Hello everybody! A very brief ‘update’ for today… By now, I think it’s no ‘news’ that the last 48 hours the ZSU has unleashed (quote) ‘apocalyptic volumes’ of artillery fire upon the Russian positions south-west, south, and south-east of Robotyne and in the Verbove area. That’s at least how the few Russians still reporting about developments in this region are describing the situation.
thank you for the upgrade, all fingers crossed the assault be successful.
Two questions about other battlefields:
- in the last few days (maybe in ten days) the russians managed to hit two mig-29 with Lancets at airfields. One was near Mykolaiv, Kulbakyne AB, the other I can't find now. Is there a longer range lancet version on the field or the AFU brought their planes closer to the frontline?
- Also there were videos about the road bridge at Kupyansk being blown up by some missile strike. (As far as I see, this was a newly build auxiliary bridge beside the earlier damaged bridge) How serious this can be to the Ukrainian supply lines east of Kupyansk? I get it that previously the VSRF moved all available troops from the "northern offensive" to the south, but in case of an impending defeat there the PRBS strategy is to show achievements anyhow.
If the UAF supply is dwindling there, than it can be an attractive idea to move back (or move there) everybody they can (and the damn with the lines in the south which are going to be lost anyhow) and show only the "good news about a smashing attack" around Kupyansk. The UAF has strategic goals in the south, they will hardly redistribute troops from there if a significant breaktrough is on the table. PR is important to the UAF too, and losing ground elsewhere doesn't look good.
Tough I have to confess - even if I'm sure that you don't like to read it - that I misuse you as an analyst and expert in military matters: For some time now I am sneaking into your sphere of information with the desire to obtain my daily dose of hopium and copium.
I've learned from your analyses, that the fighting is basically a fluid affair with several layers of fields and nests and trenches and lines as part of a defence in depth, leaving practically no room for a decisive break-through and all that remains is the grinding down of enemy resources until the costs of keeping up the military effort become to high for the opponent, so that he might possibly yield somehow finally.
But nevertheless for me your reports convey a whiff of quasi-religious conviction, that the unthinkable is feasible, the behemoth can be stopped, victory is within reach and salvation from the evil will be found in the end.
General question for Tom about feelings...for fun.
I always have such an optimistic mood after reading your analyses.
And then I go to watch a Russian YouTube channel (e.g. Military Summary) and I can see a lot of videos and losses of Ukrainians (with fab bombs, or rocket hits UA airfileds last time..), which you (perhaps falsely) omit in your analyses, and my optimism suddenly disappears.
Thanks, Tom. SLOW progress seems to be the answer in this campaign. When the "third tier" is breached, perhaps the doubters will see their much-desired "Blitzkrieg"
Nice start to the day...
Sitting in warm, safe places and being patient shouldn’t be too hard of a task to successfully complete…
Thanks Tom and have a nice day!
Is there any firm information about how much further fixed defences or minefields Russia has been able to prepare further south?
Just a thought; NOW is the time to hit the Kerch bridge as hard as possible!
Another donation made! And let’s be honest with ourselves too: this is where it gets really expensive! Sadly, both in people and material...
thank you for the upgrade, all fingers crossed the assault be successful.
Two questions about other battlefields:
- in the last few days (maybe in ten days) the russians managed to hit two mig-29 with Lancets at airfields. One was near Mykolaiv, Kulbakyne AB, the other I can't find now. Is there a longer range lancet version on the field or the AFU brought their planes closer to the frontline?
- Also there were videos about the road bridge at Kupyansk being blown up by some missile strike. (As far as I see, this was a newly build auxiliary bridge beside the earlier damaged bridge) How serious this can be to the Ukrainian supply lines east of Kupyansk? I get it that previously the VSRF moved all available troops from the "northern offensive" to the south, but in case of an impending defeat there the PRBS strategy is to show achievements anyhow.
If the UAF supply is dwindling there, than it can be an attractive idea to move back (or move there) everybody they can (and the damn with the lines in the south which are going to be lost anyhow) and show only the "good news about a smashing attack" around Kupyansk. The UAF has strategic goals in the south, they will hardly redistribute troops from there if a significant breaktrough is on the table. PR is important to the UAF too, and losing ground elsewhere doesn't look good.
So much good news, was your body overtaken by an alien.
Seriously it's very good to hear and thank you again for your work.
Het Tom, it seems ru causalities have dropped from 500+ to 300+ per day according to GenStab UA. Any thoughts why this is happening?
Thanks, Tom, your updates are always welcome.
Tough I have to confess - even if I'm sure that you don't like to read it - that I misuse you as an analyst and expert in military matters: For some time now I am sneaking into your sphere of information with the desire to obtain my daily dose of hopium and copium.
I've learned from your analyses, that the fighting is basically a fluid affair with several layers of fields and nests and trenches and lines as part of a defence in depth, leaving practically no room for a decisive break-through and all that remains is the grinding down of enemy resources until the costs of keeping up the military effort become to high for the opponent, so that he might possibly yield somehow finally.
But nevertheless for me your reports convey a whiff of quasi-religious conviction, that the unthinkable is feasible, the behemoth can be stopped, victory is within reach and salvation from the evil will be found in the end.
What about 25 CAA that they say if new and reployed in that area to break the ZSU attacks?
As per https://x.com/RALee85/status/1707104332825424317?s=20
Meanwhile Putin went back to nuclear-war fear-mongering, since that is all that is left apparently
We trust the ZSU will achieve a breakthrough, thanks for the update
Great news Tom thanks
General question for Tom about feelings...for fun.
I always have such an optimistic mood after reading your analyses.
And then I go to watch a Russian YouTube channel (e.g. Military Summary) and I can see a lot of videos and losses of Ukrainians (with fab bombs, or rocket hits UA airfileds last time..), which you (perhaps falsely) omit in your analyses, and my optimism suddenly disappears.
How can I stay more calm?
Thanks, Tom. SLOW progress seems to be the answer in this campaign. When the "third tier" is breached, perhaps the doubters will see their much-desired "Blitzkrieg"