground, thus creating obstacles for incoming missiles and attack UAVs, as was done so often during the Second World War?
The latter question is causing me really a lots of itch in that small toe because, balloons/blimps/dirigables are the oldest ‘flying tools of war’ around - yet in Ukraine it seems nobody came to the idea to make use of them any earlier…?
Ah well…
At least on the same day (3 July) the ZSU hit back by deploying its Shark UAVs and M142 HIMARS to knock out one of Russian 1L119 Nebo early warning radars (found by a Shark UAV).
Yesterday (4 July), a Kinzhal ballistic missile released by one of Russian MiG-31Ks hit the Nadezhda oil pumping station, in Seleshchyna, east of Poltava, setting a number of storage tanks afire.
The last night (4-5 July), the Russians also run a strike including 32 Shaheds: all 32 were claimed as shot down by the PSZSU. This morning, the Russians targeted the Voznesensk AB, causing several large fires…
….and much more is certain to follow, because Belusov is a big fan of UAVs… and the Russians are already producing UAVs operating outside the frequency range covered by the Ukrainian electronic warfare…
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Northern Kharkiv… oh dear… if I start discussing this, I would actually have to start with another wrong decision of the GenStab-U - the one about dismissal of the local commander, few days after the start of the Russian offensive in this area… and how now there are requests for the officer to be returned to his position…
But, sigh… OK… In the Lyptsi-Hlyboke area, the Ukrainians continued assaulting into Hlybovke, the Russians are still trying to reach Lyptsi. Further east, while the ZSU continued clearing the western and eastern side of Vovchansk, the Russians continued re-filling their destroyed formations, and run a number of counterattacks into the northern side of the town. All have been heavily hit by FPVs and artillery, but they kept coming. They’re also still trying to reach the Agregate Works, indicating there are still Russian troops holding out inside.
Mind: the ‘situation is stabilised’ means not ‘the Russians withdrew’, and even less so, ‘the Russians stopped attacking’. On the contrary, the onslaught is going on. They’ve just switched their doctrine from one of mass mechanised attacks to incessant and mass infantry attacks.
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BATTLE OF DONBAS
Siversk…the last three days Siversk was heavily hit by the Russian BM-27s, BM-30s, and UMPKs. It’s almost as if the Russians re-discovered the place is still existent…
Bakhmut…Generally, the Russians seem to have abandoned flanking efforts (at least for a while), and are back to assaulting the Kanal District. Probably have the eastern side under control again – although being heavily hit by artillery and FPVs.
In the southern sector, Ukrainians run a local counterattack into southern Klishchivka, but this seems to only have lessened the Russian pressure on temporary basis.
Toretsk….what might have been ‘probing’ attacks on Shumy, two weeks ago, are meanwhile certainly another Russian offensive, with assaults on Druzhba and Pivnichne in the north, and Zalizne and Khytryy Rynok in the south. With other words: the Russians are now seriously grinding forward in this area. The situation was critical enough for the PSU to fly air strikes against the Russians in Pivnichne.
Even more worrisome was the Russian assault of 2-3 July, from Trotiske and Novoselivka along the Kryvyi Torets River in northern direction on Niu-York/New York (yes, there’s a place with that name in Ukraine, named after New York): this has secured most of southern Niu-York up to around Teatralnyy Street.
Avdiivka-Pokrovsk… Two days ago, the Russians have seized Tarasivka, 7km north of Novooleksandrivka.
In the Novooleksandrivka area, the Russians are also re-filling their destroyed units (for example: the [almost completely destroyed] 433rd Motor-Rifle Regiment was re-filled by the 1308th Motor-Rifle Regiment), and still trying to grind themselves in direction of the T0504. They continued assaulting in northern and western direction from Novomikhailivka, though without much success. That said, principal immediate target of their attacks this week was the area north and south of Yevhenivka and Voshod, both west of Sokil. The ZSU really hit them hard – with FPVs and artillery –, causing hundreds of casualties, but they continued attacking and took one field/tree line north, and the hamlet of Voshod and two fields south of it.
BTW, it seems the Russians are meanwhile deploying assault units staffed by women, in this sector.
Mariinka… the Russians have meanwhile secured most of central Krasnohorivka, and are pushing hard into the area with private homes, in the northern side of the village. Also, on 2 July, the Russians deployed lots of UMPKs to hit Selydove, Kosgtinatynopil, and Odradne – places about 10km behind the frontline. Obviously, the PSU’s air defences of this area are still poorer than elsewhere.
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SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Vuhledar… here the Russians are meanwhile not assaulting directly on Vuhledar, but from Solodke and Volnodymyrivka towards the 0532 road. Might have taken a field/tree line or so, this week. Gauging by Krotevych’s complains about Sodol, so far the ZSU wasn’t even taking this battlefield seriously… it’s going to be interesting to monitor if Hnatov might approach this issue in different fashion…
Staromaiorske….that village remains under the Russian control: the ZSU never tried to recover anything. At least Urozhaine is still holding out, regardless how heavily hit by the Russian artillery and air strikes.
Robotyne… OK, so the village is ‘no-man’s land’, but, the Russians are trying to push in northern direction – and that both on the western and eastern side of its ruins. In the rear, they’re constantly shelling and rocketing Mala Tokhmachka. Have also TOS-ed Ukrainian positions directly north of Novoprokrovka.
The Nikopol area was heavily shelled by the Russian artillery the last few days.
The city of Kherson is heavily hit by the Russian artillery and FPVs the last few days. As usually, Ukrainians are reporting only the damage to civilian buildings….and, of course, there is no end of that in sight…
…while, what are poor Ukrainian Marines experiencing in the Krynky bridgehead for months - all thanks to Sodol (because he used to be the commander of the Ukrainian Marine Corps, earlier this year)…. is something even the GenStab-U can’t really explain, and thus, actually, another story worth its own feature…
Very nice report as usual (of course, if one disregard a cliche of Russians dying in hundreds and "wave" attacks. But that's a part of the "game," I realise and accept this exaggeration). Otherwise, indeed the best overview available in open sources.
From my side, I would like to complete with the subject Tom partially mentioned - Isksnder ballistic missiles strikes. It is not a game changer yet but already on par with ATACAMs strikes, especially considering it's "speciality" to strike tactically (at least one Himars and one M270 were destroyed last weeks). But the main prey was PSU. At least two Flankers, one Mig-29, one Mi-24, a couple of S-300 batteries were smashed. Needless to say, none of Iskanders were downed. Most of strikes were taped by RU unchallenged drones that freely get far from frontline. Considering increasing production of these missiles, UA forces will face challenging issues.
The Ukrainian people tried to change the bureaucracy and the government management, but Pudding invaded in Ukraine. He is trying hard to stop changes in Ukraine to a better way. He sponsored many political parties and separate members of the Ukrainian parliament to sabotage any changes. 24 February 2022 Ukraine was in the same conditions as the country was on 21 November 2013 when the Euromaidan has started.
I hope the people like "Tavr" Krotevich, like "Redis" Prokopenko, and like other people with a firm Ukrainian dream will change the situation in a better way. They are growing in their job titles.