Today's article in UK Defence Journal: Britain estimates that 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine.
I’m really in shock about your working capacity. Kudos for that! If our people in charge may be capable to do a quarter of that, we may live in a land of unicorns (almost).
Joking aside, you’ve my greatest respect for it, most due to the amount of info you provide. Sometimes I’ve asked myself about ZSU Army Aviation, even thinking it wasn’t no more, so your remark today put these brave fellows on our point of view.
As a side note, past weeks a new training course of officers and specialist NCOs from ZSU finish here in Spain. But it seems a pitiful help for the country enduring the orc onslaught.
Some of them were veterans for the very first days of the invasion, using civilian vehicles and RPGs to harass ruZZian columns. Deeply interesting (and moving, too) histories they share. Best of luck of all of you and Slava Ukraïne!
On Russian losses, the best explanation of how their leadership and population at large view them, is quoting what Stalin said in a politbureau meeting during the famine in the 30's: "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of 1 million is a statistic"
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As for the quoted figure of 500.000 invalids declared in Russia, these are for 2023 and in excess of the invalid numbers declared in 2021. There is no data on 2022. The real question is how many of these half a million new invalids were WIA in Ukraine and how many bribed the doctor to be declared invalid in order to avoid mobilization?
They were calculating disabled persons among working age men, but the working age was increased from 60 to 65, thus the number of disabled men increased as well. Something like that.
"..And then, few weeks ago, somebody published that statistics from one of the Russian ministries quoting an increase in the number of invalids by some 500,000 over the last year or two…."
Do you have a link to this publication of the Russian ministry ?
I tried finding it online but some articles claim the 500 000 figure as a total number for the whole country, and other as an increase. Of course, since Russia now claims the Ukrainian territories as part of Russia, the statistics of those areas are probably added, for issuance of pensions and other reasons.
Just a guess, it's one reason why these numbers are exaggerated. Note that even counting KIA cannot be accurate, too. IMO the overall number reported by ZSU (466 thousands of "eliminated personel" today) is not fat from reality. But keep in mind that it's including many LNR, DNR casaulties and few foreigners, too. (So, when some other sources state lower numbers, they often count Russian citizens only.)
These numbers are "grand total" received by GenStaff from all the units through the day. Let's say, a company commander writes a report: "There was an assault, about 30 men - of them we shot 20, the other retreated." This counts as 20. However, some of these 20 could just fell down wounded, and creep back to their lines, or could be evacuated (unlikely, but...). Also, the company commander could get wrong data: for example, he gets 3 reports from platoon commanders, and 2 platoons cross-fired the same 30-men assault, so each platoon claims 10 kills, thus double-counting the casualties in the company report.
Russia had more than 15.000 killed during the first year and that’s for sure.
Wagner PMC lost 22.000 killed and 40.000 wounded by May 23rd 2023. when Bakhmut finally fell. So, before Ukrainian summer counter-offensive started, based on Russian official’s data, up to 40.000 had been killed.
From summer counteroffensive up until now, we can freely add another 10-20 thousand killed, and with the missing ones, total Russian fatalities are probably between 60 and 70 thousand people. If in general there are 3-4 wounded soldiers for one killed, Russia than has between 195 and 260 thousand (232.500) KIA, WIA and MIA, plus a couple of hundred captured (maybe there were a few thousand at certain point, but many have been exchanged).
What about Ukraine? Well, if we look at first year (2022), both Ukrainian/Western and Russian sources claim that tens of thousands of soldiers were lost… Ursula fon der Layen, for example, said on November 30th 2022. that Ukraine suffered 100.000 cassualties by that point, and the fact that her statement got deleated right away may suggest that she was right and somebody wasn’t happy about it… Furthermore, according to a Ukrainian telegram chanel Volya: “Our estimates of Ukraine’s losses are very comparable with those of the European Commission and the US Joint Staff. At the moment of publication, their numbers of 100,000 killed and injured Ukrainians [correspond to] ours of between 39,000 and 42,000 killed and between 65,000 and 71,000 injured wounded Ukrainian army servicemen”.
Meanwhile, Ukraine confirmed that by June 3rd 2022. there were 7.200 missing and 5.600 captured soldiers, together with 10.000 killed and 30.000 wounded. That means 52.800 cassualties after three months of fighting, and if that trend continued, there were more than 100.000 losses (105.600 to be more precise) by September 3rd… What’s interesting is that Russia claimed Ukrainian losses were 61.207 KIA and 49.368 injured (110.575 in total) by 21st September… so it turns out Russian and Ukrainian figures are almost the same for that period, though Russia did not include missing and captured enemy soldiers…
Whatever the case, Ukraine suffered no less than 100.000 losses - but certainly A LOT more (around 150.000) - in first year ONLY, compared to 70-80k it inflicted to Russia.
The second year of the war was a lot more bloodier, with battles of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Krinky bridgehead and many others. All these battlefields cost Ukraine tens of thousands of man, but the most important event took place in the south, during a summer counteroffensive, which saw most of Ukrainian cassulties… With all this being said, Ukraine lost no less than 300.000 man by the end of 2023.
