Thank you a lot for sharing all your thoughts and putting an effort into writing these articles for several years already.
I feel more and more sad as time passes to see another bosnian scenario happening very likely, where global and local oligarchs are going to fill their pockets, leaving common people (at least those who manage to stay alive) drowning in what is left of their lives years and years after all of this is once finished.
Yes, seems like the unique recipe for 'keeping things in place' for certain groups again and again, and yet we still do not (or do not want to) realize that until things go too far...
Well the only conclusion out of this text is that the only one that could save Ukraine is Kamala Harris. If Trump wins Selensky and Ukraine will have to accept whatever he "negotiates" with Putin. I hope the Baltic States learnt the right lessons here, but so far the only thing that comes out of their leaders' mouth is that NATO needs to do this or do that. Better tool up and expect the worse without any external help.
I am asking myself now what is better. A quick end or an endless war, where Ukraine never gets a chance to get anywhere, while fulfilling the interest of the US to bleed Russia dry to a state, where it is too crippled to interphere anywhere else ( like in Syria, central Africa, Mali for example)
There is another dimension there: Ukraine was defeated and occupied by Russia 2 or 3 times in its history. Each time it took a century for another opportunity of freedom to appear. Poles know the case well - they were in a similar situation but were able to fight back.
Thus, the amount of pain inflicted on Russia may make the difference between the complete occupation and assimilation of Ukraine and "Finlandization" when the country remains mostly independent because it would be too hard to control - which is also how Turkey and Nepal survived when they fought back against much stronger force.
Kamala will continue Biden's 'little help strategy' which will prolong war and bleed Ukraine dry of young people and so and from any future. Trump will force Zelensky into negotiation which can at least save lives of who left alive
I don't think Ukraine can keep this war going for more than a year. Their country continues to be bombed every day, while Russia's economy continues to function despite Western sanctions. Their only chance would be to develop deep strike capabilities fast enough to make a difference, which is clearly not the case, otherwise Selensky wouldn't despair at Biden's position on strikes with US weapons or those with US components (Storm Shadow). If Harris has the same position as Biden, she would do better to tell Ukraine that this is as far as it goes and that it is time to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin.
With a world economy as integrated as today, there never was a way for sanctions to _stop_ product flows into Russia. They can be made noticeably more complicated and expensive, but not stemmed - and Russia still has money. (I saw an article about the Su-57 project grinding to a halt in the absence of parts; the plane is not being used in the war, so effects are nil.) The fact alone that they can get some Western equipment will not save their war effort, only slow down their attrition a bit.
As for the negotiating table, Harris or Trump or whoever can say anything - Putin demands that Ukraine give up their current positions, and the latter know that he will resume his invasion after that right away, so they won't make any deal with him. As the US has already brokered the Budapest agreement in 1994 which they have failed to uphold, they can't credibly preside over another one. Means: the war may get even more destructive, but it's unlikely to actually end anytime soon, no matter what.
we don't know when or how each of these already surfaced or other infights erupts, but the Russian society is transforming into a totalitarian state, which may fail for a variety of reasons, and failed totalitarianism means revolution.
We hearing about this internal conflicts for years but it didn't grow into anything substantial, it just wishful thinking same as hope that puting will die from cancer or something. Only prigozhin was insane and powerful enough to make some sort of organized mutiny, but sadly he was as stupid as insane and made himself killed
I’m thinking that the 72nd leadership must’ve pissed off some big shot in the UKR government/military that it got sentenced to die. I know it’s probably not but if this fiasco was a movie… then that’s the plot.
"(at least) ‘half’ of Ukraine is not only supporting but cheering how, for example, ‘Israel is enforcing the UNSC Resolution 1701’."
this makes me sad. I haven't fully figure it out why my fellow citizens don't see what's happening. I have some pieces of the puzzle:
1. protestant lobby. it's stronger then you think. half of my village (and family) are protestant. some rich and influential people in Ukraine are protestants.
2. wannabie Israel. many people in Ukraine dream of becoming that kind of Israel it manages to project to the rest of the world.
3. 20+years of western and 300+ years of north-eastern Islamophobia
Just on your note 3 - '20+years of western and 300+ years of north-eastern Islamophobia.'
I presume you are using 'Islamophobia' in the contest of an 'irrational fear of Muslims.'
Correct me if I am wrong.
