That issue with China restricting drone parts delivery to UA is counterexample for those who are saying "China is neutral, they are just making money, ...". Nay, more troubles Russia has on the battlefield, more support from China it may expect.
I.e. problem is, that USA, EU has provided enough support to defeat Russia merely. They have to start understand that UA has to win over Russia supported by NK, Iran and China, too.
You are still not seeing the difference between passive exports and actually using the national budget to produce and deliver weapons for free to a different country.
By the same logic, you should include Pakistan and Egypt as major supporters of Ukraine since they actually sell artillery shells to NATO countries who then deliver it to Ukraine. But for "reasons" you wont. Nor will anybody else.
Curious isn't it ? And you see, this is one of the great danger cause by the West approach to publicly declare random countries as ennemies or rivals on a whim and racial bigotry. You cant expect all countries to make it easy for the West when the same West declare them as ennemy to submit like the US is doing constantly toward China.
And this is a great mistake Zelensky made when he went full retarted Westernist. He made Ukraine a pawn into a larger great power rivalry. Thinking Ukrainians would get absolute support just like Israel because they would be "one of us". Where the "us" means white people. He even fully sided with Israel last year which does speak volumes about his politic skills and latent bigotry.
Now Ukraine has the worst of both world. Lots of countries have a bad opinion toward Ukraine due to what the West as a whole do rather than Ukraine individually. But at the same time Ukraine does not get the full West support because in West European capitals and Washington DC , it is closer to KSA, Iraq and the now dead Kabul bubble than us. It is mostly a public money scam.
Why are You complaining Tom? Srveral industries are working because the NATO aproach to permanent war! And now that credibility and deterrence are gone, it's only a Master of tome that more Wars erupt! More profit to sustain the defense sector!
Oh, that issue about ukranians dying to keep the banks earning money...
Thanks tom. Is this uav parts blocked just for UA or for whole world? If not cannot it be bought via 3rd country? Yes expensive and takes some time but blocked for whole world will be expensive also for china
That s bad that it can take some months, but UA can use 30+country not just some as russia so it will be not so visible. Yes China can reduce selling of these components, but if it will be done to massive it can force some companies to stop buying things from china and searching and producing them in other countries. And these things are already doing. Apple is starting produce in india and there are more companies which don't want to be dependent on china so each such steps can china cost much more as some non selled uav parts. Once you are unreliable than... for example Gazprom will never ever deliver 170milion gas to europe, will be very very happy with 100 after war.
If I remember it right, China has restricted export of drones last year already, but Ukraine got them mostly via Poland or other EU countries since then. E.g. see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67078089
Einer der größten Mafia-Kartelle mit stattlicher Unterstützung ist auch der in Deutschland weitverbreitete Rundfunkbeitrag (ich nenne das Schutzgeld). Jeder der in einer Wohnung lebt, muss das Schutzgeld bezahlen. Sollte es jemand wagen, dieses Schutzgeld nicht zahlen, wird ein Schläger geschickt der das Eigentum im Wert des Schutzgeldes plus Straffe entwendet. Wenn sich wer von dem Schutzgeld befreien möchte, muss halt draußen wohnen.
Wenn es bei dem Schutz etwas brauchbares gäbe, könnte das noch erträglich sein. Leider ist die Leistung der GEZ-Mafia einfach nur noch schlecht.
Und wenn schon solche Kartelle in einer Demokratie durchgesetzt werden, wundere ich mich nicht, dass andere genauso gerne an solchen Modellen das Geld verdienen wollen.
In the UK it remains a criminal offence to not pay the TV licensing fee (includes the radio). For 10 years now, there have been multiple consultations on decriminsalising this. We are in the middle of another consultation, because the two before weren't consulting enough. Also, the same BBC, that the money goes to, recently published the now infamous map of floods, where almost everything on it was wrong. There is no amount of money that an idiot couldn't waste.
I’ve been wondering for ages about the mix/ratio of drone shootdowns between guns and missiles (SAM or AAM). I reckon I’m not the only one looking at this around the world, and imagine many military commanders are punching numbers into their ‘big button calculators’ to work out numbers and costs. Do we know if the Gepard are still fully operational and supplied with ammunition? And are they playing a big part? The demonstration of low cost but effective drones swamping high cost SAM systems in Ukraine is ‘interesting’! Western SAM sophistication to take down limited number high value enemy assets has been pretty well the doctrine for generations. This asymmetric war is………..enlightening. The market for low cost, high volume, old style bullets, defending against low cost threats is possibly a growth opportunity - at last until low cost, effective laser/energy weapons are available in high volumes! Which won’t be tomorrow!
you won't find the precise data on this, but I assume that most of the shakheeds are intercepted with "low-cost" means: 7.62/12.7 cal, Gepards and since recently, FPV-drones. I expect that in a few months FPV will be used where stingers are used now, partially because of the lack of the latter.
Gepards are in service and effective. Rheinmetall reestablished a production line for its ammo. To a small degree, it has been augmented by Skynex. In a bigger effort, Australia is in the process of shipping 160 Slingers,
I was under the illusion that the ZSU had enough sense not to trust Telegram and were using other software, given the multiple instances of information leaking from secret channels. It's insane that they believe the Russians just left Durov alone without getting what they wanted, and that even the military is using it extensively. They tried to kill a random figure like Navalny, yet they're not going after the main messaging tool? That's crazy naivety
Because, mate, we've all grown lazy, the last 30 years and elected the wrong people to power.
