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Definitely 'more than is known'.

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RemovedSep 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
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Did you means these news about installing naval weapons on top of MT-LB APC? https://t.me/stranaua/124355

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The Russians are on defense everywhere now.

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We'll see. At least they seem to be unable to accumulate artillery and elite / VDV forces.

If there is a breakthrough, some Russian forces may get surrounded and there is a chance to capture armor or ammo.

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Question is 300 dead or 300 dead, hard injured, surrounded? in 1st case it is ok, 2 case is not as possitive and also how accurate are their numbers? Are they counting only visually confirmed or make also estimate how many can be eliminate in trenches, with mines...

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300 deads means at least 300 pernamently injured. russia is sending 20-25000 new mobic every month, but this amount is not enough becase UA says 500 deads means anouther 500 injured, so in reality Ru looses 30-40000 per month. For a some period you can use all your regular forces from whole russia, syria, armenia.. and also maybe wagners which were probably not counted in this 20000 from tom. But now it seems that there is no regular army, no wagners, so ru army is degreading also in quantity not only in quality.

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Because the Russians stopped their costly counterattacks in the area south of Bakhmut (and the ZSU is much further in that area, than any war-mappers dare showing).

Moreover, considering how much is the ZSU artillery shelling the Russians in southern Zaporizhzhya, I doubt even the GenStab-U could say, right now, how many of Russians facing the TF Tavriya are still alive.

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Nice start to the day...

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Sep 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Sitting in warm, safe places and being patient shouldn’t be too hard of a task to successfully complete…

Thanks Tom and have a nice day!

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Is there any firm information about how much further fixed defences or minefields Russia has been able to prepare further south?

Just a thought; NOW is the time to hit the Kerch bridge as hard as possible!

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I actually agree with ETH military economics professor Keupp: the bridge is still open to give the Russians a way out of Crimea. That doesn't belong primarily to the Russian army, but more to the Russian civilians (relatives of Russian sailors and soldiers, Russians working in tourism, etc.)

It is better to let them run away than have afterwards to deal with that problem. Basically the same way Stalin got the German population out of eastern prussia. Not nice, but hey - Ukrainians never got asked if they want that war.

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I was thinking that a severed Kerch bridge would cause the russian logistics such problems so that the whole occupation would crumble, perhaps fall to pieces. Even better if the Kerch straits could be blocked, considerable russian naval forces would then be locked up in the sea of Azov.

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Another donation made! And let’s be honest with ourselves too: this is where it gets really expensive! Sadly, both in people and material...

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thank you for the upgrade, all fingers crossed the assault be successful.

Two questions about other battlefields:

- in the last few days (maybe in ten days) the russians managed to hit two mig-29 with Lancets at airfields. One was near Mykolaiv, Kulbakyne AB, the other I can't find now. Is there a longer range lancet version on the field or the AFU brought their planes closer to the frontline?

- Also there were videos about the road bridge at Kupyansk being blown up by some missile strike. (As far as I see, this was a newly build auxiliary bridge beside the earlier damaged bridge) How serious this can be to the Ukrainian supply lines east of Kupyansk? I get it that previously the VSRF moved all available troops from the "northern offensive" to the south, but in case of an impending defeat there the PRBS strategy is to show achievements anyhow.

If the UAF supply is dwindling there, than it can be an attractive idea to move back (or move there) everybody they can (and the damn with the lines in the south which are going to be lost anyhow) and show only the "good news about a smashing attack" around Kupyansk. The UAF has strategic goals in the south, they will hardly redistribute troops from there if a significant breaktrough is on the table. PR is important to the UAF too, and losing ground elsewhere doesn't look good.

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The weather is enormously dry. I expect it will be so easy to buildup additional or repair any of previously hit bridges

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So much good news, was your body overtaken by an alien.

Seriously it's very good to hear and thank you again for your work.

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Sep 28, 2023·edited Sep 28, 2023

Thanks, Tom, your updates are always welcome.

