131 Comments

Hi, Tom!

You said that supplying Ukraine with F-16 jets would not make the huge difference on the battlefield. However, Russia was able to successfully make UMPK glide bombs and Ukraine could do nothing with that. So, will Ukraine be able to launch 100+ JDAM glide bombs daily after receiving F-16 jets? Or it is very dangerous due to Russian S-400 SAMs? Are JDAM-ER glide bombs better that Russian UMPK glide bombs?

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

lol with what ? 4 to 6 F-16 ? And with a maximum of 50 bombs per months if everything is going well?

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Let's suppose that each F-16 can carry two heavy JDAMs (2000lb version).

If we suppose that there are six jets available for such a mission (and six more escort F-16), that gives a dozen JDAMs per sortie.

So, supposing two sorties per day, we would expect at best two dozen JDAMs per day, under ideal conditions.

Do you want a hundred JDAMs hitting Russian positions per day? You need more than fifty F-16s in flying condition and manned, in order to do both bombing runs and cover against ground-based air defence and Sukhois

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To give a sense of human resources needed, a Eurofighter Typhoon squadron (about a dozen jets) needs approximately 200 ground personnel to support its operations when moving around.

So, for four (minimum) squadrons needed for the amount of tonnage to throw at the enemy, you would need 800+ ground personnel to support, maintain, rearm these jets and sustain a high tempo of operations (and that's not discussing the logistics for spare parts, weapons, fuel etc). It's not only pilots who need training and support.

In practice, because your air force will suffer losses, you need at least six squadrons, in order to be able to absorb losses, retrain and rotate units while using these airframes in war operations.

If I was tasked with rebuilding the Ukraine air force, I would have started an effort to train 100+ new English-speaking air cadets two years ago, plus a group of 1000 ground personnel. That's a great monetary and time cost (if I remember correctly, training a new pilot costs around 12 million USD per pilot in western air forces).

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I guess in wartime, you will go for a 80/20 solution. That makes your numbers less scary.

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May 5·edited May 5

Can you expand into this, please?

I don't understand your argument.

The problem with creating a new air force is that you don't have the luxury to make basic training, then send the crews to battle immediately. The losses of crews and jets will be extremely high before they accumulate enough experience and survive

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Nope, i can't substantiante my claim. It's only a gut feeling, that the involved parties will find a efficient solution. But sure, it's still expensive.

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May 4·edited May 4

Hi Tom, Thanks for the post. Regarding NATO surveillance in the air around Ukraine and the Black sea. I guess Ukraine can get very detailed coordinates about in which area RU have their air defence and other important objects. Do they get this intelligence 24/7? What can you say about that ?

Brgds Christian

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Ty for the updates Tom. Impressive work by the 3rd SSO! Cant wait for them to receive the Shark UAV so they can make more Russian stuff go kaboom. Anyways thanks again and can’t wait for your next post.

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Meanwhile an official investigation has been started in the 115 brigade.

https://suspilne.media/donbas/737553-u-115-j-brigadi-vidreaguvali-na-zvinuvacenna-pro-krah-oboroni-oceretinogo-na-doneccini/

How it reflects on the combat effectiveness of the brigade nobody knows.

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Whenever Russians strike some high value target like HIMARS, or IRIS-T in this case, it’s “up to you to decide whether or not it’s real”… Hahah, how pathetic!

And let me remind you, just recently when the Russians struck Ukr MiG-29s on the ground, you said “looks like in Russia they find satisfaction in destroying decoys” and a day later it turned out those were actually MiG-29s…

You say that three Russians are being captured per week? Woooow, I wonder if they can recover from such losses… Let’s ignore that there are 30.000 Ukr in Russian captivity, compared to what - few hundred Russians? Btw, just this week I think I saw more than three captured Ukr… what an achivement by the Russian army!

