I read it first in English and later on in German. In German, its title is "Im Westen nichts neues," literally "Nothing new in the West," not nearly so dramatic...
Thanks for the update. In a (hope, near) future, it may be cristal clear the reasons behind to this counterattack. For the moment seems to me to be a desperate measure, RuZZians trying, to high costs, to stop the Ukrainian advances.
Looks like old soviet tactics - throw counterattacks with purpose of degrading the attacking units, and winning time to assemble more units in the rear. Soviet Union used that during Nazi drive in 1942 - by throwing newly formed divisions at German drive to Caucus (and Stalingrad).
Eventually it worked for Red Army - when Paulus army (6th Army and 4th Tank Army) ended up in Stalingrad degraded with very few tanks.
Regarding the agriculture: the old rich Ukrainian family agriculture was devastated by Stalin in late 1920s and early 1930s, probably with the goal of subordinating peasantry to the Communist rule. All the cattle that people had was taken to state-managed collective farms and starved there. Fruit trees were cut because of enormous taxation. Farmers that grew relatively rich before the Communist Revolution were taken to Siberia or shot, their goods confiscated and their children starving to death. That was followed by an artificial famine that killed millions of Ukrainian peasants.
With the most able villagers murdered, there was none to restore the agriculture on the liberated (or re-conquered?) land.
Thanks for your update. Today Ukrainian media reported about successes of VSU in the West near Robotine and near Kishchiivka and Andriivka. But there are no changes in Deep State Map.
Success sometimes means a raid few km into enemies lines, knock out something valuable and retreat to starting positions after some hours or a day or so. Sometimes it also means to knock out a few foremost positions without any advances.
Oh gosh: yes! Such 'raids' have caused several of my biggest mistakes: report was like 'we've reached Robotyne', and I reported correspondingly; actually, they pushed forward for 5km, run into an unknown minefield, lost two vehicles, then withdrew....
I would not make heroical mongols who caused one of the major reasons why capital moved from Kyiv to Moscow, establishment of Crimean tatars ( 400 years of annual raids and war between Ukraine and Crimea ) .
Not to mention establishing of eastern despotical state culture in Moscovia which caused a lot if troubles for Europe
These days all that we are talking about is hundreds of meters here and there. Tom himself estimated yesterday that it would take a week to liberate Kyurdimivka, a village of 100, 200? What changes in the map....
Just because of that your Ukrainian readers are very thankful for your reports. Many of your reports are translated and published in Ukrainian media namely in our main military internet cite "Cenzor.net".
Thx, have heard of that (can't open the Censor.net, though).
Mind, however, that a lot of what I'm reporting isn't 'confirmed beyond any doubt'. Indeed, it's often influenced by 'fog of war'.
Classic example was a case from early in the counteroffensive, when a squad of the 47th reached Robotyne, run into a minefield, lost two vehicles and was forced to withdraw. Yet, they've reported 'reached Robotyne', and 'even the Russians confirmed' this.... but then, it turned out it was really, just a 'raid'. Something of temporary nature. They withdrew and the Russians 'sealed a gap' in their defences (and then had two MRAPs to show as 'trophies' and claim 'counteroffensive failed').
So, I might be 'days ahead', but on the other hand: many of things I report turn out slightly different. Eventually, we really know only some 2-14 days later, when 'related videos reach the social media'.
At the Zaporizhzhya NPP, the Russian occupiers transferred power unit No. 4 from the “cold shutdown” state to the “hot shutdown” with non-compliance with the requirements of the licenses of the State Nuclear Regulatory Authority of Ukraine. This further increased the likelihood of a radiation accident at the station, reports NNEGC Energoatom.
Remember the dam when they got kicked at Kherson.....
Tom, I've heard that over Zaporizhzhia oblast was struck the missile by Mig 29. It was 02 October 2023. And today this situation has repeated another one. I don't know what kind the aircraft but the missile was struck over Zaporizhzhia city at 03:00 pm (local time). I have heard clearly the aircraft engines.
Perhaps this is not directly connected with the counter attack theme, but nevertheless:
-Swedish parliment has just decided about another military aid package. Said to consist mainly of artillery ammo, worth approx. 200 million USD.
