ZSU should have some good approximate number of incoming and not destroyed missiles / drones by counting hits at the ground, shouldn't they? Of course if drone misses and falls to a river or lake somewhere it's not so important like those which score hits.
Judging from social media may be misleading because how civilians can distinguish if the missile / drone has been hit in the air and the damage has been caused by debris vs. undamaged missile hit? And even debris from AA missiles can cause troubles on the ground which is not easy to distinguish from enemy missile hit for unskilled persons.
Yes, one must hope the PSU has something like 'internal statistics' - which, gauging by what I wrote above, must be significantly different than what they publish.
However, from studying certain other of PSU's operations (especially early during the all-out invasion), I have my doubts that it's really 'maintaining such, double statistics'...
Oh, after 2,5 years of permanent air strikes even my 70yo mother-in-law is more experienced in such issues as an average NATO lieutenant.
More less trustable info was published in Syrsky report 2-3 weeks ago: interception ratio is like 50-55%. In western regions might be a bit worser (less tide AD), in central/eastern a bit better (more tide AD, more intense objects traffic), in Kyiv is like 90+%.
Real probs are X22 (hope stocks are physically exhausted), Kindzhals, Onyxes and Iskanders (M, 9M723 missile): interception ratio is like 10-15% max.
You are right, now even a child can tell the difference between the sound of a missile being shot down and a missile hitting its target. I live in a city where missile strikes are not uncommon. . So the sound of a ballistic missile hitting the ground can be heard all over the city, and our city is very long. When a missile is shot down in the air, the sound is more deafening and can be heard not so far away.
Tom, JFYI: many people confuse the incoming strike with the blast sound following the explosion of an intercepted missile. Specifically in the Western regions, where missile strikes are bot so many. Also, interception explosions are super-loud, which make people think that it's a heavy strike.
IMO that's the proper way - cheap solution for cheap UAVs. The West should jump into such research and help ZSU to make some FPVs or cheap guided missiles to kill Shahed drones. That would make the mobile teams useless.
Actually, situation isn't fully understandable because main Chinese delivery company (Meest China,) also claim that it refers only to standard delivery, not commercial ones
Chinese are born traders, so i cannot imagine situation they will refuse from profits for (actually, what is the purpose?) unknown goals. They will continue to sell spares/kits etc for both sides of war conflict via 3rd countries: for Ru - North Korea, Vietnam etc; for UA - Cambodia, Vietnam, HongKong, UAE etc
Back in 2022, Ukraine was heavily reliant on China for drones and drone parts. China was also selling to Russia and would prioritize Russian sales over Ukrainian sales. Back in October, China enacted some restrictions that impacted both Ukraine and Russia.
All the Ukrainian drone producers worked to reduce their dependency on China. They're ahead of their goal to produce a million drones this year and should be ok.
It is almost impossible to produce cheap cams and VTX controllers. Props, antennas, motors and flight controllers - not very easy, but possible. There are some UA brands producing mix of domestic techs and chinese spares (not bad quality, i would say)
Mobile teams were perfect for low flying Shakheds. Now as Shakheds are flying higher and more rapidly, MT are not of a great use, so will be reorganized/replaced soon
About UAV intercepting UAV: UA will be adopting to this issue much faster and with cheaper sollutions as West. It is an issue of survival, so simple. Ru is already criyng about huge recon UAVs losses (previously life time of recon UAV was counted in months, now - in days), but it is just the beginning: effective solution is still somewhere on engineer tables
Lack of debriefing; that's a weakness that could so easily be fixed 🤷🏼♂️. Let's hope they get their act together and get some proper 'lessons learnt' into the mix.
Hi Tom. Thanks a lot for the update, always appreciated.
Have been reading every post you have done regarding the war in Ukraine. A sincere thank you!
I have read that Lt. Col Moonshine was killed on the groud at an airbase (including F16) after the base was geolocated due to photos published the day before.....