Tough I have to confess - even if I'm sure that you don't like to read it - that I misuse you as an analyst and expert in military matters: For some time now I am sneaking into your sphere of information with the desire to obtain my daily dose of hopium and copium.

I've learned from your analyses, that the fighting is basically a fluid affair with several layers of fields and nests and trenches and lines as part of a defence in depth, leaving practically no room for a decisive break-through and all that remains is the grinding down of enemy resources until the costs of keeping up the military effort become to high for the opponent, so that he might possibly yield somehow finally.

But nevertheless for me your reports convey a whiff of quasi-religious conviction, that the unthinkable is feasible, the behemoth can be stopped, victory is within reach and salvation from the evil will be found in the end.

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Please, no 'religion': I'm far from being right all the time, I'm making mistakes, and nothing I 'say' is a dogma.

Yes, wars are 'dynamic' affairs. One position is captured in one minute, then lost the other, then recovered again... can happen and is happening all the time. And losses are not only 'happening' but - and especially in a war as big and intensive as this one - 'de-facto a must'. Sadly.

What matters is who's got to recover bodies and loot at the end.

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Why no room for a decisive break-through and all that remains is the grinding down of enemy resources? ZSU could go around and break-through via Kherson crossing Dnipro river or via Donetsk to cut most of the rushists occupants to Novoazovsk and destroying that Kerch bridge. However, nobody knows, except zelensky's Genshtab, why they chose to attack the most fortified way in the south Robotyne-Tokmak-Melitopol with very obvious and well predictable results.

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There are no large transport ships to safely move the vehicles over Dnipro.

The access to Donetsk was being fortified for 8 years, and city combat favors defenders.

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There is no need for ships to cross the river, just pontoon bridges like rushists did year ago under Antonivskyi bridge when went out of Kherson.

No need to enter and keep fighting in Donetsk city itself. There are no mine fields around Donetsk, check deepstate map.

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Sep 29, 2023·edited Sep 29, 2023

Nobody tried, there were Minsk agreements where UA illegitimately accepted occupation of Donbass.

However not that difficult if you add mine fields to penetrate and conquer that place on south

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Any bridges are easy to shell if you don't control both shores.

Would you please suggest a direction (names of villages) for the breakthrough near Donetsk, keeping in mind that it should be about 30 km wide to allow for artillery to enter the liberated ground?

Do you really trust deepstate maps about mine fields in the Russian rear? How do they know?

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Oleksandrivka-Volodymyrivka. There are much less fortifications and trenches (than to Robotyne-Tokmak) and most likely they were absent in the begining of counter-offensive stage in May.

If they indicate most of rushist's fortifications, they should somehow found it out. You should ask them how do they know it.

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1) Everything in between the villages is plain fields. The Russians found out under Vuhledar what it means to attack without cover.

2) The map of fortifications shows a line of trenches there as well. Probably mined. https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=47.73766697810333%2C37.62738775635157&z=11

3) The gap between those villages leads south-east, while ZSU needs to reach the seashore in the South. Thus the attack would need to either go around Volnovakha and expose a flank to counterattacks from Donetsk, or try to break through the fortified Volnovakha agglomeration, where IIRC there is a railroad connection to Russia, meaning there'll always be enough shells on the Russian side.

4) Fortifications are visible on satellite images, unlike mine fields. Thus one should not trust maps of mine fields in areas inaccessible to ZSU.

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Sep 28, 2023·edited Sep 28, 2023

Please don't ask me such questions, I'm only a commentator without a clue and can't assess the possibilities: cutting the land bridge, reaching the sea, grinding down the war machinery, exhausting and destroying the enemy. The strategy is changing in accordance with circumstances and necessities, mainly unknown to me; both sides are adapting continuously. I witness the damage, the losses, the ubiquitous destruction and the war appears to me like a cruel military stalemate.

When I then get information from an expert privy to confidential information straight from the horse's mouth, who reassures me about the final outcome, I readily believe him, because I have nothing else to cling to. We shouldn't overestimate our comprehension as outside observers, so much is simply belief, whether you like it or not.

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The Russians have mined that whole area across the Dnipro.

