Ukraine War, 28 October 2023

Hello everybody!

A short update for today, to catch with the news of the last three or four days…

AIR WAR

Yesterday early in the morning, the newest (known to me) Ukrainian ATACMs strike seems to have blown up lots of Russians at the Tokmak airport. Details are pending, though.

The PSU claimed to have shot down 3 Iskander-K missiles, early this morning, too.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Klishchivka & Andriivka… fighting is going on along two hedgerows where Ukrainians advanced on Odradivka, four days ago, with the Russians trying to squeeze the ZSU advance by counterattacks from both north and south. ZSU artillery is heavily active, and the Russians do not like this the least.

Kurdyumivka… the 28th Mech seem to have launched a major attack from two directions: one into Zelenopillya, from the north, the other through Kurdyumivka from the west. Fighting is still going on and the outcome is presently unknown (though, I’m assessing the 28^th as ‘experienced enough’ to know not to attempt this kind of operations without knowing why).

A view at the (completely ruined, but meanwhile largely ‘Russians-free’) Kurdyumivka.

Avdiivka… after burning through resources against all military logic, on 25 and 26 October, it appears that the last three-four days, the Russians have switched their tactics. Instead of simultaneous attacks from the north and from the south, they went over to alternating these attacks: on one day, they attack from the north, on the other, from the south.

What spoiled some of this planning was a Ukrainian counterattack of 24 October, which drove the Russians out of two major field fortifications north of Spartak: not only that they had to re-deploy some of their depleted reserves to stabilise the frontline in that village, but now they’re not sure about possible other Ukrainian intentions in this area.

A burning Russian MT-LB armoured personnel carrier, with bodies of its crew and troops it used to carry…

I do not think ZSU might want to go very much further south, but this is as important because it’s definitely so that the Russians are meanwhile much quicker in learning their lessons: this time, it took them only something like 7-10 days to realise that their all-out blow on Avdiivka isn’t going to work, and they have to return to the old, step-by-step-approach, which proved successful in Bakhmut. They might learn a few lessons from this Ukrainian counterattack, too (and better watch their own frontline, just for example).

BTW, as mentioned in my last update, the ZSU has re-deployed the 47^th Mech into this area already earlier: meanwhile, the 1^st Tank Brigade is there, too. Thus, the situation remains ‘unpleasant’, but stabile.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Dnipro… As reported earlier, Ukrainian Naval Infantry punched over the road between Poima and Pishchanivka. Ever since, it has also crossed the Krynky River, further north, and secured the central portion of the village with the same name. With this, there is now a third ZSU bridgehead on the Dnipro (in addition to those at Poima and Pidstepne), and this is some 3x8km deep and wide.

The question is now that of where can Ukrainians push the Russians further away before constructing a ponton bridge and transferring heavy weapons in serious numbers?

I doubt even the Russians can guess the answer, and yesterday, the ZSU further increased their dilemma by attacking in the Oleshok area: that’s north-east of Oleshky.