Good morning everybody! I’m still busy with ‘life’, thus here another ‘brief’ one…. AIR/MISSILE WARFARE There’s so much going on in the air over Ukraine, that I’m actually in the process of preparing a separate (probably multi-part) analysis. In this place, sufficient to say that Don is preparing something like an ‘intro’ with a very good review of reports from the last few days - for tomorrow.
I cannot help but get the naive impression, that while not necessarily being the ‘main deciding factor’, all the types of air combat (UAVs, glide bombs and cruise missiles) are becoming the most ‘shaping’ factor as how this conflict is being fought and how strategies are being defined. And it would seem that especially unmanned warfare will be shaping the battlefield more and more in the coming months.
Thank you for your update Tom. It is really my base for separating the wheat from the chaff in this war.
Regarding: "sorry, no trace of clue why is this CAA such 'news' of the last few days." my two cents from my personal observations and media training.
Well the poor people in the news stations are doing there job by filling air time. As this filling of air time, at least the way I preceive it, is most of the time copying the ISW reports and adding some video material or pictures, they needed the latter to show up. Due to the fact that in the beginning of September there was enought combat going on including pictures from the Russian forces - that was the low hanging fruit to pick.
Now on the other hand there are no new Russian videos and pictures coming out. Either because they can't be made positively enough (seeing your troops like sitting ducks in a trench is not good propaganda) or the Russian self censorship is really kicking in or a mixtures of both. The positioning of the 25th CAA replacing the armies that were building up for the HUGE counter offensive has not been reported yet. So, you have air time, you have nothing else to report and that you can report with new videos or pictures and if they are not available - you can use some from the archives.
In combination with your reporting, it makes totally sense to me, as weird as it may sound and as much as it is against your ethic.
So again, thank you for your reporting in this time of desperate information need as the "4th column of power separation" in our so superior democracy is actually a hoax.
Basically Frederick the Great got lucky as his entire army was destroyed and after the death of Katherina the Great, the Russians dropped out of the coalition. This resulted in a peace treaty that saved his ass. So much about history not repeating itself, but it rhymes.
Hitler believed, that FDR's successor will signt a peace treaty, somehow overlooks all the mass murder as well as the carnage he ravaged over Europe, and that he will win against the Soviets in the end.
Desparation delievers sometimes really absurde situations.
There was reporting by the ISW, however not as interesting for the mainstream media as the videos from the Robotyne area. Simply because there was some action going on...
1. Do you know what the situation with replacement artillery barrels for the ZSU is? Do they have any issues with keeping artillery operational?
2. There have been reports about huge issues with missiles for the soviet AA systems. Do you know if there is any prospect of Ukraine getting sufficient missiles or nato replacement, to at least somewhat minimise the viscious VKS strikes?
3. For a while now, the ZSU have been reporting low VSRF troop losses. Are they currently causing sufficient attrition of the VSRF?
Many thanks for (all) the updates, short or long, they’re always a goldmine of genuine valuable information (against the biased, wrong and naive reports Western Media used to publish).
Eagerly waiting 3rd book of your Helion series on this War. I strongly recommended all of them.
Really 25th CAA is so “mobik” strong.? More than the usual 40-60% every unit seems to be?
Thank you for the update. The Ukrainian Deep State Map depicts official data that are somehow different from your information. As to the names of the Ukrainian villages you propose to rename "Chervonopopivka" means "the village of the red priest" (!!! really absurd) and "Ocheretuvate" means "thickets of reeds" (which may be true). As a rule the words in slavic languages are longer then English ones. Four and five syllables are not rare. To cheer you up you have to know that quite a lot of villages and other sites in Ukraine are named Pobieda ("Victory").
While I agree with the wish for easier to write names I will say that «village of the red priest» is a least a little different from the usual: big/small river, big/small mountain, forest of tree of type X (pine, elm, juniper, oak...) and similar, i personally liked the translation, but spilling the original? Rather not. I dont Even dere to think what I could end up Calling it then...
The priest could not be "red", rather he was considered good-looking or handsome because the archaic meaning of "krasny" in Ukrainian as well as in Russian is "beautiful".
Red-haired people are not common in Ukraine and are called "rudyi" and in Russian are called "rijyi" (probably derived from the French "rouge"). We have a lot of names Rudyi, Rudenko (son of a red-haired) or Rud. Maybe this discussion will amuse you a little.