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You can be certain that if the thing you suggested was possible and advantageous to Ukraine, they would have done it. The fact that they haven't means that one or both conditions is not satisfied.

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Maybe you can also answer how it happened that rushists could occupy all south (easily crossing mined bridges in Chongar), north of UA in a couple of days, rushist agents appeared on top positions of Security Service of UA, vagnergate scandal wasn't a fake as declared when it appeared at first?

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What about 25 CAA that they say if new and reployed in that area to break the ZSU attacks?

As per https://x.com/RALee85/status/1707104332825424317?s=20

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The 25th CAA began deploying to that area already in late August, and then with the aim of enabling mauled units of the 1st GTA, 2nd GCAA, 41st CAA etc. to be pulled out and rebuilt.

With other words: no trace of clue why is that such 'news' today.

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Meanwhile Putin went back to nuclear-war fear-mongering, since that is all that is left apparently

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We trust the ZSU will achieve a breakthrough, thanks for the update

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Great news Tom thanks

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General question for Tom about feelings...for fun.

I always have such an optimistic mood after reading your analyses.

And then I go to watch a Russian YouTube channel (e.g. Military Summary) and I can see a lot of videos and losses of Ukrainians (with fab bombs, or rocket hits UA airfileds last time..), which you (perhaps falsely) omit in your analyses, and my optimism suddenly disappears.

How can I stay more calm?

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Read the ISW reports https://www.understandingwar.org/

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Typical result of propaganda. To balance watch Ukrainian videos. War is a double sided and it is impossible without losses Russians throw fabs but ZSU uses Jdams

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Heh.... I see the same videos every day. But, 'devil is in the detail'.

When you're watching such videos, pay attention at what exactly are they showing. Say, a video showing a 'Lancet hit on tank': is the video cut immediately after the hit, and there is nothing to see of the 'post-strike scene', you can bet your annual income it didn't cause any kind of damage.

Also, try to memorise videos: up to 50% of videos released by the Pudding's PRBS-machinery (whether in Russia our outside of it), were actually released by Ukrainians. I.e. they're fakes.

With other words: 'all that glitters is not gold' - and that's also the reason why I'm so rarely posting any links to the mass of Russian videos.

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I think I know all RU propaganda lies. Cutting videos, using the same video in more videos (speciality Military Sumarry), inflated UA loses on paper, focus on unimportant (himars vs cheap targets)....some of their "facts" are funny...paper can witstand anything...especially the russian one;o).

But I can resist the impresion your self-censorship suppresses UA mistakes sometimes.

I hope your next article will be high positive for UA counter-ofensive.

We have to be patient.

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Sep 29, 2023·edited Sep 29, 2023Author

Since you've mentioned 'self-censorship'....

I do apply a lot of it. Foremost in regards of OPSEC.

For example: two days ago, I've mentioned the 15th Kara-Dag and the 71st Jäger as involved in assaults in the area between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. I didn't mention the 116th Mech. Now, two days later, I do 'feel free' to mention it. Because I'm sure 'even' the Russians meanwhile know it's there (and, I'm sure, they know where is it, too).

As for 'Ukrainian mistakes': early during the war there were a lot of them, and I've regularly mentioned any I knew about. Meanwhile, there is little the ZSU can do to fight better: it simply hasn't got enough means. Only endlessly lots of courage. Heck, even the 46th (which run away at Soledar, opening the Russians the way into Bakhmut) is meanwhile excelling. Thus, can't blame them.

Can only observe I'm deeply impressed by demonstrated courage.

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In this video they are explaining one example the way Tom described it: https://youtu.be/CLClY0-Rq54?si=Rj7PJSgtdcgz-rBG

Back in the day Hitler fooled the British about the amount of German tanks before the war by letting the same tanks just drive in a circle and show up at the parade again. Never trust any information that comes out of a side fighting an information war.

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Thanks, Tom. SLOW progress seems to be the answer in this campaign. When the "third tier" is breached, perhaps the doubters will see their much-desired "Blitzkrieg"

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