I've got an opportunity to 'correct' this in two days. Not sure at least a majority of electoral body in this country (Austria) might do the same (at least the pools say it's not), but, as they say: hope dies the last. If not in two days, then at least in five years (provided we do not all get flooded by another environmental catastrophe, because the majority forgot to engage their brains before putting that damn x in the right spot).
Therefore, I hope you and your compatriots might pay more attention about whom are they going to elect the next time, too.
We elected the only people on offer and those were party apparatchiks. Democrat = Republican = Labor = Conservatives = Australian ALP = Australian Liberals = German CDU = German SPD = etc etc.
There is no differing political ideologies on the west anymore.
It is all neoliberal with a smattering of welfare state to keep the plebs from revolting.
Sometime from 1970s on all mainstream parties in west merged and adopted same ideological and thus policy frameworks.
And as there are no more points of difference it doesn't matter who is elected as outcomes are the same.
It all an illusion of democracy and choice whilst real power are the oligarchs and vested interests.
Let's imagine a beautiful world where NATO does everything it should, in the required amount and on time.
How exactly would that change anything in the war at the strategic level? UA pilots are not suddenly going to know how to achieve air superiority and perform CAS. UA commanders won't suddenly level up, as if in a video game, and be able to fight with entire brigades. They won't magically create divisions and be able to coordinate multiple brigades. Syrskyi won't suddenly stop micromanaging and circumventing the official hierarchy. Zelenskyi and Yermak won't suddenly stop being stupid, corrupt, useless hacks.
UA does not have the organisation, honesty and discipline, to win the war on the battlefield. Regardless of how much equipment they get. What exactly is the argument for increasing the material support, except that it's "the right thing to do"?
What Ukraine really needs is a sort of Marshal Plan: the Marshal Plan became possible because it was a sound plan, created by people with not only plentiful expertise, but also sincere intentions to improve the well-being and the life of millions. And because the countries receiving aid were clever enough to admit certain things. As a consequence, their governments have had to give up some of their sovereignty, but at least every farmer that used to have 'donkey' in 1939, or 1941, has received a donkey in 1950 again.
Means... in this case, the GenStab-U would have to admit it's screwing up, and has to refocus on its actual job: that of re-writing the doctrine and thus the training, strategy, and tactics of the entire ZSU. Similarly, NATO would have to admit it's screwing up, and needs coordinated strategy and an all-out effort to support Ukraine, not just ever more of 'too little, too late, and obsolete'.
Above all, they all - whether US presidents or European chancellors, plus all of their heroic generals, plus entire armies of their highly-paid advisors - would have to become accountable. Whoever is screwing up, corrupt, incompetent: let him/her pay for that.
That would then, between others, result in such 'things' like:
- GenStab-U to shut up and write its new doctrine, while ZSU ground forces would have to appoing commanders proven as sincere and skilled;
- NATO would have to focus on investing into powering up its industry (I do not even care any more if in USA or the EU), and stuffing Ukraine full with arms and money;
- additionally, NATO would have to invest into Ukrainian defence sector, so this can manufacture more (which it could, but Kyive is lacking money to pay it).
The aim would be to have better commanded/led ZSU brigades, better equipped with NATO and own armament, and better supplied with beans, bullets, and gas.
....alone one of these three factors would - already now, without the other two - be enough to stop the Russian advances.
But, as the things are, people in charge simply know better, and thus, there we go on and on and on into another endless war: therefore, everybody is continuing to decrease taxes for the super-rich, while explaining the governments have no money to afford ideas of this kind...
Yes, if these things happened, and all of them would have to happen for this to work, then absolutely Ukraine would win this war. The ZSU would liberate all of the UA territory and take Kursk, until the peace treaty is signed. Unfortunately, I cannot see any of the bullet points happening, let alone all of them. Do you remember the leaked US document demanding reforms and the timescales, sent to Zelenskyi? Has UA satisfied any of those demands? Even a single one? I am quite honestly surprised, that any US representative is speaking with the UA government at all.
On a side note, I woud like to point out, that there is one subtle, yet crucial aspect of the Marshall plan, that allowed it work. West Germany was not a sovereign state at the time. The UK and France were sovereign states, but in reality had no say in any of this. I am not at all suggesting they didn't want to participate, but to say that the relationship was not equal, is a gross understatement. If the US said they wanted something, they got it, the rest was just theatre.
Of course nothing of this kind has happened. Indeed, meanwhile even the USAF does not dare asking the PSU about the reasons for that F-16-loss. Because they know the PSU doesn't like the reasons and is thus not interested in talking about them.
BTW, the Marshal Plan was originally envisaged as aid for Greece and Turkey, to prevent either from 'getting overrun by Communism'.
I didn't know that about the Marshall Plan, thanks for the interesting fact!
I would love to have been a fly on the wall when NATO officers realised that the PSU shot down their own F-16 in one of, if not the, first mission it flew. Are there enough mullahs on the planet for that face palm?
Everyone has friendly fire incidents. It's also utterly shameful to have it happen like that, the very first moment they fly. The subsequent cover up, creates utterly terrible optics.
