Hello everybody! Successful Ukrainian ground operations of the last few days have ‘thrown up a lots of dirt’, and thus it’s very hard to keep a track on what’s going on on the ground. Moreover, some of developments are better not disclosed ‘straight away’. Thus here just a few of ‘updates’ and that ‘telegraphically’…
Thank you for update, Tom. Finger crossed for ZSU. There was a huge squal line, which after Austria 🇦🇹 moved to the east causing a lot of storms on the way. I do hope it was the real reason of Shadows' silence. God bless ZSU.
Thank you for the news. But on the very day of the attack nearly at 19.00 during the attack itself it was reported that the attack was aimed at Khmelnitsky oblast, and some 2 hours later it was announced that the exact aim was Staroconstantinov. So Ukrainian authorities knew it nearly from the beginning. Concerning the probable result the reports are contradictory but Zelensky congratulated ZSU with success and so did the higher military officials.
Thanks, Tom! So, wow, from this report it seems that ZSU has "destroyed" the whole 42nd division, or at the very least made it combat ineffective. I would expect that if the last remaining MRR (291st?) was still capable for combat it would be sent as a reserve, rather than those BARS outfits. All in all, basically half of the 58th CAA, the most capable Russian formation in the South, should now be out of action? That's pretty significant news, let's hope ZSU can exploit it further.
A question regarding small numbers of Su-24 being used to launch Storm Shadows: wouldn't it make more sense for UAF to ask NATO for Tornados, either from UK (if they have any left), Germany or Italy, rather than wait for the promised F-16? Tornados could be used to launch long range A-G missiles without any modification necessary for Sukhois, and ECR version would be much better for SEAD duties than current practice of lobbing HARMS from MiG-29 in the general direction of Russian AD systems. Sure, Tornados aren't as sexy as F-16, but they were designed for low-level attacks (exactly what we're seeing in Ukraine now), and would be able to complement or completely substitute the dwindling numbers of Su-24 available.
It takes time to train pilots and technicians on the Tornado. It is faster and cheaper to refurbish Su-24 from storage or to adapt Su-27 to carry Storm Shadow.
In order for the Tornado ECR to take advantage of its sensor suite, both for detection and jamming, it would have to fly higher than treetop level, exposing itself to Ru fighters it cannot defeat.
I heard the spokesperson of the Ukrainian airforce saying that ideally they would like 1 multi role jet in large quantities and if forced, max 2 different combat jets. So F16s is their priority for this reason. It can do SEAD/DEAD, ISR, CAP missions, etc. Then if circumstances/limited resources require a second combat jet, you have the gripen,F18, tornado, mirage 2000,etc.
Theoretically: yes. Tornados are compatible with both Storm Shadow and with SCALP-EG.
However, Tornados are even more complex to maintain, operate, and fly, than F-16 - and, AFAIK, they should be at least in as poor condition as most of F-16AMs Ukraine is likely to get.
After ZSU has done such a good job with spreading its ammo and POL depots, it will be a shame if they have concentrated all of their airpower and the attached missiles in one base. (Unless we are talking about the last SU-25)
Several needs of Ukrainia has gone unanswered or insufficiently answered during the war. Nothing special about air defences in that respect. Which of course doesnt onvalidate your question.
Thanks for update Personally I remember that Ignat reported about that misses go to Khmelnytskyy Oblast In 2 hours before strike It means that it is a big chance that Su 24 managed to take off at least a few However it is possible that broken Storm Shadow stores could be destroyed Although there are a few possible reasons of Storm Shadow strikes absence like preparation of new massive strike(collecting information about depots and other important targets in order to hit in right moment like big attack of ZSU in order to shock enemy during few hours). It is also real storm in Robotyne and Orikhiv area during last 2 days that make missile launching more dangerous and difficult. Of course, it can be just self-soothing but now we can just wait on new messages about succesful missle strikes of Russian army
Yet another possibility: insignificant damage from the Rusian attack but Ukraine plays it as disabling. The Russians then make bold moves believing they are immune from attack.
When the Russians declared that the Ukrainian offensive in the south in June resulted in heavy losses in Western vehicles, nobody believed them. However, now the US news write that 20% of the Western-provided armor was lost in the first weeks of the assault.