The reality is that Islam from its origins has been spread nearly entirely by conquest with the corollary that refusing to convert was all to often a death sentence. Entire villages were often massacred during
And life as non-Muslims in conquered countries for those who survived and their descendants was for most at best as 'second class citizens.'
While non-Muslim individuals could often attain positions of wealth and power they were still ultimately 'second class' citizens.
Even when not actively launching campaigns to expand their territory in Europe, there were raids into Europe to provide slaves - the Crimean Tartars conducted raids into Russian, the Commonwealth, and other territories for nearly three centuries starting in 1468 (might by itself explain '300+ years of north-eastern 'Islamophobia').
As to current 'Islamophobia' there are the actions of the previous Sudanese government in 'pacifying' the Southern Christians and animists, the Islamists in Egypt in persecuting Copts, massacres in Nigeria by Islamic militants, etc.
One can only look at the later suras in the Quran to see that it encourages militancy and violence against the 'infidel' and see it playing out in Muslim dominated countries around the world.
What is particularly sad is that Israel has made its actions in the Middle East into a 'Battle of Western Civilization against Radical Islam' when in reality Israel kills and dispossesses Palestinians Christians just as readily Muslims. And I have no doubt that many (if not most) of the 'terrorists' who enlist in Hamas, Hezbollah, PLO, Fatah, etc. are motivated more by resistance to Israel's occupation in general and treatment of Palestinians than by religion.
The PLFP was Marxist-Leninist and founded by Lebanese raised in the Orthodox faith.
yes, you are right, but it's not clear if you were providing the historic background or justification? Either way, I don't see why historic events should shape our modem prejudices.
Spot on! "...are motivated more by resistance to Israel's occupation in general and treatment of Palestinians than by religion." I wish more people understood that.
Well, a 'phobia' is an irrational fear - I don't believe that Armenians in Nagorno-Kharabakh had an 'irrational fear' of the Azerbaijanis.
As I gave examples to, Christians in Muslim dominated countries today aren't irrationally afraid of their Muslim neighbors, nor are Yzidis, or even Muslims who aren't 'fundamental enough.
And, sadly nor do Palestinian and Lebanese Muslims and Christians have an 'irrational fear' of Israel.
Sadly whether the result of more exposure in the information age to radical Islamic teachings, or an edited history of the West's interaction with Islam portraying an innocent victim over the centuries (rather like the current hasbara put out in Israeli school for their children and to the world), we are seeing a surge in fundamentalist Islam in the form of honor killings, terrorism, forced conversions, etc.
Bin Laden preached the 'RE-ReConquista' of Spain, and the recovery of all of the European territory lost in the Balkans and Southern Europe. And to a receptive audience.
Historic perceptions are certainly a factor in the minds of enough Muslims to be a problem that can't be ignored.
I agree, but I'm less categorical. Islam has its share of bad ideas, but so does every religion. Have you read old testaments? it's arguable the most evil book ever written. Buddhists, who are generally pacifists, are committing genocide against Muslims in Myanmar. and in india muslims are oppresed and marginalized.
Bin Laden and co can preach whatever they want. as long as the west is strong, the re-reconquista isn't happening. As soon as it's week, Europe will inevitably fall: russian, chinise, africans, etc, someone will inevitable claim this nice piece of real estate. this is just how humans work.
Ukraine already produce shells (155mm, 120mm), Bogdana SPGs, Kozak MRAPs, and many more. I wonder, if VKS cannot hit these factories or is not interested to do it?
If these factories would be built in the west of UA, they may take electricity from neighboring countries. Western oligarchy are greedy, but not stupid. They care that their investments are save.
That's government propaganda. Ukraine produces almost nothing in terms of heavy weapons. You need machine tools which are in short supply even în the West. Ukraine has no money to buy new ones and nobody would donate them.
Just to compare: SPG Casear: in peacetime 10pcs/year(!), in December 2023 8/months.
These vehicles are not personal cars, it's common to build just a few pcs/months, compare it with other SPGs. 18pcs/month is a really good output. And, no factory build machines like SPGs everything from scratch. Usually, parts are made elsewhere and the factory completes them.
It is one thing to produce the artillery barrel, the fire control system and another to buy them from other countries. Ukraine does not produce artillery barrels. The amount of 152 mm artillery shells produced în Ukraine is probably less than 100k per year. Ukraine deploys artillery systems 40-60 years old from România, Bulgaria, Italy because it lacks local production.