I expect you don't trust the claim that the F-16 hit debris?
It sounds sadly plausible to me, having done that enough in flight simulators as a kid. But tough case to prove without revealing info about how F-16s are being employed.
An honest question. How do you hit a debris, especially from a shahed drone, such that it kills you instantly, without giving you any opportunity to eject?
Physics. High speed impact of a chunk of debris hitting the cockpit knocks the pilot unconscious. Rate of closure in a head-on intercept is very fast, the target is highly explosive, and debris falls, so a jet entering a diving turn at just the wrong moment can hit the field.
I've literally had this happen in civilian-grade flight sims. Real world is always more random than the simulation. To me, it's as likely as a Patriot locking on, the pilot not being aware despite having a threat warning receiver, then being fatally struck with no chance to eject.
Regarding the Marshal Plan, we can see that Greece and Turkey were not overrun by communism. Neither were the other countries that in the end recieved support. And I think it was offered to the East Block as well, which rejected it. It is still remembered in many European countries. Dollar for dollar it must have been one of the most efficient use of money to create lasting alliances.
The USSR rejected it, on behalf of everyone in the Warsaw Pact. No capitalist money allowed, only communism. The Marshall Plan will forever be one of the most successful foreign policies any government has ever implemented.
Actually, USA and USSR were in the process of negotiating the supply of the Marshal Plan to the Soviet Union - in exchange for 10,000-15,000 US POWs 'liberated' by the Soviets from Nazi Germany's POW-camps, but hijacked to the USSR and never returned to the USA.
....but then North Korea invaded South Korea, and these negotiations were cancelled.
Is one of very few, but extremely shameful episodes in the US-related history of the Second World War.
> Do you remember the leaked US document demanding reforms and the timescales, sent to Zelenskyi? Has UA satisfied any of those demands? Even a single one? I am quite honestly surprised, that any US representative is speaking with the UA government at all.
I don't get your point here. The U.S. demanded Ukraine institute reforms, or we would cut off all ties? We still communicate with Russia, even though they are a mafia-style dictatorship.
Russia isn't receiving hundreds of billions of dollars from the US tax payer. You seem to believe that countries give each other money as charity, with no strings attached. Unless you realise that's not how it works, you will remain baffled by the events unfolding.
Russia is a common enemy. It's like France aiding the American colonies against Great Britain during the Revolutionary War.
The U.S. military was essentially purpose built to destroy Russian air assets and armor. Ukraine is doing that right now. They are performing a service for us and for the world.
They are receiving support, so what's your point? No, they are not performing any service, they are fighting only for themselves, for their own survival. Exactly as it should be. It just so happens that their agenda overlaps with ours, nothing more, nothing less. Stop this poetic bullshit.
That is just not true. There was never a moment in time when Ukraine satisfied any conditions of joining NATO, regardless of the politics. Ukraine wasn't even a democracy in 2008 and it sure isn't obvious it will be one after this war.
go kuddle yourself. In 2008 we had a pretty democratic pro-western government ranked way higher in the democracy index than Montenegro, for example. Failure to respond to Ukraine's plea contributed to Yanukovich rise to power in 2010.
pro-russian id!ots like you should read wikipedia before making statements
I will hazard to say that, given the circumstances, you are far more likely to be kuddled than me. You are clearly suffering from severe brain damage, please seek medical attention.
I have lived for longer than the entire history of Ukrainian statehood. If you think that an election sandwiched between dictatorships is enough to be a democracy, then you definitely neither were nor are a democratic country. You've wasted 33 years and yet you blame others for it. Typical homo sovieticus.
Maybe it’s your dementia talking since you are that old, but if you knew a thing or two about Ukraine, you’d not use cliche’s like “wasted 33 years“. Ukraine is a success story by any measure, given it’s history. Luckily, you are old enough to die of natural causes, no point wasting time on you.
You stupid, obnoxious, low standards asshole. 1992-2021 Ukraine has achieved a cumulative real growth of -28% (IMF). A similar size Poland +328%. If that is a success story, then what the hell is a failure. Born almost the poorest in Europe and die the poorest. I hope there are books on this economic miracle.
This index is rubbish. However, if you really want to use it, then Ukraine has been labelled a hybrid regime at least since 2015. It scores even below Mexico, where the government doesn't even control half the country's territory and 60 candidates were assassinated during the 2024 electoral campaign alone.
NATO were training Ukraine since 2014, focusing on special forces. First you have to set the right culture and standards at the elite level, before you can move lower. Also, this is complete revisionism. The mass rearmament of Ukraine in 2014 was never even remotely on the table. It wasn't a decision to be made in the first place. You may as well claim that the "stupid" Allies should've killed Hitler in 1921 when he became the leader of the Nazi party.
Yes, the US, Germany and France largely ignored, but not completely, the issue because nobody cares about a non-democratic country, whose half the army committed treason and switched sides.
Ukraine. Was. Not. A. Democratic. Country. In. 2014. If you want to argue that the world is flat, then by all means feel free to do this, but please leave me out of it. Beggars belief that there are people thinking that a revolution and an election is all that is required to be a democratic state. Russia must have been a model democracy for you when they held elections in 1991.