After almost five monts of this year, which saw heavy battles and extensive use of glide bombs, their losses may exceed 350.000 people…
No, I said what I wanted to say. If you don't like it, move on. Btw I know it's hard to even think for a sec that Ukrainian casualties might be as huge as they are, let alone bigger than the Russian ones. And trust me, even this figure of 200k + Russian losses hurts me a lot, so yeah, I can imagine your grief. I once believed that the ratio of Rus vs Ukr losses is 1:8, but than I realized that's simply not true... It took me some time to comprehend that fact, but one must accept the harsh reality. The figures I've presented are not a product of my imagination or wishes but rather research I've done on this topic, and I am aware that it's very hard to tell the exact truth. But one thing is certain and I think we can all agree - both Russia AND Ukraine tend to deliberately exaggerate.
If the 200k losses are hurting you a lot, why don't you and your army go home to Russia and save everybody? Or for you it's enough the consolation that Ukrainian losses are at least double?
The thing is, for us who support Russia, Russia is defending herself, and that ofcourse comes with a price… Freedom is not free, you know?
Actually, I’m really sad that so many Ukrainians are lost, but I don’t feel the same about Azov and similar units, and especially not for foreign “freedom” fighters…
Yes, yes russia is "defending herself" by invading and destroying another country that sounds perfectly logical. There are some russians that at least acknowledge that it's just a typical land-grab and then there imbeciles that still believe in "russia defending herself".
Wtf? Who attacked Russia and when? Can you give some more details, please? I don't remember, since 1945, any attack of any kind on Russia and not even on USSR.
The garsh reality is that we dont know. But we know that the Russians dont care. We know that they have attacked in mest waves. We know they dont bother to pick up their dead. We know that being on the offensiv now and grinding through is costly. In thus situation you claim that Russian losses are lower than Ukraines? Slrry. Totally not believable. And then this comment: I know this is harsh, but that is the reality. You end up sounding like some Russian propagandist. What you are I dont know, but I know how you sound.
People make the same mistake both in the east and west… There are so many myths like “Russia doesn’t care about their soldiers… meat wave attacks… they kill their own… hundreds of thousands of dead” and so on… Indeed, there were moments when these things occurred, but that’s not the general situation, like it or not. It’s obvious that Ukrainians are behaving exactly the same as they claim about Russians: for example, at Krinky where they sent their best marines in suicide crossings of the Dnipro river, or two months ago when they got their asses kicked while crossing into Russian teritory… All this just for PR purposes, nothing else, at a cost of thousands of men who could be used at some hotspots like Avdiivka… Funny thing is that they organize such actions whenever they are desperate, whenever they start to retreat from some “insignificant, small city of 30.000 residents” (but hey, let’s ignore the fact that these places were all built as fortresses and defended by 30-50 thousand man, including the best units equipped with western tech). Last but not least, have you not seen Ukrainian soldiers killing Russian POWs at the start of the war??? Even western media talked about it! Whereas, from the Russian side I saw only one such video, and “only” one POW was executed, unlike dozens of Russians…
Ok, enough with Ukrainian myths (btw there are many more than two or three examples I’ve presented), what about Russia?
Possibly the biggest Russian myth is that whenever they lose territory, that’s a “gesture of goodwill”. That happened in three different places: Kyiv, Kharkov and Kherson.
I was stupid enough to believe in this cheap Russian propaganda back then…
Of course, these WERE big victories for Ukrainians, but they were mostly possible because there were far to little Russians to stop them, and we are talking about militias equipped with two AK magazines and a single hand grenade…
Also, there were no defenses built to at least slow down Ukrainians… You could see what happens when Ukrainians faced well well prepared Russian defenses during summer counteroffensive…
So, these were big victories for Ukraine, but they were not some “genius” operations.
Another Russian myth is that there are very few losses on their side, while Ukraine suffered 10 times heavier losses and lost more planes and tanks than it ever had… This also applies to Ukrainian propaganda.
Both sides also claim to be shooting down all missiles and drones despite video evidence suggesting otherwise…
So, as you can see, as someone who support Russia I have no problem to say that Russia is sometimes making mistakes and lying…
Sometimes, but very rarely, you Russians make mistakes, because destroying and independent country and killing thousands of civilians is no mistake for you. This is why Ukrainians are right. The only way you will understand that you are nothing but criminals is the hard way. And you better defend yourself from China, who will own you for decades, and not from Ukraine. BTW, you are supporting Russia, but I am 90% sure you live happily somewhere in the West.