Yep, it's what I have written, this is a common case in defense industry. E.g. Polish SPG Krab is made from imported British turret, French barrel and Korean chassis. There's no reason to build everything from scratch. No EU country has industry to sustain war with Russia, it's possible to beat it with cooperation only. (Well, the biggest European economies could make it, but it would be very difficult for them, because or Russian large resources of the old stuff and oil and gas.)
If you need cooperation to produce an artillery system then you better surrender. This is not Concorde or CERN. You either produce / buy the weapons with your own money or you don't fight. There is no middle road with a happy ending.
Countries have been 'acquiring' firearms designers from foreigners of foreign countries since firearms were invented.
In more recent times John Moses Browning created designs used by a multitude of countries and founded Browning Arms in the US which in 1977 was acquired by Belgian FN Herstal.
And then there is Mikhail Kalashnikov's design which has been manufactured in at least 32 countries and used by the millitaries of over 100.
It makes sense to adopt better designs even if not 'native' when it comes to weapons.
The total number of produced Bohdanas are 100, not hundreds. Ukraine lost 8 already, all recorded. And there are photos available of multiple Bohdanas. Like a recent photo of 7 vehicles inside a factory building.
Ukraine made barrels for it itself and continues making them now.
The web-site that Marmot is quoting is a reputable media about military industry. You won't find propaganda there.
I agree with MihaiB. Not only that, I don't believe any numbers reported by the UA industry. We do not see those hundreds of Bohdana's anywhere on the battlefield. They would dominate loss figures and that is just not the case at all. Also, where would they be getting 20 barrels/month from + spares? A polite reminder, that as the number of vehicles grows, the more spares you need. It has to be the same producer. Where in Europe is there a producer with such a spare capacity? To me this is standard propaganda, e.g. they make 18-20 truck chassis and claim it's 20 complete vehicles leaving the factory.
Stopped it on the exact frame answering your question. As for the rest of the argument sure, Ukraine and Russia are both importing lots of parts in their military production.
The total number of produced Bohdanas are 100, not hundreds. Ukraine lost 8 already, all recorded. And there are photos available of multiple Bohdanas. Like a recent photo of 7 vehicles inside a factory building.
Anders Puck Nielson (Danish military analyst, Russia expert) recently said that the place with the greatest spare military production capacity is Ukraine, and that it would be much faster and more effective to get this capacity working than to order kit from factories elsewhere that have long order backlogs. He certainly didn't say that Ukraine's military production capacity is already working to its potential.
I don't understand what he meant. Publicly there is very little known with regards to the actual state of the UA defence industry. The only thing that is known is that it doesn't produce any meaningful amounts, except for drones. However, there is a multitude of reasons for that and I doubt it is as simple as idle factories. E.g. depending on where the factory is, it may struggle to get a stable, consistent electricity supply. Money is certainly an issue, that is the UA gov doesn't have money to fill the production capacity. However, without actual data, it's all hand-wavy.
Last year, Germany, Denmark, and Norway has paid for Slovak SPG Zuzana-2 and given them to Ukraine. So, it's better to pay to Ukraine when it can make it's own SPGs, like Denmark did already. My guess is, more donations of this type will follow.
I think he meant spare economic capacity - underemployed workforce, empy industrial buildings that can be used, that sort of thing. Western economies have low unemployment now and new military factories will struggle to hire.
BTW. one who can knock down Russia are Saudis ... and electromobility. Saudis already abandoned their dream of $100/barrel and are keen to increase production. Just because even other OPEC members do not hold promises and are pumping more than they agreed to. Electric cars have small impact on the oil market, but these "gas station" countries can feel it already. They are not willing to cut their income and not able to change their economy, so they would continue pumping the same amount of oil. More electric engines we would have, oil prices would goes down.
Yes, Saudis can make the low prices just now, but they won't because they not care about UA, just about their wallets. (And no, Palestine - Israel doesn't bother them either.)
Thanks for the update Tom, very depressing in a way analysis, the lessons learned would have saved lives and combat experienced ZSU personnel.
Lost opportunities in Kursk sounds like "lost victories in WW II" by tactically and operationally competent units/mech/armor units then in mobile armored opns.
You mentioned the TU 22Ms able to operate in the Vuhledar AO, very damaging capability by the VKS against the deficiencies saddled ZSU and PSU. Bad news still and the west/allies supporting Ukraine still dripping out aid/support to the ZSU/PSU.