I posted in another comment "The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Index of Democracy 2008", where they rated Ukraine as a "flawed democracy" and Russia as a "hybrid regime".
According to your logic, Ukraine has not been a democracy since at least 2015. In fact, it was labelled a hybrid regime in 2012. A schrodinger's democracy.
> UA pilots are not suddenly going to know how to achieve air superiority and perform CAS. UA commanders won't suddenly level up, as if in a video game, and be able to fight with entire brigades. They won't magically create divisions and be able to coordinate multiple brigades. Syrskyi won't suddenly stop micromanaging and circumventing the official hierarchy. Zelenskyi and Yermak won't suddenly stop being stupid, corrupt, useless hacks.
This is some sort of logical fallacy, which appears to be the reverse of the "no silver bullet" fallacy. You're arguing that only a silver bullet is worth using. We don't have any silver bullets, so we should do nothing. It reflects black and white thinking.
It's similar to the Biden administration's argument that permitting Ukraine to use U.S. weapons systems to conduct deep strikes "would not be a game changer". Whether or not something is a game changer is not the criteria we should be using. The criteria we should be using is the value/risk proposition of doing vs. not doing.
Wars are not won or lost on a tactical or operational level. The value is counted in $, £ and € and it's not UA who are paying. When somebody is asking for hundreds of billions of dollars, their proposition is more convincing if they can prove they won't simply waste it all away.
Also, the history of militaries in wartime suggests that the Ukrainian military would learn, adapt, and evolve over time. Your view is that they are a static organization, incapable of learning and utilizing unfamiliar concepts or technologies. This is obviously not the case. We have seen with our own eyes the significant advances Ukraine has made in its military since the start of this war.
I am talking about the institutional organisation and culture, you are talking about user manuals. The ZSU absolutely is a static organisation, incapable of learning. They are constantly proving this. If you don't believe me, then believe Tom who has been writing about this for quite a while now.
OK, I'm all ears. What development and improvement has the ZSU made at the operational and strategic level? I can only name one, the capability of striking static infrastructure deep in the Russian territory.
Dear Tom, let's say my gut feeling, is telling me that more and more of those are shot down using small arms, Gepards, Skynex and the sorts. And same feeling tells me that routes somehow are less variable these days, then before. Maybe no time to adjust with daily activity. Maybe 30-40% is true, maybe not. Depends on the day.
14 hrs ago·edited 13 hrs agoLiked by Sarcastosaurus
Zelensky shows his plan to Scholz, to Biden, to anybody else. It's perfect. The Ukrainian people and I are voters and elected Zelensky. Oh! It's a trifling thing. You don't mind! Zelensky thinks that we are not worthy to be shown us his plan.
P.s. Perhaps it would be interesting to you, Tom. Some details of how the Ukrainian air defence worked in July 2022. It's the details about the missile attack on Kanatove airfield. From 18:50 to 20:40 https://youtu.be/vGlJ4togc5g?si=f_N-ef42HUgqkuLo&t=1180 It's a well-known scandal about Roman Chervinsky.
Впевнений, що питання не в промисловості по виробництву дронів. А в тому що Путін змінив ядерну доктрину. І Зеленський взяв паузу, щоб оцінити можливі наслідки таких ударів...
I don’t think Zelensky could pull off Netanyahu’s insolence. First, it takes a major league asshole, which I don’t think Zelensky is. Second, Biden’s long support for Israel and Israel’s strong support in the U.S. make the situation unique.
Thanks for the update. Including the political analysis. Yes, Europe and others should have provided air defense. Still, today it is useful to support the rebuilding of Ukrainian infrastructure. But more air defense would of course be valuable too.
That issue with China restricting drone parts delivery to UA is counterexample for those who are saying "China is neutral, they are just making money, ...". Nay, more troubles Russia has on the battlefield, more support from China it may expect.
I.e. problem is, that USA, EU has provided enough support to defeat Russia merely. They have to start understand that UA has to win over Russia supported by NK, Iran and China, too.
You are still not seeing the difference between passive exports and actually using the national budget to produce and deliver weapons for free to a different country.
By the same logic, you should include Pakistan and Egypt as major supporters of Ukraine since they actually sell artillery shells to NATO countries who then deliver it to Ukraine. But for "reasons" you wont. Nor will anybody else.
Curious isn't it ? And you see, this is one of the great danger cause by the West approach to publicly declare random countries as ennemies or rivals on a whim and racial bigotry. You cant expect all countries to make it easy for the West when the same West declare them as ennemy to submit like the US is doing constantly toward China.
And this is a great mistake Zelensky made when he went full retarted Westernist. He made Ukraine a pawn into a larger great power rivalry. Thinking Ukrainians would get absolute support just like Israel because they would be "one of us". Where the "us" means white people. He even fully sided with Israel last year which does speak volumes about his politic skills and latent bigotry.
Now Ukraine has the worst of both world. Lots of countries have a bad opinion toward Ukraine due to what the West as a whole do rather than Ukraine individually. But at the same time Ukraine does not get the full West support because in West European capitals and Washington DC , it is closer to KSA, Iraq and the now dead Kabul bubble than us. It is mostly a public money scam.
Why are You complaining Tom? Srveral industries are working because the NATO aproach to permanent war! And now that credibility and deterrence are gone, it's only a Master of tome that more Wars erupt! More profit to sustain the defense sector!
