Ukraine War, 5 April 2024 (UPDATED)

Hello everybody!

It’s since a few days that I’m wondering: how to continue reporting about and analysing this war?

I wonder about this because the morbidity of the Western politics vis-a-vis Ukraine (and Israel/Palestine) is constantly reaching ever higher record levels, and it’s, actually, impossible to explain what’s going on in Ukraine these days, without discussing it.

….sigh…

Something like ‘principal question’ is that of continuing to do ‘as if nothing else matters but what’s going on along the frontlines’, or ‘do something more’…?

Haven’t made up my mind yet, so let’s go for the ‘option A’: here a brief review of latest developments on crucial battlefields of this war.

STRATEGIC

Seems, at least some sanity is ‘returning’ to Kyiv: apparently, ‘somebody there’ has managed to explain to Zelensky that there is no ‘quick end to the war’, and thus, two days ago (Wednesday, 3 April) he’s, finally, lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25. In this fashion, the government aims to replenish the ranks of the ZSU.

…which is, to quote Alanis Morissette, ‘a little bit ironic’ because, from what I’ve got to hear from contacts within the ZSU about a week ago, since February this year (perhaps since certain Gen. Syrsky was appointed the Commander-in-Chief?), the force was already undertaking a ‘deep reform’ regarding its personnel, and ‘rapidly re-filled’ numerous units with lots of people who ‘sat in the rear’ for most of the last two years.

In similar fashion, the ZSU seems to have reorganised the issue of artillery shells (see: what is left of stocks from earlier times). Word is that this was the principal reason for the ZSU finding the way to (finally?) stop both the Russian offensives west of Avdiivka and in the Robotyne area. At least there are reports about ‘improved situation with artillery ammunition’, like here (provided the link works).

That said, this was really ‘5 before 12’, because despite all the defence successes of the last week, the ZSU was still ‘trading space for time’ and the situation was getting ‘really, seriously, critical’ meanwhile (as if ‘critical’ is not enough, on its own…).

From other ‘important news’ from abroad… seems, German government came to the idea to start searching for additional Patriot missiles, launchers, and radars in similar fashion like the Czech government found those 1,2 million artillery shells, ‘somewhere outside the EU’.

…thinking of it…. well… considering all the conspiracy theories and so… perhaps one of Pudding’s ‘bio-chemical weapons laboratories in Ukraine’ has - except for developing LGBT-cyborgs on dope - also developed something like ‘reality vaccine for politicians’ after all…? If so, please, be so kind and let me know: I happen to know a few places in eastern USA and north-western EU that might need a few shiploads of that stuff… it’s a life-time business opportunity, believe me…

AIR/MISSILE WAR

The last few days, the Russians are ‘back’ to ‘low-scale’ Shahed-attacks into Ukraine. Every night, they’re releasing ‘just’ about a dozen. Enough to keep the Ukrainian air defences on their toes and continue exhausting their stocks on surface-to-air missiles, though. Ukrainians are, ‘stoically’, hitting back with their own UAVs. One of these has hit the administration building of the Shahed-factory in the Russian Tatarstan, about 1,200km outside Ukraine.

Yesterday and the last night, Ukrainians have (‘finally’) flown mass-UAV-strikes at:
- Morozovsk Air Base (559th BAP with Su-34s)
- Yeysk Air Base (859th Fighter Weapons School, Su-34s)
- Engels-2/Saratov Air Base (121st Guards BAP and 184th BAP with Tu-160s and Tu-95s, respectively).

Morozovsk is outside Rostov-na-Donu and was attacked by up to 60 UAVs. It’s a home-base for a wing of around 26 Su-34s and 4 Su-24s - primary carriers of the Russian UMPK glide-bombs: up to 60 detonations were reported from this area. The Russians claim to have shot down 44 attacking UAVs there alone - and 52 in grand total (all over Russia).

