The impression this makes on me is that the Ukrainians are overall still doing incredibly well while being ‘outnumbered and outgunned’. However, some are saying that this is the climactic battle - if Pokrovsk is lost Ukraine is lost. Well, I’m dramatising the language a bit but it sometimes feels like that. On the Financial Times comment section I have had to fight my way through the Russian 811th Gloating Brigade. The Economist is talking about the front line crumbling, O mi God. The Daily Kos blog, meanwhile, is suggesting that the loss of Prokovsk might not be too disastrous any more than Bakhmut was
Zero chance. Ukraine's biggest and only real threat is withdrawal of support from the West. They spend much of their energy and blood trying to prevent that from happening
Supply routes wouldn't be as efficient or moved along the best roads, and that's not good, but supplies will still make it to the front. Ukraine will still be standing. Time will still be ticking on the Russian economy and production. Ukraine's strategic bombing campaign by drones and missiles will continue to increase in intensity. And at the current rate of the Russian advance, and that for the last six months, it'll take 3 months to reach the city limits of Pkrovsk, let alone fight through the town.
It's a lots of company- and battalion commanders, and a few brigade COs that are doing great. Logistics is functioning quite well, meanwhile. But the GenStab-U and territorial commands... my impression is that they often simply have no clear idea what exactly is going on.
It might well be the Yermak's selection of top commanders. He and Zelensky are running the country as if it is "Quartal 95" (their previous occupation in show business) in tandem. So people outside the "inner circle" very often struggle to understand who actually makes the decision. Confusing (your word of the day :) or putting it in a less diplomatic way - incompetent.
We could only hope that he was the single source of problems in the air force and not simply the head of the orginizational culture he helped create and maintain. If, in fact, the problem is bigger than him, then we can hope that his replacement will be able reform that culture.
Given the persistent leadership issues in the army, with brigade officers ranging from very good to very bad, it would be quite extraordinary if Oleshuk's replacement could overcome organizational inertia, but it's well worth the effort.
Looks like Mykola got a seat in a Patriot fire control unit instead of the Igla he had at the begining of the war.
Tom, what do you know about Ukr pilot of Romanian ethnicity Stefan Ciobanu? He was killed on 28 feb 2022 in his Su-27. Official story is he died in combat. Rumor I got to hear is he was downed by Ukr MANPADS. He survived 5 encounters with the VKS, but Mykola got him...
It didn't have to be a man-in-the-loop Mykola, what if the Mykola in charge left the AD system in automatic mode without proper oversight? Weren't US Patriots working in automatic mode notorious for shooting down coalition planes in Iraq in 2003, until some nervous US Navy pilots started lobbing HARMS on American AD positions when being painted by own radars?
True, but when things are so 'close to the vest' that units end up getting mauled that might be counter productive as with the example in the update above of the 151st.
Although 'selling' a deception might well include doing just that.
It's so frustrating when you have to read foreign commentators to find out the truth about the state of affairs in your own country. To Don - my sincere thanks again for the quality and uncompromising review. I will keep my wishes for the leaders of the General Staff and others involved in this shameful management of the troops to myself, but there are very few pleasant words.
This sometimes happens in oligarchic plutocracies, when you keep loyal idiots near you and are afraid to give way to disloyal, unsystematic, but competent people. The Ukrainian oligarchic system is very afraid of those who are not loyal to them. They will never give even a piece of power to non-systemic people, they do everything possible to immediately destroy and discredit such people. In fact, the Ukrainian system is no different from Putin's and those in other post-Soviet republics. The same stupid marauding incompetent elite who only know how to lie and steal, who never held anything heavier than their little member in their hands. Well, Ukrainian elites and their children have the same views on life as Russian businessmen and oligarchs.
Are you kidding me? Read the biography of Klitschko and preferably his criticism and scandals with him. In general, he started with connections to crime and that’s how he got into boxing. Then these criminal connections through mutual friends brought him to the team of Sergei Levochkin and Dmitry Firtash. And since they both have friendly relations, they will subsequently have friendly relations with Poroshenko.