Also, it’s funny how, when Russians hit HIMARS in Kharkov region some 4 days ago, you didn’t pay any attention to that… Just like when ANOTHER HIMARS got struck two days ago in same area…

You, who support Ukraine, never cease to amaze me with your downplaying of Russian successes…

Good news btw, ANOTHER Abrams and Bradley have been destroyed today 😊

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Nobody is forcing you to read Tom's reports so get lost orc.

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Yes, yes, I know, you’re right… BUT, since I support Russia and usually read their news, I want to have an insight to some other pov in order to get better picture… Truth is somewhere in the middle they say, so with that in mind, I read his reports. No need to defend him, I’m sure he will see my comment and say smth…

Thanks for repplying though, since you’re hurt by what I’ve shared and right away charchterized me as an “orc”, I know I am on the right track, so once again, thank you 👍

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Only unscrupulous rascals support Russia.

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Than I am one of them.

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Sure. Alas the like of you are numerous. This is the everlasting battle of good and evil.

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You mean like between the Jedi and the Sith ?

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Don't upset Elena, you orc.

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😂😂😂 Sorry sir, I’ wont

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Last time I was preparing to say I am sorry for you and what happened in Serbia (I sincerely am), but it's good I didn't. It is clear now you never thought NOT to wage war. You just need to kill some people and to enjoy that. In this case I have to remind you that you lost. A, and yes: the Russians have destroyed all the Ukrainian planes many many times so far, and all of the armored vehicles several times also. No lies here, for sure.

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May 4·edited May 4

Wait, what? As someone who has been subjected to cruelty of NATO bombs (actually I wasn’t even born at the time, but my whole family suffered losing one member and forced to leave their homes), you say I like what is going on in Ukraine? Btw, why did you hesitate to write anything about NATO bombing of Serbia, if you really feel sorry? Maybe I should have waited another… you tell?

“In this case I have to remind you that you lost”. Oh, really? Who could have expected that small Serbia with 7 million population could handle 19 most developed countries at the time? Yet, for 78 days, NATO inflicted minimal losses, and Serbian forces on the ground didn’t move an inch, despite hundreds of NATO jets that used depleted uranium (forbidden by international law), carpet bombing by strategic aviation (American B-52s) , despite Albanian terrorists being trained, supplied and commanded by NATO military instructors, despite Serbian forces being totally outnumbered… Can you imagine what would the outcome of that war be if Serbia received only 10% of what Ukraine is given today?

Btw, can’t you see that exactly the same is happening right now in Ukraine? The West supplies, trains, even participates with AWACSs and satellites, and others (Ukrainians) are dying for them!

Regarding Russian claims about entire Ukr air force fleet being annihilated - I already said that’s nonsense, but what I was referring to now was that in the recent Russian strikes, Ukr lost a couple of MiG-29s and Mr Tom Cooper at first (without thinking I suppose) said they were decoys, only to be proven wrong… I suppose that’s what happens when you “don’t have time to cross-check Russian claims”, Mr Cooper.

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Why to give Serbia weapons? To destroy all the other nations in Yugoslavia? It's like giving everything to Russia, to destroy the entire Ukraine. Oh, wait. This is what you want.

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May 4·edited May 4

That wasn’t my point. We did not expect and therefore did not ask anyone to give us weapons.

My point was: if the small Serbian army with outdated Soviet tech could fight an entire NATO for 78 days straight, without suffering big let alone heavy losses as one would have expected, can you imagine what we would be capable of if we had just 10% of Ukrainian Western supplied arsenal?

When we shot down an F-117 using 1960s SAM, they call it luck. When we use decoys and inflict heavy losses on our enemy, nobody wrote any articles about it. Everything you see that Ukraine does with succes, we also did 25 years ago. So here in Serbia, even if 80-90% people heavily support Russia, from time to time we praise Ukrainian resistance, exactly because we were in same situation, or actually much more complicated (the only thing NATO did was not dropping a nuke on us…)

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Btw, If you really read my comment (the one you wanted to exprees how sorry you are), you would know that it was and still is in our BEST INTEREST not to fight anyone, let a lone NATO. A nation that, to this day, can’t recover from 1.300.000 losses of WW1 (just considering WW1, without the second which saw another 1.000.000 human lives taken) wanted to kill people just for funn? Are you nuts?