This sounds much more like a russian misstake than Ukranian....
I really do hope its not true, but surely Ukraine would comment on it if it wasnt.
Please continue as you have done previously, keep it up!
Your comment on it would be very much appreciated.
Thanks alot Tom for the update. I have been reading literally every post you have made regarding the war in Ukraine. A sincere thank you!
I guess you will comment in future posts, but is it true that "Lt col. Moonshine" lost his life including his F-16 on the 26 Aug in a airbase attack because Ukr media posted pictures that were used by the Russians to geolocate the F-16s airbase and attacked it?
I really hope its not true.
If it is, that sounds like a small disaster and sounds rather like a russian thing than Ukrainian.
I think that the calculation of the results "Russian media + Ukrainian social networks" is incorrect. There is nothing to say about the objectivity of the Russian media. And Ukrainian social networks will define as "hits" both targeted objects, and cruise missiles damaged by air defense fire and exploding within populated areas, or anti-aircraft missiles that detonated on the ground and missed their target, and at the same time missiles that exploded in the air at low altitude, if they also caused damage to buildings.
One article on the mobile machine guns I saw was with female volunteers firing WWII era soviet water cooled guns. So such efforts help morale, don't suck up to much resources and likley score some successes. If they cover a "Box" along known drone routes they can help a fair bit. Including spotting and identification, along with shooting down a portion of them.
This time i disagree with you… she is really crazy. As crazy as Farion was (shot in Lviv a month ago). Widely quoted by ru PRBS, sponsored by … (no idea by whom) - she broadcasts darkests rumors and provokes scandals. Very negative person
And i agree with your PoV in full: i am not going to question reasons of the F16 fallen and hope for investigation of this crash. I am going to insist on craziness of Bezuhla: she is really a person to hate, created by UA bureaucracy as “lightning rod”. So people discuss another scandal with Bezuhla and not the fact, for example, Pokrovsk administration spent back in june 2024 650k USD for “flowers and seedlings” or another 490k for roads reconstruction in the same town instead of fortifications and supply
Great update, I was listening to Eric Schmidt recently since he's been forced to register as an arms dealer due to his activities helping Ukraine. They have done studies a long with several Information Science experts and reached a conclusion at the moment that the side attacking more gets more of the benefits. I think this partly explains why Russia is getting better at utilizing their cruise missiles. I think with Ukraine developing its long range strike capabilities that will greatly improve Ukraine's position as well. They just need to continue figuring out ways of attacking even on Russian soil regardless of what Sullivan thinks.
A dead Russian brings more to his family than a living Russian — Le Monde
In fact, if a person decides to go to war and dies between the ages of 30 and 35, that is, at the age when he is most active and at his best, his death will be more "beneficial" from an economic point of view. Signing a contract with the army guarantees that he will earn ten times the minimum wage and, above all, will allow his loved ones, if he is killed in action, to receive a death bonus of up to 11 million rubles (about $121,340), depending on the region.
The "economy of death" is driving Russia's growth: the huge sums spent on the military industry, salaries for contractors and death bonuses for families are creating a financial "bubble" that keeps the war going, experts say.
ZSU should have some good approximate number of incoming and not destroyed missiles / drones by counting hits at the ground, shouldn't they? Of course if drone misses and falls to a river or lake somewhere it's not so important like those which score hits.
Judging from social media may be misleading because how civilians can distinguish if the missile / drone has been hit in the air and the damage has been caused by debris vs. undamaged missile hit? And even debris from AA missiles can cause troubles on the ground which is not easy to distinguish from enemy missile hit for unskilled persons.
Yes, one must hope the PSU has something like 'internal statistics' - which, gauging by what I wrote above, must be significantly different than what they publish.
However, from studying certain other of PSU's operations (especially early during the all-out invasion), I have my doubts that it's really 'maintaining such, double statistics'...
Oh, after 2,5 years of permanent air strikes even my 70yo mother-in-law is more experienced in such issues as an average NATO lieutenant.