I work in a government health bureaucracy in Australia and it is all about who you know and eho tou are friends with.
If I told you how my employer operates you would think we ard located in Moscow not Australia (including protecting hild molester nurses snd head doctor falsifying death certificates - thank the heaven for whistleblowers)
My friends in Justice and Education departments say the same thing.
Accountability, transparency and true meritocracy are dying everywhere.
How important of a role is Pokrovsk playing in the Ukrainians' defense line? Worst case scenario, if the Russians could take Pokrovsk within the next few weeks/months, how bad would it be? Will it be worse than Bakhmut/Avdiivka?
So far, not much. Although the ZSU was late into constructing defence lines between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, it did so. But, as said: some positions were not even occupied before they were abandoned...
UA authorities management is heavily based on PR shows. F-16 was constantly promoted as a decisive wunderwaffe, the whole country was holding its breath to see the plane in action and...the result was quite disapponting. To make situation even more grotesque and painful, F-16 was downed by Patriot. Military wise, one plane is nothing, but PR wise it was a disaster.
Its just been a month since the F16s arrived. Experts such as Justin Bronk had already pointed out Ukrainian SAMs could be a threat to F16s if they cant do deconfliction very well. Which is also a challenge in the West. You're exaggerating here about the F16s and should be patient
Tupoilev's job is to jump on every occasion to praise the superior Russians and belittle the inferior Ukrainians. This requires a lot of patience already.
If I were you, it would be better to keep quiet, considering that your air defense forces are shooting down A-50s. And if another SU-34 is shot down, it was us, not the Ukrainians, who shot it down.
According to this article: "Indeed, this Monday, August 26, 2024, when Oleksiy Sergyievich took off on alert with his F-16AM Fighting Falcon, his IFF beacon, for Identification Friend or Foe, was inactive. A technique that is systematically found within the Russian forces and still quite frequently among Ukrainian pilots. However, this was fatal to him.... Mykola Oleshchuk has been dismissed. He was the chief of staff of the PSZ SU. According to the Ukrainian authorities, he bears a strong responsibility for the bad habits of fighter pilots" https://www.avionlegendaires.net/2024/08/actu/demelons-le-vrai-du-faux-autour-de-la-perte-dun-f-16mlu-en-ukraine/
I am a bit (actually more than a bit) confused over your latest post and all the information about bad military decision-making. Is there perhaps some treason mixed into the poor judgements that you seemed to have discovered? [or perhaps I have a little touch of paranoia today?]
How truly serious to Ukraine is the potential loss of Pokrovsk? Given what is happening in the Donbas now, have the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk and the other minor incursion into the Belgorod environs become a distraction?
There's no treason. Only bad political interference ( no step back, go to Kursk now) and overwork. Ukrainian General Staff has to coordinate an ever increasing number of brigades and battles. At some point there's no more attention.
Something is definitely off on the Pokrovsk front, that's for sure. I've got my theory - this is setting up for a counteroffensive on the northern flank towards Ocheretyne and possibly Avdiivka - but the alternative of the ZSU command being in disarray looks much more plausible right now.
Granted, that's exactly the impression you try to give before unleashing the counterblow, but something has to have slipped south of Novozhelanne. Could be a mix - a plan is in place but some elements aren't working out.
It's easy to forget that Ukraine is a country of ~40 million people with an economy the size of the US state I live in. There is a limit to the number of effective leaders you can squeeze out of a population. Institutional capacity across the board won't be what you expect if you're from an EU or Anglosphere country.
It's fucking frustrating that the people who always pay the price are priceless leaders like Juice and Moonfish. Ultimately, Ukraine's partners bear the biggest share of the blame. They could have deployed a training squadron to Uzhgorod or someplace in the far west a full two years ago, run by contractors not to fight, but just help Ukraine build out all the professional architecture that keeps pilots alive in NATO countries.