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I didn't say you killed for fun, you said it. What I just said was that you should have considered NOT to wage a war. But you didn't. Even now it is not crossing your mind that you should have not started a war in the first place. And Ukraine has done nothing to you. But you cheer Russia here just because you can and because you hate NATO. It is your opinion and you are entitled to it; it doesn't mean it is truth or you are right. So if people here don't take your Russian sources as God, as you do, it's their right as well. Happy Easter!

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This is what you said: “You just need to kill some people and to enjoy that”. So when I say - you portray us as some kind of bloodthirsty animals - that’s were I came from.

Actually, Russia should have finished the job ten years ago and all this bloodshed wouldn’t have happened, at least nowhere near this scale… And no, Russia did not start all of this, but who am I talking to…

Ukraine did nothing to me you say? Maybe, but in 2019. there were two football matches between Serbia and Ukraine and the Ukrainian team Dinamo Kiev and Croatian team Dinamo Zagreb… During both games, Ukrainian fans (and later Ukrainian and Croatian fans) shouted “Russian whore”, “Kill the Serb” etc. … This might seem “silly” and not representative of the whole Ukr nation, but when they say Ukraine is defending democratic values, their stupidity is making me mad, ‘cause NATO used the same excuse to “intervene” in my country.

Last but not least, Serbian government condemned Russian invasion and even provided help to Ukraine (medical supplies and that sorts of things) but Ukrainian officials still support separatist Albanians in Kosovo.

I don’t want people to take my Russian sources as you say. I know they won’t take them (at least most of them won’t), but I like to be different than the others (not like special in some egoistic, pretentious fashion or whatever) - it’s just to easy to be like others. And trust me, I apply the same mindset here in Serbia, where, from time to time, I visit some Serbian telegram channel, where most people are like “Putin is the best”, “Russia is crushing NATO” and other bs… They even expelled me from one of the most popular channels which covers Ukraine war, just because I asked a simple and logical question which didn’t favor Russia and I wasn’t even claiming anything, yet they labeled me as “Ustasa” (Croatian fascists during WW2), ”NATO troll” and so on… The same warm welcome I get on the pro-Ukrainian channels, like this one. But hey, I`m not complaining, just saying as it is.

Happy Easter to you as well!

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> Let’s ignore that there are 30.000 Ukr in Russian captivity

-- Where did you get the number from?

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Both Russian sources and some western articles I’ve read. Truth to be told, they are not all Ukrainian army personnel, but also border guards, territorial defence and so on…

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Would you please bring in a few links to the articles?

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Six days ago, The New York Times article said nearly 3.000 Ukr have been released (Zelensky on the other hand confirmed 3.135 as of February 9th 2024.) while more than 10.000 remain in Russian custody…

From the Russian side, I have info from journalist Jury Podolyaka (he has a tg chanel btw), saying 28.000 captives of whom 90% are UAF.

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10000 is not 30000.

A Russian tg channel with a journalist quoting a qualified info is not a very reliable source.

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10.000 remaining + 3.000 = no less than 13.000

Regarding Jury Podlyaka, I would agree with you in most cases, but he is one of the rare Russians who are quite realistic, often criticizing Russian command and showing admiration to bravery of Ukrainian soldiers (though I rarely see anyone praising the Russians when they show bravery and resilliance…)

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A lot of people can read Russian sources. The issue is what you buy from there and what you do not. You are a good example of the propaganda success. For everyone to understand that Putin will not lose support.

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Maybe the 30000 children abducted by the russians?

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15000 were declared MiA as of autumn 23.

