Ukraine War, 4 October 2024: Illusions and… yet more Illusions
Hello everybody!
While everybody is waiting for an Israeli ‘retaliation’ against Iran, and conveniently ignoring IASF’s bombardment of civilians in Suni Districts of Beirut (where there was no Hezbollah ever), lets ‘get back to Ukraine‘… where few things about ‘strategy’ are meanwhile as clear as Biden-Netanyahu’s strategy for the Middle East.
This even more so because somebody asked me about what would Ukraine need to win this war – which, sorry, but: when thinking of possible answers, is enraging me, which in turn is making me bitterly sarcastic.
Thus… well, you know what that means by now…
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One of, meanwhile, unavoidable conclusions is that the Zelensky Administration in Kyiv is suffering from several very serious illusions. Like the one that it can impress the zombie idiots in the West with ‘spectacular’ offensives, ‘peace plans’ and whatever else: that it could change their minds, convince them it’s important to seriously support Ukraine, make it capable of defeating Russia, and other, similar fantasies.
No, dear Ukrainians: you can’t impress the zombie idiots with anything you have. They’ll keep on ‘mumbling and aimlessly stumbling around’. Or, if you think you can: have you failed to pay attention at the fact that ‘the West’ can’t even impress itself - by losing one war after the other.
Oh, you think that’s not the case? So, what about Libya, Iraq, Syria, Mali, Afghanistan, and Yemen? What about war against (quasi)’Islamist’ extremism (a.k.a. ‘War on Terror’)?
Actually: is there a single conflict fought in the last, say, 20-or-so-years, where ‘the West’ drew a clear-cut victory (in military, but also in political sense)?
If you haven’t figured it out by now: the answer is negative. And the reason is that for ‘the West’, ‘all these wars’ – and that’s meanwhile including this one in Ukraine – are not only ‘very far away’, but: they do not have any kind of negative impact. They’re ‘simply irrelevant’, because ‘not diminishing profits’. On the contrary: all these wars have handsomely served the purpose of enriching the oligarchy, have helped it distract its own public while extracting nice profits, and they are helping it subvert pluralism at home. Correspondingly, these wars, and their outcome were perfectly fine the way they were. And/or still are. So, why should the West care if ‘it’ loses another war – ‘even if’ it happens this would be the one in Ukraine?
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Next point… ah, you mean: ‘the West’ is going to save Ukraine for reasons like ‘civilisation’ and ‘human rights’?
Like ‘the West’ is saving civilisation and human rights through violating all of its own ‘laws’ and ‘rules’ and wholeheartedly supporting the peaceful, civilised, diplomatic, pluralist, and humanitarian US-Israeli genocide of Palestinian civilian terrorists and, meanwhile, the Lebanese civilian terrorists, because these are from the medieval ages, you mean?
Indeed, (at least) ‘half’ of Ukraine is not only supporting but cheering how, for example, ‘Israel is enforcing the UNSC Resolution 1701’.
Aha. And, who’s going to enforce the UN Resolution 181? Or the UNSC Resolution 242…?
And if not… well, then why should the West support Ukraine when somebody violates the UN Charter, plus about a dozen of different international treaties and agreements, invades it and subjects it to a war of extermination?
BTW, another half of Ukraine is demanding ‘to Den Haag with Pudding’ – while conveniently ignoring their ‘most important ally’, as well as their ‘holly ally’ are both not recognising the ICC in Den Haag. Indeed, ever since the times of Qusay Bush in the USA, the valid related legislation there is the Haag Invasion Act. The other ‘ally’ is considering the ICC for ‘anti-Semitic’. Yet, you expect these two parties to help you bring Pudding to Den Haag…?
And, if not, then why not? Because the ICC and the UN/UNSC Resolutions are some consumables in a grocery: something one can pick at own discretion, or ignore if preferring to. ‘Please, pack me 500 gram of this Resolution, and then a 120-gram-slice of that Resolution, but no-no: nothing of the ICC, it’s not kosher…’
Really: is nobody there in Ukraine realising it is exactly such behaviour that resulted in the World-wide collapse of the West’s ‘rule of law and order’ – in turn, and in between others, offering Pudding a precedent for his invasion and war of extermination of Ukraine, while converting the UN to a bunch of toothless barking dogs?
If it’s nothing of that, then at least this: why do the Ukrainians then expect a genocide-supporting ‘the West’ to come and save Ukraine against Pudding’s genocide?
…especially where half of zombie idiots here in ‘the West’ considers Zelensky ‘more dangerous’ than Pudding. Is particularly valid for those with fascistoid ideologies, which are proven effective enough to make Trump, Orban, AfD and FPÖ as successful….