Nope, I am from Serbia, a country from south eastern Europe that has close ties with Russia for last few hundred years, since our enemies were always the same (Turks, Germans, and now NATO) and we are both Slav nations, same religion…
WE KNOW what NATO is - a terrorist organization led by the US which bombed my country for 78 days straight and caussed even greater suffering and destruction among both us Serbians AND Albanians who they (NATO) “defended” by bombing Serbian civilian infrastructure, including bridges, hospitals, TV stations, markets, killing and wounding hundreds if not thousands of civilians… All this “collateral damage” was inflicted by “state of the art laser guided bombs” - not once, not twice, but dozens of times!!! The aggression was conducted WITHOUT the approval of the UN Security Council and even AGAINST NATO’s own politics, which claims that it represents a DEFENSIVE ALLIANCE, which was NOT directly attacked NOR threatened by exhausted small Serbia… But who cares? What matters is that Russia is the world’s biggest threat to peace, despite the US and it’s allies “intervening” (torturing) countries around the world… Even if Russia is the bad guy in this case, it has atleast attacked a neighbouring country, not some Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Vietnam, Afghanistan (I’m tired writting them all down, the list is just to big) located on different continent. What is the purpose of NATO existance AFTER the USSR broke up? Who did they percieve as a threat? Why do you need to spread eastwards and provoke A NUCLEAR power such as Russia? Why? One has to wonder, how is it possible that the US is supporting “good” Ukraine and simultaneously provide aid to genocidal Israel? Can’t you see that it’s all about US interests? They don’t fucking care who’s right or wrong, all they need is someone to help them achieve their satan goals… They don’t fucking care to bomb their WW2 Serbian allies, who risked their lives by saving 500 American airman over Yugoslavia (operation Halyard) shot down by Nazis… I think there is an old video about it on Youtube, so hear what Americans had to say about us… So, that’s their way of saying thank you, I guess…
Don’t get me wrong, both Serbians and Russians have their flaws (not sure if I used a correct word but I think you get it) - big flaws, but please, STOP demonizing us! We were together with this same western world I’m talking about in both world wars, isn’t that enough? Serbia alone sacrificed 1.300.000 people in WW1 (25% of total population, and 60% of male population) and more than a million in WW2!!! In both wars we were subjected to multiple genocides, executors being Croats, Bulgarians, Hungarians and Germans… I could go on forever, but I don’t want to pathetic anymore… Just, please, take a closer look at what’s going on, nothing is as it seems…
You are mixing KIA, WIA, MIA here towards the end. The Ukrainian 350 k losses, are they the combined losses or KIA losses? If they are the combined losses in Russia is likely greater. If you claim the 350 to be KIA i think you are wrong.
1. Russian BBC is more russian than BBC. Known for 'adjusting' facts to russian favor. It doesn't take any efforts to be not very persistent in counting russian losses.
2. The majority of russian soldiers are from a depressive if not wild regions, where people won't use social media for necrologies. + LDNR + prisoners + more censorship at russia. Thus, this calculation is not equivalent.
>The figures I've presented are not a product of my imagination or wishes but rather research I've done on this topic
Would you be so kind to share the sources you've found during your research?
Specifically, I seem to remember that June 2022 report that you cited, and my recollection is it said "7.200 missing, OF WHICH 5.600 likely captured" - something like that. Sorry, but the way you spun it makes me doubt the quality of your research. To be honest, it looks more like parroting Russian propaganda than research, but hopefully I'm mistaken...
I clearly said, according to EU commision, Ukrainian tg chanel who’s purpose is to collect info about losses, Russian MoD, Wagner PMC and Ukrainian official figures… there were few other sources I examined, such as Turkish newspaper Hurgada Saber, which relied on Mosad info, claiming Russia lost 18.480 killed, 44.500 wounded and 323 captured by January 14th 2023. , but they didn’t mention anything about missing ones… While I find this to be very close to real numbers for Russia, their Ukrainian numbers are quite unrealistic - 157.000 killed and so on…
Regarding 7.200 missing Ukr soldiers - no, they do not include 5.600 captured, you can check by yourself.
"Ukraine confirmed it had 10,000 killed and 30,000 wounded by the start of June 2022,[78] while 7,200 troops were missing,[79] including 5,600 captured.[80]"
Former Ukrainian MOD Oleksii Reznikov said that in March 2022 they had about 3000 Russian KIAs. These were the bodies they had actually retrieved. And when they met the Russians in Belarus of the same month(around March 3rd-7th) and offered to hand them over, the Russians declined them claiming they had only lost iirc about 100 men!! Mind you this was like a week into the war!!! The Russian losses in this was have been quite larger than reported. And for me this is further proof the official figures for Soviet losses in Afghanistan couldn't have been accurate at all.
No, the Russian MoD said, on March 3rd 2022. , their losses were 2.000 man (smth like 450-500 killed and the rest are wounded)… Later, on March 25th, they said 1.350 or so killed and 3.500 wounded. The thing is, these figures are for Russian military only, but they forgot to mention DNR/LNR losses which were much higher. So, after one month of fighting, Russian military lost no less than 1.350 killed, and together with militia’s losses, total Russian losses are probably no less than 3.000 killed.
Seems to me with the Russians on the attack the one thing the Ukrainians really need is mines and lots of them. It is the one thing that will slow the Russians when they sprint for the abandoned Ukrainian positions that the Ukrainians are also sprinting back to when the Russians pause the glide bombs and artillery.