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Flanker doesn't know Russian/Ukrainian or just doesn't have great reading capabilities. There are thousands of Ukrainian civilians reported as captured, including a list of about 19 000 children. When it comes to military, Russia violates international law (surprise!) and doesn't communicate the names of prisoners, but it is estimated that the real number is not around 4 500 as communicated by Moscow, but more likely around 8 000. That would cover a part of the approximately 15 000 Ukrainian soldiers reported as disappeared. 30 000 Ukrainian soldiers in captivity is obviously stupid and unrealistic, so it makes sense that a Putinist would suggest such non-sense.

Ukraine has less Russian captives because Russians like to die more than to be captured, perhaps believing their own propaganda. That's why so many commit suicide on the battlefield. Still, the Ukrainian authorities have announced the opening of a third POW camp, so I guess there are not so few of them.

Also, about 2 500 POWs from both sides have been exchanged since the beginning of the war...

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If, according to Ukrainian officials, by June 3rd 2022. there were 5.600 captured soldiers and 7.200 missing SOLDIERS, or 12.800 in total POWs and MIAs after just three months, can you imagine how many are they now? Let me remind you that just during Avdiivka evacuation there were 850 to 1.000 Ukr POWs and MIAs!

Regarding Russian soldiers commiting suicide… it is a well known fact that only if you are scared of falling into enemy hands, you commit suicide, and why would they be scared? Maybe because there are tons of video materials depicting mass execustions by Ukr soldiers from the very first days of the war! On the other hand, there is absolutely ZERO evidence of torturing or whatever bs western media and organizations claim - ZERO!

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> "by June 3rd 2022. there were 5.600 captured soldiers"

-- Most of them (5000?) were defenders of Azovstal, some were captured in the first days of the assault.

>"there is absolutely ZERO evidence of torturing or whatever bs western media and organizations claim - ZERO!"

https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/coiukraine/A-78-540-AEV.pdf

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Not true. There were 3.500-4.000 captured in Mariupol (with Azovstal “defenders” (rats)).

Sorry, but what you’ve shared means absolutely nothing to me.

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>"Not true. There were 3.500-4.000 captured in Mariupol"

-- What is not true? 3.5 or 4K make more than a half of 5600.

>"means absolutely nothing to me"

-- That's a UN report. Which other proofs do you believe to be reliable? A video of cutting off head? Or you think that Russian soldiers behave better than Russian police?

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> ZERO evidence of torturing

I personally know witnesses of the massacres of civilians in Irpin and Butcha. Don't tell me there is no proof.

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Aha, so you know witnesses, not the victims… ok ok

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The victims are dead.

Which proof do you have that the massacres did not take place?

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Regarding 15,000 MIA. That figure has been announced in the December 2022 (along with the number of POW: 3,400) and then has been repeated unchanged by press and by some officials (incl. the Minister of Internal Affairs in 2023). There is a strong opinion that large if not the most part of 15,000 were KIA, unfortunately.

Publications based on the research, not rumors are rare due to the fog of war, of course.

A couple of articles from the experts who study the subject since 2014. Highly recommended:

https://tyzhden.ua/oboronozdatnist-lyshaietsia-nepokhytnoiu-bojovi-j-nebojovi-vtraty-ukrainy-u-2022-2023-rokakh-ii/

https://tyzhden.ua/bojovi-ta-nebojovi-vtraty-ukrainy-u-2022-2023-rokakh/

P.S. We should not feed the troll, should we?

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No we should not. Hand him his dunce cap and let him go sit in the corner…..

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probably he also counts those who were murdered during surrender.

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My bad, up to 30.000 were captured throughout entire war, that doesn’t mean they are all in Russian captivity right now as my first comment suggested… Many had been exchanged.

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Usually when there's a strike on a system containing some sort of rockets there's a characteristic cookoff after the hit. This seemed to be missing in this strike.

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Which strike are you talking about?

