Hello everybody! It’s since a few days that I’m wondering: how to continue reporting about and analysing this war? I wonder about this because the morbidity of the Western politics vis-a-vis Ukraine (and Israel/Palestine) is constantly reaching ever higher record levels, and it’s, actually, impossible to explain what’s going on in Ukraine these days, without discussing it.
I really appreciate your updates. I think it’s the most comprehensive summary about the state of war and gives me a better understanding of current developments. Thanks for sharing
Thanks for the update, as usual, Tom. I’ve the same thoughts last weeks, also, about to handle the info (or absence of it) without start a fight every time.
About the much vaunted “secret bio-labs” and its vaccines for politicians, here in Southwest Europe we may have good use for then, too!
Morozov, father of the original design, was Ukrainian. He also got be a Hero of the Socialist Labour for it. Maybe he saw the future. Maybe he's having a lot of fun in the afterlife now.
Thank you very much. Great text. --- About the mobilization law : is it not a sign of respect for the democratic process that these laws took so long to pass all the hurdles ? They are - as far as I could see and read - responding to problems on the ground and are modernizing recruitement methods, for instance clarifying who can be mobilized and who cannot be (no more medically half sick or half recovered men) and also professionalizing the process ... it is difficult to find a summary on these laws as publications just do cherry picking of the content to what they think might excite their readers. In a terrible situation with a war raging, I thought that the Ukrainian institutions did a good job. There is a real public debate. And I think since Zaluschni's departure there is a "new ambiance" on the battlefield. --- It is just my itch in my right little finger that tells me so. Sorry, if I sound naiv and incompetent. But I did also read Don's information on the interviews with Syrsky.
Mark Rutte for the new NATO Secretary General. Also, Kallas, of all people and nations, has left the race and endorsed him. Sometimes, I think that we Europeans really don't deserve to live in peace. Our future is to be treated like pandas.
I must disagree. The politics of western democracy is stupid, cynical, corrupt… and has still produced the best societies. This is of course mostly due to poor competition, But still. It is very far from perfect, But better than the alternatives. And it can be improved. There is hope.
No, it is not a sign of respect for the democratic process. Just like Putin's delay of the "partial" mobilisation was not a sign of respect for the totalitarian process either. All the things you mentioned have to be conducted constantly and continuously, regardless of whether the age of conscription is lowered or not.
As Tom wrote, finally people in Kyiv were brought to their senses. From the outside, it appears that Zelenskyy simply lost any trust in Zaluzhny, a long time ago. He trusts Syrskyi, so Kyiv is once again on the same team as the ZSU. Let's hope it stays that way.
Also, a public debate on matters of war is a pathological situation, which is unfortunately common today. War is too a dramatic and much too a dynamic event, to be listening to public debates in the (social) media. Even if it was useful, it's too slow. Wars are won by technocrats and the politicians who let them work.
It's just the opposite. The old (Soviet) laws had strict rules about which health conditions made a man unfit. That has recently been changed so that virtually any condition is left for the doctors to decide about the fitness.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Now the doctors have absolute power over the lives of those who get caught and brought to them, all the objective rules eliminated.
Fortunately, the real situation isn't like you describe. The law was ratified in 2011, until the invasion of Crimea and Donbas. Until this moment requirements for health conditions weren't changed. Amendments changed some names and procedures, not more.
Ukraine is a lawful country, if someone thinks that his rights were offended he can ask for help to a lawyer or ask directly to a court.
OMG, this student from Kharkiv won the court case three times. This is help from a lawyer, isn't it?
Man, every time you send me a new link and change a topic of conversation. I see, you don't want to discuss, you want to spam with the links. It's senseless conversation. All your stories about the people who won't fight. Ok, I don't mind. Only the Lord can judge us. Also, the Lord hates a coward. Dixi
I really appreciate your updates. Finally decided to upgrade to paid, after reading regularly since last spring. Keep up the good work!
About that vaccine - is it for them to see the reality - or distributed to all folks so that they won't see that politicians are disconnected from reality :=)
RU airbases attacks - SBU are smart guys. Testing their drones on easier targets first, playing cat and mice with Russian AD, threatening to destroy Crimea bridge, NOT LISTENING to (social media) advice to hurry up and attack airfields asap, and attacking RU air bases when they feel they may score some substantial hits. Well done.