Like, fuck, people, what do we have to do, crowdsource a functioning military-industrial complex? Will someone pay me to architect that?
A brief justification of Western allies from Mordor.) I totally disagree with the idea that the West is doing not enough. In fact, the help is gigantic. It's always a matter of comparison. Was Soviet help to Vietnam sufficient? Big, important but it was not help to the utmost (no SA-3 or missile boats). Was US help to Afgani rebels sufficient? Nope, they got Stingers but not TOWs, for example. It is always not enough and where is the bound of saturation? US Patriots and Himars, Anglo-French Storm Shadows effectively saved Ukraine from the defeat. The list of already supplied equipment is countless, to say nothing about non-military supplies. The principal problem of Ukraine is that it's ruled by PR guys and actors. They ask for show, not efficiency. Is it West to blame for the fouled last summer offensive or similar idiotic Kursk onslaught? Of course, not. And even now, cocainist Zelensky fired Head of Airforce not for military failures but for the PRBS disaster.
How many years did the war in Afghanistan and Vietnam last. If the arms supply is like this, this war will last decades too, even though it has already lasted over 10 years. And what makes you think that Zelensky is a drug addict, have you taken tests from him?)
Use this disastrous war and its inevitable outcome for Russia to re-evaluate how you see yourself. One's identity should not be too much one's state or even homeland.
Gigantic is still nothing compared to what’s possible is my point.
If I’m running the US, Putin’s navy has already been sunk worldwide. Merchant ships moving from North Korean ports to Vladivostok are being sunk. The only reason your fearless leader can get away with any of this is that my country’s leaders have chosen to accept nuclear bluffs because these are politically convenient.
Just like the USA would be better off broken into autonomous constitutional zones, so would the RF. Leaders on either side are terrified of the fact that their regions don’t need the central government any more and are held back.
Me, I’m unwilling to let thousands of people on both sides die in the trenches while idiot leaders slowly drag themselves to where we’re heading anyway: global collapse. Better to force everyone to lay out their cards now and end this fast.
Ukraine got a lot (100K+) of IT specialists who know English and many of them are experienced in management and problem-solving. However, the army runs its own way, and needs them in assault brigades.
Ty for the unfiltered update. To the Ukrainian readers here… we don’t doubt the fighting ability of the Ukrainian troopers, we do question some of the leadership since their bad decisions cost brave soldiers lives and limbs. Of all the changes we want that has to come from within ….its the quality of facing the truth and learning from it is the most crucial that we want for the Ukrainians. Learning from mistakes goes a long way in fixing the deficiencies they are facing. Easier said than done… time will tell.
The case of the parachute is not an assadist plane shot down, it is an Iranian drone that crashed
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1828856672829464845?t=-4vqT8iNES2wnKjWgL4ZKA&s=19
The impression this makes on me is that the Ukrainians are overall still doing incredibly well while being ‘outnumbered and outgunned’. However, some are saying that this is the climactic battle - if Pokrovsk is lost Ukraine is lost. Well, I’m dramatising the language a bit but it sometimes feels like that. On the Financial Times comment section I have had to fight my way through the Russian 811th Gloating Brigade. The Economist is talking about the front line crumbling, O mi God. The Daily Kos blog, meanwhile, is suggesting that the loss of Prokovsk might not be too disastrous any more than Bakhmut was
Zero chance. Ukraine's biggest and only real threat is withdrawal of support from the West. They spend much of their energy and blood trying to prevent that from happening
That last part on the fall of Pokrovsk.
Supply routes wouldn't be as efficient or moved along the best roads, and that's not good, but supplies will still make it to the front. Ukraine will still be standing. Time will still be ticking on the Russian economy and production. Ukraine's strategic bombing campaign by drones and missiles will continue to increase in intensity. And at the current rate of the Russian advance, and that for the last six months, it'll take 3 months to reach the city limits of Pkrovsk, let alone fight through the town.