Now, the Russians again claim that many Western vehicles were destroyed near Robotyne.
As I remember they wrote about 20 % of armor which was used on battlefield Secondly 20 % includes damaged too. Bradley and Leopards have higher recovery potential than soviet IFV and tanks. Thirdly, West already replaced all losses in Bradleys and partially in Leopards(extra 4 from Spain)
Personally, I trust Oryx more than Russians who already destroyed aviation third time, 4 time destroyed all Himarses and killed 300 000 mercenaries from Poland Of course, Ukraine lost a lot of Bradleys but during this offensive even Russians complain on destruction of artillery and SPAA (https://t.me/bulbe_de_trones/5189) that is more important for offensive than IFV and few tanks
Thanks Tom first part good news looking like the UAF is getting some traction in some areas , not so good with the Russian strike on the UAF airfield let hope they came get some aircraft back in the air soon, ( this is not good but for once the Russians act struck something to help themselves )
Assuming there is damage to PSU ability to launch cruise missile attacks.... And assuming the U.S.A. has done "nothing" in response to the most recent Russian altercation with MQ-9 drone... I wonder what prevents the USA from "leasing" some of our "inactive" F-117's (https://theaviationist.com/2023/05/22/f-117-nighthawk-stealth-jets-jber/) to replace or improve any lost capability. I would be thrilled to see the TU-95 base hit, maybe a couple of their ports, maybe Kalinigrad, for example. I don't really believe the entire "training" time issue- a skilled pilot should be able to master some significant percentage of the capability within a week or two, right? Especially with the autopilot/autonomous/remote operation capabilities of modern aircraft and drones. Stick a MQ-9 control system in the F-117 with the pilot. Yeah, I know it isn't THAT easy but given the situation and access I know I would have someone working on it.
I'm hoping you will have a future book or article on the Russian/MQ-9 episodes. I'd really like to know what the USA has done in response.
Learning to fly and fight with the F-117 should be far shorter and easier than an F-16, no need to modify it. Single mission, no radar or ecm. They just need to be good at night flying and learn to use the flir and laser targeting. The big question is if the F-117 can survive against current Ru SAMs and fighters - is it invisible enough?
I think this is something we could see once Ukraine starts sieging Crimea after the Western combat aircraft have arrived. I think once F16s are in place other such platforms will proliferate. But I dont think they will be allowed to target Russian soil.
F-117A is simply obsolete, and wouldn't be of much use in Ukraine.
The jet was designed to fly strikes with LGBs in the 1980s and 1990s: it was vulnerable already over Serbia in 1999, and would be even more vulnerable over Ukraine 30 years later.
Modern-day-strikes of that kind are delivered with weapons like Storm Shadows.
Thanks for the update. Here's to hoping the PSU had relocated its Su-24s to some other location before the strike. Otherwise its great news they were able to move further in the Orikhiv axis. I wonder what the situation will be once the Ukrainians get past Tokmak, I doubt the Russians have enough time and resources to mine the whole of the rear once the Ukrainians get there and before the Russians retreat
Tokmak is already enough. It is the central railway hub connecting the land bridge east to west/crimea. If the russians lose it and Ukraine can disable the the kerch railway bridge they are basically fucked in the whole south.
I see. I hope Ukraine's counter offensive doesn't culminate at Tokmak though. I hope we're prepared to provide them with a lot of equipment so they can exploit less fortified rear or even start hitting engineering units trying to fortify the rear as we speak.
Thank you for update, Tom. Finger crossed for ZSU. There was a huge squal line, which after Austria 🇦🇹 moved to the east causing a lot of storms on the way. I do hope it was the real reason of Shadows' silence. God bless ZSU.
Thank you for the news. But on the very day of the attack nearly at 19.00 during the attack itself it was reported that the attack was aimed at Khmelnitsky oblast, and some 2 hours later it was announced that the exact aim was Staroconstantinov. So Ukrainian authorities knew it nearly from the beginning. Concerning the probable result the reports are contradictory but Zelensky congratulated ZSU with success and so did the higher military officials.
I guess it's time for ATACAMS then...