That’s how I see it too. Just as Ruskies contemplate moving some AA resources to cover refineries and means of production, Ukraine reminds them that they also have billions of dollars of irreplaceable (in any meaningful timeframe) aircraft to defend.
Well, Russian sources state that all the planes were moved before the drones arrived so they were bombing an empty airfield. I suppose we know more once a satelite flies over the area. Hopefully we get some clarification about the success of it, then perhaps all sorts of keyboard generals around the internet take break from lecturing Ukrainians how the "war should be fought"
If you mean Fighter-bomber, he lost his credibility after shotting down of 3 su 34 near Krynki on December that was last time when he said some truth. He also didn't even confirm a loss of first A 50. It looks like that FSB decided to "correct" him after he over complained about VKS strategy. Actually there are no visible damage, except 2 planes that disappeared after attack and that stayed at the same part of airport as a explosions on video of attack. Honestly it can also be shrapnel damage, but I would not rely on it, because it is impossible to confirm
Thanks, good to know Ukraine is holding the line despite everything.
Regarding the west... I think discussing in this blog is preaching to the converted, we all know the western response is lackluster at best. It's actually probably a testament to Zelensky's media-savvy personality that he managed to get popular attention towards caring even this much.
Western polititians are visibly completely clueless, in some combination of incompetence, cowardice, corruption, selfishness and short-term thinking. And the public and media are too brainwashed into "we're peaceful and don't have weapons" to realize that yes, they DO have weapons. But since this is a constant it may be reasonable to just come up with a standard "Carthage must be destroyed" phrase, something like "Furthermore, I still think American and European leaders should be less idiotic and send Ukraine the help it needs." Western reponse so far has been such a joke when compared to the potential for such, it hadly merits serious analysis anymore.
At least, to end on a positive note, any support more than zero is substantially more than what Putin was counting on.
I am not disagreeing with your analysis of the western politicians. I will point out that, much as it might pain us, they are reflections of us. Their constituency. That is after all an effect of democracy. And that is unfortunately an Even bigger problem than the politicians.
Yup, imperfect reflections of an imperfect electorate. But that isn't a problem in itself. Actually I think the west would have done even less if it was up to just the leaders and there was no electoral pressure to help Ukraine.
Yep, as they say, you get the government you deserve (attributed to Jefferson but actually comes from a French philosopher, Joseph de Maistre: "Toute nation a le gouvernmente qu'elle merite").
I think of this when I am tempted to feel sorry for Russians.
There is another series of pictures of (probably) this same tank, eventually neutralized. This war started with makeshift cope cages, now we reached the "UAV jammer for every vehicle" phase - I wonder when will the first jammer-seeker UAVs will appear.
According to NBC news and Reuters, 6 planes were destroyed and 8 badly damaged. Of course this remains to be verified, but not in line with bombing plane images painted on a tarmac to say the least.
Thank you for the update. It seems to me that several of the steps Ukraine has taken is in line with what you have been advocating. Regarding the need to discuss more than what is actually happening at front, what is new about that? For the time I have been following you one of the impressive and fascinating things about your analysis have always been the combination of analysis at Micro level and how it Connect to macro level and vis versa. You have always been caustic as well as sarcastic in your analysis, always critical of the leadership on both sides, always emphasised how the battlefield skapes and is shaped by politics. And definetly explained the hypocracy and stupidity on both sides. So regarding the need to talk about politics, well you are there. Do continue. At both levels. And dont hold back on your political critism, you are Sarcastosaurus.
Thank You, Tom, for update. Eager to see the results of Ukranian strike of Su-24/34 location, as it is really pain in the back.
God bless ZSU.
I really appreciate your updates. I think it’s the most comprehensive summary about the state of war and gives me a better understanding of current developments. Thanks for sharing
Thanks for the update, as usual, Tom. I’ve the same thoughts last weeks, also, about to handle the info (or absence of it) without start a fight every time.
About the much vaunted “secret bio-labs” and its vaccines for politicians, here in Southwest Europe we may have good use for then, too!
Keep on with the fight!
Thanks for your time Tom. Informative, intelligent and interesting.
"a completely failed tank-design"
Morozov, father of the original design, was Ukrainian. He also got be a Hero of the Socialist Labour for it. Maybe he saw the future. Maybe he's having a lot of fun in the afterlife now.
I wish him fun in the afterlife. It gives the rest of us hope too.