Some commentators say Russia will culminate on the edges of Pokrovsk
I can see how that might be possible but I don't have enough information to make the same statement.
It's a lots of company- and battalion commanders, and a few brigade COs that are doing great. Logistics is functioning quite well, meanwhile. But the GenStab-U and territorial commands... my impression is that they often simply have no clear idea what exactly is going on.
Is it a case of too many senior officers trained in a Soviet model but promoted on basis of nepotism and personal allegiances?
Partially - yes. Partially it's the Zelensky's selection of top commanders, too.
It might well be the Yermak's selection of top commanders. He and Zelensky are running the country as if it is "Quartal 95" (their previous occupation in show business) in tandem. So people outside the "inner circle" very often struggle to understand who actually makes the decision. Confusing (your word of the day :) or putting it in a less diplomatic way - incompetent.
Yes, but Yermak is still responsible to Zelensky, and Zelensky has the final say.
So, Yermak can, actually, recommend, but it's Zelensky who's making decisions...
Thank for report. Oleshuk was fired today by Zelenskyi
The guilty was found and punished, now everything can continue as it was before.
We could only hope that he was the single source of problems in the air force and not simply the head of the orginizational culture he helped create and maintain. If, in fact, the problem is bigger than him, then we can hope that his replacement will be able reform that culture.
Given the persistent leadership issues in the army, with brigade officers ranging from very good to very bad, it would be quite extraordinary if Oleshuk's replacement could overcome organizational inertia, but it's well worth the effort.
Yup, have added a corresponding 'update'.
....is two years too late... but, sigh... better late than never.
Looks like Mykola got a seat in a Patriot fire control unit instead of the Igla he had at the begining of the war.
Tom, what do you know about Ukr pilot of Romanian ethnicity Stefan Ciobanu? He was killed on 28 feb 2022 in his Su-27. Official story is he died in combat. Rumor I got to hear is he was downed by Ukr MANPADS. He survived 5 encounters with the VKS, but Mykola got him...
AFAIK, he was shot down by a (Ukrainian) MiG-29.
It didn't have to be a man-in-the-loop Mykola, what if the Mykola in charge left the AD system in automatic mode without proper oversight? Weren't US Patriots working in automatic mode notorious for shooting down coalition planes in Iraq in 2003, until some nervous US Navy pilots started lobbing HARMS on American AD positions when being painted by own radars?
They are pulling our 72nd out. It's no secret now, Bezugla has spilled the beans.
We will get no rest though in the new place.
As usual.
Obviously the GenStab-U is applying 'maskirovka' in the Donbass on a large scale to confuse the Russians.
Unfortunately they are keeping their own units in the dark as well...
Maskirovka always.involves keeping own troops in the dark. Less people know, the better.
Indeed from I understand even Ukrainian troops weren't told they epyld be attacking Kutsk until a couple of days before.
True, but when things are so 'close to the vest' that units end up getting mauled that might be counter productive as with the example in the update above of the 151st.
Although 'selling' a deception might well include doing just that.
Rather a waste if that is not the plan though...
It's so frustrating when you have to read foreign commentators to find out the truth about the state of affairs in your own country. To Don - my sincere thanks again for the quality and uncompromising review. I will keep my wishes for the leaders of the General Staff and others involved in this shameful management of the troops to myself, but there are very few pleasant words.
It's a team effort. From one human to another, I wish only for the best outcomes in favor of decent people everywhere.
This sometimes happens in oligarchic plutocracies, when you keep loyal idiots near you and are afraid to give way to disloyal, unsystematic, but competent people. The Ukrainian oligarchic system is very afraid of those who are not loyal to them. They will never give even a piece of power to non-systemic people, they do everything possible to immediately destroy and discredit such people. In fact, the Ukrainian system is no different from Putin's and those in other post-Soviet republics. The same stupid marauding incompetent elite who only know how to lie and steal, who never held anything heavier than their little member in their hands. Well, Ukrainian elites and their children have the same views on life as Russian businessmen and oligarchs.