Oh, that issue about ukranians dying to keep the banks earning money...
You're right Tom...that SAM photo did distract me!
But yeah, you're right 🤷🏼♂️. Anything for a quick buck. Or in this case lots of bucks over a long period of time regardless of human lose.
Thanks tom. Is this uav parts blocked just for UA or for whole world? If not cannot it be bought via 3rd country? Yes expensive and takes some time but blocked for whole world will be expensive also for china
Well, I do think that... ho-hum... Kyrgyzstan's UAV-sector all of a sudden importing shiploads of UAV-parts from China would be a sound solution...
....though nothing one can depend upon for longer than few months.
That s bad that it can take some months, but UA can use 30+country not just some as russia so it will be not so visible. Yes China can reduce selling of these components, but if it will be done to massive it can force some companies to stop buying things from china and searching and producing them in other countries. And these things are already doing. Apple is starting produce in india and there are more companies which don't want to be dependent on china so each such steps can china cost much more as some non selled uav parts. Once you are unreliable than... for example Gazprom will never ever deliver 170milion gas to europe, will be very very happy with 100 after war.
If I remember it right, China has restricted export of drones last year already, but Ukraine got them mostly via Poland or other EU countries since then. E.g. see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67078089
Einer der größten Mafia-Kartelle mit stattlicher Unterstützung ist auch der in Deutschland weitverbreitete Rundfunkbeitrag (ich nenne das Schutzgeld). Jeder der in einer Wohnung lebt, muss das Schutzgeld bezahlen. Sollte es jemand wagen, dieses Schutzgeld nicht zahlen, wird ein Schläger geschickt der das Eigentum im Wert des Schutzgeldes plus Straffe entwendet. Wenn sich wer von dem Schutzgeld befreien möchte, muss halt draußen wohnen.
Wenn es bei dem Schutz etwas brauchbares gäbe, könnte das noch erträglich sein. Leider ist die Leistung der GEZ-Mafia einfach nur noch schlecht.
Und wenn schon solche Kartelle in einer Demokratie durchgesetzt werden, wundere ich mich nicht, dass andere genauso gerne an solchen Modellen das Geld verdienen wollen.
In the UK it remains a criminal offence to not pay the TV licensing fee (includes the radio). For 10 years now, there have been multiple consultations on decriminsalising this. We are in the middle of another consultation, because the two before weren't consulting enough. Also, the same BBC, that the money goes to, recently published the now infamous map of floods, where almost everything on it was wrong. There is no amount of money that an idiot couldn't waste.
It is so bitter.
I’ve been wondering for ages about the mix/ratio of drone shootdowns between guns and missiles (SAM or AAM). I reckon I’m not the only one looking at this around the world, and imagine many military commanders are punching numbers into their ‘big button calculators’ to work out numbers and costs. Do we know if the Gepard are still fully operational and supplied with ammunition? And are they playing a big part? The demonstration of low cost but effective drones swamping high cost SAM systems in Ukraine is ‘interesting’! Western SAM sophistication to take down limited number high value enemy assets has been pretty well the doctrine for generations. This asymmetric war is………..enlightening. The market for low cost, high volume, old style bullets, defending against low cost threats is possibly a growth opportunity - at last until low cost, effective laser/energy weapons are available in high volumes! Which won’t be tomorrow!
you won't find the precise data on this, but I assume that most of the shakheeds are intercepted with "low-cost" means: 7.62/12.7 cal, Gepards and since recently, FPV-drones. I expect that in a few months FPV will be used where stingers are used now, partially because of the lack of the latter.
Gepards are in service and effective. Rheinmetall reestablished a production line for its ammo. To a small degree, it has been augmented by Skynex. In a bigger effort, Australia is in the process of shipping 160 Slingers,
I was under the illusion that the ZSU had enough sense not to trust Telegram and were using other software, given the multiple instances of information leaking from secret channels. It's insane that they believe the Russians just left Durov alone without getting what they wanted, and that even the military is using it extensively. They tried to kill a random figure like Navalny, yet they're not going after the main messaging tool? That's crazy naivety
So I have only been reading this blog since a few weeks. Was it always so depressing?
Because, mate, we've all grown lazy, the last 30 years and elected the wrong people to power.
I've got an opportunity to 'correct' this in two days. Not sure at least a majority of electoral body in this country (Austria) might do the same (at least the pools say it's not), but, as they say: hope dies the last. If not in two days, then at least in five years (provided we do not all get flooded by another environmental catastrophe, because the majority forgot to engage their brains before putting that damn x in the right spot).
Therefore, I hope you and your compatriots might pay more attention about whom are they going to elect the next time, too.
We elected the only people on offer and those were party apparatchiks. Democrat = Republican = Labor = Conservatives = Australian ALP = Australian Liberals = German CDU = German SPD = etc etc.
There is no differing political ideologies on the west anymore.
It is all neoliberal with a smattering of welfare state to keep the plebs from revolting.
Sometime from 1970s on all mainstream parties in west merged and adopted same ideological and thus policy frameworks.
And as there are no more points of difference it doesn't matter who is elected as outcomes are the same.
It all an illusion of democracy and choice whilst real power are the oligarchs and vested interests.