Thanks Tom! Let’s see if the number of gliding bombs will change.
Thank you very much. Great text. --- About the mobilization law : is it not a sign of respect for the democratic process that these laws took so long to pass all the hurdles ? They are - as far as I could see and read - responding to problems on the ground and are modernizing recruitement methods, for instance clarifying who can be mobilized and who cannot be (no more medically half sick or half recovered men) and also professionalizing the process ... it is difficult to find a summary on these laws as publications just do cherry picking of the content to what they think might excite their readers. In a terrible situation with a war raging, I thought that the Ukrainian institutions did a good job. There is a real public debate. And I think since Zaluschni's departure there is a "new ambiance" on the battlefield. --- It is just my itch in my right little finger that tells me so. Sorry, if I sound naiv and incompetent. But I did also read Don's information on the interviews with Syrsky.
Ah mate... the more I know about the politics in 'Western liberal democracies', the more it appears 'abandon all hope who enters' for me...
Mark Rutte for the new NATO Secretary General. Also, Kallas, of all people and nations, has left the race and endorsed him. Sometimes, I think that we Europeans really don't deserve to live in peace. Our future is to be treated like pandas.
I must disagree. The politics of western democracy is stupid, cynical, corrupt… and has still produced the best societies. This is of course mostly due to poor competition, But still. It is very far from perfect, But better than the alternatives. And it can be improved. There is hope.
Yup. Hope dies the last, as they say...
You speak like my alter ego :))
No, it is not a sign of respect for the democratic process. Just like Putin's delay of the "partial" mobilisation was not a sign of respect for the totalitarian process either. All the things you mentioned have to be conducted constantly and continuously, regardless of whether the age of conscription is lowered or not.
As Tom wrote, finally people in Kyiv were brought to their senses. From the outside, it appears that Zelenskyy simply lost any trust in Zaluzhny, a long time ago. He trusts Syrskyi, so Kyiv is once again on the same team as the ZSU. Let's hope it stays that way.
Also, a public debate on matters of war is a pathological situation, which is unfortunately common today. War is too a dramatic and much too a dynamic event, to be listening to public debates in the (social) media. Even if it was useful, it's too slow. Wars are won by technocrats and the politicians who let them work.
It's just the opposite. The old (Soviet) laws had strict rules about which health conditions made a man unfit. That has recently been changed so that virtually any condition is left for the doctors to decide about the fitness.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Now the doctors have absolute power over the lives of those who get caught and brought to them, all the objective rules eliminated.
Fortunately, the real situation isn't like you describe. The law was ratified in 2011, until the invasion of Crimea and Donbas. Until this moment requirements for health conditions weren't changed. Amendments changed some names and procedures, not more.
Ukraine is a lawful country, if someone thinks that his rights were offended he can ask for help to a lawyer or ask directly to a court.
> Ukraine is a lawful country
https://suspilne.media/culture/672580-ucasnik-gurtu-intermezzo-povernuvsa-na-robotu-j-oskarzuvatime-postanovu-policii/
This person asked for help from a lawyer, didn't he?
Man, be honest like Beckham said to his wife.
Did a lawyer help? The men fight at the front line for years while their lawyers (which must be paid - I don't know from which money) wait for trials https://patrioty.org.ua/society/skandal-ne-stykhaie-v-ukraini-19-richnyi-student-pivtora-roky-voiuvav-na-bakhmutskomu-napriamku-poky-advokat-dovodyv-u-sudi-shcho-ioho-nezakonno-mobilizuvaly-502838.html
OMG, this student from Kharkiv won the court case three times. This is help from a lawyer, isn't it?
Man, every time you send me a new link and change a topic of conversation. I see, you don't want to discuss, you want to spam with the links. It's senseless conversation. All your stories about the people who won't fight. Ok, I don't mind. Only the Lord can judge us. Also, the Lord hates a coward. Dixi
> Ukraine is a lawful country
https://www.slidstvo.info/news/povistka-iak-pomsta-sbu-vykorystala-viyskkomat-dlia-peresliduvannia-zhurnalista-slidstva-info-za-yoho-vykryttia/
I really appreciate your updates. Finally decided to upgrade to paid, after reading regularly since last spring. Keep up the good work!
About that vaccine - is it for them to see the reality - or distributed to all folks so that they won't see that politicians are disconnected from reality :=)
Thx, much appreciated.
