Comrade Lenin said: Every cook can run the state. Since then, the favorite pastime of Soviet and post-Soviet people is to scold the government. Previously, this was done in kitchens and smoking rooms, now on social networks. Ask any (post)Soviet janitor - he has a solution to any problem, including those of universal scale. I recommend that Western analysts read Bulgakov's "Heart of a Dog" and only then evaluate information from the "lower ranks"
But if you invented a term for «cuddling orcs», maybe we should have another term for fagott general? I do believe fagott here is a derogatory term for homosexual, but they cannot be blamed for the generals mistakes? Oh well, its hard to find good swear words when being woke.,,
I find it highly fascinating 'you all' (at least a dozen of different readers) is complaining about the use of that expression today. Seems, 'nothing else matters'?
OK then, here my 'POV in that regards'...
I grew up in the 1970s and 1980s, when being a homosexual was like having a highly infectious disease ('at least AIDS', which was also known as 'pest for homosexuals') and thus widely frowned upon. Had 2-3 buddies that were homosexual: they were often ashamed of themselves, I couldn't care less and was protecting them from arseholes of all sorts, whenever necessary (was, several times also called 'homosexual' for protecting homosexual buddies).
I didn't care later on - say, in the 1990s - when being a homosexual was 'no crime' any more, 'but not good either'. I couldn't care less when homosexuality became 'something quasi normal' either. And I can't care less nowadays.
For me, it was that way 40 years ago, and it remains that way until today: whoever is or wants to be homosexal: fine, his/her private issues. I DO NOT CARE.
Arguably, I am a 'bit conservative', but that's 'relative', too: I simply do not understand people who - nowadays - 'must express' their homosexuality in the public. After all, I'm not running around and bragging with my heterosexuality, either: that's simply 'private business, period'.
I'm fed up of having it prescribed what words am I using and what not. I have never cared about somebody's sexuality, and don't know why should anybody else. Therefore, for me, that with 'Faggot Generals' is relative: it's in widespread use within the ZSU as 'executive summary'-type of description for idiocy and incompetence of their generals.
As such, it's absolutely not related to their sexuality.
While I perfectly understand that only a victim can say it's a victim, or not - I do not see why does anybody feel 'addressed' and 'disturbed'? It's in no means related to anybody's sexual orientation.
So, where's the problem then?
I do think there might be slightly more important issues to tackle. Otherwise, that with sexuality is going to become entirely irrelevant - and homosexuality is going to end verboten, again (like it is already in Russia, at least officially).
My short answer to those upset by the term is that "pidar" has as much to do with homosexuality as "motherfucker" does with mothers. That usually helps people understand. But maybe keep the original "pidarasy" in your writing so people unfamiliar with it don't get upset?
This is a good comparison. Surely you can see how fucking your mother is something seen by the society as very wrong. That's the point about "fagott" too, the term is derogatory, because homosexuality was seen as something bad as well.
And while I don't really mind it that much, I do think it would be better if the term went out of use, as it in general has been in the west.
I'm all for changing society for the better, however payoff-to-effort puts this issue on an extremely low priority. But I have no objections in principle.
Maybe these generals should start being called sheep who don't learn anything. That's what we call them, but pidar is more appropriate. Because their decisions get people killed and injured.
Thanks for the update Tom, WTF is the wrong with the ZSU command/sector command system!!? When a commander accuses subordinate COs and their units of "defection" that is paranoid and murderous intent to harm/kill/slander the subordinate COs and the unit who disobeyed commands! Is the ZSU now having "no retreat guard units" behind the ZSU Bdes/frontlines?
If Syrsky can just carry on acting like this, then Zelensky either has the wrong or jaded advisors who could suggest that he should be removed but don't do it.
Zelensky may be the supreme commander, but he is simply not a military man who recognizes such mistakes. I am also sure that he doesn't have time for that because there are enough problems in the state that Zelensky still has to deal with. In the end, you can accuse him of making a lot of wrong decisions, but he can't be everywhere.
The guy is a comedian who was only elected because the Ukrainians wanted to get one over on the old government. So he slipped into this position unconventionally and now he has to command a defensive war against Russia, while also investigating and stopping corruption in the country, making flying visits abroad, keeping his people happy, commenting on and justifying every crappy idea and action of his government (ministers), etc...
I think that some of the criticism of him is completely exaggerated if you just put yourself in his shoes. I also think that he thinks about his wrong decisions every day and regrets them. He is in a very crappy position because, as president, he ultimately makes the final decision, has to take responsibility for everything, is constantly criticized, etc... Zelensky is a really poor bastard, with damn lousy advisors.