Let's imagine a beautiful world where NATO does everything it should, in the required amount and on time.
How exactly would that change anything in the war at the strategic level? UA pilots are not suddenly going to know how to achieve air superiority and perform CAS. UA commanders won't suddenly level up, as if in a video game, and be able to fight with entire brigades. They won't magically create divisions and be able to coordinate multiple brigades. Syrskyi won't suddenly stop micromanaging and circumventing the official hierarchy. Zelenskyi and Yermak won't suddenly stop being stupid, corrupt, useless hacks.
UA does not have the organisation, honesty and discipline, to win the war on the battlefield. Regardless of how much equipment they get. What exactly is the argument for increasing the material support, except that it's "the right thing to do"?
What Ukraine really needs is a sort of Marshal Plan: the Marshal Plan became possible because it was a sound plan, created by people with not only plentiful expertise, but also sincere intentions to improve the well-being and the life of millions. And because the countries receiving aid were clever enough to admit certain things. As a consequence, their governments have had to give up some of their sovereignty, but at least every farmer that used to have 'donkey' in 1939, or 1941, has received a donkey in 1950 again.
Means... in this case, the GenStab-U would have to admit it's screwing up, and has to refocus on its actual job: that of re-writing the doctrine and thus the training, strategy, and tactics of the entire ZSU. Similarly, NATO would have to admit it's screwing up, and needs coordinated strategy and an all-out effort to support Ukraine, not just ever more of 'too little, too late, and obsolete'.
Above all, they all - whether US presidents or European chancellors, plus all of their heroic generals, plus entire armies of their highly-paid advisors - would have to become accountable. Whoever is screwing up, corrupt, incompetent: let him/her pay for that.
That would then, between others, result in such 'things' like:
- GenStab-U to shut up and write its new doctrine, while ZSU ground forces would have to appoing commanders proven as sincere and skilled;
- NATO would have to focus on investing into powering up its industry (I do not even care any more if in USA or the EU), and stuffing Ukraine full with arms and money;
- additionally, NATO would have to invest into Ukrainian defence sector, so this can manufacture more (which it could, but Kyive is lacking money to pay it).
The aim would be to have better commanded/led ZSU brigades, better equipped with NATO and own armament, and better supplied with beans, bullets, and gas.
....alone one of these three factors would - already now, without the other two - be enough to stop the Russian advances.
But, as the things are, people in charge simply know better, and thus, there we go on and on and on into another endless war: therefore, everybody is continuing to decrease taxes for the super-rich, while explaining the governments have no money to afford ideas of this kind...
Yes, if these things happened, and all of them would have to happen for this to work, then absolutely Ukraine would win this war. The ZSU would liberate all of the UA territory and take Kursk, until the peace treaty is signed. Unfortunately, I cannot see any of the bullet points happening, let alone all of them. Do you remember the leaked US document demanding reforms and the timescales, sent to Zelenskyi? Has UA satisfied any of those demands? Even a single one? I am quite honestly surprised, that any US representative is speaking with the UA government at all.
On a side note, I woud like to point out, that there is one subtle, yet crucial aspect of the Marshall plan, that allowed it work. West Germany was not a sovereign state at the time. The UK and France were sovereign states, but in reality had no say in any of this. I am not at all suggesting they didn't want to participate, but to say that the relationship was not equal, is a gross understatement. If the US said they wanted something, they got it, the rest was just theatre.
Of course nothing of this kind has happened. Indeed, meanwhile even the USAF does not dare asking the PSU about the reasons for that F-16-loss. Because they know the PSU doesn't like the reasons and is thus not interested in talking about them.
BTW, the Marshal Plan was originally envisaged as aid for Greece and Turkey, to prevent either from 'getting overrun by Communism'.
I didn't know that about the Marshall Plan, thanks for the interesting fact!
I would love to have been a fly on the wall when NATO officers realised that the PSU shot down their own F-16 in one of, if not the, first mission it flew. Are there enough mullahs on the planet for that face palm?
Good thing Russia never had any friendly fire accidents.
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-lack-situational-awareness-driving-friendly-fire-incidentsuk-1887637
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/21/7461916/
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-su35-fighter-jet-downed-own-air-defense-friendly-fire-zaporizhzhia-tokmak-1830844
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoots-down-own-jet-second-time-su-35-1832781
Everyone has friendly fire incidents. It's also utterly shameful to have it happen like that, the very first moment they fly. The subsequent cover up, creates utterly terrible optics.
I expect you don't trust the claim that the F-16 hit debris?
It sounds sadly plausible to me, having done that enough in flight simulators as a kid. But tough case to prove without revealing info about how F-16s are being employed.
An honest question. How do you hit a debris, especially from a shahed drone, such that it kills you instantly, without giving you any opportunity to eject?
Physics. High speed impact of a chunk of debris hitting the cockpit knocks the pilot unconscious. Rate of closure in a head-on intercept is very fast, the target is highly explosive, and debris falls, so a jet entering a diving turn at just the wrong moment can hit the field.
I've literally had this happen in civilian-grade flight sims. Real world is always more random than the simulation. To me, it's as likely as a Patriot locking on, the pilot not being aware despite having a threat warning receiver, then being fatally struck with no chance to eject.
Nope. I'll explain why in the follow-up to the IADS-feature.