Thanks again, still your criticism is needed because silence means apathy/destruction of Ukraine and the Ukrainians as an independent country and people.
Looking forward to more evidence based criticism and real talk/analysis Tom.
Another excellent post from you, but it has got me soooooo depressed and frustrated!
You now have me half-convinced that the West really isn't interested in helping Ukraine achieve a "win" in this horrible war. At his point in the war I don't really know what a "win" looks like. I doubt the West knows what a win is either, and I am not 100% convinced that Zelensky really knows himself. I am referring to the determination of the conditions for termination of warfighting favorable to Ukraine.
From an American perspective, what I find so frustrating is that perhaps for the first time since World War II ended, the U.S. now has an able and motivated client (Ukraine) who is worthy of its full support in prosecuting this war. None of the other past U.S. clients including even the So. Koreans in the Korean War were worth much as allies/clients. Well perhaps I should give a "pass" to So. Korea given the society, economy and political structure of the nation-state that exists today. Considering the U.S.'s political dysfunction of today, I fear that the U.S. will blow it once again by failing to support a worthy ally instead of supporting a client who just can't cut it.
Frankly, strongly doubt that the Su-34s (to say nothing about Backfires) dare get that close to the frontline with free-fall bombs since still some UA Patriots and S-300s are around.
Thanks a lot again. Nothing is better for Friday evening than rage and more rage.
What's left for Ukraine to do? Try IRI? Perhaps the two could find some mutual interests.
IRI has long-range missiles that they might as well supply to Ukraine with no target limitation. Drone and artillery ammunition do not have to go to Russia. Ending the war in Ukraine should reduce the amount of profit to the West (They'll find it elsewhere anyway). The two nations have all the interest in becoming new nuclear states and making people care about what they have to say. Ukraine does not seem to care about what IRI do in the Middle East (perhaps except for shooting down more Ukrainian airliners). IRI does not care if Ukraine joins EU and NATO or who owns Crimea. Wouldn't that be interesting at the very least? Just my naive opinion.
It would be interesting. Apart from compatibility issues with NATO gear and the likeliness that the USA (or at least the Trumpian faction) would want to declare war on Ukraine straight away, the main problem is getting the weapons from Iran to Ukraine, in a purely logistical sense. Ukraine would need some serious shadow fleet. Or perhaps Russia could be paid to deliver the stuff.
Dear Tom. How do You think, may be new unions as example with north coutries(Sweden,Finland and etc), central europe(Poland, Checz,Baltics countries) could help Ukraine against russia? This countries have military industry what could help with producing military equipment.Also this countries have border with russia and it has to be interesting of them with help to Ukraine or it's only my wishes that itcould be?
It's too late. Scaling the production will take a couple of years, while ZSU is out of reserves with no inflow of volunteers. And an army can stand only for as long as it has some volunteer fighters.
Thanks a lot
Thank you for reporting as always. Much as it's full of sarcasm, better than being too optimistic or illusionary about this.
Thank you a lot for sharing all your thoughts and putting an effort into writing these articles for several years already.
I feel more and more sad as time passes to see another bosnian scenario happening very likely, where global and local oligarchs are going to fill their pockets, leaving common people (at least those who manage to stay alive) drowning in what is left of their lives years and years after all of this is once finished.
Indeed. This is not only reminding me of Bosnia in 1992-1995, but ever more of Syrian Agony, 2011-2017...
Yes, seems like the unique recipe for 'keeping things in place' for certain groups again and again, and yet we still do not (or do not want to) realize that until things go too far...
Well the only conclusion out of this text is that the only one that could save Ukraine is Kamala Harris. If Trump wins Selensky and Ukraine will have to accept whatever he "negotiates" with Putin. I hope the Baltic States learnt the right lessons here, but so far the only thing that comes out of their leaders' mouth is that NATO needs to do this or do that. Better tool up and expect the worse without any external help.
I am asking myself now what is better. A quick end or an endless war, where Ukraine never gets a chance to get anywhere, while fulfilling the interest of the US to bleed Russia dry to a state, where it is too crippled to interphere anywhere else ( like in Syria, central Africa, Mali for example)
There is another dimension there: Ukraine was defeated and occupied by Russia 2 or 3 times in its history. Each time it took a century for another opportunity of freedom to appear. Poles know the case well - they were in a similar situation but were able to fight back.