Thank you very much.—- I have long ago stopped looking at Russian losses or wounded soldiers. Why ? Because it does not matter at all but not at all neither to the political, economic, social, religious or other Russian leaders or journalists…. nor so it seems to the population. As long as the children of the elites prosper in the West, the oligarchs carry on as usual and their offspring is thriving, no human being there seems to care how many die. Russia will not stop this war even with 50 million dead or wounded. I have seen ONE woman turn on the local leader who strolled around in one of the flooded regions in his fine clothes. This is the guy who controlled the damm the day it broke and who proudly announced that his son works in Dubai and said how difficult it is for his son and his faaaaamily to live and to work there….. the woman gave it to him proper: asked for what her husband had died for ? That nobody helped in the administration …. But there will be no reaction in Russia. None. —- Human beings do not count. More important is to count the depleted material.
How large is a Ukrainian of Russian combat brigade at full strength? US Army brigades are 3,000-5,000, but I believe it is an outlier compared to most armies in the size of formations.
My ever growing concerns about this war are the following:
1. The extent of ignorance that exists within Western societies about the depth of influence RU has within Western governments and it's domestic defense policies. What the Kremlin is doing extremely well is proving the fact that you do not have to compete directly with your perceived adversary's combined defense budget which is about 12x greater than your own. You just need to have the right politicians on your payroll at a fraction of the cost.
2. The longer this war continues, the less prepared NATO militaries are to go head-on against a more battle proven RU military. We are now entering the phase of war where RU is being taught how to fight NATO, instead of being defeated.
3. RU domestic perception management is actually quite accurate about 'winning' the war because Ukraine (and its Western allies) have failed to take back any territory from RU. I think we in the West need to stop assessing this war from a numbers perspective based on number of daily losses. Fact remains, RU is now a much more capable warfighting machine than it was 1 year ago, eventhough Ukrainian capabilities have improved much over the past year.
So, what are the solutions? There are solutions, but within the present state of telenovela political affairs in the West, what needs to be done won't be done because not much is being done to reduce RU influence in the West. The West is evolving to becoming a plot for a Monty Python movie, and this war will soon hit us hard on the nose of reality.
Time and patience are the solutions. Ukraine has the right idea unlike most "know it all" commentators.
Russia is currently learning how to fight by expending thousands of tanks and artillery system, bombs, ect. from the USSR stockpile. These lessons will be useless once Russia no longer has those stockpiles. It's that simple.
It’s always something. The sanctions are eventually going to deplete Russia’s ability to wage the war. Then one weapon system after another was going to be so effective that the west didn’t know if they could trust Ukraine with it. Now Russia is going to run out of stockpiled weapons. Just not going to happen. Russia manufacturing is on a full war footing. Russia is getting help from China, Iran, and North Korea. They are extending influence in Africa. Russian political influence in the US and Europe continues.
And yet again they aren't manufacturing the T-72 which are the primary tanks on the battlefield, they aren't manufacturing the artillery guns they are using, and they aren't manufacturing the glide bombs they're bombing Ukraine with. They also aren't manufacturing the fighters they're using, they definitely aren't manufacturing the bombers.
They are manufacturing some things but it's quite visible what a small portion those are of their combat power.
1. Agreed, and the Russian influence must not be underestimated at any point in time.
2. NATO was not prepared for this kind of war. Many Ukrainian commanders trained by NATO said in interviews that NATO lately was used with special operations with a lot of recon and a lot of kit. Something like Russia tried as well in 2022 and failed. NATO was usually more successful at that. But long wars nobody fought in the West since Vietnam, and NATO has to adapt its doctrine, too. So I am a bit afraid, but still hope they know what they do, the NATO leadership.
Thanks for the update Tom. It seems Zaluzhnyi was right about mobilization.
But in all this one thing that still surprises me is that Russia still has AD systems such as BUK in occupied Ukraine. They must have had such a large inventory of short to medium range systems. At some point these should run out. I wonder if China will sell their systems to replace these. At some point Russia wont have enough S-300/400 and BUK AD systems and will have to buy from China.
Today's article in UK Defence Journal: Britain estimates that 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estimates-450000-russian-troops-killed-or-wounded/
It is likely having in mind the continuous mobilization and contracting campaign in Russia.
I’m really in shock about your working capacity. Kudos for that! If our people in charge may be capable to do a quarter of that, we may live in a land of unicorns (almost).
Joking aside, you’ve my greatest respect for it, most due to the amount of info you provide. Sometimes I’ve asked myself about ZSU Army Aviation, even thinking it wasn’t no more, so your remark today put these brave fellows on our point of view.
As a side note, past weeks a new training course of officers and specialist NCOs from ZSU finish here in Spain. But it seems a pitiful help for the country enduring the orc onslaught.
Some of them were veterans for the very first days of the invasion, using civilian vehicles and RPGs to harass ruZZian columns. Deeply interesting (and moving, too) histories they share. Best of luck of all of you and Slava Ukraïne!
On Russian losses, the best explanation of how their leadership and population at large view them, is quoting what Stalin said in a politbureau meeting during the famine in the 30's: "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of 1 million is a statistic"
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As for the quoted figure of 500.000 invalids declared in Russia, these are for 2023 and in excess of the invalid numbers declared in 2021. There is no data on 2022. The real question is how many of these half a million new invalids were WIA in Ukraine and how many bribed the doctor to be declared invalid in order to avoid mobilization?