Many thanks Tom, for yet another invaluable update. Keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated by us all.
If I can risk burdening you with a request for your opinion on something? I think we are both in agreement that the forthcoming deployment of F16 is a bit of a distraction, but nevertheless the wheels of deployment are grinding on slowly. I'm surprised however, that the Ukrainians have not made similar efforts on updating their AH fleet and are still employing old Mi24s on 'spray and pray' runs. I cant help but think that they would benefit from getting their hands on something more contemporary that might help with the counter offensive? The US had about 130 AH1W/Z in storage. Surely something like this might be of utility?
Hi, Tom. I have some tips for you. Chervonopopivka = Red priest village, Ocheretuvate = Reed village (means common reed). I hope I helped you with so weird names of villages.
First off, thanks for posting Don's weekly, it is a very interesting addition.
Q: This morning my Ukrainian colleagues told me that Russia has threatened to change the scale of the "intervention in Ukraine" to a full scale war by the 4th of October. They seemed quite alarmed by it. It sounds to me like Putin wants to send his mobiks in to replace losses in personnel. I am very interested to hear your point of view/if you heard anything of this kind.
Intersting. Given today is 1st of October we shall soon know whether it is done or not. Its eventually effects will take longer of course. But doing so must be really hard for them.
Erm... while this war is - certainly - looking entirely different from the safety of Austria: what could Putin do any more to convert it into a 'full scale war'?
What conventional weapons have the Russians not yet deployed in Ukraine?
They would then have to admit the SMO failed though. Maybe if they wanted to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov they could use that argument. Also, ironically SMO is a very correct description. It is a military operation and it is indeed truly special.
Thanks for the Sunday morning update. Appreciate the ongoing efforts!
I cannot help but get the naive impression, that while not necessarily being the ‘main deciding factor’, all the types of air combat (UAVs, glide bombs and cruise missiles) are becoming the most ‘shaping’ factor as how this conflict is being fought and how strategies are being defined. And it would seem that especially unmanned warfare will be shaping the battlefield more and more in the coming months.
Thank you for your update Tom. It is really my base for separating the wheat from the chaff in this war.
Regarding: "sorry, no trace of clue why is this CAA such 'news' of the last few days." my two cents from my personal observations and media training.
Well the poor people in the news stations are doing there job by filling air time. As this filling of air time, at least the way I preceive it, is most of the time copying the ISW reports and adding some video material or pictures, they needed the latter to show up. Due to the fact that in the beginning of September there was enought combat going on including pictures from the Russian forces - that was the low hanging fruit to pick.
Now on the other hand there are no new Russian videos and pictures coming out. Either because they can't be made positively enough (seeing your troops like sitting ducks in a trench is not good propaganda) or the Russian self censorship is really kicking in or a mixtures of both. The positioning of the 25th CAA replacing the armies that were building up for the HUGE counter offensive has not been reported yet. So, you have air time, you have nothing else to report and that you can report with new videos or pictures and if they are not available - you can use some from the archives.
In combination with your reporting, it makes totally sense to me, as weird as it may sound and as much as it is against your ethic.
So again, thank you for your reporting in this time of desperate information need as the "4th column of power separation" in our so superior democracy is actually a hoax.
Well, the most absurde thing in that respect was, that Goebbls and Hitler believed FDR's death is the same fortune that Frederick the Great had:
https://thewire.in/history/when-hitler-realised-the-end-of-the-war-was-upon-him
Basically Frederick the Great got lucky as his entire army was destroyed and after the death of Katherina the Great, the Russians dropped out of the coalition. This resulted in a peace treaty that saved his ass. So much about history not repeating itself, but it rhymes.
Hitler believed, that FDR's successor will signt a peace treaty, somehow overlooks all the mass murder as well as the carnage he ravaged over Europe, and that he will win against the Soviets in the end.
Desparation delievers sometimes really absurde situations.
Forgot to add something. This is not the ISWs fault, as they reported about the 25th "reserve" army" deplyoment alread in early September:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-6-2023
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-3-2023
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2023
There was reporting by the ISW, however not as interesting for the mainstream media as the videos from the Robotyne area. Simply because there was some action going on...
Thanks for the update!
Thanks Tom, much appreciated as always.
1. Do you know what the situation with replacement artillery barrels for the ZSU is? Do they have any issues with keeping artillery operational?
