Ukraine War, 28 July 2023: Dirt & Shadows

Hello everybody!

Successful Ukrainian ground operations of the last few days have ‘thrown up a lots of dirt’, and thus it’s very hard to keep a track on what’s going on on the ground. Moreover, some of developments are better not disclosed ‘straight away’. Thus here just a few of ‘updates’ and that ‘telegraphically’…

• Klishchivka-Kurdyumivka… over the last 48 hours, and amid the collapse of their 57th and 72nd MRBs in the Klishchivka area, the Russians brought in the 4th MRB (‘Separatists’, meanwhile re-filled by Russian mobiks). Together with the 83rd VDV Brigade, this exploited a rotation of ZSU units inside Klishchivka to launch a counterattack from the north. Not to be outdone, though, the ZSU seems to have covered that rotation by ordering its 17th Tank Brigade into an attack in direction of Opytne. Result: a ‘frontal collision’, that might have cost the Russians the CO of the 4th MRB. That said, claims by the Pudding’s PRBS-machinery about ‘recovery’ of Klishchivka are nonsense.

• Alone the fact that the Russians are ‘back’ to deploying the VKS as a ‘fire-brigade’ in this area, the last 2-3 days, is ‘speaking volumes’ about the state of their ground forces. Many of air strikes (both ‘spray & pray’ and by MPK/UMPK glide bombs) were targeting the two ZSU pontoon bridges on the Siversky Donetsk-Donbas Canal, north of Kurdyumivka, though.

• The reason for the collapse of the Russian lines east of Robotyne was the destruction of the Russian 70th MRR (42nd MRD). This resulted in a breach which Ukrainians exploited to advance in southern direction. The 58th CAA 'stabilised' the situation through the re-deployment of BARS-1, BARS-3, and BARS-14, combined with elements of the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades to the Novoprokopivka area: some of these were immediately launched into a counterattack that appears to have stopped Ukrainians about 1,000m north of that village. Additional elements of same units were used to bolster the defences of the 291st MRR inside Robotyne, because this unit was also in the process of disintegration. However, the way things meanwhile look, the ZSU then didn’t really press its attack on either Robotyne nor Novoprokopivka (as, apparently, expected both by the HQ 58th CAA, and me): instead, it turned east to widen the breach through hitting the western flank of the 100th Reconnaissance Brigade, VSRF. That brought it to the western side of Vrbove.

• The reason for the collapse of the Russian lines in Staromairoske was the defeat of the 247th VDV Regiment. Last year in March, this was mauled during the 49th CAA’s ‘Race to Odesa’, and then re-built by mobiks from the Russian Paratrooper Legion. Two evenings ago, its survivors surrendered to the troops of the 35th Naval Infantry Brigade.

• ….and because the VKS was so busy in the Klishchivka area, the last few days it couldn’t help in southern Zaporizhzhya.

Finally, something based on ‘lots of deduction’, and over which there is a big question mark… and then something I guess is going to be taken as ‘bad news’ by many.

The latest big Russian missile strike on Ukraine - the one of Wednesday, 26 July - should’ve included about

• 36 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles from 8 Tu-95s,

• 4 Kalibrs from warships in the Black sea, and

• 4 Kinzhal air-launched quasi-ballistic missiles.

The PSU claimed as shot down

• 3 Kalibrs

• 33 Kh-101/Kh-555s.

However…. it seems that the mass of missiles in question were deployed to distract the PSU’s ground-based air defences from the actual target of this attack: Starokostyantyiv AB, in the Khmelnytskyy Oblast. Worst of all, and beacasue it’s outside the ‘air defence bulb’ covering Kyiv, it seems this base was actually hit by up to four Kinzhals.

Starokostyantyiv AB is the home-base of the 7th Aviation Brigade, PSU: the unit operating Su-24Ms modified to deploy Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles.

Now, yesterday, the PSU spokesperson, Yurii Ihnat, confirmed that Starokostyantyiv AB was hit, but wouldn’t reveal any details. Nobody else in Ukraine would say anything more. But, from the way everybody is refusing to comment….well, my impression is that this Russian strike did cause ‘major damage’.

If nothing elsel: there are no indications that the PSU has flown any additional Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG-strikes over the last two days.

Sure, different Russian HQs and supply depots in southern Zaporizhzhya and southern Donetsk have been hit the last two days, plus one in Shakhtarsk (east of Donetsk), the last night; but - as far as is known - all of them by M142 HIMARS and M270 MRLS’.