That was also my question. Perhaps up to a quarter could be bribes.
They were calculating disabled persons among working age men, but the working age was increased from 60 to 65, thus the number of disabled men increased as well. Something like that.
"..And then, few weeks ago, somebody published that statistics from one of the Russian ministries quoting an increase in the number of invalids by some 500,000 over the last year or two…."
Do you have a link to this publication of the Russian ministry ?
I tried finding it online but some articles claim the 500 000 figure as a total number for the whole country, and other as an increase. Of course, since Russia now claims the Ukrainian territories as part of Russia, the statistics of those areas are probably added, for issuance of pensions and other reasons.
https://meduza.io/news/2024/03/15/dannye-o-rezkom-roste-chisla-muzhchin-s-invalidnostyu-v-rf-okazalis-svyazany-s-oshibkoy-sotsialnogo-fonda
I think these 800-900 "eliminated" personnel daily reports from UA defence means KIA + (heavy, i.e. "eliminated") WIA, too.
And how can they determine who is heavy WIA?
Just a guess, it's one reason why these numbers are exaggerated. Note that even counting KIA cannot be accurate, too. IMO the overall number reported by ZSU (466 thousands of "eliminated personel" today) is not fat from reality. But keep in mind that it's including many LNR, DNR casaulties and few foreigners, too. (So, when some other sources state lower numbers, they often count Russian citizens only.)
LNR and DNR are just small enclaves and cannot supply more than 50000 soldiers total. So even if 50% of them are killed it is no more than 25000/
These numbers are "grand total" received by GenStaff from all the units through the day. Let's say, a company commander writes a report: "There was an assault, about 30 men - of them we shot 20, the other retreated." This counts as 20. However, some of these 20 could just fell down wounded, and creep back to their lines, or could be evacuated (unlikely, but...). Also, the company commander could get wrong data: for example, he gets 3 reports from platoon commanders, and 2 platoons cross-fired the same 30-men assault, so each platoon claims 10 kills, thus double-counting the casualties in the company report.
I always assume that Ukraine’s kill figures are actually total Russian casualties
This report, very meticulous I think, somewhat lifts my spirits compared to the last few days. I needed that!
Thanks, Tom, for the update. Even without the usual sarcasm it's very worth reading, or rather: much more worth reading.
Russia had more than 15.000 killed during the first year and that’s for sure.
Wagner PMC lost 22.000 killed and 40.000 wounded by May 23rd 2023. when Bakhmut finally fell. So, before Ukrainian summer counter-offensive started, based on Russian official’s data, up to 40.000 had been killed.
From summer counteroffensive up until now, we can freely add another 10-20 thousand killed, and with the missing ones, total Russian fatalities are probably between 60 and 70 thousand people. If in general there are 3-4 wounded soldiers for one killed, Russia than has between 195 and 260 thousand (232.500) KIA, WIA and MIA, plus a couple of hundred captured (maybe there were a few thousand at certain point, but many have been exchanged).
What about Ukraine? Well, if we look at first year (2022), both Ukrainian/Western and Russian sources claim that tens of thousands of soldiers were lost… Ursula fon der Layen, for example, said on November 30th 2022. that Ukraine suffered 100.000 cassualties by that point, and the fact that her statement got deleated right away may suggest that she was right and somebody wasn’t happy about it… Furthermore, according to a Ukrainian telegram chanel Volya: “Our estimates of Ukraine’s losses are very comparable with those of the European Commission and the US Joint Staff. At the moment of publication, their numbers of 100,000 killed and injured Ukrainians [correspond to] ours of between 39,000 and 42,000 killed and between 65,000 and 71,000 injured wounded Ukrainian army servicemen”.
Meanwhile, Ukraine confirmed that by June 3rd 2022. there were 7.200 missing and 5.600 captured soldiers, together with 10.000 killed and 30.000 wounded. That means 52.800 cassualties after three months of fighting, and if that trend continued, there were more than 100.000 losses (105.600 to be more precise) by September 3rd… What’s interesting is that Russia claimed Ukrainian losses were 61.207 KIA and 49.368 injured (110.575 in total) by 21st September… so it turns out Russian and Ukrainian figures are almost the same for that period, though Russia did not include missing and captured enemy soldiers…
Whatever the case, Ukraine suffered no less than 100.000 losses - but certainly A LOT more (around 150.000) - in first year ONLY, compared to 70-80k it inflicted to Russia.
The second year of the war was a lot more bloodier, with battles of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Krinky bridgehead and many others. All these battlefields cost Ukraine tens of thousands of man, but the most important event took place in the south, during a summer counteroffensive, which saw most of Ukrainian cassulties… With all this being said, Ukraine lost no less than 300.000 man by the end of 2023.
After almost five monts of this year, which saw heavy battles and extensive use of glide bombs, their losses may exceed 350.000 people…
You're mistaken. I've just read on a forum that the ratio of Russian vs. Ukrainian losses is 1:8. This is what you want to say, right?
