30 Comments
Oct 28, 2023·edited Oct 28, 2023

Thanks for report. As I know it was Atacams strike near Lugansk that hitted C 400. It is unconfirmed but some sources say that 3 launchers were destroyed. And did an activity of Russian helicopters reduced due to recent strikes?

And how can ZSU establish pontoons under constant presence of multiple UMPK strikes every day? I think only option is to deploy one battery of Patriot with risk of destruction?

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Oct 28, 2023·edited Oct 28, 2023Author

That with 'destroyed S-400s' is like 'we've shot down two ATACMs': claims. Haven't seen any kind of evidence yet.

Re. UMPKs: will be discussed tomorrow.

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Very interesting about the Dnipro crossings. Does the ZSU have the forces and equipment to open another front?

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Some say it does, others are.... 'warning'. So, no clear idea, right now.

That said, I would say it's really about 'equipment', not about 'units' or 'troops'.

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It's rather preparing better conditions for 2024 campaign than launching a new front in the near future.

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Also pulling Russian troops from further East so valuable for that alone.

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Also attacking in a relatively unfortified area

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Thanks for the update. It is increasingly difficult to find updates on Ukraine now that everybody is looking at Gaza. I am still concerned about Aadvika, the slow methodological attack at Bakhmut required spending convicts figthing from Wagner like water, but to some degree worked. So they are doing it again. Scary. Regarding crossing the Dnipro, that is good News, hitting them where they arent, but it remains to see the strategic effects.

Regarding Gaza its not as If thats not terrible and important, I just want to be able to follow what is happening two different wars. Btw, I did read your comment on that war today, but was unable to comment on on. I got some message saying only paid subscribers. I thought I was, If not tell me and I will try torectify it. Now If you have decided you dont want your «piss poor analysis» be followed by Even worse (probably) driver that is completly ok. For News from Gaza it seems to be difficult to discuss anything anywhere. I just want to know whether i can comment or not.

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Whatever the system tells you if you try, I've closed all the commenting on my reporting on Israel/Palestine. Just wasting time explaining the very same stuff to different people - who do not even care to inform themselves, but are out for impressing propaganda and unsubstantiated opinions upon everybody else. Sorry, but got better things to do.

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

That is totally ok. I also understand Having read the comments Section of your earlier reports. I read and like instead.Do keep writing, because they are informative.

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Minor typo (but most probably understand)

“Avdiivka… after burning through resources against all military logic, on 25 and 26 September, . . .”

should be October (or ALSO in October!)

Keep up the good work!

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Thx. Corrected.

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Oct 28, 2023·edited Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Oleg Vlasov was awarded the hero of the Russian Federation. He's the commander 810 NI Brigade.

https://nts-tv.com/news/komandir-810-y-brigady-morskoy-pekhoty-oleg-vlasov-48346/

P.s. That brigade which lost at least 50% of its personnel.

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author

Losses do not matter: he was decorated for following his orders.

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you Tom for another great report , I like reading them and get a good picture of what is happening

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Dear Tom. How do You think, all this attacks of russians are wishes of receiving strategik of initiative on battlefield? Or it starting autumn-winter company in Ukraine?

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Interesting comment about the Russians learning faster. But I am wondering about something, in Bakhmut the Russians learned eventually, and were able to use Wagner to pull it off (i.e. small infantry groups with artillery support gradually eating away, etc. assisted by some UA screw ups like around Soledar). But they have no Wagner this time and no equivalent. The VDV is either tied down or wrecked, Naval Infantry the same, so they will have to use regulars/Mobliks to do this. Do they have the leadership and ability to make this work with this (much) lesser grade force?

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

It would be cool if you did another QeA about this war

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author

Yup: think, right now there's no way around doing exactly that.

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I was really looking forward to your report. Thank you.

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Thanks Tom for another valuable and in focus update. Let the dogs howl and keep with the good work!

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks, Tom, for your coverage of the war in Ukraine. There is a mega-expert in Ukraine, Arestovich, who advises to go on stratigic defence and curtail offensive actions in the south and start burying in the ground along the entire line. Also the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces on the Dnieper bring nothing but disturbing action. And he also says that the troops near Avdiivka are unlikely to hold the area for long.

Do you think he is right?

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Arestovich used to say "do not critique or advice General Staff, unless you have the same level of information as them". He also used to say "We must be united - disunity would kill us faster then ruzzians".

I wander what made him change...

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Арестович говорил: «Не критикуйте и не советуйте Генштабу, если вы не обладаете таким же уровнем информации, как он» Данную фразу говорил Свитан. А Арестович вообще начал рассказывать, что Зеленский выбирает место главного удара по крайней мере на Юге. В общем Арестович уже метит себя в президенты и наверное будет создавать партию, короче готовится к выборам и начинает критиковать власть, так как на критике можно больше получить голосов. В общем тема с этим мессией, который спасет Украину можно закрывать и так понятно куда он гнет. Мы с 2008 года выбираем спасителя Украины, но никак не выберем...

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I cant put my finger on it, but there is something I find really odd about Arestovych. He sounds like someone who would say anything to gain more attention.

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you for your update Tom.

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Oct 29, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

You might enjoy this concise video summarising current world events:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0Zb9iUi0JM&pp=ygULanVpY2UgbWVkaWE%3D

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author

Yup, thx: is one of my favorite sources of inspiration.

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Thanks for the updates. I wonder how the Ukrainians will overcome mines after crossing the river but I trust they are considering this to a much larger extent than say before the recent counter offensive. In all this I wish them the best because nothing they're doing is easy.

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Thanks again for the update. I fear for Avdiivka. The RF is throwing so many bodies at this offensive that the quantity becomes a quality on its own.

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