Another question. If Syrsky were to be deposed because of his wrong decisions, who would be considered as a successor who would not make these mistakes and would make the right decisions?
Zelensky turns out to be no decisionmaker, no statesman, no strategist. Actually, he's nothing at all: just a populist. The only thing he can care about is his standing in the polls. That's why he's not ordering total mobilisation, for example: 'that's too unpopular'. Just like he's introducing no reforms in the governance, enabling the jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute corruption and incompetence etc. 'That's too unpopular', and therefore those accused of corruption and incompetence are appointed ambassadors instead of being prosecuted.
...while the country is facing a war of extermination...
...and Zelensky is then expecting the West to 'support all out' - although he is the principal reason why Ukraine is not fighting 'all out'?
Well Cadet, why are you asking? Such a question framed that way is rarely meant as a start to an accolade, rather an attempt to diskreditere the person you are asking about. So what is Toms background to his analysis? I havent seen you around here before, good with new people discussing. But what Tom has is 30 pluss years in analysing modern war. From middle east and Africa mostly. Now that includes analysing the leaders of the various nations and faction. He has interviewed, analyser dokuments and n general collected needed materiale for doing these analysis. Along the way he has written books on these conflicts. So he has both the experience, the empirical sources and the analytical Training to do what he does. I dont know a single thing about his Training, educational and managerial level. But he has the needed knowledge to do the analysis he does. Feel free to disagree. People here do. But do so a little more specifuc than asking such questions. They are only intended to discredit, it discredits you instead.
1. In order to give objective assessments of the actions of certain people, you need to have a similar education and similar experience. 2. Assessing wars after the fact is not the same as during military operations. 3. I have been here for a long time. I only attached my avatar yesterday.
In order to give assessment you need a similar education and experience? Bullshit. You need empirical data on what happened, you need a theory/model to analyse it and you need to be able to summarise your analysis logically, coherently and understandable. An education or a similar background might help you in that, but migh also skew your analysis. If you have been here and know Toms background, why is that question the one you are asking? Pointing out wrong or missing empirical data, faulty analysis etc is fine. But be specific, harping on education and experience is uninteresting and bad manners. Identifying faulty arguments is helpful.
Yes, of course, the analysis of military operations is available to any schoolchild... who knows why people study in military academies, and then go through all the stages of service to become a commander, when any janitor can do his job.
I came to the same conclusion when he dismissed Oleshchuk. Not that I find the later dismissing undeserved but lets be honest : as with every time Zelensky dismissed a top officier, it was not motivated by serious Indepth assessment of their records but just to manage the latest PR disaster caused by said officer. In Oleshchuk's case, it was managing to loose a F-16 on their first mission by friendly fire.
In fact it is depressing when you recall all the decisions Zelensky took after the battle for Kiyv : it always comes down to PR : Fortress Bakhmut, dismissing Zaluzhnyi when it could no longer be denied the oversold counter-offensive had been defeated and Zaluzhnyi himself admitted it, the Krinky affair which was an attempt to claim otherwise, the mobilization debacle, the Kurk operation which now feels like a Krinky 2.0, Oleshchuk's dismissal, etc. Not to talk about his ever increasing vain diplomatic campaign (security pact, peace plan, victory plan, etc). Even the long range drones campaign feels like a PR effort first which turned into a rare beneficial development.
It feels like next year will be the defense of cities with millions of inhabitants: Dnipro and Kharkiv. There are no fortifications from Pavlograd to Pokrovsk, and those that are there are made as they are and are located incorrectly. But Zelensky decided to allocate 1000 UAH, it's just some kind of mockery. We have subdivisions without REB, transportation, ammunition, and he allocates 1000 hryvnias to civilians. Damn it, perhaps we really need to hold elections to remove these pests, even in the conditions of war. Fucking populists.
He is very likely fixing the imbalance caused by the inflation of the income of civilians vs relatively high income of the military engaged in combat. Such things kill the economy, and giving money for free is what is used to fix that. Compare to what the USA did to recover from the lockdown.
This is the third time that 1,000 hryvnias have been given out in this country, and in the present circumstances it looks pathetic. At a time when army levies are constantly being collected. This is like replacing memorial plaques in Selidovo and planting flowers in Pokrovsk. Given the scandals with the MCHK, prosecutor's office, unfinished fortifications, etc. This is just another populism. Although I am not surprised that Zelensky and company were elected for populism. So there is nothing to be surprised about....
Selensky is not a politician, but an actor. That's why he's good at selling things.
But, as I wrote above, I think that a large part of the problem is incompetent advisors and ministers. A president can't know everything and that's why he has advisors who are usually experts in their field. In the case of Selensky, however, most of his advisors are not experts, but buddies who have no idea what they're doing.