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author
May 4·edited May 4Author

Many times I simply do not have the time to cross-check what are the Russians claiming. Primarily because the mass of their 'evidence' is no evidence at all. Their claim for 'destruction of IRIS-T SAM-site' is a good example: I can't make out what have they hit there. Thus, I'm leaving it to readers to decide.

But hey: I've explained that Ukraine has already lost this war - because the Russians captured another destroyed M1 Abrams.

And, as must be obvious to everybody after two years of this fracas: everything is developing along the plan. Precisely, and systematically. Here you have Pudding saying so, back in early March 2022:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pA9Wf4_RrM

So, actually: no idea why do you complain?

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If things are not going according to plan as Putin or whoever said they are, that doesn’t mean they are catastrophic either, you know. You are aware that the Russian army of some 150.000 man + 50.000 militia fighters equipped with two AK magazines and a grenade at the time, managed to conquer like 20% of Ukraine?

When Russia lost A-50(s) AWACS, you had no problem writting article after article, but when Ukraine lost two HIMARS in the span of last seven days (one of which you didn’t acknowledged (yet)), nothing. Ok mister truth, keep doing what you do the best.

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author

Troops? What Russian troops? ....and that in Ukraine?

It was militia fighters only. Little Green Men. Perhaps 50 of them.

Is that confirming your decision to call me Mr. Truth now?

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I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say?

My point was that Russian forces of some 200.000 people conquered 20% of Ukraine in year 2022.

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author

Oh, thanks: you've made it more than obvious you do not understand what am I doing.

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Thanks for clarifying, did not expect any better from you.

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Respect to the second best army in the world.

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THE BEST*

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interesting specimen. Not a troll paid by the RS but apparently really buying into the rascist fairy tales and the coming kingdom of messiah Putin.

Yet strange that having been the victim of NATO aggression you now take the side of the aggressor and not of the victim.

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Right.

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Your answers are proof that you are a paid troll.

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Guess what, I don’t give a shit what you think I am.

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Btw your first comment was that I’m not a paid troll 😂 Can you decide already?

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yes, you ran out of arguments quite quickly.

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If you say so.

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Well that’s the thing. We know the best what NATO is capable of and how they are manipulating.

The moment nazi Germany “lost” (actually they just shifted to US), Americans and their allies took over their ambitions of being the world’s greatest force which would impose their will and views all around the world and they call it - democracy.

Let me remind you of smth I consider to be very important: when Berlin was conquered by the Soviets, gen Zhukov said: “they (the nazis) will NEVER forgive us”. Some 75 years later, Angela Merkel straightforwardly admited that Germany made “fool” out of Russia back in 2014. - In a recent interview with a German publication, former Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the 2014 ceasefire agreement under the Minsk Protocol was meant to give Ukraine time to build up its military. She admitted that Russia could easily have overrun Ukrainian troops in 2015 and doubted if NATO countries could have done as much then as they do.

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1. The nazis are gone and irrelevant for this discussion.

The funny thing is that the new would-be nazis in Europe are actually financed by the Kremlin mafia.

2. Putin is the one who was making fools of the rest of Europe and some still believe his fairy tales. Around 30% my country's population would vote for his clowns according to recent polls.

3. My country and my grandfathers were on the side of the nazis and I am infinitely thankful to both the US allies army and the Soviet army that they lost. And I know many people from eastern and southeastern Europe who are happy to having been liberated from both nazi and later from soviet terror and now live in what is called democracy. And I hope to live to the day when both Ukraine and Russia will be liberated from the rascist terror regime hiding in the Kremlin.

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Don’t get me wrong, I hate communism and understand that some nations were subjected to “Soviet terror”, but let’s be honest - we are talking about Hungarians, Poles, Finns and few others who were ALL on the nazi side and fought against the Soviets (the same ones you are grateful) and even during WW1 on the side of Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary etc). Even ex communist countries like Bulgaria, Slovakia, including my country Serbia (Yugoslavia back then) have majority of population supporting Russia or at least against supporting Ukraine…

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I know and I wonder what exactly they are hoping for.