2. There have been reports about huge issues with missiles for the soviet AA systems. Do you know if there is any prospect of Ukraine getting sufficient missiles or nato replacement, to at least somewhat minimise the viscious VKS strikes?
3. For a while now, the ZSU have been reporting low VSRF troop losses. Are they currently causing sufficient attrition of the VSRF?
This is all going to be addressed in my 'air warfare update', in the coming days.
Fantastic, cannot wait!
Let's rename Chervonopopivka to Bilohorivka. And Ocheretuvate too. That would definitely make things simple.
Thank you so very, very much, Tom.
Many thanks for (all) the updates, short or long, they’re always a goldmine of genuine valuable information (against the biased, wrong and naive reports Western Media used to publish).
Eagerly waiting 3rd book of your Helion series on this War. I strongly recommended all of them.
Really 25th CAA is so “mobik” strong.? More than the usual 40-60% every unit seems to be?
Thank you for the update. The Ukrainian Deep State Map depicts official data that are somehow different from your information. As to the names of the Ukrainian villages you propose to rename "Chervonopopivka" means "the village of the red priest" (!!! really absurd) and "Ocheretuvate" means "thickets of reeds" (which may be true). As a rule the words in slavic languages are longer then English ones. Four and five syllables are not rare. To cheer you up you have to know that quite a lot of villages and other sites in Ukraine are named Pobieda ("Victory").
While I agree with the wish for easier to write names I will say that «village of the red priest» is a least a little different from the usual: big/small river, big/small mountain, forest of tree of type X (pine, elm, juniper, oak...) and similar, i personally liked the translation, but spilling the original? Rather not. I dont Even dere to think what I could end up Calling it then...
The priest could not be "red", rather he was considered good-looking or handsome because the archaic meaning of "krasny" in Ukrainian as well as in Russian is "beautiful".
Ok, village of the good looking priest, still a more unique name. Maybe he was red haired too? But Thanks fir the reminder of the language.
Red-haired people are not common in Ukraine and are called "rudyi" and in Russian are called "rijyi" (probably derived from the French "rouge"). We have a lot of names Rudyi, Rudenko (son of a red-haired) or Rud. Maybe this discussion will amuse you a little.
That would be from chervona popa (red butt)
Thank you! Your updates is almost one source I am reading recently about the war. Something you can trust
Many thanks Tom, for yet another invaluable update. Keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated by us all.
If I can risk burdening you with a request for your opinion on something? I think we are both in agreement that the forthcoming deployment of F16 is a bit of a distraction, but nevertheless the wheels of deployment are grinding on slowly. I'm surprised however, that the Ukrainians have not made similar efforts on updating their AH fleet and are still employing old Mi24s on 'spray and pray' runs. I cant help but think that they would benefit from getting their hands on something more contemporary that might help with the counter offensive? The US had about 130 AH1W/Z in storage. Surely something like this might be of utility?
Most of this will be addressed in my 'air warfare update', in the coming days.
Discovered interesting statistical portal with nice plots.
https://russian-casualties.in.ua/
Thank you for your endurant squeezing through all these alien Ukrainian toponims. :)
Hi, Tom. I have some tips for you. Chervonopopivka = Red priest village, Ocheretuvate = Reed village (means common reed). I hope I helped you with so weird names of villages.
Thanks for the update. Do you have any information about JDam strikes?
I know they're undertaken - if for no other reason then because the Russians are complaining about them. But, got no details, sorry.
First off, thanks for posting Don's weekly, it is a very interesting addition.
Q: This morning my Ukrainian colleagues told me that Russia has threatened to change the scale of the "intervention in Ukraine" to a full scale war by the 4th of October. They seemed quite alarmed by it. It sounds to me like Putin wants to send his mobiks in to replace losses in personnel. I am very interested to hear your point of view/if you heard anything of this kind.
Intersting. Given today is 1st of October we shall soon know whether it is done or not. Its eventually effects will take longer of course. But doing so must be really hard for them.
Erm... while this war is - certainly - looking entirely different from the safety of Austria: what could Putin do any more to convert it into a 'full scale war'?
What conventional weapons have the Russians not yet deployed in Ukraine?
Change the legal status to what it actually is...
They would then have to admit the SMO failed though. Maybe if they wanted to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov they could use that argument. Also, ironically SMO is a very correct description. It is a military operation and it is indeed truly special.
That's not in the Russian news. Looks like a fake.