So his close colleagues and ministers should first be replaced with competent people who can give Selensky wise advice.
I think an election held now could put pro-Russian politicians in positions that are bad for the country. What idiot wants to be elected Ukrainian president and take on this merciless office... Klitschko, for example? Are there any alternatives that are good for Ukraine?
That's precisely right, his problem is his preference for loyalty over competence. When asked about replacing some of his friends he looks like he's about to bite whoever asked that.
Because he trusted his friends... In a country full of corruption, trust is more important than competence. After the election, when the country was in political ruins, I would have trusted friends rather than politicians or experts who would either hand you over to the Russians immediately if you turned your back on them or would take every last cent out of the pockets of a naked person.
Four years later, however, one would expect Selensky to realize that his buddy advisors and ministers are leading him into trouble because they have no idea. Dozens of ministers and high-ranking officials have been replaced in the meantime, but then the wrong people were put in place.
Although I think that no one is currently in a position to put the country on the right path because the entire political system is in tatters.
Two years ago, the EU gave Selensky tasks on how his country could one day become an EU candidate. Has he implemented any of these demands so far, or is he at least in the process of doing so? He says that corruption is decreasing, but in a country with less and less money, you can't have corruption.
Making a government out of your friends is a natural thing to, but it reliably ruins countries, organizations, armies and so on. Friendships don't survive either.
w.r.t EU demands, the changes are actually being implemented, I hear. So change is possible.
Total mobilization, you say? Then a few questions: 1. What to arm them with? 2. How to motivate them?
Let me explain: few people want to fight in Ukraine (even fewer in the West), this is a normal phenomenon for the present time. Putin is also afraid of mobilization and lures volunteers with huge payments. Those forcibly mobilized will surrender en masse, or even turn their weapons against those who give orders.
No more than 10-15% of the population are ready to defend their freedom, the rest are willing to live under any government.
10 percent, that's too optimistic. Probably only 1-2 percent of the conscripted men were left, because everyone went at will from the very beginning of the war. And this is a tiny fraction of 1 percent of the entire population of Ukraine. I live in Ukraine, and I do not understand who they want to mobilize, if more than 99 percent of the population, who are still at "freedom" categorically do not want to fight. No one in Ukraine has any illusions that if you go to war, you lose everything, you get nothing in return from the state - nothing, emptiness. Only death, destroyed health, grief and poverty for your family. These illusions, these dreams are only for those who never, under any circumstances, will never get into real combat. For example, all the commentators of this blog, including the head of this blog. And of course - all Ukrainians who have a good salary or "good contacts" among Ukrainian officials. All Ukrainian bureaucrats and officials also dream that the war would be eternal, with total mobilization. The author of this blog and commentators do not pay attention to the existing order of things in Ukraine, which lasts for 32 years. I assume that they think that a Citizen of Ukraine is some brainless unit from a computer game that dreams of becoming a cripple or dying.
That's a false argument people in power use often to refuse any criticism. You do not to be a writer to be able to criticize a book, you do not need to be a president to be criticize presidents.
Unfortunately people do the same while being the victims of the elites' incompetence themselves. The proverbial crabs in a bucket. Oh how many times people did this to me to their own detriment.
There are concrete things Zelensky fails: e.g. defense sector is overbureaucratic and slowly reacts to changes. It build just bigger drones. Small drones are not funded by goverment, but people collect money for it and without FPVs is not possible to fight today. FPV distribution to units or any donated small stuff from UA or abroad has to go directly to verified units and commanders because when it goes through across distribution it's slow and may be stolen. Etc etc.
I know lot of this is still about soviet mindset and is very hard to uprooted, and Zelensky is not directly responsible. But he has to name the problems and show direction where to go, how to lead.
Small drones cannot be made without Chinese components, in particular electric motors and batteries. Heavy attack drones are essentially an airplane, Ukraine has an industrial base and specialists for this. Zelensky inherited corruption from the previous authorities, and it is not true that he does not fight it - arrests of officials are reported almost daily. This problem has been in the making for decades and cannot be solved in five minutes. By the way, the situation is not much better in the West, and even more so in the East.
Read my last paragraph. While Churchill made is war cabinet from different political from different parties and view to hear all voices from society https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill_war_ministry Zeliensky is enclosed by advisors sharing his view so is not able to (or do not want to) hear and address the critique. Then, even the army is not able to (or do not want to) hear and address the critique. And it prevents the problem (effective) resolution.
Of course, question is, whether there are some political leaders in Ukraine able act better. But it's not the reason to dismiss any critique as non-rightful.