Yeysk is outside Yeysk on the eastern coast of the Azov Sea and is one of VKS air bases on which ‘decoys’ were painted on the tarmac already months ago. Engels-2 is outside Saratov: it’s the main base of the Russian bomber fleet and another place where ‘decoy aircraft’ were painted on the tarmac…

Ukrainians claim to have destroyed 6- and damaged 8 Russian aircraft, and killed and wounded up to 20 ground personnel.

A map of a tripple-UAV strike of the last night.

(Thinking of this reminded me of that episode of Monty Python where a professor of philosophy and a catholic priest were boxing over the issue if there is a ‘God’, or not. The result was something like: ‘There is God, by knock-out in the Round 3’. ….in this case, it took just a few weeks of ‘bitter complaining in the social media’ to prompt a UAV-strike on one of major Russian air bases ‘close’ to the frontlines… but, now, ahem… ‘there is God by knock-out in the Round 3’.)

Ah yes, and BTW: Ukrainian special forces operators and partisans active behind the Russian lines are reporting that – because the Russian Armed Forces have re-deployed the mass of their air defence systems to the occupied Crimea – the Russians are now experiencing a growing shortage of air defence systems inside their own country, and especially so in the Ryazan region.

….must be a pure, distilled accident…

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Bakhmut… yesterday, a big Russian assault group attacked along the Road 0506 and has reached the Zelena Street on the eastern side of Chasiv Yar. For once (or ‘finally’? ….if so, … I’ll register that word as my new trade-mark), the ZSU reacted really quickly and decisively – which is about the only way to tackle any kind of Russian ‘bridgeheads’ (whether those across some river or inside any kind of settlement): it counterattacked, kuddled a lots of Russians, and kicked whoever was still alive well out of the place (and back to their starting positions, some 700 metres east of Chasiv Yar).

….not sure if it was the Russian assault on Chasiv Yar that that resulted in the latest Russian record in turret-tossing, as recorded on the video-still above. But it’s sure the crew of the T-80 or T-90 in question did try to reach not only Mars, but Jupiter, too… which is making me concerned: I’m not sure if the locals there (on Jupiter) might be delighted to receive that kind of visitors…

If anybody thinks the Russians are ‘dumb’ to attack in this fashion: don’t make mistakes, please. Be sure the Russian commanders would prefer to approach Chasiv Yar via Ivanivske, i.e. along the road 0504, low inside a valley and thus better protected, but: as long as Ukrainians are holding at least the last ‘street’ of that… hkhm… ‘village’, they can’t do so.

…where I’m ‘coughing’ because in the case of Ivanivske, that with ‘village’ is really very relative, as following photos are showing:

Of course: there is no need to worry. The Russians are going to get back - both to Chasiv Yar and to Ivanivske - as soon as they’ve brought in another contingent of mobiks, T-80s, BMPs, and MT-LBs…

Avdiivka… something similar is valid for this area: see, after spending another 5-6 assault groups for no gains, the last 4-5 days, the VSRF is searching for and hauling in reinforcements (principally from the Svatove area) it can deploy to renew its assaults.

ZAPORIZHZHYA

As ‘indicated’ above, ‘not that much going on’. See: the (slightly) improved availability of artillery shells resulted in ‘less enthusiastic’ Russian attacks on Robotyne, the last few days. Might be related to destruction of several of their artillery pieces, and kuddling of another bunch of mobiks, T-80s and BMPs of the 42nd Motor-Rilfe Division.

….who can say, or would ever have thought - that artillery shells might be something useful… and that at war…

***

PS Should it happen that you wonder: yes, this is what the Russian T-90s are looking nowadays. The ‘stuff’ atop of their ‘cage’ is including a UAV-jammer. AFAIK, so far, it was not helping them the least…

Thinking of it: perhaps they could put another tank atop of the ‘actual’ tank - to finally improve protection of what is so obviously a completely failed tank-design….? Ah yes: that wouldn’t help against mines…