Which benefits do you expect from a victory of Putin that justifies the destruction of Mariupol, Charkiv and other cities and the raping and bombing of civilians?

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Destruction of cities is less important, since they will be rebuilt one day, just like Mariupol. I’m sorry but what did you expect from cities like Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka, when these were turned into fortresses and fighting took place inside of each for months? Only the cities in eastern Ukraine where fighting is taking place are being reduced to rubble, but look at Kiev for example… as far as I could see, people live normaly like there is no war - there is simply no destruction of large scale. Russia has only recently targeted power plants and some other infrastructure, but the Ukrainians are doing the same so I don’t see anything problematic about it.

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I owe you the answer about “the benefits”. The most important will be that Ukrainian army won’t be capable of inflicting damage to Russians living in Donbas and Russia itself as we knew it before 2022.

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Your comment about Poles being on Nazi side suggests major deficiencies of the knowledge of the region. Soviet terror in Poland was implemented by Soviets and Nazis working together:

1. In September of 1939, Nazi Germany and Soviet Union have allied to invade Poland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact)

2. On 22.09.1939, Wehrmacht and Red Army have held a military parade together (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_military_parade_in_Brest-Litovsk)

3. From 1939 to 1940 NKVD and Gestapo have run several conferences together aimed at suppressing Polish Resistance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestapo%E2%80%93NKVD_conferences)

4. For the reasons given above Poles had the right to hate Soviets, yet, contrary to many other countries (including Serbia), Poland has not formed any Waffen SS troops (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffen-SS_foreign_volunteers_and_conscripts)

5. Soviet and Nazi cooperation continued after war. Nazi scientists have been essential for development of post WWII Soviet military industry. For our esteemed host: here's the story of the real father of Soviet rocketry, Helmut Gröttrup (in Polish: https://eksperymentmyslowy.pl/2024/03/23/wspolnota-czerwieni-cz-55/; https://eksperymentmyslowy.pl/2024/03/28/wspolnota-czerwieni-cz-56/; https://eksperymentmyslowy.pl/2024/04/05/wspolnota-czerwieni-cz-57/)

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Good news about hitting and destroying important Russian targets.

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you very much.

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Once again. I feel sorry that NATO had to bomb Serbia (wish it was a another solution) and I am sorry for your family losses. But don't speak here like Serbia was a nice friendly country and NATO started bombing all of a sudden. This is simply very far from truth. And what about the documented war crimes of Serbia?

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What of all the events that led up to the NATO intervention?

Russia, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia...it's amazing how all the authoritarian governments are victims of a worldwide conspiracy. No wonder they're justified.

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I was trying to reply to Flanker, from Serbia. You should reply to him. He wrote many things about Serbia and NATO.

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I understand. I was trying to support your statement.

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Thank you! Even if sometimes seems to no avail, I think we should not give up explaining. Communication with the people with opposing opinions is very important. For both sides.

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It does seem futile when some people squeal with glee while millions of lives are uprooted and thousands die, all to spread authoritarian rule to as many people as possible. I wonder how these people think it will benefit them.

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It's classic Russian narrative. Serbian nationalist follow it faithfully: their nation have never made anything bad, no massacres - it was just defense, other party always attacked first, etc. Fortunately, unlike in Russia, there is good portion of Serbs who aren't like that.

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The last time Serbia attacked someone was in 1885. and it was Bulgaria.

Balkan wars, WW1, WW2 and 1990s were all defensive wars and if you say otherwise, you’re either ignorant or an idiot.

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May 5·edited May 5

1st balkan war was most definitely offensive. Sure, it was a liberation war and such, but that does not make it defensive.