Thanks, Tom! So, wow, from this report it seems that ZSU has "destroyed" the whole 42nd division, or at the very least made it combat ineffective. I would expect that if the last remaining MRR (291st?) was still capable for combat it would be sent as a reserve, rather than those BARS outfits. All in all, basically half of the 58th CAA, the most capable Russian formation in the South, should now be out of action? That's pretty significant news, let's hope ZSU can exploit it further.
Спасибо за работу, Том.
A question regarding small numbers of Su-24 being used to launch Storm Shadows: wouldn't it make more sense for UAF to ask NATO for Tornados, either from UK (if they have any left), Germany or Italy, rather than wait for the promised F-16? Tornados could be used to launch long range A-G missiles without any modification necessary for Sukhois, and ECR version would be much better for SEAD duties than current practice of lobbing HARMS from MiG-29 in the general direction of Russian AD systems. Sure, Tornados aren't as sexy as F-16, but they were designed for low-level attacks (exactly what we're seeing in Ukraine now), and would be able to complement or completely substitute the dwindling numbers of Su-24 available.
It takes time to train pilots and technicians on the Tornado. It is faster and cheaper to refurbish Su-24 from storage or to adapt Su-27 to carry Storm Shadow.
In order for the Tornado ECR to take advantage of its sensor suite, both for detection and jamming, it would have to fly higher than treetop level, exposing itself to Ru fighters it cannot defeat.
I heard the spokesperson of the Ukrainian airforce saying that ideally they would like 1 multi role jet in large quantities and if forced, max 2 different combat jets. So F16s is their priority for this reason. It can do SEAD/DEAD, ISR, CAP missions, etc. Then if circumstances/limited resources require a second combat jet, you have the gripen,F18, tornado, mirage 2000,etc.
Theoretically: yes. Tornados are compatible with both Storm Shadow and with SCALP-EG.
However, Tornados are even more complex to maintain, operate, and fly, than F-16 - and, AFAIK, they should be at least in as poor condition as most of F-16AMs Ukraine is likely to get.
After ZSU has done such a good job with spreading its ammo and POL depots, it will be a shame if they have concentrated all of their airpower and the attached missiles in one base. (Unless we are talking about the last SU-25)
Still can’t understand why Ukraine hasn’t been given adequate air defenses. The need was obvious from day one.
Maybe they give only enough for equal. To prevent either party to win
Several needs of Ukrainia has gone unanswered or insufficiently answered during the war. Nothing special about air defences in that respect. Which of course doesnt onvalidate your question.
Thanks for this quick update. The things are developing so swift (and confusing) that your work is refreshing.
Let’s know what about to put all the eggs in one basket... er, one AB.
Thanks for update Personally I remember that Ignat reported about that misses go to Khmelnytskyy Oblast In 2 hours before strike It means that it is a big chance that Su 24 managed to take off at least a few However it is possible that broken Storm Shadow stores could be destroyed Although there are a few possible reasons of Storm Shadow strikes absence like preparation of new massive strike(collecting information about depots and other important targets in order to hit in right moment like big attack of ZSU in order to shock enemy during few hours). It is also real storm in Robotyne and Orikhiv area during last 2 days that make missile launching more dangerous and difficult. Of course, it can be just self-soothing but now we can just wait on new messages about succesful missle strikes of Russian army
Yet another possibility: insignificant damage from the Rusian attack but Ukraine plays it as disabling. The Russians then make bold moves believing they are immune from attack.
I hope that's the real situation. :)
They would be absolute idiots if they didn't store the Storm Shadows in a cow shed a couple of km away from the hangars.
If the AFU manage to break all these new units sent to stabilize Robotyne what else does the russians have to throw at them?
When the Russians declared that the Ukrainian offensive in the south in June resulted in heavy losses in Western vehicles, nobody believed them. However, now the US news write that 20% of the Western-provided armor was lost in the first weeks of the assault.
Now, the Russians again claim that many Western vehicles were destroyed near Robotyne.