Thus, the amount of pain inflicted on Russia may make the difference between the complete occupation and assimilation of Ukraine and "Finlandization" when the country remains mostly independent because it would be too hard to control - which is also how Turkey and Nepal survived when they fought back against much stronger force.
Well, you also don't want to end like the Prussians against the Teutonic order.
Ukraine was ruled by Russia for the past 3 centuries
You are aware that the Prussians got genocided out of this world.
Stalin killed only several millions of Ukrainians and tens of thousands of Crimean Tatars.
Harris won't save Ukraine. She will most likely continue the status quo of drip fed support.
Kamala will continue Biden's 'little help strategy' which will prolong war and bleed Ukraine dry of young people and so and from any future. Trump will force Zelensky into negotiation which can at least save lives of who left alive
And of course, thanks a lot for the info. It's good to see how reality is instead of reading all those experts that keep saying that Ukraine will win.
I don't think Ukraine can keep this war going for more than a year. Their country continues to be bombed every day, while Russia's economy continues to function despite Western sanctions. Their only chance would be to develop deep strike capabilities fast enough to make a difference, which is clearly not the case, otherwise Selensky wouldn't despair at Biden's position on strikes with US weapons or those with US components (Storm Shadow). If Harris has the same position as Biden, she would do better to tell Ukraine that this is as far as it goes and that it is time to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin.
I mean, just look at this:
https://x.com/InsiderEng/status/1842202772155904284
With a world economy as integrated as today, there never was a way for sanctions to _stop_ product flows into Russia. They can be made noticeably more complicated and expensive, but not stemmed - and Russia still has money. (I saw an article about the Su-57 project grinding to a halt in the absence of parts; the plane is not being used in the war, so effects are nil.) The fact alone that they can get some Western equipment will not save their war effort, only slow down their attrition a bit.
As for the negotiating table, Harris or Trump or whoever can say anything - Putin demands that Ukraine give up their current positions, and the latter know that he will resume his invasion after that right away, so they won't make any deal with him. As the US has already brokered the Budapest agreement in 1994 which they have failed to uphold, they can't credibly preside over another one. Means: the war may get even more destructive, but it's unlikely to actually end anytime soon, no matter what.
Russia got internal conflicts:
* between Chechen and Ingush clans https://meduza.io/feature/2024/09/27/novaya-gazeta-evropa-rasskazala-kak-nachalas-strelba-u-ofisa-wildberries
* between the economical and military parties in the government https://meduza.io/feature/2024/10/02/rossiyskie-vlasti-vse-silnee-ogranichivayut-prava-migrantov-hotya-sovsem-nedavno-pooschryali-ih-pritok-v-stranu-i-prichina-ne-tolko-v-terakte-v-krokuse
we don't know when or how each of these already surfaced or other infights erupts, but the Russian society is transforming into a totalitarian state, which may fail for a variety of reasons, and failed totalitarianism means revolution.
Let's hope. It'll be bad but could it be worse than the present?
We hearing about this internal conflicts for years but it didn't grow into anything substantial, it just wishful thinking same as hope that puting will die from cancer or something. Only prigozhin was insane and powerful enough to make some sort of organized mutiny, but sadly he was as stupid as insane and made himself killed
Nope. Both conflicts are new.
Ukrainians will not stop fighting even if they "lose" the war and are occupied. Any suggestion that they can surrender and live in peace is ludicrous.
Russia's economy is still functioning but stress is increasing, e.g. inflation is up to 20%.
It is just so sad.
I’m thinking that the 72nd leadership must’ve pissed off some big shot in the UKR government/military that it got sentenced to die. I know it’s probably not but if this fiasco was a movie… then that’s the plot.
Unfortunately not. All Ukrainian brigades share the same fate. Used and disposed to show that Ukrainian Army is strong, never retreats, etc.
"(at least) ‘half’ of Ukraine is not only supporting but cheering how, for example, ‘Israel is enforcing the UNSC Resolution 1701’."
this makes me sad. I haven't fully figure it out why my fellow citizens don't see what's happening. I have some pieces of the puzzle:
1. protestant lobby. it's stronger then you think. half of my village (and family) are protestant. some rich and influential people in Ukraine are protestants.
2. wannabie Israel. many people in Ukraine dream of becoming that kind of Israel it manages to project to the rest of the world.
3. 20+years of western and 300+ years of north-eastern Islamophobia
Also hate for Iran
Just on your note 3 - '20+years of western and 300+ years of north-eastern Islamophobia.'