2nd balkan war... to be frank, as a Bulgarian I learned at school how Bulgaria was "forced" to attack, and was in fact the victim. Later I read some real history and realized that was bullshit. Ferdinand was just an idiot and nobody forced him to be such. Just like nobody is forcing Putin right now. Nationalist propaganda is a really dumb idea and sadly still exists in subtle ways everywhere.

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Like you said, the First Balkan war was liberation war and as such, every nation involved had absolute right to kick filthy Turks out of Balkan.

Brother, you can’t just look at current situation as it wasn’t a result of decade, and sometimes centuries old, events. This war in Ukraine didn’t start because Putin woke up on Feb 24th 2022. and said “hey, let’s invade Ukraine, because why not”.

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Actually I think that's exactly why this war is happening. Yes, from Putin's speaches and interviews it's obvious that for him events decades, centuries and even millenia are a factor in his decisions. But it's his personal choice to make them a factor.

If history was as deterministic as to preclude personal choice we'd already be at WW15 or something, you can definitely find enough "just causes" for this in history that you'd expect to lead to inevitable war but various leaders looked at those and said "Nah, war isn't my cup of tea".

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I am starting to wonder if you are reading my comments…

Let me say it loud and clear - Serbs have commited crimes, but here’s the problem, the West is trying to present like we were the only ones commiting crimes while in fact Bosnians, Croatians and Albanians commited much much heavier crimes.

Honestly, I generaly don’t like my Serbian people, because we like to live in belief that everything bad that happens to us is everyone else’s fault, and not a consequence of our own flaws… We are very primitive and ignorant, but it’s not like our neighbourhood is any better.

But to say that we commited crimes (which ones again I don’t try to deny) while completely ignoring our victims is unfair to say the least. I mean, how can you compare few thousand Bosnian, Croatian and Albanians combined with more than 2+ million that Serbia sustained throughout entire 20th century, in a joint effort with the same Americans, British and so on who decided to thank us by bombing Belgrade for the third time in span of 80 years?

And all these three “nations” had a BIG role in making this 2+ million figure!

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May 5·edited May 5

You're saying this as if 80 years is a second. It only looks that way on the pages of a history textbook. I was a child at the time but from what I've read I do think the international intervention came too late and that all sides commited as many altrocities as their capabilities allowed them. Serbia just happened to have the highest capability.

That said, this is in the past. The altrocities stopped, to the point where people are bickering now over who should be mayor. Sure, I guess that's important but not to a "will I be killed or raped tomorrow by a random soldier" kind of level. Would it have happened without NATO intervention? We can argue but we'll never truly know - whether NATO's intervention was justified is a question for historians and moral philosophers. It's an important question but irrelevant to the current situation.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is being invaded now, altrocities are being committed right now. That is not in the past, and cannot be justified by the past. Justifying current atroticies by quoting past altrocities is a way of thinking that got us WW2. This way of thinking needs to die for good, and it's a practical concern for every living human, not for philosophers - as anything else gets us all killed en masse.

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First, NATO intervention in Serbia has nothing to do with the first or second world war. Just with the civil war in the 90s. IMO it was done with the intention to speed the end of the war, which happened exactly.

Second, NATO did not occupy any part of Serbia and did not interfere with Serbia's independence.

I do not agree with your statement that Serbs are primitive. Yes, Serbia is now behind, but just because of the bad historical and geographical circumstances. It's not genetic, like I told in another thread on another topic. However, IMO your place is in Europe and this will bring you progress. Not cheering Russia. Russia is no progress Maybe your parents can explain you that Yugoslavia had a much better situation than the other communist countries, because Tito was more independent from the Soviet Union than the rest, and closer to the West.

Also, a quick search on Internet will show you a list of Russian military campaigns, which proves that Russia has always been an imperial power, not different from other imperial powers, and with the main aim to dominate, not to help.

Last but not least, Ukraine is among the countries that do not recognize the independence of Kosovo.

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I didn’t say that NATO’s “intervention” had anything to do with WW1/2.