No, I said what I wanted to say. If you don't like it, move on. Btw I know it's hard to even think for a sec that Ukrainian casualties might be as huge as they are, let alone bigger than the Russian ones. And trust me, even this figure of 200k + Russian losses hurts me a lot, so yeah, I can imagine your grief. I once believed that the ratio of Rus vs Ukr losses is 1:8, but than I realized that's simply not true... It took me some time to comprehend that fact, but one must accept the harsh reality. The figures I've presented are not a product of my imagination or wishes but rather research I've done on this topic, and I am aware that it's very hard to tell the exact truth. But one thing is certain and I think we can all agree - both Russia AND Ukraine tend to deliberately exaggerate.
If the 200k losses are hurting you a lot, why don't you and your army go home to Russia and save everybody? Or for you it's enough the consolation that Ukrainian losses are at least double?
The thing is, for us who support Russia, Russia is defending herself, and that ofcourse comes with a price… Freedom is not free, you know?
Actually, I’m really sad that so many Ukrainians are lost, but I don’t feel the same about Azov and similar units, and especially not for foreign “freedom” fighters…
Yes, yes russia is "defending herself" by invading and destroying another country that sounds perfectly logical. There are some russians that at least acknowledge that it's just a typical land-grab and then there imbeciles that still believe in "russia defending herself".
Wtf? Who attacked Russia and when? Can you give some more details, please? I don't remember, since 1945, any attack of any kind on Russia and not even on USSR.
The garsh reality is that we dont know. But we know that the Russians dont care. We know that they have attacked in mest waves. We know they dont bother to pick up their dead. We know that being on the offensiv now and grinding through is costly. In thus situation you claim that Russian losses are lower than Ukraines? Slrry. Totally not believable. And then this comment: I know this is harsh, but that is the reality. You end up sounding like some Russian propagandist. What you are I dont know, but I know how you sound.
People make the same mistake both in the east and west… There are so many myths like “Russia doesn’t care about their soldiers… meat wave attacks… they kill their own… hundreds of thousands of dead” and so on… Indeed, there were moments when these things occurred, but that’s not the general situation, like it or not. It’s obvious that Ukrainians are behaving exactly the same as they claim about Russians: for example, at Krinky where they sent their best marines in suicide crossings of the Dnipro river, or two months ago when they got their asses kicked while crossing into Russian teritory… All this just for PR purposes, nothing else, at a cost of thousands of men who could be used at some hotspots like Avdiivka… Funny thing is that they organize such actions whenever they are desperate, whenever they start to retreat from some “insignificant, small city of 30.000 residents” (but hey, let’s ignore the fact that these places were all built as fortresses and defended by 30-50 thousand man, including the best units equipped with western tech). Last but not least, have you not seen Ukrainian soldiers killing Russian POWs at the start of the war??? Even western media talked about it! Whereas, from the Russian side I saw only one such video, and “only” one POW was executed, unlike dozens of Russians…
Ok, enough with Ukrainian myths (btw there are many more than two or three examples I’ve presented), what about Russia?
Possibly the biggest Russian myth is that whenever they lose territory, that’s a “gesture of goodwill”. That happened in three different places: Kyiv, Kharkov and Kherson.
I was stupid enough to believe in this cheap Russian propaganda back then…
Of course, these WERE big victories for Ukrainians, but they were mostly possible because there were far to little Russians to stop them, and we are talking about militias equipped with two AK magazines and a single hand grenade…
Also, there were no defenses built to at least slow down Ukrainians… You could see what happens when Ukrainians faced well well prepared Russian defenses during summer counteroffensive…
So, these were big victories for Ukraine, but they were not some “genius” operations.
Another Russian myth is that there are very few losses on their side, while Ukraine suffered 10 times heavier losses and lost more planes and tanks than it ever had… This also applies to Ukrainian propaganda.
Both sides also claim to be shooting down all missiles and drones despite video evidence suggesting otherwise…
So, as you can see, as someone who support Russia I have no problem to say that Russia is sometimes making mistakes and lying…
Sometimes, but very rarely, you Russians make mistakes, because destroying and independent country and killing thousands of civilians is no mistake for you. This is why Ukrainians are right. The only way you will understand that you are nothing but criminals is the hard way. And you better defend yourself from China, who will own you for decades, and not from Ukraine. BTW, you are supporting Russia, but I am 90% sure you live happily somewhere in the West.