>> who never held anything heavier than their little member in their hands
What do you think of Klitschko?
Are you kidding me? Read the biography of Klitschko and preferably his criticism and scandals with him. In general, he started with connections to crime and that’s how he got into boxing. Then these criminal connections through mutual friends brought him to the team of Sergei Levochkin and Dmitry Firtash. And since they both have friendly relations, they will subsequently have friendly relations with Poroshenko.
I believe he used to train with heavy weights.
Apparently you know better.
It is the same everywhere.
I work in a government health bureaucracy in Australia and it is all about who you know and eho tou are friends with.
If I told you how my employer operates you would think we ard located in Moscow not Australia (including protecting hild molester nurses snd head doctor falsifying death certificates - thank the heaven for whistleblowers)
My friends in Justice and Education departments say the same thing.
Accountability, transparency and true meritocracy are dying everywhere.
Thanks for the update, depressing as it is. Must be worse to write it. But how is your toe today? Now itching? Or is the whole foot burning?
Thanks Tom: a tough read and a hell of a lot of hard work for you but a clear overview. And that’s more important than just one sided news.
Very confusing indeed, these actions (and inactions) by Ukrainian command.
How important of a role is Pokrovsk playing in the Ukrainians' defense line? Worst case scenario, if the Russians could take Pokrovsk within the next few weeks/months, how bad would it be? Will it be worse than Bakhmut/Avdiivka?
So far, not much. Although the ZSU was late into constructing defence lines between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, it did so. But, as said: some positions were not even occupied before they were abandoned...
It was announced today that Oleshchuk has been relieved of duty over the loss of F-16.
But was it the straw that broke the camel's back?
I’m not sure we’ll ever know for sure. At this point I’ll take the result and hopefully PSU will only get better from this experience.
UA authorities management is heavily based on PR shows. F-16 was constantly promoted as a decisive wunderwaffe, the whole country was holding its breath to see the plane in action and...the result was quite disapponting. To make situation even more grotesque and painful, F-16 was downed by Patriot. Military wise, one plane is nothing, but PR wise it was a disaster.
Its just been a month since the F16s arrived. Experts such as Justin Bronk had already pointed out Ukrainian SAMs could be a threat to F16s if they cant do deconfliction very well. Which is also a challenge in the West. You're exaggerating here about the F16s and should be patient
Tupoilev's job is to jump on every occasion to praise the superior Russians and belittle the inferior Ukrainians. This requires a lot of patience already.
If I were you, it would be better to keep quiet, considering that your air defense forces are shooting down A-50s. And if another SU-34 is shot down, it was us, not the Ukrainians, who shot it down.
According to this article: "Indeed, this Monday, August 26, 2024, when Oleksiy Sergyievich took off on alert with his F-16AM Fighting Falcon, his IFF beacon, for Identification Friend or Foe, was inactive. A technique that is systematically found within the Russian forces and still quite frequently among Ukrainian pilots. However, this was fatal to him.... Mykola Oleshchuk has been dismissed. He was the chief of staff of the PSZ SU. According to the Ukrainian authorities, he bears a strong responsibility for the bad habits of fighter pilots" https://www.avionlegendaires.net/2024/08/actu/demelons-le-vrai-du-faux-autour-de-la-perte-dun-f-16mlu-en-ukraine/
I am a bit (actually more than a bit) confused over your latest post and all the information about bad military decision-making. Is there perhaps some treason mixed into the poor judgements that you seemed to have discovered? [or perhaps I have a little touch of paranoia today?]
How truly serious to Ukraine is the potential loss of Pokrovsk? Given what is happening in the Donbas now, have the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk and the other minor incursion into the Belgorod environs become a distraction?