Regarding the Marshal Plan, we can see that Greece and Turkey were not overrun by communism. Neither were the other countries that in the end recieved support. And I think it was offered to the East Block as well, which rejected it. It is still remembered in many European countries. Dollar for dollar it must have been one of the most efficient use of money to create lasting alliances.
The USSR rejected it, on behalf of everyone in the Warsaw Pact. No capitalist money allowed, only communism. The Marshall Plan will forever be one of the most successful foreign policies any government has ever implemented.
Actually, USA and USSR were in the process of negotiating the supply of the Marshal Plan to the Soviet Union - in exchange for 10,000-15,000 US POWs 'liberated' by the Soviets from Nazi Germany's POW-camps, but hijacked to the USSR and never returned to the USA.
....but then North Korea invaded South Korea, and these negotiations were cancelled.
Is one of very few, but extremely shameful episodes in the US-related history of the Second World War.
Greece had to enter a nasty civil war, with the government returning from Egypt needing military support from UK and later USA.
The war ended after the enactment of the Marshall plan, and the wounds still remain open up to this day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Civil_War
> Do you remember the leaked US document demanding reforms and the timescales, sent to Zelenskyi? Has UA satisfied any of those demands? Even a single one? I am quite honestly surprised, that any US representative is speaking with the UA government at all.
I don't get your point here. The U.S. demanded Ukraine institute reforms, or we would cut off all ties? We still communicate with Russia, even though they are a mafia-style dictatorship.
Russia isn't receiving hundreds of billions of dollars from the US tax payer. You seem to believe that countries give each other money as charity, with no strings attached. Unless you realise that's not how it works, you will remain baffled by the events unfolding.
Russia is a common enemy. It's like France aiding the American colonies against Great Britain during the Revolutionary War.
The U.S. military was essentially purpose built to destroy Russian air assets and armor. Ukraine is doing that right now. They are performing a service for us and for the world.
They are receiving support, so what's your point? No, they are not performing any service, they are fighting only for themselves, for their own survival. Exactly as it should be. It just so happens that their agenda overlaps with ours, nothing more, nothing less. Stop this poetic bullshit.
Sad that this is all totally doable, but everyone is taught in school to trust their government, so here we all are...
If NATO did everything it should have, Ukraine would have been in NATO in 2008 and there would have been no war.
That is just not true. There was never a moment in time when Ukraine satisfied any conditions of joining NATO, regardless of the politics. Ukraine wasn't even a democracy in 2008 and it sure isn't obvious it will be one after this war.
go kuddle yourself. In 2008 we had a pretty democratic pro-western government ranked way higher in the democracy index than Montenegro, for example. Failure to respond to Ukraine's plea contributed to Yanukovich rise to power in 2010.
pro-russian id!ots like you should read wikipedia before making statements
I will hazard to say that, given the circumstances, you are far more likely to be kuddled than me. You are clearly suffering from severe brain damage, please seek medical attention.
I have lived for longer than the entire history of Ukrainian statehood. If you think that an election sandwiched between dictatorships is enough to be a democracy, then you definitely neither were nor are a democratic country. You've wasted 33 years and yet you blame others for it. Typical homo sovieticus.
Maybe it’s your dementia talking since you are that old, but if you knew a thing or two about Ukraine, you’d not use cliche’s like “wasted 33 years“. Ukraine is a success story by any measure, given it’s history. Luckily, you are old enough to die of natural causes, no point wasting time on you.
You stupid, obnoxious, low standards asshole. 1992-2021 Ukraine has achieved a cumulative real growth of -28% (IMF). A similar size Poland +328%. If that is a success story, then what the hell is a failure. Born almost the poorest in Europe and die the poorest. I hope there are books on this economic miracle.
You're mistaken. Ukraine was in fact considered to be a democracy in 2008.
"The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Index of Democracy 2008"
> Ukraine which suffered only a small deterioration in its score between 2006
and 2008, remains, along with Moldova, the only democracy in the CIS (albeit
in the flawed category).
https://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy%20Index%202008.pdf
Russia, on the other hand was considered to be a "hybrid regime".
Ukraine's score: 6.94
Russia's score: 4.48
This index is rubbish. However, if you really want to use it, then Ukraine has been labelled a hybrid regime at least since 2015. It scores even below Mexico, where the government doesn't even control half the country's territory and 60 candidates were assassinated during the 2024 electoral campaign alone.
Give it a rest.
If NATO did things properly training and reequipment of Ukraine would have started in 2014.
There would have been an MDAP type plan like what US did in 1950s to re-equip Ukraine with F-16s, Patriots etc etc.
Instead the US ignored the issue and Germany and France were happy to freeze the war.
NATO were training Ukraine since 2014, focusing on special forces. First you have to set the right culture and standards at the elite level, before you can move lower. Also, this is complete revisionism. The mass rearmament of Ukraine in 2014 was never even remotely on the table. It wasn't a decision to be made in the first place. You may as well claim that the "stupid" Allies should've killed Hitler in 1921 when he became the leader of the Nazi party.
Yes, the US, Germany and France largely ignored, but not completely, the issue because nobody cares about a non-democratic country, whose half the army committed treason and switched sides.
> non-democratic country
Not true.