Nope, I am from Serbia, a country from south eastern Europe that has close ties with Russia for last few hundred years, since our enemies were always the same (Turks, Germans, and now NATO) and we are both Slav nations, same religion…
WE KNOW what NATO is - a terrorist organization led by the US which bombed my country for 78 days straight and caussed even greater suffering and destruction among both us Serbians AND Albanians who they (NATO) “defended” by bombing Serbian civilian infrastructure, including bridges, hospitals, TV stations, markets, killing and wounding hundreds if not thousands of civilians… All this “collateral damage” was inflicted by “state of the art laser guided bombs” - not once, not twice, but dozens of times!!! The aggression was conducted WITHOUT the approval of the UN Security Council and even AGAINST NATO’s own politics, which claims that it represents a DEFENSIVE ALLIANCE, which was NOT directly attacked NOR threatened by exhausted small Serbia… But who cares? What matters is that Russia is the world’s biggest threat to peace, despite the US and it’s allies “intervening” (torturing) countries around the world… Even if Russia is the bad guy in this case, it has atleast attacked a neighbouring country, not some Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Vietnam, Afghanistan (I’m tired writting them all down, the list is just to big) located on different continent. What is the purpose of NATO existance AFTER the USSR broke up? Who did they percieve as a threat? Why do you need to spread eastwards and provoke A NUCLEAR power such as Russia? Why? One has to wonder, how is it possible that the US is supporting “good” Ukraine and simultaneously provide aid to genocidal Israel? Can’t you see that it’s all about US interests? They don’t fucking care who’s right or wrong, all they need is someone to help them achieve their satan goals… They don’t fucking care to bomb their WW2 Serbian allies, who risked their lives by saving 500 American airman over Yugoslavia (operation Halyard) shot down by Nazis… I think there is an old video about it on Youtube, so hear what Americans had to say about us… So, that’s their way of saying thank you, I guess…
Don’t get me wrong, both Serbians and Russians have their flaws (not sure if I used a correct word but I think you get it) - big flaws, but please, STOP demonizing us! We were together with this same western world I’m talking about in both world wars, isn’t that enough? Serbia alone sacrificed 1.300.000 people in WW1 (25% of total population, and 60% of male population) and more than a million in WW2!!! In both wars we were subjected to multiple genocides, executors being Croats, Bulgarians, Hungarians and Germans… I could go on forever, but I don’t want to pathetic anymore… Just, please, take a closer look at what’s going on, nothing is as it seems…
You are mixing KIA, WIA, MIA here towards the end. The Ukrainian 350 k losses, are they the combined losses or KIA losses? If they are the combined losses in Russia is likely greater. If you claim the 350 to be KIA i think you are wrong.
When I say 350.000 losses that means KIA, WIA, MIA and POWs.
And what would your estimate of total Russian losses be?
Have you read my first comment?
I said Russia lost between 200-260 thousand man (KIA, WIA, MIA and POW)
The elephant in this room is Russia is believed to be adding 20,000 to 30,000 troops every month.
If they are not replacing losses then where are they?
45K of Ukrainian KIA are OSINT identified https://ualosses.org/en/soldiers/
The OSINT identification of Russian (military only?) KIA has 51K records https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng and 85K statistical estimation.
Ok
2 things to take into account:
1. Russian BBC is more russian than BBC. Known for 'adjusting' facts to russian favor. It doesn't take any efforts to be not very persistent in counting russian losses.
2. The majority of russian soldiers are from a depressive if not wild regions, where people won't use social media for necrologies. + LDNR + prisoners + more censorship at russia. Thus, this calculation is not equivalent.
>The figures I've presented are not a product of my imagination or wishes but rather research I've done on this topic
Would you be so kind to share the sources you've found during your research?
Specifically, I seem to remember that June 2022 report that you cited, and my recollection is it said "7.200 missing, OF WHICH 5.600 likely captured" - something like that. Sorry, but the way you spun it makes me doubt the quality of your research. To be honest, it looks more like parroting Russian propaganda than research, but hopefully I'm mistaken...
I clearly said, according to EU commision, Ukrainian tg chanel who’s purpose is to collect info about losses, Russian MoD, Wagner PMC and Ukrainian official figures… there were few other sources I examined, such as Turkish newspaper Hurgada Saber, which relied on Mosad info, claiming Russia lost 18.480 killed, 44.500 wounded and 323 captured by January 14th 2023. , but they didn’t mention anything about missing ones… While I find this to be very close to real numbers for Russia, their Ukrainian numbers are quite unrealistic - 157.000 killed and so on…
Regarding 7.200 missing Ukr soldiers - no, they do not include 5.600 captured, you can check by yourself.
I have checked, thank you:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
"Ukraine confirmed it had 10,000 killed and 30,000 wounded by the start of June 2022,[78] while 7,200 troops were missing,[79] including 5,600 captured.[80]"
Former Ukrainian MOD Oleksii Reznikov said that in March 2022 they had about 3000 Russian KIAs. These were the bodies they had actually retrieved. And when they met the Russians in Belarus of the same month(around March 3rd-7th) and offered to hand them over, the Russians declined them claiming they had only lost iirc about 100 men!! Mind you this was like a week into the war!!! The Russian losses in this was have been quite larger than reported. And for me this is further proof the official figures for Soviet losses in Afghanistan couldn't have been accurate at all.
No, the Russian MoD said, on March 3rd 2022. , their losses were 2.000 man (smth like 450-500 killed and the rest are wounded)… Later, on March 25th, they said 1.350 or so killed and 3.500 wounded. The thing is, these figures are for Russian military only, but they forgot to mention DNR/LNR losses which were much higher. So, after one month of fighting, Russian military lost no less than 1.350 killed, and together with militia’s losses, total Russian losses are probably no less than 3.000 killed.
