The Russians use drones with target tracking in Kursk region. The tracking adds $100-200 to the cost of the FPV drone but makes it immune to EW https://t.me/serhii_flash/3951
I've been wondering about the development of autonomous drones. I've read that these will use a combination of inertial and image matching guidance. In a long range implementation, I wonder how the terrain maps have been acquired - on the assumption that you'd need 3-axis data, particularly for low-level operation. Does the US satellite surveillance actually generate that? My interest is based on the fact that in the late 80s I was involved in a project to develop 3D photogrammetry using the newly developed solid state camera sensors. Although we were primarily interested in machine vision, especially marine ROVs, I always wanted to put a system on a model aircraft... But we were a bit too early given the limitations of those cameras and especially the computer component. And the limitations of the UK banksters who managed, in consequence to ruin me.
One note on Vuhledar - the big orc assaults in 2023 that the 72nd fended off weren't backed by mass glide bomb attacks at the same level they are now. Those appear to have finally reduced the fortress so much that it's no longer the position it once was.
Frankly, were I running GenStab-U strategy, the front line would already be about 20km further back on most fronts. But I'd be doing a lot more engineering than seems to be happening, too.
I haven't written about it much, but I've been critical of the decision to hold so close to urban Donbas. Trying to put together a deep piece on leadership training. Hard to do right. But something has got to give.
Still, the corrupt goblins want their children to dig their warrens, gather their mushrooms and brew their ale, not die in the bloodthirsty orcs' army fighting crusaders.
When I read this texts I wonder, how the hell is Ukraine planning to "win this war", win as in the sense of recovering all the territory lost since 2014, that isn't happening. They just don't have the men and the gear to achieve this. Would somebody care to enlighten me and get me out of my pessimistic mood?
Since NATO wants to fight the war to the last Ukrainian without providing what’s needed to win for fear of defeating Russia, I don’t see how there can be a military victory. The one way to win is for the Russian state to collapse, which is what DC is also trying to prevent while trying to keep Ukraine afloat. Will the least incompetent side prevail?
Winning is always relative. So it wont necessarily involved the full liberation but may be akin to survive at all as an independent state despite territorial losses.
Tragically, it often feels like Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian top brass prefer to talk about the hypothetical after war scenarios and so naturally keep been vocal about their maximalist ambitions (nothing wrong being maximalist about your nation freedom btw) rather than do their necessary homework to make such winning scenario possible. Like finally getting the AFU house in order, synchronizing the rest of the country so stuff like rear fortifications are done and done properly, etc ...
Imho Zelensky and friends too often take the bait of Western leaders talking about the after war without realizing Western leaders like to talk about the peace treaty, the "security architecture" and all that BS as it allows them to simultaneously talk about Ukraine without talking about what they are doing right here right now about Ukraine. The most egregious case being Macron. But really, all Westen leaders do it.
It is a trap Ukrainians must avoid yet the Zelensky administration exacerbated it with all its talk of NATO admission, security guarantee and whatever BS is being discussed currently.
Russia can still attack across international borders. The war stops when Russia no longer wants to fight. Thus its socio-economic decline must continue to be fueled to bring about such a change of attitude.
They will achive this goal when russia will have to withdraw. When the economy crumble, and the millitary is on their knees, and their internal political system see that they are in need of change.
There is a reason for the change in thei,r "use of atomic weapons policy", the last days.. Lets hope it is panic.
Legendary the 72nd Mech, I hope this unit teaches a lesson to the Genstab-U(or OTU, or OSUV or something like that) how to get out of the encirclement.
"And as a ‘consequences first’-guy, I cannot but wonder: in few years, when the Russians are kicked (in high loop, that’s sure) out of the country: what a mess are Ukrainians going to find in this area…?"
In that scenario UA soldiers gonna see a brand new city (rebuilt like Mariupol) with locals possesing RU passports and earning several times more than an average UA citizen.
Locals? What locals? There are no civilians left in Vuhledar.
Besides, go and ask the Russian veterans: those re-deployed to Kursk can't stress how happy they are to serve there, because (quote), 'people in the Donbas hate us and don't want us around'.