I presume you are using 'Islamophobia' in the contest of an 'irrational fear of Muslims.'
Correct me if I am wrong.
The reality is that Islam from its origins has been spread nearly entirely by conquest with the corollary that refusing to convert was all to often a death sentence. Entire villages were often massacred during
And life as non-Muslims in conquered countries for those who survived and their descendants was for most at best as 'second class citizens.'
While non-Muslim individuals could often attain positions of wealth and power they were still ultimately 'second class' citizens.
Even when not actively launching campaigns to expand their territory in Europe, there were raids into Europe to provide slaves - the Crimean Tartars conducted raids into Russian, the Commonwealth, and other territories for nearly three centuries starting in 1468 (might by itself explain '300+ years of north-eastern 'Islamophobia').
As to current 'Islamophobia' there are the actions of the previous Sudanese government in 'pacifying' the Southern Christians and animists, the Islamists in Egypt in persecuting Copts, massacres in Nigeria by Islamic militants, etc.
One can only look at the later suras in the Quran to see that it encourages militancy and violence against the 'infidel' and see it playing out in Muslim dominated countries around the world.
What is particularly sad is that Israel has made its actions in the Middle East into a 'Battle of Western Civilization against Radical Islam' when in reality Israel kills and dispossesses Palestinians Christians just as readily Muslims. And I have no doubt that many (if not most) of the 'terrorists' who enlist in Hamas, Hezbollah, PLO, Fatah, etc. are motivated more by resistance to Israel's occupation in general and treatment of Palestinians than by religion.
The PLFP was Marxist-Leninist and founded by Lebanese raised in the Orthodox faith.
yes, you are right, but it's not clear if you were providing the historic background or justification? Either way, I don't see why historic events should shape our modem prejudices.
Spot on! "...are motivated more by resistance to Israel's occupation in general and treatment of Palestinians than by religion." I wish more people understood that.
Well, a 'phobia' is an irrational fear - I don't believe that Armenians in Nagorno-Kharabakh had an 'irrational fear' of the Azerbaijanis.
As I gave examples to, Christians in Muslim dominated countries today aren't irrationally afraid of their Muslim neighbors, nor are Yzidis, or even Muslims who aren't 'fundamental enough.
And, sadly nor do Palestinian and Lebanese Muslims and Christians have an 'irrational fear' of Israel.
Sadly whether the result of more exposure in the information age to radical Islamic teachings, or an edited history of the West's interaction with Islam portraying an innocent victim over the centuries (rather like the current hasbara put out in Israeli school for their children and to the world), we are seeing a surge in fundamentalist Islam in the form of honor killings, terrorism, forced conversions, etc.
Bin Laden preached the 'RE-ReConquista' of Spain, and the recovery of all of the European territory lost in the Balkans and Southern Europe. And to a receptive audience.
Historic perceptions are certainly a factor in the minds of enough Muslims to be a problem that can't be ignored.
I agree, but I'm less categorical. Islam has its share of bad ideas, but so does every religion. Have you read old testaments? it's arguable the most evil book ever written. Buddhists, who are generally pacifists, are committing genocide against Muslims in Myanmar. and in india muslims are oppresed and marginalized.
Bin Laden and co can preach whatever they want. as long as the west is strong, the re-reconquista isn't happening. As soon as it's week, Europe will inevitably fall: russian, chinise, africans, etc, someone will inevitable claim this nice piece of real estate. this is just how humans work.
Ukraine already produce shells (155mm, 120mm), Bogdana SPGs, Kozak MRAPs, and many more. I wonder, if VKS cannot hit these factories or is not interested to do it?
If these factories would be built in the west of UA, they may take electricity from neighboring countries. Western oligarchy are greedy, but not stupid. They care that their investments are save.
That's government propaganda. Ukraine produces almost nothing in terms of heavy weapons. You need machine tools which are in short supply even în the West. Ukraine has no money to buy new ones and nobody would donate them.
SPG Bogdana:
Donation by Denmark: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukrainian-forces-received-batch-of-bohdana-1726352918.html
Production 18-20 pcs/months https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-produces-up-to-20-bohdana-self-propelled-guns-per-month/
Just to compare: SPG Casear: in peacetime 10pcs/year(!), in December 2023 8/months.
These vehicles are not personal cars, it's common to build just a few pcs/months, compare it with other SPGs. 18pcs/month is a really good output. And, no factory build machines like SPGs everything from scratch. Usually, parts are made elsewhere and the factory completes them.