> whose half the army committed treason and switched sides
This seems like a gross exaggeration.
Ukraine. Was. Not. A. Democratic. Country. In. 2014. If you want to argue that the world is flat, then by all means feel free to do this, but please leave me out of it. Beggars belief that there are people thinking that a revolution and an election is all that is required to be a democratic state. Russia must have been a model democracy for you when they held elections in 1991.
I posted in another comment "The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Index of Democracy 2008", where they rated Ukraine as a "flawed democracy" and Russia as a "hybrid regime".
Kindly stop posting this particular falsehood.
According to your logic, Ukraine has not been a democracy since at least 2015. In fact, it was labelled a hybrid regime in 2012. A schrodinger's democracy.
It is not historical revisionism. Your comparison is stupid because:
A. Hitler wasn't in power in 1921 whilst Piton was in 2014
B. Germany never invaded anyone in 1921, whereas Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014
Truth is Americans don't give a flying fuck about Ukraine. As Def Sec Austin said the goal is to bleed Russia.
Pre 2022 US and NATO never even had any kind of concrete Ukraine policy (which emboldened Russia).
This is why Ukraine is receiving junk like Leopard 1A5 instead of some of the thousands of M1 Abrams in storage that will never see combat.
Also US doesn't give a fuck about democracy. Some of its biggest allies are autocratic Islamofascist countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE.
In 20th century US actively toppled democratic regimes it did not like eg Chile or Iran
> UA pilots are not suddenly going to know how to achieve air superiority and perform CAS. UA commanders won't suddenly level up, as if in a video game, and be able to fight with entire brigades. They won't magically create divisions and be able to coordinate multiple brigades. Syrskyi won't suddenly stop micromanaging and circumventing the official hierarchy. Zelenskyi and Yermak won't suddenly stop being stupid, corrupt, useless hacks.
This is some sort of logical fallacy, which appears to be the reverse of the "no silver bullet" fallacy. You're arguing that only a silver bullet is worth using. We don't have any silver bullets, so we should do nothing. It reflects black and white thinking.
It's similar to the Biden administration's argument that permitting Ukraine to use U.S. weapons systems to conduct deep strikes "would not be a game changer". Whether or not something is a game changer is not the criteria we should be using. The criteria we should be using is the value/risk proposition of doing vs. not doing.
Wars are not won or lost on a tactical or operational level. The value is counted in $, £ and € and it's not UA who are paying. When somebody is asking for hundreds of billions of dollars, their proposition is more convincing if they can prove they won't simply waste it all away.
Also, the history of militaries in wartime suggests that the Ukrainian military would learn, adapt, and evolve over time. Your view is that they are a static organization, incapable of learning and utilizing unfamiliar concepts or technologies. This is obviously not the case. We have seen with our own eyes the significant advances Ukraine has made in its military since the start of this war.
I am talking about the institutional organisation and culture, you are talking about user manuals. The ZSU absolutely is a static organisation, incapable of learning. They are constantly proving this. If you don't believe me, then believe Tom who has been writing about this for quite a while now.
> I am talking about the institutional organisation and culture, you are talking about user manuals.
No, that's not what I'm talking about.
> The ZSU absolutely is a static organisation, incapable of learning.
I disagree with this. I think we have seen plenty of evidence of the Ukrainian military learning, adapting, and evolving.
OK, I'm all ears. What development and improvement has the ZSU made at the operational and strategic level? I can only name one, the capability of striking static infrastructure deep in the Russian territory.
JASSM? Are you sure? I've only seen JSOW mentioned?
Did I mix the two designations?
"new arms to be shipped to Ukraine are going to include AGM-154 JASSM stand-off missiles for PSU’s F-16AMs"
Just a minor misnomer. I also wish it was JASSM.
Dear Tom, let's say my gut feeling, is telling me that more and more of those are shot down using small arms, Gepards, Skynex and the sorts. And same feeling tells me that routes somehow are less variable these days, then before. Maybe no time to adjust with daily activity. Maybe 30-40% is true, maybe not. Depends on the day.
Zelensky shows his plan to Scholz, to Biden, to anybody else. It's perfect. The Ukrainian people and I are voters and elected Zelensky. Oh! It's a trifling thing. You don't mind! Zelensky thinks that we are not worthy to be shown us his plan.
P.s. Perhaps it would be interesting to you, Tom. Some details of how the Ukrainian air defence worked in July 2022. It's the details about the missile attack on Kanatove airfield. From 18:50 to 20:40 https://youtu.be/vGlJ4togc5g?si=f_N-ef42HUgqkuLo&t=1180 It's a well-known scandal about Roman Chervinsky.
Впевнений, що питання не в промисловості по виробництву дронів. А в тому що Путін змінив ядерну доктрину. І Зеленський взяв паузу, щоб оцінити можливі наслідки таких ударів...
See if this changes your mind: https://t.me/ShrikeNews/17450
I don’t think Zelensky could pull off Netanyahu’s insolence. First, it takes a major league asshole, which I don’t think Zelensky is. Second, Biden’s long support for Israel and Israel’s strong support in the U.S. make the situation unique.
Thanks for the update. Including the political analysis. Yes, Europe and others should have provided air defense. Still, today it is useful to support the rebuilding of Ukrainian infrastructure. But more air defense would of course be valuable too.