You are right. I don't know how to explain but I'll try. One part of the people Donbass shouted out 'we are Russians and want to be with Russia' another part shouted out 'I have no power to fight for to alive. I want to live like an ordinary people. I hate this war'. It's like catholic and protestant people in France before the Saint Bartholomew Day. The Ukrainian authorities did nothing before 2014, so Ukraine received this this bloody problem.
Population is not leaving Russia-held territories. Millions left Ukraine (from all parts of the country) to evade mobilization and war, not Russian. Surely population running from front zone, the question still stays on: how many will prefer to stay under Russia should they have a chance? The answer is simple: many. Population of Crimea, LNR and DNR have no problems to imigrate from Russia, but they stay home. Reason is simple: money. If you are loyal to new authorities, you can make a good career. Actually, that the thing that millions of Ukranians were doing since 17th century after Malorossia voluntarily joined Russia.
In case of Vuhledar, yes. But in places like Novogrodovka (left by UA troops without fights) population will stay on. Even in deadly places like Avdeevka or Bakmut from 5 to 10% of population stood at home and waited for Russian troops.
What are you talking about? Over the 10 years of the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, almost all the mines were closed, there is no medicine, many just went to work in Russia. And I have relatives there, I know everything firsthand. In Mariupol, you rebuilt Azovstal, at least one large enterprise was built there. If everything is destroyed, then where will people work? What are you hanging noodles on our ears here.
"...looting local business and private homes – and that all over south-western Kharkiv. Yes, they’re looting Russian possessions from Russians." - I suppose you meant Kursk, not Kharkiv.
The Russians use drones with target tracking in Kursk region. The tracking adds $100-200 to the cost of the FPV drone but makes it immune to EW https://t.me/serhii_flash/3951
Presumably they still need a pilot to acquire the target before they track it so EW still has an important role.
I've been wondering about the development of autonomous drones. I've read that these will use a combination of inertial and image matching guidance. In a long range implementation, I wonder how the terrain maps have been acquired - on the assumption that you'd need 3-axis data, particularly for low-level operation. Does the US satellite surveillance actually generate that? My interest is based on the fact that in the late 80s I was involved in a project to develop 3D photogrammetry using the newly developed solid state camera sensors. Although we were primarily interested in machine vision, especially marine ROVs, I always wanted to put a system on a model aircraft... But we were a bit too early given the limitations of those cameras and especially the computer component. And the limitations of the UK banksters who managed, in consequence to ruin me.
.
I believe they use a kind of neural network to model the terrain based on Google maps (2D) images. A human can orient with a 2D map.
One note on Vuhledar - the big orc assaults in 2023 that the 72nd fended off weren't backed by mass glide bomb attacks at the same level they are now. Those appear to have finally reduced the fortress so much that it's no longer the position it once was.
Frankly, were I running GenStab-U strategy, the front line would already be about 20km further back on most fronts. But I'd be doing a lot more engineering than seems to be happening, too.
I haven't written about it much, but I've been critical of the decision to hold so close to urban Donbas. Trying to put together a deep piece on leadership training. Hard to do right. But something has got to give.
Another case of a programmer who volunteered to help ZSU but ended up in an assault unit https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oleksandr-shturniev-325a26135_%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%8E-%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8-%D1%88%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BD%D1%94%D0%B2-%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80-%D1%8F-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82-activity-7245147301093027840-m8c2
Smth similar happened recently on the opposite side:
https://t.me/operator13zov/32937
Sorry, orcs vs. goblins
Can you answer the questions you are asked?
Still, the corrupt goblins want their children to dig their warrens, gather their mushrooms and brew their ale, not die in the bloodthirsty orcs' army fighting crusaders.
Never doubted that. Still I meant smth different: governance
When I read this texts I wonder, how the hell is Ukraine planning to "win this war", win as in the sense of recovering all the territory lost since 2014, that isn't happening. They just don't have the men and the gear to achieve this. Would somebody care to enlighten me and get me out of my pessimistic mood?
Since NATO wants to fight the war to the last Ukrainian without providing what’s needed to win for fear of defeating Russia, I don’t see how there can be a military victory. The one way to win is for the Russian state to collapse, which is what DC is also trying to prevent while trying to keep Ukraine afloat. Will the least incompetent side prevail?