It is one thing to produce the artillery barrel, the fire control system and another to buy them from other countries. Ukraine does not produce artillery barrels. The amount of 152 mm artillery shells produced în Ukraine is probably less than 100k per year. Ukraine deploys artillery systems 40-60 years old from România, Bulgaria, Italy because it lacks local production.
Yep, it's what I have written, this is a common case in defense industry. E.g. Polish SPG Krab is made from imported British turret, French barrel and Korean chassis. There's no reason to build everything from scratch. No EU country has industry to sustain war with Russia, it's possible to beat it with cooperation only. (Well, the biggest European economies could make it, but it would be very difficult for them, because or Russian large resources of the old stuff and oil and gas.)
If you need cooperation to produce an artillery system then you better surrender. This is not Concorde or CERN. You either produce / buy the weapons with your own money or you don't fight. There is no middle road with a happy ending.
krab is not made of the parts you mentioned plus poland delivered 108 of them to ukraine
The west is fat, lazy and corrupted. Europe expects Americans to die for it hence they have allowed defence industries to atrophy.
France couldn't even design or produce a new assault rifle - they are buying German Heckler and Kochs.
Countries have been 'acquiring' firearms designers from foreigners of foreign countries since firearms were invented.
In more recent times John Moses Browning created designs used by a multitude of countries and founded Browning Arms in the US which in 1977 was acquired by Belgian FN Herstal.
And then there is Mikhail Kalashnikov's design which has been manufactured in at least 32 countries and used by the millitaries of over 100.
It makes sense to adopt better designs even if not 'native' when it comes to weapons.
The total number of produced Bohdanas are 100, not hundreds. Ukraine lost 8 already, all recorded. And there are photos available of multiple Bohdanas. Like a recent photo of 7 vehicles inside a factory building.
Ukraine made barrels for it itself and continues making them now.
The web-site that Marmot is quoting is a reputable media about military industry. You won't find propaganda there.
I agree with MihaiB. Not only that, I don't believe any numbers reported by the UA industry. We do not see those hundreds of Bohdana's anywhere on the battlefield. They would dominate loss figures and that is just not the case at all. Also, where would they be getting 20 barrels/month from + spares? A polite reminder, that as the number of vehicles grows, the more spares you need. It has to be the same producer. Where in Europe is there a producer with such a spare capacity? To me this is standard propaganda, e.g. they make 18-20 truck chassis and claim it's 20 complete vehicles leaving the factory.
https://youtu.be/RiAWQ0h7g-g?t=1943
Stopped it on the exact frame answering your question. As for the rest of the argument sure, Ukraine and Russia are both importing lots of parts in their military production.
Perun in that video specifically says 10/month. I can believe 10/month. Not 20.
The total number of produced Bohdanas are 100, not hundreds. Ukraine lost 8 already, all recorded. And there are photos available of multiple Bohdanas. Like a recent photo of 7 vehicles inside a factory building.
Then they are not producing 20/month.
They recently started producing them in that quantity.
I know people inside the MIC who know this for a fact.
Anders Puck Nielson (Danish military analyst, Russia expert) recently said that the place with the greatest spare military production capacity is Ukraine, and that it would be much faster and more effective to get this capacity working than to order kit from factories elsewhere that have long order backlogs. He certainly didn't say that Ukraine's military production capacity is already working to its potential.
I don't understand what he meant. Publicly there is very little known with regards to the actual state of the UA defence industry. The only thing that is known is that it doesn't produce any meaningful amounts, except for drones. However, there is a multitude of reasons for that and I doubt it is as simple as idle factories. E.g. depending on where the factory is, it may struggle to get a stable, consistent electricity supply. Money is certainly an issue, that is the UA gov doesn't have money to fill the production capacity. However, without actual data, it's all hand-wavy.
Last year, Germany, Denmark, and Norway has paid for Slovak SPG Zuzana-2 and given them to Ukraine. So, it's better to pay to Ukraine when it can make it's own SPGs, like Denmark did already. My guess is, more donations of this type will follow.
Here's an example of a local manufacturer and some of the barriers to expansion that they face.
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/sept-28-day-948a-us-assistance-fibs
I think he meant spare economic capacity - underemployed workforce, empy industrial buildings that can be used, that sort of thing. Western economies have low unemployment now and new military factories will struggle to hire.