-Swedish cabinet has today formally tasked the Swedish armed forces to evaluate the possibility to send (give?) JAS39C Gripen to Ukraine. (We don’t have any older versions to send, I suppose they would be of the latest configuration)
Since this would mean reducing our strength, a Swedish NATO-membership is expected to be needed. Otherwise the risk would become too high.
Of course. However, US has approved export licences in the past; Gripens have been exported to Hungary, South Africa, Czechia, Thailand and Brazil. Since US is itself supporting Ukraine and has approved export of F-16, I doubt that they would object in this case.
You’re right again. But if Sweden eventually can part with modern aircraft, that have been considered very useful for Ulraine, good. If US govt. then blocks this for obscure reasons, shame on them!
Question: isn’t it very difficult for the Russians to organize such a counter attack? I mean isn’t a large troop concentration easily detected?
And thank you for your work and keeping posting, is there some way to support your work (besides buying your books)?
I read it first in English and later on in German. In German, its title is "Im Westen nichts neues," literally "Nothing new in the West," not nearly so dramatic...
The title of this novel in Russian: На Западном фронте без перемен/ No changes on the Western front. No pathos.
Spike explained it nicely.
Thanks for the update. In a (hope, near) future, it may be cristal clear the reasons behind to this counterattack. For the moment seems to me to be a desperate measure, RuZZians trying, to high costs, to stop the Ukrainian advances.
Thank you very much.
Looks like old soviet tactics - throw counterattacks with purpose of degrading the attacking units, and winning time to assemble more units in the rear. Soviet Union used that during Nazi drive in 1942 - by throwing newly formed divisions at German drive to Caucus (and Stalingrad).
Eventually it worked for Red Army - when Paulus army (6th Army and 4th Tank Army) ended up in Stalingrad degraded with very few tanks.
Would it work for ruzzia... I doubt.
What is "LL"?
Probably Lend-Lease
I remember seeing old pix of the Russians painting over the country of origin of LL materiel...
Land Lease gave only 4% of weapons which Soviet produced during the war.
Also result of the war was designed in 41-mid43 when there was very little Land Lease.
Now Ukrainians feel exactly the same: slow Land Lease and only if you are winning. If west feels you have a draw - very little help.
If you are loosing - "5000 helmets from Germany, 72 stingers from US" as they did before the war.
But PR effect from land lease on the west is like its a critical for war.
Regarding the agriculture: the old rich Ukrainian family agriculture was devastated by Stalin in late 1920s and early 1930s, probably with the goal of subordinating peasantry to the Communist rule. All the cattle that people had was taken to state-managed collective farms and starved there. Fruit trees were cut because of enormous taxation. Farmers that grew relatively rich before the Communist Revolution were taken to Siberia or shot, their goods confiscated and their children starving to death. That was followed by an artificial famine that killed millions of Ukrainian peasants.
With the most able villagers murdered, there was none to restore the agriculture on the liberated (or re-conquered?) land.
What is a 247th VDV division? There's a 247th VDV regiment which is a part of a 7th VDV division, isn't there?
247th VDV Regiment.
Thanks for your update. Today Ukrainian media reported about successes of VSU in the West near Robotine and near Kishchiivka and Andriivka. But there are no changes in Deep State Map.
deepstatemap is very conservative with mapping ukrainian advance.
I know this but still we wait for such news.
Success sometimes means a raid few km into enemies lines, knock out something valuable and retreat to starting positions after some hours or a day or so. Sometimes it also means to knock out a few foremost positions without any advances.
Oh gosh: yes! Such 'raids' have caused several of my biggest mistakes: report was like 'we've reached Robotyne', and I reported correspondingly; actually, they pushed forward for 5km, run into an unknown minefield, lost two vehicles, then withdrew....
:D
I would not make heroical mongols who caused one of the major reasons why capital moved from Kyiv to Moscow, establishment of Crimean tatars ( 400 years of annual raids and war between Ukraine and Crimea ) .