Re. vaccine: you know how it is with vaccinations... one has to start somewhere. So, best is to start with politicians. The public can follow... ;-)
It will require more than MRNA….
“60 explosions”. Nice!
RU airbases attacks - SBU are smart guys. Testing their drones on easier targets first, playing cat and mice with Russian AD, threatening to destroy Crimea bridge, NOT LISTENING to (social media) advice to hurry up and attack airfields asap, and attacking RU air bases when they feel they may score some substantial hits. Well done.
That’s how I see it too. Just as Ruskies contemplate moving some AA resources to cover refineries and means of production, Ukraine reminds them that they also have billions of dollars of irreplaceable (in any meaningful timeframe) aircraft to defend.
Slava Ukrainia!
Well, Russian sources state that all the planes were moved before the drones arrived so they were bombing an empty airfield. I suppose we know more once a satelite flies over the area. Hopefully we get some clarification about the success of it, then perhaps all sorts of keyboard generals around the internet take break from lecturing Ukrainians how the "war should be fought"
If you mean Fighter-bomber, he lost his credibility after shotting down of 3 su 34 near Krynki on December that was last time when he said some truth. He also didn't even confirm a loss of first A 50. It looks like that FSB decided to "correct" him after he over complained about VKS strategy. Actually there are no visible damage, except 2 planes that disappeared after attack and that stayed at the same part of airport as a explosions on video of attack. Honestly it can also be shrapnel damage, but I would not rely on it, because it is impossible to confirm
Well when I read about the airbase attacks on Twitter, my answer was "well, they finally listened to Tom Cooper"
Let's wait for the results. The attacks could have been repelled.
Thanks, but first we need to see some evidence for all the claims.
Thanks, good to know Ukraine is holding the line despite everything.
Regarding the west... I think discussing in this blog is preaching to the converted, we all know the western response is lackluster at best. It's actually probably a testament to Zelensky's media-savvy personality that he managed to get popular attention towards caring even this much.
Western polititians are visibly completely clueless, in some combination of incompetence, cowardice, corruption, selfishness and short-term thinking. And the public and media are too brainwashed into "we're peaceful and don't have weapons" to realize that yes, they DO have weapons. But since this is a constant it may be reasonable to just come up with a standard "Carthage must be destroyed" phrase, something like "Furthermore, I still think American and European leaders should be less idiotic and send Ukraine the help it needs." Western reponse so far has been such a joke when compared to the potential for such, it hadly merits serious analysis anymore.
At least, to end on a positive note, any support more than zero is substantially more than what Putin was counting on.
I am not disagreeing with your analysis of the western politicians. I will point out that, much as it might pain us, they are reflections of us. Their constituency. That is after all an effect of democracy. And that is unfortunately an Even bigger problem than the politicians.
Yup, imperfect reflections of an imperfect electorate. But that isn't a problem in itself. Actually I think the west would have done even less if it was up to just the leaders and there was no electoral pressure to help Ukraine.
There has been more support than expected. Indeed. But that was a low bar, which after all was moral outrage and handwringing.
Yep, as they say, you get the government you deserve (attributed to Jefferson but actually comes from a French philosopher, Joseph de Maistre: "Toute nation a le gouvernmente qu'elle merite").
I think of this when I am tempted to feel sorry for Russians.
Can only agree and say yes, yes, yes, and yes...
There is another series of pictures of (probably) this same tank, eventually neutralized. This war started with makeshift cope cages, now we reached the "UAV jammer for every vehicle" phase - I wonder when will the first jammer-seeker UAVs will appear.
According to NBC news and Reuters, 6 planes were destroyed and 8 badly damaged. Of course this remains to be verified, but not in line with bombing plane images painted on a tarmac to say the least.
Thank you for the update. It seems to me that several of the steps Ukraine has taken is in line with what you have been advocating. Regarding the need to discuss more than what is actually happening at front, what is new about that? For the time I have been following you one of the impressive and fascinating things about your analysis have always been the combination of analysis at Micro level and how it Connect to macro level and vis versa. You have always been caustic as well as sarcastic in your analysis, always critical of the leadership on both sides, always emphasised how the battlefield skapes and is shaped by politics. And definetly explained the hypocracy and stupidity on both sides. So regarding the need to talk about politics, well you are there. Do continue. At both levels. And dont hold back on your political critism, you are Sarcastosaurus.