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Next point… ah, see there: as a condition for ‘continuous provision of aid’ by ‘the West’ (ho-hum), the Zelensky administration was forced to issue a legislation along which foreigners are now free to ‘invest in Ukraine’ – through purchasing real estate.
Of course, the legislation in question actually reads a bit different, and is supposed to have some other effects, but the point is: Ukrainians do not have money. ‘The West’ does. So, how much of Ukraine is now going to be sold off to ‘the West’ in exchange for aid that’s never going to arrive?
….and why not make peace through selling the same real estate to Pudding instead?
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Next point… the Zelensky’s ‘peace plan’…?
I would, really, from the bottom of my heart, love learning about details of a ‘plan’ that envisages the end to this war. A war in which there is only one party – just one, nobody else – that can end it. Right now, any time of the day. And that one party is no Ukraine. And definitely no ‘the West’.
It’s Pudding.
(Alternatively: yes, Ukraine can end it too, right away. By a capitulation, of course.)
Point is: Pudding has put all of his eggs into the basket of exterminating Ukraine. His armed forces, his economy, the future of the entire Russian Federation, and his own. Nothing else matters to him, because nothing else is as effective in keeping him in power and securing his position. Everything he’s got is now invested into exterminating Ukraine.
(….as is about 0.02% of what ‘the West’ has got…)
But, Zelensky is certain he can…. Do what exactly? Develop super powers of a Jedi Knight, enabling him to convince Pudding into giving up on all of this through stopping his war of extermination of Ukraine? Probably through a single look of his eyes, or a move of his hand, if he just gets an opportunity to get closely enough to him….?
That can’t be described even as ‘science fiction’.
The same is valid for travelling to the USA to ‘present that peace plan’ to geriatric apparatchiks like Biden and Trump. Do I have to remind you that Ukraine used to be a part of the USSR? Therefore, at least my generation of Ukrainians should still remember what it used to be like living under the rule of geriatric apparatchiks like Brezhnev.
Pay attention: Brezhnev died at 75. Chernenko, his successor, at 73.
Oh, see there: Trump is 78, and Biden 81. Surprise, surprise…
And just like Brezhnev was a part of his own system, so are both of Americans a part of the corruption-, tax-avoidance-, profit-extraction-, and oligarchy-dominated system of rule already their entire life. But, Zelensky’s going to ‘convince’ them? Change their minds? And he’s going to go to Rammstein and demand arms……by selling real estate, I guess…?
Please, give me a break with all of this. What didn’t work the last 10 years is not going to work now either. And – and that’s a notice for those who haven’t figured it out by now - bolstering a failure at war is a one-way road.
Whoever is still failing for such illusions, better makes place for somebody who is not.
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Fact is: regardless what is the USA announcing, what is the EU announcing, in ‘the West’ there is neither interest, nor political will to help Ukraine win this war; therefore, there is no coherent strategy and thus no unified effort for this purpose. There’s lots of babbling, few people understanding there’s a threat for the entire system, but lacking powers to change anything, and thus no systemic, and even less so: consequent action. Sure, it’s ‘nice’ to see/hear yet another announcement for ‘next aid/arms package’. However, not only that merely a small part of what’s announced is actually reaching Ukraine, but precisely that is also a clear confirmation for everything listed above: Ukraine is all the while getting one (singular) aid- or arms package here, another there, perhaps this month, perhaps the next – instead of ‘the West’ making sure Ukraine can depend on a constant flow of arms and ammo.
Has anybody got an idea what a havoc is such behaviour causing to all the Ukrainian military planning?
How is anybody there in Kyiv supposed to plan an operation, when it can only be sure that it can’t be sure whether it’s going to get the necessary arms and ammo, or not?
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Next point… Even if ‘the West’ would, all of a sudden (probably after hitting some wall with its forehead, and sharply at that), decide to seriously help: nobody in that ‘the West’ has an idea about the impact of the Russian glide bombs upon the flow of combat operations in Ukraine. (Yes, sure, a few of us are warning about that for over a year. But, who’s listening?)
‘The West’ has not even an idea of what such weapons mean – especially in combination with the constant drain of Ukrainian stocks of surface-to-air missiles through streams of Russian attack UAVs into Ukraine, run every single night.
What’s worse, seems even the Zelensky Administration is not aware of this fact.
That’s how comes Western corporations have – finally – come to the idea to start (‘seriously’) investing into the Ukrainian defence sector. Which is wonderful news, actually.
