Ukraine War, 4 May 2024

Hello everybody!

A brief overview of most important developments of the last few days.

DEAD – Ukrainian Style

Because I’m into air warfare, one of most interesting developments of the last week or so was a sort of ‘anti-Buk-campaign’ run by the 3^rd SSO (yes, the unit that’s about to get its Shark UAV, thanks to you, dear readers; there’s going to be a separate update in this regards, later today), plus few other units, in cooperation with Ukrainian HIMARS-unit. Bonus: they didn’t just target Buk surface-to-air missiles, but Russian early warning radars, too. Therefore, this effort can be characterised as something like ‘DEAD-operation, Ukrainian Style’ – where DEAD stands for ‘destruction of enemy air defences’.

This campaign developed along the following lines (dates are those when videos were released, not when attacks in question took place):

-          24 April: 96L9E radar (S-300) peppered by M142 in western Luhansk (one crewmember confirmed KIA/200):

-          25 April: 3^rd SSO directed M142 on this Buk in western Luhansk:

-          25 April: Warmate attack drone hit a Russian 48Ya6-K1 Podlet radar (on the same day, Warmates were used to strike two Buk launchers, too):

-          30 April: 3^rd SSO directed M142 on this Buk in southern Zaporizhzhya:

-          2 May: unknown SSO unit directed UAV strike on this Buk inside Russia, vis-à-vis Sumy Oblast:

-          3 May: unknown SSO unit used PD-2 UAV (predecessor to the Shark UAV) to direct M142 strike on this 9K330 Tor launcher in southern Zaporizhzhya:

With other words: since it’s got slightly more ammunition, the ZSU is actively searching to destroy – not only ‘suppress’ – the Russian air defences along the frontlines. This is not for nothing: mind that this is not only important to enable PSU’s MiG-29s and Su-27s to continue striking selected Russian targets with HAMMER PGMs, but such strikes are important to make M142 HIMARS and MGM-140/164/168 ATACMS attacks on forward Russian headquarters and supply depots ‘easier’, too. Moreover, some of such attacks are obviously ‘opening the doors’ for UAV-strikes inside Russia.

…like two days ago, when the headquarters of the 331st VDV Regiment in the Bakhmut area was HIMARSed.

(Yes, that’s the same 331st VDV Regiment that was bushwacked by the 72nd Mech during the Battle of Moshchun, back in March 2022.)

Another good example: in the night from 1 to 2 May, the SBU finally made its long-range UAVs seriously useful (must be that certain General was busy with another interview to the media) - and hit the power supply of the railway from Moscow to Belgorod. This is the line over which the Russians are hauling the mass of supplies for frontlines in eastern Ukraine. Now, lets hope Ukrainian media might request additional interviews in the coming days… because one such strike is still too little: this line needs to be kept under constant pressure, and hit as often as possible.

Certainly enough, the Russians are trying to hit back in fashion. Here a video for which they claim to have hit an IRIS-T system of the PSU, south of Kharkiv, released back on 2 May. Whether something was really hit in that case: well…. gauge for yourself.

The Russians have also intensified their air- and rocket strikes on ZSU positions north of Kharkiv: in the last few days, they’re known to have destroyed or damaged at least four or five armoured fighting vehicles of the ZSU, and to have targeted ‘civilian infrastructure’ in the Kyivskyi and Kholodnohirsk districts.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Generally, something is seriously brewing in Kharkiv Oblast. I do not feel free to go into all the details I know, and even if: it’s hard to asses what exactly. My assessment remains that the VSRF hasn’t got the capability and capacity (in terms of troops, equipment, and supplies) to launch a major campaign there. But, not only Ukrainian media and the public, even the ZSU is meanwhile in the ‘taking the situation there seriously’-mode. Thus, lets add this to the ‘records’ and keep it in mind through the coming days and weeks.

Kupyansk-Svatove… the Russians are back to launching air strikes and assaults in the Kyselivka-Kotlarivka area (held by the 57^th Motor, ZSU) - where their 26^th Tank and the 272 Motor-Rifle Regiment run a two-prong attack, back on 1 May. This brought them about 50-100 metres forward at the price of another 20-30 armoured fighting vehicles and another destroyed assault group.

Strike by an RBK-500 cluster bomb deployed with help of UMPK-kit, on an Ukrainian position north-west of Kyslivka, on 1 or 2 May.

Bakhmut… while the VKS continues pounding Chasiv Yar with UMPK glide bombs into oblivion, fighting is focused on the area south-east of the town: the sector where the Russians have reached the Donbas-Siversky Donets Kanal and established a bridgehead west of the same.

Pokrovsk-Avdiivka… bitter, bitter fighting, but no major changes in this area for the last 2-3 days. The Russian 27^th Motor-Rifle Division was busy overcoming a big minefield between Ocheretyne and Novokalynove so it can start attacking the 115^th Mech in Arkhangelske not only from south-east, but from south-west, too. On the contrary, Russian assaults on Novooleksandrivka have all been repelled. Therefore, they began attacking positions of the 100th Motor in fields north-east of that village.

One of reasons is that the VSRF commanders nowadays are using their mobik-battalions to ‘100%’. See: they continue sending them into assaults until such units are completely wasted, not even leaving 20-30% of survivors any more, like at earlier times.

One of – interesting – patterns resulting from such practices: the number of Russian soldiers surrendering is continuously increasing. Few months ago, ZSU brigades deployed in this area were ‘happy’ if they’ve captured one Russian soldier a month. Nowadays, they’re capturing something like ‘three a week on average’.

Of course, the 27^th Motor-Rifle is also assaulting in western direction from Ocheretyne and Soloviove, and from Berdychi, but again: its efforts in these areas remained as effective as those of the 90^th Tank further south: there it turned out that the Russians still haven’t taken all of Netaliove. Indeed, even their push on Nevelske (positioned on a height 200, which is dominating the area south of Pervomaiske) is coming forward very slowly.

Important note for defeatists in the USA: the Russians have captured another destroyed M1 Abrams tank. The war is now irrecoverably lost, you know… My recommendation: the Ukraine should follow the US reaction to Japanese Kamikaze attacks on warships of the US Navy in summer 1945. As everybody knows, back then the USA withdrew all the way to the coast of California. So, Ukraine should now capitulate, too…

Ah yes: and the Earth is flat… 🙄

Krasnohorivka… the Russians are air striking, shelling, attacking, attacking, and attacking, foremost from ther south. The ZSU is holding out, though.

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SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA

Staromaiorske… The Russians have ‘breached Ukrainian frontline’, they say. See: their 5^th Tank- and the (‘re-filled’) 60 Motor-Rifle Brigades have advanced for about 200 metres, ‘all the way’ to the southern outskirts of Urozhaine. Of course, the place (defended by the 58^th Motor) is heavily bombed by UMPKs and attack drones, all the time.

Robotyne… the Russian 42nd Motor-Rifle Division is still busy trying to push the 141st Infantry out of northern and eastern side of the village.

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DNIPRO/SOUTHERN KHERSON

Krymky… This one in response to all the requests for info about a possible evacuation of the Ukrainian bridgehead: nobody I know knows anything about any such withdrawal. All that’s known is that the VKS continues pounding the southern side of the village and the northern bank of the Dnipro in this area (including the village of Tiahynka) with UMPK glide bombs. I happen to understand this as:

a) the Russians targeting Ukrainian positions in the south of the Krmky village (why do so if Ukrainians have withdrawn from there?), and

b) the Russians targeting points from which Ukrainians are sending reinforcements and supplies over the river.