As I remember they wrote about 20 % of armor which was used on battlefield Secondly 20 % includes damaged too. Bradley and Leopards have higher recovery potential than soviet IFV and tanks. Thirdly, West already replaced all losses in Bradleys and partially in Leopards(extra 4 from Spain)
Personally, I trust Oryx more than Russians who already destroyed aviation third time, 4 time destroyed all Himarses and killed 300 000 mercenaries from Poland Of course, Ukraine lost a lot of Bradleys but during this offensive even Russians complain on destruction of artillery and SPAA (https://t.me/bulbe_de_trones/5189) that is more important for offensive than IFV and few tanks
"West already replaced all losses in Bradleys and partially in Leopards(extra 4 from Spain)"
Those are announcements. Not delivery. So no : losses have not been replaced.
The Spanish Leopards were announced during winter yet not delivered by June.
20% of used vehicles, but in first attacks was only 20% of delivery used, so it was 4-5% of all. and many can be/was repaired.
Well, I haven't seen a single video with a Marder IFV, Challenger MBT or Abrams MBT. So if it is a lot, we would have seen those in action already.
It's my impression that the Abrams hasn't been delivered to Ukraine, yet. Only Leopards and Challengers seem to have been delivered for now from MBTs?
Yes, you are right. Mixed that up
I have not seen any Strykers either, have you? Ukraine should have at least 90 of these.
Strykers were spotted in Ukraine back in april already: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1644089200390848512
Thanks Tom first part good news looking like the UAF is getting some traction in some areas , not so good with the Russian strike on the UAF airfield let hope they came get some aircraft back in the air soon, ( this is not good but for once the Russians act struck something to help themselves )
Thank You!
Assuming there is damage to PSU ability to launch cruise missile attacks.... And assuming the U.S.A. has done "nothing" in response to the most recent Russian altercation with MQ-9 drone... I wonder what prevents the USA from "leasing" some of our "inactive" F-117's (https://theaviationist.com/2023/05/22/f-117-nighthawk-stealth-jets-jber/) to replace or improve any lost capability. I would be thrilled to see the TU-95 base hit, maybe a couple of their ports, maybe Kalinigrad, for example. I don't really believe the entire "training" time issue- a skilled pilot should be able to master some significant percentage of the capability within a week or two, right? Especially with the autopilot/autonomous/remote operation capabilities of modern aircraft and drones. Stick a MQ-9 control system in the F-117 with the pilot. Yeah, I know it isn't THAT easy but given the situation and access I know I would have someone working on it.
I'm hoping you will have a future book or article on the Russian/MQ-9 episodes. I'd really like to know what the USA has done in response.
Learning to fly and fight with the F-117 should be far shorter and easier than an F-16, no need to modify it. Single mission, no radar or ecm. They just need to be good at night flying and learn to use the flir and laser targeting. The big question is if the F-117 can survive against current Ru SAMs and fighters - is it invisible enough?
I think this is something we could see once Ukraine starts sieging Crimea after the Western combat aircraft have arrived. I think once F16s are in place other such platforms will proliferate. But I dont think they will be allowed to target Russian soil.
F-117A is simply obsolete, and wouldn't be of much use in Ukraine.
The jet was designed to fly strikes with LGBs in the 1980s and 1990s: it was vulnerable already over Serbia in 1999, and would be even more vulnerable over Ukraine 30 years later.
Modern-day-strikes of that kind are delivered with weapons like Storm Shadows.
How about leasing them a B-2 out of RAF Fairford. That's a relatively short flight and a lot of payload. :)
Sorry, but that's within realms of science fiction. USA would never let anybody else operate B-2s.
+
Thanks for the update. Here's to hoping the PSU had relocated its Su-24s to some other location before the strike. Otherwise its great news they were able to move further in the Orikhiv axis. I wonder what the situation will be once the Ukrainians get past Tokmak, I doubt the Russians have enough time and resources to mine the whole of the rear once the Ukrainians get there and before the Russians retreat
Tokmak is already enough. It is the central railway hub connecting the land bridge east to west/crimea. If the russians lose it and Ukraine can disable the the kerch railway bridge they are basically fucked in the whole south.
I see. I hope Ukraine's counter offensive doesn't culminate at Tokmak though. I hope we're prepared to provide them with a lot of equipment so they can exploit less fortified rear or even start hitting engineering units trying to fortify the rear as we speak.
This year is very wet. August and September are usually dry, but October may already be muddy.