Ukraine War, 30 Sept. - 1 Oct. 2023: Triangle of Death

Good morning everybody!

I’m still busy with ‘life’, thus here another ‘brief’ one….

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

There’s so much going on in the air over Ukraine, that I’m actually in the process of preparing a separate (probably multi-part) analysis. In this place, sufficient to say that Don is preparing something like an ‘intro’ with a very good review of reports from the last few days - for tomorrow.

Point is: relentless, and heavy Russian air strikes with MPK/UMPK glide-bombs (‘KABs’ in Ukrainian parlance) are taking place every day, along the full width of the frontline. Just as example: in the last 5-6 days, the Russians deployed enough of glide bombs to knock out four bridges on the Oskil River, forcing the ZSU to spend much of its bridging equipment to replace these. Now the Russians are targeting pontoon bridges.

….and that in addition to streams of 20-40 Shahed UAVs, released every night…

A Su-34 of the VKS, armed with a pair of MPK glide bombs (calibre 250kg), as seen in the process of take-off.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

• Kupyansk-Svatove area…all Russian attacks of the last week were successfully repelled.

• Kremina…since late August, the VSRF has pulled out many of mauled units of the 1st Guards Tanks Army (GTA), 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army (GCAA), 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) etc. - and replaced them by the newly established 25th CAA. This was actually widely reported. Thus, no trace of clue why is this repeated so often the last few days: it certainly doesn’t mean the Russians are now going to ‘drive on Lyman and then on Kharkiv’: they’ve replaced battered units by two divisions of ‘fresh’, though undertrained mobiks (one of divisions is the 67th Motor-Rifle, which is now deployed in the Chervonopopivka area…. which I find should be re-named, because alone memorising that name is too complex, not to talk about typing it correctly).

  With other words: sorry, no trace of clue why is this CAA such 'news' of the last few days.

• Bakhmut…the fighting north-east and south of the ruined town is ‘on’ again. The Russians brought in the 88th Motor Rifle Brigade and then started counter-attacking in the area east of Andriivka, and north and north-east of Kurdyumivka, where…. well, sufficient to say that Ukrainians are ‘well to the east’ of what most of war-mappers in the social media are showing (and ‘probing’ further east, plus heavily shelling whatever Russians they can find). Kurdyumivka is bitterly embattled, with the Russians, once again, pushed back into its eastern and southern parts.

UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

Up front, there are actually lots of news, but I’m not going to release any more specific details than the following:

• Vuhledar… there should be some ‘good developments’ from the Pavlivka area, but I’ve got no details.

• Novomaiorske…the Russians are claiming to have pushed Ukrainians completely out of village, but that’s exactly the same they’re claiming at least since 23 September. AFAIK, northern half remains under ZSU control.

• Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka area…no major developments, except for strong Russian counterattacks from Pryyutne in northern direction, and south-west of Staromaiorske. So far, no change in positions.

• Novoprokopivka…ZSU meanwhile has three ‘fresh’ brigades pressing in southern direction in this area: 15th Kara-Dag (National Guard), 71st Jäger and 116th Mech. Of course, 46th Airborne, 47th Mech, and 82nd Airborne are ‘still around’, too. Plus 27th Rocket Artillery, 44th Artillery, and 148th Artillery - and these are shelling all Russian positions between Novoprokopivka, Verbove and Ocheretuvate (another place where I would recommend a re-naming with the purpose of simplification) with such ferocity that the area seems to be named something like ‘Triangle of Death’ by the Russians. Apparently because the next VDV regiment - the 104th (from the 76th VDV Division) - was mauled and forced to withdraw from Novoprokopivka area.
  Essentially, the HQ 58th CAA (that is: what is left of the same after all the recent hits on its positions) is not in control of the battle any more: what is left of units like the 70th MRR, 71st MRR, 201st MRR, 1430th MRR (most are down to 100-150 troops, and had to be refilled by different BARS-regiments), were told to ‘hold out where they are’, and that’s it: they’re pinned down in their field fortifications. VDV units are still trying to attack into flanks of Ukrainian advance (lately, especially from the direction of Kopani). However, whatever comes out into the open is dead: hit by ZSU artillery. Whatever reinforcements and supplies the Russians try to move in - for example along the road via Solodka Balka - is hit, too. The Russian 292nd and 1140th Artillery Regiments were both halved by losses in a matter of 2-3 days of joining the battle. Still, the Russian artillery fire (from tanks, when losses in artillery pieces are too heavy), and UAVs are hitting back: together with mines, and repeated counterattacks by the VDV, that’s what’s holding the Russian frontline together.

A T-72 of the ZSU: should be ‘somewhere in southern Zaporizhzhya’, probably around 28 September.

That’s about it for today. Thanks for your attention and understanding, and please remain patient (or if you can’t: go kicking your politicians to send more, and then yet more to Ukraine; the list of what shall they send it well-known).