BTW. one who can knock down Russia are Saudis ... and electromobility. Saudis already abandoned their dream of $100/barrel and are keen to increase production. Just because even other OPEC members do not hold promises and are pumping more than they agreed to. Electric cars have small impact on the oil market, but these "gas station" countries can feel it already. They are not willing to cut their income and not able to change their economy, so they would continue pumping the same amount of oil. More electric engines we would have, oil prices would goes down.
Yes, Saudis can make the low prices just now, but they won't because they not care about UA, just about their wallets. (And no, Palestine - Israel doesn't bother them either.)
Yes, loss of control over oil markets is one of the biggest strategic failures of Russia's war.
Not in the world where the nuclear power stations have been shut down, thus the greenest fuel is the gas from "gas stations".
Russia does not make much money from gas, important is to export oil for them. E.g. see https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ Chapter Trends in total export revenue
(Gas station in English is used for gasoline/petrol station).
Thanks for the update Tom, very depressing in a way analysis, the lessons learned would have saved lives and combat experienced ZSU personnel.
Lost opportunities in Kursk sounds like "lost victories in WW II" by tactically and operationally competent units/mech/armor units then in mobile armored opns.
You mentioned the TU 22Ms able to operate in the Vuhledar AO, very damaging capability by the VKS against the deficiencies saddled ZSU and PSU. Bad news still and the west/allies supporting Ukraine still dripping out aid/support to the ZSU/PSU.
Thanks again, still your criticism is needed because silence means apathy/destruction of Ukraine and the Ukrainians as an independent country and people.
Looking forward to more evidence based criticism and real talk/analysis Tom.
This is great work. Almost no one writing about the war is thinking on this level. 👍
Another excellent post from you, but it has got me soooooo depressed and frustrated!
You now have me half-convinced that the West really isn't interested in helping Ukraine achieve a "win" in this horrible war. At his point in the war I don't really know what a "win" looks like. I doubt the West knows what a win is either, and I am not 100% convinced that Zelensky really knows himself. I am referring to the determination of the conditions for termination of warfighting favorable to Ukraine.
From an American perspective, what I find so frustrating is that perhaps for the first time since World War II ended, the U.S. now has an able and motivated client (Ukraine) who is worthy of its full support in prosecuting this war. None of the other past U.S. clients including even the So. Koreans in the Korean War were worth much as allies/clients. Well perhaps I should give a "pass" to So. Korea given the society, economy and political structure of the nation-state that exists today. Considering the U.S.'s political dysfunction of today, I fear that the U.S. will blow it once again by failing to support a worthy ally instead of supporting a client who just can't cut it.
Maybe the Syrian rebels were able and willing as well.
... and the Iraqi Kurds?
Nice report, as usual.
Frankly, strongly doubt that the Su-34s (to say nothing about Backfires) dare get that close to the frontline with free-fall bombs since still some UA Patriots and S-300s are around.
Thanks a lot again. Nothing is better for Friday evening than rage and more rage.
What's left for Ukraine to do? Try IRI? Perhaps the two could find some mutual interests.
IRI has long-range missiles that they might as well supply to Ukraine with no target limitation. Drone and artillery ammunition do not have to go to Russia. Ending the war in Ukraine should reduce the amount of profit to the West (They'll find it elsewhere anyway). The two nations have all the interest in becoming new nuclear states and making people care about what they have to say. Ukraine does not seem to care about what IRI do in the Middle East (perhaps except for shooting down more Ukrainian airliners). IRI does not care if Ukraine joins EU and NATO or who owns Crimea. Wouldn't that be interesting at the very least? Just my naive opinion.
It would be interesting. Apart from compatibility issues with NATO gear and the likeliness that the USA (or at least the Trumpian faction) would want to declare war on Ukraine straight away, the main problem is getting the weapons from Iran to Ukraine, in a purely logistical sense. Ukraine would need some serious shadow fleet. Or perhaps Russia could be paid to deliver the stuff.
I hope that was a sarcasm.
Dear Tom. How do You think, may be new unions as example with north coutries(Sweden,Finland and etc), central europe(Poland, Checz,Baltics countries) could help Ukraine against russia? This countries have military industry what could help with producing military equipment.Also this countries have border with russia and it has to be interesting of them with help to Ukraine or it's only my wishes that itcould be?
It's too late. Scaling the production will take a couple of years, while ZSU is out of reserves with no inflow of volunteers. And an army can stand only for as long as it has some volunteer fighters.