Ukraine War 29 August 2024: The Seeming and the Real, Part 1

Hello everybody!

It seems, this is going to become another ‘long day’, thus I’ll get straight to the point, once again. Indeed, and thanks to tips from two readers, I’ll start with two ‘post scriptums’ to my last ‘update’.

At the first look, the first is near-certain to appear completely unrelated:

1.)    That since the coups d’etat of 2022 the military junta in Burkina Faso, led by Captain Ibrahim Traore, is ‘at least strongly influenced’ by Moscow, is well-known. What might have escaped attention is that the last few days it began arresting foreigners. For espionage. For example, a former French soldier was arrested in Ouagadougou. And that was followed by arrest of a Swiss citizen.

Yes, I know: there are lots of fake news related to Durov making circles through the social media. For example: that the UAE is cancelling its contract for the purchase of Dassault Rafale fighter-bombers from France. Because Durov is also a citizen of the UAE. And, it’s perfectly possible that the arrest of the Swiss citizen was an ‘unfortunate accident’, because: well, the Swiss happen to speak French, too, and who in Burkina can say a French from a Swiss?

Still, I think these two arrests should be kept in mind – especially if additional are to follow – because it’s perfectly possible that it’s actually Pudding who began collecting for his own ‘exchange fund’ – for Durov.

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2.)    The second point worth attention is the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force’s (PSU’s) way of ‘counting (missile/attack UAV) kills’ during such strikes like the one of 26 August. Essentially, and according to Zelensky’s own statements, they count only what they have detected. I.e. missiles (and/or attack UAVs) they didn’t detect are not counted. Even if scoring a hit.  

….the results of which cannot but be described as ‘doctoring the outcome’, even some of ‘lying to oneself (in addition to the public)’. Because, if they’ve detected 236 incoming missiles and/or attack UAVs, and claimed to have shot down 201, while, actually, there were 260-270 incoming missiles and/or attack UAVs, then… hm…

A still from a video showing a ‘stream’ of (at least) 7-8 Kh-101s passing by over the northern Sumy Oblast, on the morning of 26 August. Notably, at this point in time, the missile was underway at around 100 metres altitude: it is going to continue decreasing this altitude, the closer to the target it gets (except if pre-programmed to dive during its terminal flight phase: then it’s going to jink upwards before diving into the target almost vertically).

Arguably, the almost total control of the related reporting, and widespread power outages in the aftermath of the strike from the 26^th, were ‘effective’ in so far that next to nothing about Russian missiles and/or attack UAVs that did score hits was eventually published. However, a lots of ‘arrivals’ were reported, ‘verbally’. Indeed, when one ‘scans’ the Ukrainian social media, then adds ‘results’ reported in the Russian media, and from west towards east, the full list was something like this:  

-          Lutsk: 3

-          Rivne: 2

-          Lviv: 10 (1 gas pumping station is known to have been hit)

-          Ternopil: 3

-          Ivano-Frankivsk: 6 (1 gas pumping station is known to have been hit)

-          Khmelnitsky: 5

-          Vinnytsia: 7

-          Zhytomyr: 3

-          Kyiv Zhulyany: 2

-          Kyiv: 11

-          Kirovograd: 1

-          Kryvyi Rih: 2

-          Zaporizhzhya: 2

-          Dnipro: 2

-          Chernihiv: 1

-          Kharkiv: 4 (1 gas pumping station is known to have been hit)

-          Mirhorod: 1

-          Poltava: 1

-          Kremenchuk: 2

-          Odesa: 5

-          Mykolaiv: 3

….which is indicative of up to 66 Russian missiles and/or attack UAVs getting through the PSU’s air defences.

Even more so: considering the PSU reported the detection of 236 missiles and/or attack UAVs, and that 201 of these were shot down, it can be deducted that the Ukrainians have failed to detect over 30 other missiles/and or attack UAVs, too.