Winning is always relative. So it wont necessarily involved the full liberation but may be akin to survive at all as an independent state despite territorial losses.
Tragically, it often feels like Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian top brass prefer to talk about the hypothetical after war scenarios and so naturally keep been vocal about their maximalist ambitions (nothing wrong being maximalist about your nation freedom btw) rather than do their necessary homework to make such winning scenario possible. Like finally getting the AFU house in order, synchronizing the rest of the country so stuff like rear fortifications are done and done properly, etc ...
Imho Zelensky and friends too often take the bait of Western leaders talking about the after war without realizing Western leaders like to talk about the peace treaty, the "security architecture" and all that BS as it allows them to simultaneously talk about Ukraine without talking about what they are doing right here right now about Ukraine. The most egregious case being Macron. But really, all Westen leaders do it.
It is a trap Ukrainians must avoid yet the Zelensky administration exacerbated it with all its talk of NATO admission, security guarantee and whatever BS is being discussed currently.
Russia can still attack across international borders. The war stops when Russia no longer wants to fight. Thus its socio-economic decline must continue to be fueled to bring about such a change of attitude.
Excellent question, Pedro.
Let me think about this and formulate everything the way it's making sense, and I'll come back with a separate feature to answer it.
Oh thanks so much for replying.
They will achive this goal when russia will have to withdraw. When the economy crumble, and the millitary is on their knees, and their internal political system see that they are in need of change.
There is a reason for the change in thei,r "use of atomic weapons policy", the last days.. Lets hope it is panic.
Thanks Tom
Legendary the 72nd Mech, I hope this unit teaches a lesson to the Genstab-U(or OTU, or OSUV or something like that) how to get out of the encirclement.
"And as a ‘consequences first’-guy, I cannot but wonder: in few years, when the Russians are kicked (in high loop, that’s sure) out of the country: what a mess are Ukrainians going to find in this area…?"
In that scenario UA soldiers gonna see a brand new city (rebuilt like Mariupol) with locals possesing RU passports and earning several times more than an average UA citizen.
Locals? What locals? There are no civilians left in Vuhledar.
Besides, go and ask the Russian veterans: those re-deployed to Kursk can't stress how happy they are to serve there, because (quote), 'people in the Donbas hate us and don't want us around'.
You are right. I don't know how to explain but I'll try. One part of the people Donbass shouted out 'we are Russians and want to be with Russia' another part shouted out 'I have no power to fight for to alive. I want to live like an ordinary people. I hate this war'. It's like catholic and protestant people in France before the Saint Bartholomew Day. The Ukrainian authorities did nothing before 2014, so Ukraine received this this bloody problem.
P.s. It's my own experience from March 2022.
You only left out all the Ukrainians in Donbass who want to be Ukrainians.
Millions of them have left since 2014. Dozens of thousands are serving in the ZSU.
Does nobody in Russia wonder why?
Population is not leaving Russia-held territories. Millions left Ukraine (from all parts of the country) to evade mobilization and war, not Russian. Surely population running from front zone, the question still stays on: how many will prefer to stay under Russia should they have a chance? The answer is simple: many. Population of Crimea, LNR and DNR have no problems to imigrate from Russia, but they stay home. Reason is simple: money. If you are loyal to new authorities, you can make a good career. Actually, that the thing that millions of Ukranians were doing since 17th century after Malorossia voluntarily joined Russia.
In case of Vuhledar, yes. But in places like Novogrodovka (left by UA troops without fights) population will stay on. Even in deadly places like Avdeevka or Bakmut from 5 to 10% of population stood at home and waited for Russian troops.
LOL. Novohrodivka is currently nearly empty, except of the Russian soldiers hiding inside it's buildings.
What are you talking about? Over the 10 years of the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, almost all the mines were closed, there is no medicine, many just went to work in Russia. And I have relatives there, I know everything firsthand. In Mariupol, you rebuilt Azovstal, at least one large enterprise was built there. If everything is destroyed, then where will people work? What are you hanging noodles on our ears here.
"...looting local business and private homes – and that all over south-western Kharkiv. Yes, they’re looting Russian possessions from Russians." - I suppose you meant Kursk, not Kharkiv.
Thanks for this less than upbeat report Tom
"152nd Mech" - reformatted to Jaeger, too.