There's no treason. Only bad political interference ( no step back, go to Kursk now) and overwork. Ukrainian General Staff has to coordinate an ever increasing number of brigades and battles. At some point there's no more attention.
Thanks Tom interesting report some good lots so so
Something is definitely off on the Pokrovsk front, that's for sure. I've got my theory - this is setting up for a counteroffensive on the northern flank towards Ocheretyne and possibly Avdiivka - but the alternative of the ZSU command being in disarray looks much more plausible right now.
Granted, that's exactly the impression you try to give before unleashing the counterblow, but something has to have slipped south of Novozhelanne. Could be a mix - a plan is in place but some elements aren't working out.
It's easy to forget that Ukraine is a country of ~40 million people with an economy the size of the US state I live in. There is a limit to the number of effective leaders you can squeeze out of a population. Institutional capacity across the board won't be what you expect if you're from an EU or Anglosphere country.
It's fucking frustrating that the people who always pay the price are priceless leaders like Juice and Moonfish. Ultimately, Ukraine's partners bear the biggest share of the blame. They could have deployed a training squadron to Uzhgorod or someplace in the far west a full two years ago, run by contractors not to fight, but just help Ukraine build out all the professional architecture that keeps pilots alive in NATO countries.
Like, fuck, people, what do we have to do, crowdsource a functioning military-industrial complex? Will someone pay me to architect that?
A brief justification of Western allies from Mordor.) I totally disagree with the idea that the West is doing not enough. In fact, the help is gigantic. It's always a matter of comparison. Was Soviet help to Vietnam sufficient? Big, important but it was not help to the utmost (no SA-3 or missile boats). Was US help to Afgani rebels sufficient? Nope, they got Stingers but not TOWs, for example. It is always not enough and where is the bound of saturation? US Patriots and Himars, Anglo-French Storm Shadows effectively saved Ukraine from the defeat. The list of already supplied equipment is countless, to say nothing about non-military supplies. The principal problem of Ukraine is that it's ruled by PR guys and actors. They ask for show, not efficiency. Is it West to blame for the fouled last summer offensive or similar idiotic Kursk onslaught? Of course, not. And even now, cocainist Zelensky fired Head of Airforce not for military failures but for the PRBS disaster.
How many years did the war in Afghanistan and Vietnam last. If the arms supply is like this, this war will last decades too, even though it has already lasted over 10 years. And what makes you think that Zelensky is a drug addict, have you taken tests from him?)
Use this disastrous war and its inevitable outcome for Russia to re-evaluate how you see yourself. One's identity should not be too much one's state or even homeland.
Gigantic is still nothing compared to what’s possible is my point.
If I’m running the US, Putin’s navy has already been sunk worldwide. Merchant ships moving from North Korean ports to Vladivostok are being sunk. The only reason your fearless leader can get away with any of this is that my country’s leaders have chosen to accept nuclear bluffs because these are politically convenient.
Just like the USA would be better off broken into autonomous constitutional zones, so would the RF. Leaders on either side are terrified of the fact that their regions don’t need the central government any more and are held back.
Me, I’m unwilling to let thousands of people on both sides die in the trenches while idiot leaders slowly drag themselves to where we’re heading anyway: global collapse. Better to force everyone to lay out their cards now and end this fast.
Ukraine got a lot (100K+) of IT specialists who know English and many of them are experienced in management and problem-solving. However, the army runs its own way, and needs them in assault brigades.
Ty for the unfiltered update. To the Ukrainian readers here… we don’t doubt the fighting ability of the Ukrainian troopers, we do question some of the leadership since their bad decisions cost brave soldiers lives and limbs. Of all the changes we want that has to come from within ….its the quality of facing the truth and learning from it is the most crucial that we want for the Ukrainians. Learning from mistakes goes a long way in fixing the deficiencies they are facing. Easier said than done… time will tell.