Get some rubbles for spreading bullshit russian, based solely on whishes, propaganda :-)
Seems to me with the Russians on the attack the one thing the Ukrainians really need is mines and lots of them. It is the one thing that will slow the Russians when they sprint for the abandoned Ukrainian positions that the Ukrainians are also sprinting back to when the Russians pause the glide bombs and artillery.
Ukraine signed this shitty "Ottawa Treaty" in 1997 and have utilized 6 million anti-personnel mines which were received as a heritage from ussr...
Thank you very much.—- I have long ago stopped looking at Russian losses or wounded soldiers. Why ? Because it does not matter at all but not at all neither to the political, economic, social, religious or other Russian leaders or journalists…. nor so it seems to the population. As long as the children of the elites prosper in the West, the oligarchs carry on as usual and their offspring is thriving, no human being there seems to care how many die. Russia will not stop this war even with 50 million dead or wounded. I have seen ONE woman turn on the local leader who strolled around in one of the flooded regions in his fine clothes. This is the guy who controlled the damm the day it broke and who proudly announced that his son works in Dubai and said how difficult it is for his son and his faaaaamily to live and to work there….. the woman gave it to him proper: asked for what her husband had died for ? That nobody helped in the administration …. But there will be no reaction in Russia. None. —- Human beings do not count. More important is to count the depleted material.
How large is a Ukrainian of Russian combat brigade at full strength? US Army brigades are 3,000-5,000, but I believe it is an outlier compared to most armies in the size of formations.
The majority of ZSU's brigades are smaller. Few are larger (than 3,000-5,000).
My ever growing concerns about this war are the following:
1. The extent of ignorance that exists within Western societies about the depth of influence RU has within Western governments and it's domestic defense policies. What the Kremlin is doing extremely well is proving the fact that you do not have to compete directly with your perceived adversary's combined defense budget which is about 12x greater than your own. You just need to have the right politicians on your payroll at a fraction of the cost.
2. The longer this war continues, the less prepared NATO militaries are to go head-on against a more battle proven RU military. We are now entering the phase of war where RU is being taught how to fight NATO, instead of being defeated.
3. RU domestic perception management is actually quite accurate about 'winning' the war because Ukraine (and its Western allies) have failed to take back any territory from RU. I think we in the West need to stop assessing this war from a numbers perspective based on number of daily losses. Fact remains, RU is now a much more capable warfighting machine than it was 1 year ago, eventhough Ukrainian capabilities have improved much over the past year.
So, what are the solutions? There are solutions, but within the present state of telenovela political affairs in the West, what needs to be done won't be done because not much is being done to reduce RU influence in the West. The West is evolving to becoming a plot for a Monty Python movie, and this war will soon hit us hard on the nose of reality.
Time and patience are the solutions. Ukraine has the right idea unlike most "know it all" commentators.
Russia is currently learning how to fight by expending thousands of tanks and artillery system, bombs, ect. from the USSR stockpile. These lessons will be useless once Russia no longer has those stockpiles. It's that simple.
Please let us know what is this right idea?
It’s always something. The sanctions are eventually going to deplete Russia’s ability to wage the war. Then one weapon system after another was going to be so effective that the west didn’t know if they could trust Ukraine with it. Now Russia is going to run out of stockpiled weapons. Just not going to happen. Russia manufacturing is on a full war footing. Russia is getting help from China, Iran, and North Korea. They are extending influence in Africa. Russian political influence in the US and Europe continues.
And yet again they aren't manufacturing the T-72 which are the primary tanks on the battlefield, they aren't manufacturing the artillery guns they are using, and they aren't manufacturing the glide bombs they're bombing Ukraine with. They also aren't manufacturing the fighters they're using, they definitely aren't manufacturing the bombers.
They are manufacturing some things but it's quite visible what a small portion those are of their combat power.
1. Agreed, and the Russian influence must not be underestimated at any point in time.
2. NATO was not prepared for this kind of war. Many Ukrainian commanders trained by NATO said in interviews that NATO lately was used with special operations with a lot of recon and a lot of kit. Something like Russia tried as well in 2022 and failed. NATO was usually more successful at that. But long wars nobody fought in the West since Vietnam, and NATO has to adapt its doctrine, too. So I am a bit afraid, but still hope they know what they do, the NATO leadership.
3. Ukraine has recovered Harkiv and Kherson.
Ukraine was able to free the territory exceeding some European countries. But you evidently did not notice it.
Regarding point 1. i think Europe in general is much more aware of the level of Russian influence. I am not saying enough, only more aware.
Regarding point 2, well they are certainly learning but will their tricks Work against a NATO with air superiority? They might of course.
Russian airplane destroyed on Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Kushchyovskaya air base: https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1784582551736033568
This report is at last more optimistic than the previous one. Many thanks for your work and for your help.
Thanks for the update Tom. It seems Zaluzhnyi was right about mobilization.
But in all this one thing that still surprises me is that Russia still has AD systems such as BUK in occupied Ukraine. They must have had such a large inventory of short to medium range systems. At some point these should run out. I wonder if China will sell their systems to replace these. At some point Russia wont have enough S-300/400 and BUK AD systems and will have to buy from China.