Not to mention establishing of eastern despotical state culture in Moscovia which caused a lot if troubles for Europe
These days all that we are talking about is hundreds of meters here and there. Tom himself estimated yesterday that it would take a week to liberate Kyurdimivka, a village of 100, 200? What changes in the map....
There are fundamental differences between the ways 'they' and 'me' are working.
Kyiv = reports only about what's 10000015% sure (and of advantage for Ukraine). Thus, always some 4-5 days 'late'.
DeepState = similar, though only if confirmed by videos. Thus, always some 7-10 days 'late'.
Me = reporting what contacts report, plus what I think is safe to report. Thus, always some 24-48 hours 'late'.
Just because of that your Ukrainian readers are very thankful for your reports. Many of your reports are translated and published in Ukrainian media namely in our main military internet cite "Cenzor.net".
The site is https://censor.net/ (Not "z", but "s" in "censor".)
Thx, have heard of that (can't open the Censor.net, though).
Mind, however, that a lot of what I'm reporting isn't 'confirmed beyond any doubt'. Indeed, it's often influenced by 'fog of war'.
Classic example was a case from early in the counteroffensive, when a squad of the 47th reached Robotyne, run into a minefield, lost two vehicles and was forced to withdraw. Yet, they've reported 'reached Robotyne', and 'even the Russians confirmed' this.... but then, it turned out it was really, just a 'raid'. Something of temporary nature. They withdrew and the Russians 'sealed a gap' in their defences (and then had two MRAPs to show as 'trophies' and claim 'counteroffensive failed').
So, I might be 'days ahead', but on the other hand: many of things I report turn out slightly different. Eventually, we really know only some 2-14 days later, when 'related videos reach the social media'.
Your readers are not severe judges. Here is a link to the last publication of your analysis of October 3-d in Censor.net : https://censor.net/ua/blogs/3447294/tom_kuper_oglyad_boyiovyh_diyi_stanom_3_jovtnya
I have 2 Maps i look at, but they seems to be days since last update. That might be a good sign :-)
At the Zaporizhzhya NPP, the Russian occupiers transferred power unit No. 4 from the “cold shutdown” state to the “hot shutdown” with non-compliance with the requirements of the licenses of the State Nuclear Regulatory Authority of Ukraine. This further increased the likelihood of a radiation accident at the station, reports NNEGC Energoatom.
Remember the dam when they got kicked at Kherson.....
:(
S400 has reportedly been damaged by Ukrainian drones in Belgorod region.
Its nice being protected by wast minefields, but if they want to cut of the bulge, they will have to go through this obstacle of their own making.
from what i´ve heard, no, they abosletely haven´t got a clue
Thanks for the report Tom I like it
Russians are trying to avoid any bad news before Putin's birthday
Tom, I've heard that over Zaporizhzhia oblast was struck the missile by Mig 29. It was 02 October 2023. And today this situation has repeated another one. I don't know what kind the aircraft but the missile was struck over Zaporizhzhia city at 03:00 pm (local time). I have heard clearly the aircraft engines.
https://imgur.com/fOGesGv
https://t.me/suspilnezaporizhzhya/17664
What happened to Ivan?
Perhaps this is not directly connected with the counter attack theme, but nevertheless:
-Swedish parliment has just decided about another military aid package. Said to consist mainly of artillery ammo, worth approx. 200 million USD.
-Swedish cabinet has today formally tasked the Swedish armed forces to evaluate the possibility to send (give?) JAS39C Gripen to Ukraine. (We don’t have any older versions to send, I suppose they would be of the latest configuration)
Since this would mean reducing our strength, a Swedish NATO-membership is expected to be needed. Otherwise the risk would become too high.
even if the discussion was about older Gripens, they would need a US export license first (USA engine etc)
Of course. However, US has approved export licences in the past; Gripens have been exported to Hungary, South Africa, Czechia, Thailand and Brazil. Since US is itself supporting Ukraine and has approved export of F-16, I doubt that they would object in this case.
Nothing is obvious in war. Some faction may well block exporting the Gripen in order to push for F-16s, for example...
You’re right again. But if Sweden eventually can part with modern aircraft, that have been considered very useful for Ulraine, good. If US govt. then blocks this for obscure reasons, shame on them!