Indeed: the idea is great, no doubt. There’s just one problem with it: air defences.
Currently, the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (PSZSU, I’m abbreviating this with ‘PSU’) can’t provide effective air defence for Ukrainian cities. It cannot even dream about doing the same for the ZSU troops on the frontline. Which in turn means that the PSU also can’t effectively defend the Ukrainian power supply system, either.
So, how do all of them – Zelensky and different of Western corporations now investing into the Ukrainian defence sector – expect to organise and run production? The last I’ve heard is that this is not working with electricity… And even if, how do they expect to run production in facilities exposed to the Russian missile strikes?
‘Ah, don’t worry: that’s going to work’?
Yes, sure: if one is ignoring the threat, that’s going to make the threat fade away. Like it’s going to fade away all the while on the frontlines… Well, why don’t we then all collectively ignore Pudding: he’s going to fade away on his own…
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Considering all of this, the actual question is: what is the point of endlessly discussing minor, ‘tactical’ changes on the battlefield – the likes of which are dominating this ‘war’ for almost exactly two years? …or counting the Russian losses? ….of ignoring the Ukrainian?
The outcome of this conflict is on the best way of being decided in the usual fashion: somewhere else, and by those profiting from it the most.
Well, OK, let’s try it, ‘anyway’…
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Kursk… with hindsight of two months, now it’s obvious: Zelensky ordered this operation to create another illusion of ‘Ukraine can, if only given the means’. In a (vain) hope he can impress the Western zombie idiots.
Arguably, the ZSU troops did great in converting the operation into a ‘Wildschweinjagd’ and mauling dozens of Russian units. For example, the troops of the 225th Assault Battalion, ZSU did great when, back on 6-7-8 August, driving nearly 40 kilometres to reach Korenevo. They have all the reasons to be proud of themselves. Alas, they didn’t capture the place. With which the fate of the entire Ukrainian operation into the Russian Federation was sealed right there. Because, without controlling Korenevo, the involved forces proved insufficient to stop a Russian counteroffensive that re-opened the road to Glushkovo. And without Glushkovo, the entire operation ended… well, actually: nowhere. It did – temporarily – secure Sudzha, but it didn’t secure the Glushkovsky District, which would be easy to defend. Therefore, the most in term of effects this operation had was to force the Keystone Cops in Moscow to withdraw a mass of troops form where they couldn’t get anywhere, either: northern Kharkiv.
Then, a month later, the brilliant GenStab-U re-deployed the 225th into a renewed attack, this time further west, over the border and directly on Glushkovo. Once again, the Ukrainian troops did their best: they breached the border defences, crossed minefields and raced into the Russian rear. Alas, by that time the Russians had not only an entire (even if depleted) naval infantry brigade, but also two VDV regiments in that area, plus have secured the road from Korenevo to Glushkovo and thus an interrupted flow of supplies.
What a surprise this time the 225th charge didn’t work… and this operation ended nowhere. Or that the Russians are meanwhile in the process of assaulting Pykhovo, south of Sudzha.
All of this is unimportant, of course. Important is that half of Ukraine can now celebrate because the Russians didn’t fulfil Pudding’s order to recover the area by 1 October…
What a brilliant victory… but, well, that’s what happens when one is running a war for propaganda, instead for military purposes. And then especially for the purpose of appeasing geriatric zombie idiots in ‘the West’…
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Northern Kharkiv… although the Russians withdrew so many of their forces from this part of Ukraine that they began losing ground in return, matter of fact is that the ZSU hasn’t got enough artillery ammo and FPVs to destroy those Russians still holding out in places like Hlyboke or along northern edges of Vovchansk.
(…not to talk about Vovchansk being completely demolished and made uninhabitable for the next 5-10 years…)
The ZSU must now hope it can recover a village or two by a painstakingly slow, methodical infantry assaults, bit-by-bit, house-by-house – and that before the next wave of the Russian mobilisation rebuilds the VSRF forces it’s facing there…
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Kupyansk-Svatove… after figuring out they can’t breach the 115th Mech, the Russians turned around and instead began assaulting north-west of Pishchane. To my big surprise, the GenStab-U then not only heard of this problem, but found the place on the map, and even moved the 1st NG Bureviy Brigade into a blocking position on time, so that this Russian effort is likely to end like 99% of the others: with yet another, completely smashed, Russian assault group.
That’s also something like ‘best news of this week’ (if not the month).