More less trustable info was published in Syrsky report 2-3 weeks ago: interception ratio is like 50-55%. In western regions might be a bit worser (less tide AD), in central/eastern a bit better (more tide AD, more intense objects traffic), in Kyiv is like 90+%.
Real probs are X22 (hope stocks are physically exhausted), Kindzhals, Onyxes and Iskanders (M, 9M723 missile): interception ratio is like 10-15% max.
You are right, now even a child can tell the difference between the sound of a missile being shot down and a missile hitting its target. I live in a city where missile strikes are not uncommon. . So the sound of a ballistic missile hitting the ground can be heard all over the city, and our city is very long. When a missile is shot down in the air, the sound is more deafening and can be heard not so far away.
Tom, JFYI: many people confuse the incoming strike with the blast sound following the explosion of an intercepted missile. Specifically in the Western regions, where missile strikes are bot so many. Also, interception explosions are super-loud, which make people think that it's a heavy strike.
Also ZSU uses FPVs to haunt recon UAVs, see https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1828808649994854864
IMO that's the proper way - cheap solution for cheap UAVs. The West should jump into such research and help ZSU to make some FPVs or cheap guided missiles to kill Shahed drones. That would make the mobile teams useless.
I suppose, with this in future could be problem because china will ban for sale and loading of some components for fpv drones from 01.09.
I hope, that Ukrainian companies and government have alternative of this.
https://t.me/robert_magyar/918
Definitely, chinees companies are also not going to loose their profit. Next 1-2 months will be turbulent, but the way out will be found
Actually, situation isn't fully understandable because main Chinese delivery company (Meest China,) also claim that it refers only to standard delivery, not commercial ones
Chinese are born traders, so i cannot imagine situation they will refuse from profits for (actually, what is the purpose?) unknown goals. They will continue to sell spares/kits etc for both sides of war conflict via 3rd countries: for Ru - North Korea, Vietnam etc; for UA - Cambodia, Vietnam, HongKong, UAE etc
Back in 2022, Ukraine was heavily reliant on China for drones and drone parts. China was also selling to Russia and would prioritize Russian sales over Ukrainian sales. Back in October, China enacted some restrictions that impacted both Ukraine and Russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67078089
All the Ukrainian drone producers worked to reduce their dependency on China. They're ahead of their goal to produce a million drones this year and should be ok.
It is almost impossible to produce cheap cams and VTX controllers. Props, antennas, motors and flight controllers - not very easy, but possible. There are some UA brands producing mix of domestic techs and chinese spares (not bad quality, i would say)
Mobile teams were perfect for low flying Shakheds. Now as Shakheds are flying higher and more rapidly, MT are not of a great use, so will be reorganized/replaced soon
About UAV intercepting UAV: UA will be adopting to this issue much faster and with cheaper sollutions as West. It is an issue of survival, so simple. Ru is already criyng about huge recon UAVs losses (previously life time of recon UAV was counted in months, now - in days), but it is just the beginning: effective solution is still somewhere on engineer tables
Lack of debriefing; that's a weakness that could so easily be fixed 🤷🏼♂️. Let's hope they get their act together and get some proper 'lessons learnt' into the mix.
Good reporting meantime 👍
That is the worst to fix as you need to change peoples behaviour.
A fair point. Likely ingrained 😬. But i really hope they try.
Hi Tom. Thanks a lot for the update, always appreciated.
Have been reading every post you have done regarding the war in Ukraine. A sincere thank you!
I have read that Lt. Col Moonshine was killed on the groud at an airbase (including F16) after the base was geolocated due to photos published the day before.....
This sounds much more like a russian misstake than Ukranian....
I really do hope its not true, but surely Ukraine would comment on it if it wasnt.
Please continue as you have done previously, keep it up!
Your comment on it would be very much appreciated.
Thanks alot Tom for the update. I have been reading literally every post you have made regarding the war in Ukraine. A sincere thank you!