Call me ‘pro-Russian’ if you like, but: that is a lot! Indeed, that’s no ‘ah, just 35 came through’ and ‘that’s a defence success’, but ‘damn, many more than 60 came through, and the PSU failed to detect over 50% of those that did get through’.

….and, if that is at least approximately truth (which, actually, I hope is not), well: I see no reason for celebration, because that would mean that the Russians are getting ever better in the routing of their cruise missiles and attack UAVs. And, as should be known by now: when the Russians are getting better in one or another discipline, that’s always bad for Ukraine. Except, of course, you belong to a nation with a penchant for avoiding the unpleasant. Including avoiding post-mission de-briefs to to ‘learn the lessons’. Can happen - especially considering there are several such nations.

Somewhere, it’s ironic: the Russian Black Sea Fleet is meanwhile under such a pressure that it’s warships (and submarines) are forced to launch their Kalibr cruise missiles from close to the coast in the Novorossiysk area - so close that their launches can be observed from the coast, like in this case - and thus ever further away from Ukraine. Still, the Russian routing of the missiles is getting ever better, resulting in ever higher numbers of cruise missiles (and attack UAVs) avoiding detection by the PSU. So also once they are deep within the Ukrainian airspace.

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AIR/MISSILE WAR

There are so many ‘other news’ in this regards, that eventually I’ll have to split this ‘update’ into at least two parts.

For the start, and regarding the means with which the incoming Russian cruise missiles and attack UAVs are shot down… there seem to be ever more complains in Ukraine about the ‘effectiveness’ of mobile fire teams (i.e. SUV-mounted machine gun detachments, abbreviated with MBGs in Ukrainian). Accordingly, and although ‘sometimes successful’, in grand total they’re wasting lots of troops, ammunition and time, while actually hitting very little….

Guess, this is why it would be opportune for the PSU to be much more precise with its claims – and also introduce the practice of serious post-mission de-briefing. Otherwise, starting with PSU’s own commanders, everybody is reduced to wild guessing.

(….why do I have a feeling we’ve been talking about this, time and again, this year….?

….must be that famous itch in my small toe…)

What is certain, though, is that the Russian strikes on 26 and 27 have resulted in PSU’s F-16s scoring their first kills. Now, can’t say if the video from which the following screen grab was taken is showing an F-16, or a MiG-29, but it’s quite likely that most of kills in question were looking like that.

See: an AIM-9M- (F-16) or R-73 (MiG-29) infra-red-homing, short-range air-to-air missile launched from around 400-500 metres range (i.e. at the verge of its minimal engagement envelope), at a Shahed motoring around at a speed of around 120km/h…

An interceptor of the PSU firing a short-range air-to-air missile at a Shahed (invisible on this screen-grab) underway at around 1,000 metres altitude, some 400-500 metres in front of the jet.

And, just like the Russians are meanwhile deploying their… ‘temperamental’ Mi-28s rather for UAV-hunting behind the frontline, than for attacks on the Ukrainian ground forces – the Ukrainians are meanwhile primarily deploying Mi-8 and Mi-24 of their army aviation for intercepting Shaheds and other of Russian UAVs:  

A Mi-24 attack helicopter of the Ukrainian Army Aviation as seen in the process of machine-gunning a Shahed (visible as a ‘black dot’ to the left). Not sure if the Mil-crew used its undernose-barbette (or the mechanician was firing a machine gun out of one of cabin windows on the left side of the helicopter).

A Mi-8 of the Ukrainian Army Aviation as seen moments after its crew shot down a Shahed: the latter can be seen in form of a ‘small black dot’, flipping out of control and already in its terminal dive, almost directly under the helicopter. Yup, not all the ‘air combats’ are resulting in ‘big, orange, fuel-fuelled explosions in the sky’, as ‘taught’ by Hollywood movies…

….and that so much so, meanwhile the Russians are crying about heavy losses of their reconnaissance UAVs.

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(….to be continued…)