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Kremina… sadly, nothing similar happened north of Terny, where the exhausted 66th Mech was not reinforced and thus lost control over Nevske. Instead, the GenStab-U ‘solved’ the situation (read: not at all) by patching up the frontline through adding a battalion from here and a battalion from there. What a surprise three such battalions have lost Makiivka, north of Nevske…
…that’s where that with the GenStab doing its actual job – like writing a new doctrine of the ZSU, and thus taking care to improve training of ZSU officers in general – would be of use, because that would create and standardise procedures along which battalion-COs of disparate units would be taught to cooperate and coordinate with each other… but, well, I’ve discussed this only some 37 times, and even I’m getting tired of repeating myself…
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Bakhmut… at least Chasiv Yar is still holding out.
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Toretsk… after reshuffling some of forces from the Pokrovsk area to this sector, about a week ago, the Russians ‘surprisingly’ attacked all out and have reached the centre of Toretsk. As usually, the GenStab-U is patching up the frontline by deploying a miscellany of battalions… as well-known ever since Bakhmut, is a recipe for another major ‘success’…
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Pokrovsk… if there are any ‘good news’ from this area, then that the ZSU’s northern sector is – largely – holding. For something like a week now. The southern sector is a different story: sure, the 15th NG Kara-Dag is holding in Selydove, but it took the deployment of the 117th Mech to stop the Russian penetration – and thus an attempt to encircle Selydove – south of that town. The Russian assault on Hirnyk was stopped only when the ZSU re-deployed the 59th Mech to that sector. In turn, southern approaches to Kurakhivka are now held by another bunch of ‘independent battalions’…
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Vuhledar… what happened there the last week, ‘or so’ is nothing but a shame.
As first, the GenStab-U might have intended to-, but didn’t rotate out what’s left of the 72nd Mech. It left the remnants of a completely exhausted unit at its own, partially still inside the ruined town. The way things are looking right now (i.e. on basis of currently available information), the CO 72nd Mech then started organising a phased withdrawal. The GenStab-U didn’t take care to help the unit through securing flanks, but – in the light of troops inside Vuhledar posting complaints and requests for withdrawal from the ruined town - dismissed the CO 72nd Mech – and then left the Russians massacre troops still inside the town by dropping FAB-3000 and similar, free-fall bombs from their Su-24 and/or Tu-22M-3 bombers on the ruins of the town, plus massacre troops that attempted to withdraw over open fields north of it, so the town wouldn’t fall while Zelensky was (still) in the USA…
If that is truth, and it looks like it is, then…. well, I’m not pro capital punishments, and my standpoint is that one shouldn’t waste a single life. Therefore, my recommendation would be both Zelensky and Yermak, and the Commander-in-Chief of the ZSU, plus everybody in the GenStab-U who knew about all of this, but refused to quit on his own, belong being re-organised into a de-mining company and sent either to Kherson or to eastern Kharkiv.
Following approriate training, of course.
There’s simply no other way any of them to ever make good what they did here – while there is a lots of work waiting for their eyes, hands and legs there.
….and that would be a very suitable warning for whoever would replace them, so their successors might learn not to play with lives of thousands of other people.
One way or the other, and what’s worse, based on experiences from the last two years, the net result of this entire affair is going to be that the 72nd – the unit that held out at Moshchun, the unit that held out in Vuhledar for two years, and the unit that was shamefully left down by the political leadership in Kyiv, and by the entire top of the ZSU – is going to join the growing list of Ukrainian brigades that are ‘spent’ for illusions and fantasies, and then left to vegetate while ‘cannibalised’ for whatever officers and other ranks are ‘loyal’ to their superiors, so the GenStab-U can create two other new brigades, consisting of insufficiently trained mobiks.
Atop of that, the ZSU thus lost the best defence position in this part of Ukraine (it comes not out of nothing the 72nd held out in Vuhledar for two years, with no help from the GenStab-U and the rest of the ZSU, plus the PSU). It’s not only that Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka are now exposed to further Russian advances. The Russians can expect to advance all the way to the line Velyka Novosilka - Pokrovsk by the end of this year.
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I think that’s enough for today. At least have put all my frustration ‘to paper’…
Thanks for reading all the way to here.
Thank you a lot for sharing all your thoughts and putting an effort into writing these articles for several years already.
I feel more and more sad as time passes to see another bosnian scenario happening very likely, where global and local oligarchs are going to fill their pockets, leaving common people (at least those who manage to stay alive) drowning in what is left of their lives years and years after all of this is once finished.
Today I learned tragic news about one of my fellow countrymen. It turned out they were transferred from the south of Ukraine to Ugledar. Out of a hundred people, only five people survived who were able to break through. He himself was covering the retreat and shot himself. My brother's friend was also with him, he went missing.