I guess you will comment in future posts, but is it true that "Lt col. Moonshine" lost his life including his F-16 on the 26 Aug in a airbase attack because Ukr media posted pictures that were used by the Russians to geolocate the F-16s airbase and attacked it?
I really hope its not true.
If it is, that sounds like a small disaster and sounds rather like a russian thing than Ukrainian.
Would appreciate your comments on this.
Yup. An F-16 of the PSU seems to have collided with one of Shaheds, killing its pilot, on 26 August.
Thank you for the comment!
Hi Tom.
I think that the calculation of the results "Russian media + Ukrainian social networks" is incorrect. There is nothing to say about the objectivity of the Russian media. And Ukrainian social networks will define as "hits" both targeted objects, and cruise missiles damaged by air defense fire and exploding within populated areas, or anti-aircraft missiles that detonated on the ground and missed their target, and at the same time missiles that exploded in the air at low altitude, if they also caused damage to buildings.
If I would be using that alone - surely not. Sadly, ever more details are emerging about facilities hit and damaged.
I’ve heard that Durov was released yesterday. I guess we’ll see if that will effect Burkina Faso exchange fund…
Hey Tom!
It’s Myrhorod not Mirhorod🙏🏻
And Kirovohrad was renamed to Kropyvnytskyi around 2014-2015
Using what I usually find on Google Maps and similar.
One article on the mobile machine guns I saw was with female volunteers firing WWII era soviet water cooled guns. So such efforts help morale, don't suck up to much resources and likley score some successes. If they cover a "Box" along known drone routes they can help a fair bit. Including spotting and identification, along with shooting down a portion of them.
Thanks for this Tom
It seems that one of the F16s has been lost. I suppose this had to happen but it’s disappointingly soon
Кто-то пишет, что это были свои же:(
What does that mean?
Tech malfunction or pilot mistake reported.
Only crazy deputy Bezuhla cries about friendly fire. And noone reports any russ impact
Bezuhla is anything else than 'crazy'. Bitter? Yes. Frustrated? Yes.
But, surely not crazy.
This time i disagree with you… she is really crazy. As crazy as Farion was (shot in Lviv a month ago). Widely quoted by ru PRBS, sponsored by … (no idea by whom) - she broadcasts darkests rumors and provokes scandals. Very negative person
See my update from today: it might help you understand why I do not consider her for crazy.
I am on it)
And i agree with your PoV in full: i am not going to question reasons of the F16 fallen and hope for investigation of this crash. I am going to insist on craziness of Bezuhla: she is really a person to hate, created by UA bureaucracy as “lightning rod”. So people discuss another scandal with Bezuhla and not the fact, for example, Pokrovsk administration spent back in june 2024 650k USD for “flowers and seedlings” or another 490k for roads reconstruction in the same town instead of fortifications and supply
Great update, I was listening to Eric Schmidt recently since he's been forced to register as an arms dealer due to his activities helping Ukraine. They have done studies a long with several Information Science experts and reached a conclusion at the moment that the side attacking more gets more of the benefits. I think this partly explains why Russia is getting better at utilizing their cruise missiles. I think with Ukraine developing its long range strike capabilities that will greatly improve Ukraine's position as well. They just need to continue figuring out ways of attacking even on Russian soil regardless of what Sullivan thinks.
A dead Russian brings more to his family than a living Russian — Le Monde
In fact, if a person decides to go to war and dies between the ages of 30 and 35, that is, at the age when he is most active and at his best, his death will be more "beneficial" from an economic point of view. Signing a contract with the army guarantees that he will earn ten times the minimum wage and, above all, will allow his loved ones, if he is killed in action, to receive a death bonus of up to 11 million rubles (about $121,340), depending on the region.
The "economy of death" is driving Russia's growth: the huge sums spent on the military industry, salaries for contractors and death bonuses for families are creating a financial "bubble" that keeps the war going, experts say.