I mentioned these wars in context of them (NATO) expressing their grattitude towards our joint effort in the most difficult times for Europe and humanity by bombing a soverign European country, which didn’t threat anyone. But when Russia attacked a European country, than everyone were shocked…

When you say that “our place is in Europe”, I hoppe you mean in the EU, because Serbia IS in Europe geographicaly.

Don’t mention Tito, he was a scumbag fighting amongst Austro-Hungarians against both us Serbs and the Russians. He was a part of 42nd “Vrazja” Divison of the AU Balkan army which was responsible for mass murdering and rapping of Serbian population (2-3 thousand massacred children, women and elderly people) in Macva (Western Serbia), which was well documented by German-Swiss forensic scientist.

Russia WAS an imperialistic power, but not anymore.

Ukraine didn’t reckognize Kosovo but that will probably change very soon.

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You keep writing about millions of Serbs killed, so I don't understand anymore what you want. Obviously it was not NATO who killed them. Also you have admitted before that Serbs commites crimes in the civil war, but now you say Serbia didn't threat anyone. I think it's clear what happened, and it's totally different from what is happening in Ukraine. Even you can understand it, but you don't want to admit it.

I guess we all know Serbia is in Europe and it is all clear what I meant - but you seem so oriented towards the "non-imperial" Russia that I hope you will move there one day.

You even do not inform yourself enough in order to understand what Russia is doing, because you just like them, so you are definitely biased.

Regarding Tito - can you deny that the situation was better in Yugoslavia than in the rest of the communist countries? It is a fact (I am not a fan of Tito). You also seem to dislike some mass murderers when it is convenient to you but to cheer other mass murderers (eg Putin) because they seem to be on your side (btw, they are not, you are too small for them. They just want to be friends with the Americans). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia

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I never said NATO was responsible for millions of Serbian lives. I am saying that NATO decided to defend “nations” which have caused those millions of cassualties, against whom many NATO countries (US, Britain…) fought during WW1/2 when these cassulties were inflicted. And then, all of a sudden, those who killed millions of Serbs became victims…

When I said Serbia didn’t threat anyone, I meant NATO countries. Even if Serbia did “oppress” someone within Yugoslavia, it wasn’t NATO’s business, and it wasn’t according to NATO’s principles as well, since it was (allegedly) formed as a defensive alliance… nor according to international law… But you don’t give a shit!

Listen, I don’t wanna continue this conversation. Words like “logic” and “common sense” mean absolutely nothing to you… But I want you to know - sooner or later, Russia WILL win, and all of you here better prepare yourself for that… Your efforts are all in vain!

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May the 4th be with them!

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the report Tom interesting

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you, as always. Village, however, is called Krynky, not Krymky.

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks Tom. A much more positive end to the week and another comprehensive and entertaining report.

It’ll be interesting to see if the recent DEAD activities will be followed by SAM air sniping again. Fingers crossed!

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you Tom. Impressed with your consistency and (high) quality of the analysis of this war.

Grateful for the support of the defense. That's really is putting one's money where one's mouth is.

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

A short add:

1. “Unknown” SSO unit is the 3rd reg))

2. “Bridgehead” at Siversky Donets channel id not a classical one. This channel goes underground in 2-3 places, hardly mined of course. But ru had found a place less mined and “bridgeheaded” it

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May 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

DEAD. I like that. I REALLY like that. That is a proper mindset to have in a war like this. Given Russian issues with replacing high-tech gear, DEAD works a hell of a lot better. More holes, more gaps, maybe the RUAF moves up some A-50s to close them or try and cover them? And then we have more opportunity for all sorts of fun things.

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Tom: do you know what weapon struck the Buk inside Russia?

And, generally, what do you think about Cameron's statement implicitly endorsing the use of British weaponry inside Russia proper: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c163kp93l6po ?

Should we expect Storm Shadows coming at Russian airfields any time soon?

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