Ukraine War, 4 October 2023
Hello everybody!
Just a 'mini-shorty' for today: as it turned out a few hours after I've filled my report yesterday, the Russian VDV launched an 'all-out' counteroffensive on the flanks of the Ukrainian 'bulge' in between Robotyne and Verbove, yesterday.
West (Robotyne-Novoprokopivka): 104th VDV/76th VDV Division + 70th MRR + 1429th MRR
East (Verbove-Novofedorivka): 247th VDV/7th VDV Divisioon + 22nd Spetsnaz
Obvious aim: ‘cut off’ that bulge.
Pay attention: except for the 70th MRR, all of these units are from 'strategic reserve', nothing from the 58th CAA.
Me thinks: sure, the fighting is (and will be) heavy, but there's no way this to succeed (also becaue the pincer attack appeared to be poorly-coordinated: the western counterattacks hit Robotyne and Novoprokopivka, while the eastern went in direction of Mala Tokmachka).
Indeed, some are even reporting that the counterattack was already repulsed and the Russians gave up, and that by the evening the ZSU ‘returned’ to completing the liberation of Novoprokopivka (RUMINT is that it’s clearing the last Russian pockets of resistance in the south, as of this morning). Apparently, the 47th and 116th Mech never even ‘stopped’ their drive down the two anti-tank ditches).
Guess (not only mine, but that of ZSU troops in the bulge) is that this is ‘another Klishchivka situation’, or that the Russians are trying to buy time for something - though we’re not sure what: perhaps to cover the withdrawal of decimated units of the 19th and 42nd MRD, and VDV, or improve defence lines further south?
UPDATE: something for those declaring me ‘traditionally optimistic’, here the first of ‘impressions’ from the battlefield west of Robotyne, in the last two days…
Question: isn’t it very difficult for the Russians to organize such a counter attack? I mean isn’t a large troop concentration easily detected?
And thank you for your work and keeping posting, is there some way to support your work (besides buying your books)?
Looks like old soviet tactics - throw counterattacks with purpose of degrading the attacking units, and winning time to assemble more units in the rear. Soviet Union used that during Nazi drive in 1942 - by throwing newly formed divisions at German drive to Caucus (and Stalingrad).
Eventually it worked for Red Army - when Paulus army (6th Army and 4th Tank Army) ended up in Stalingrad degraded with very few tanks.
Would it work for ruzzia... I doubt.