Soviet minset!? I would understand if you wrote this 30 years ago, but now...Total or partial inefficience is a commoness around the globe as populists gaining power not only in politics but in industries, armies, and etc.
Thank you Tom for realistic depiction of the situation and as well multitude of wake up calls along the last few months.
Irrespective of the way the situation is presented (sarcastic; upbeat; downbeat) - there is no reason of hiding actual deficiencies and not to act on them. The thing that I sorrowly miss is what are the actions being taken by Ukraine. And this is in fact the most worrisome signal. Thus when you titled one of your review "Car-crash in slow motion", even prior opening it, I've realized that my fears are getting more foundation.
I do want Ukraine to win or at least to stop the murderous russian regime. I will support and actively supporting Ukraine through my available means. But it will become harder and harder mentally if no clear visible actions are taken by Ukrainan government. It is impossible to rely all the time on heroic work of the soldiers on the Frontline.
As somebody mentioned in a different blog - if everything works well, you don't need heroes.
Here I constantly see demands to change commanders, literally: “you need to constantly change people until a competent one is found,” and today I see criticism that they are changed too often.
Surely the reason for the change of commanders is relevant? Change of commanders due to their mistakes vs change of commanders due to the Generals mistakes?
Where is the guarantee that it was the general who made the mistake, and not his subordinate? Drawing conclusions based on chatter on social networks is not serious. Assessments are made after the war, based on documents. And even in this there is no guarantee of objectivity.
I do not give any assessments, because I am not an expert in this topic. I wish the same for others... It is simply amazing how many great strategists there are here.
Are these lower level commanders incompetent? Did they hide information and create large losses for their units?
Let's see Sirsky:
- Never retreats. Removes any commander who orders a retreat or doesn't punish a retreat.
- Has no bad info for the president or the public. The Russians are not advancing and Ukrainian commanders are not retreating and they are not punished.
- Has no victory plan. Nobody knows how he will stop the Russians. Everybody should keep their trenches and not retreat.
How do you know what orders Syrsky gives, what he reports to Zelensky, and what his plans are for the future? Do you understand that this is not information that is in the public domain?
What are the orders given by Sirski: Vuhledar. No retreat and dismissal of brigade commander.
What Sirski reports to Zelenski: the front holds and there is no need for emergency measures. Zelenski started to talk about negociations only after the failed Ramstein meeting.
What are Sirski plans: to hold the frontline and not retreat.
He could trade land and increase the quality of Ukrainian units.
He could insist for a massive mobilisation and trade Ukrainian casualties for Russian casualties.
He could use Budanov special forces to infiltrate Russia and start an actual partisan warfare în southern Ukraine.
For a partisan war to take place, the front lines would first have to be dissolved and Russia would have to be satisfied with what they have. But that is not the case...
Tell me, did Syrsky show you his orders? And were you personally present when Syrsky reported to Zelensky?... Guerrilla warfare, you say? At least master the terminology of who the partisans are, Mr. Great Strategist.
Where are these orders from Syrsky? I want to see the documents!
Partisans are citizens of the occupied country who are fighting against the occupiers. They operate at home and with the support of the population.
This war is being waged by Ukrainian patriots in the occupied territories, they are collecting intelligence and eliminating collaborators.
What you are proposing is called a sabotage war. I believe that this is impossible under the given conditions: in a densely populated area, with the availability of modern means of communication, sabotage groups will be very quickly identified and destroyed.
Sorry, Tom, your explanation of misfortunes of 210th TD bat doesn't match the contentent of the source you provided. The source states 210th was fighting for weeks w/o receiving appropriate support resulting in 11 KIA and 70 WIA. Another bat collapsed on the flank resulting in partial encirclement. 210th fled (retreated, withdraw w/o order) to Pokrovsk. Brigade CO ordered them to return to their positions in Hirnik, some did, since then 1 MIA. Look, if this is a war of extermination, as you said, troops should stay and die if orders require, not discussing them, and if consensus is not found ;))) go where they like for safety. I think the next development should be election of officers then C-n-C ))
1. For mad money we are engaged in landscaping parks, mow lawns somewhere in Donetsk region, preferably 5-10-20-30 km from the front, but in no case let the same mad money to help and provide for their own military units, which are located in this or that community, let the volunteers do the provision, they von 50 000 - 60 000 UAH. a month collect, it should be enough;
2. Instead of a competent information policy and media support of recruiting campaigns of each brigade, which are directly on the first line of the front - we fill the cities with bigboards with our cute face with the thesis a la “We live here”. and let TCC deal with brigades staffing according to the same scheme as before, it is the same working and provides maximum quality resources for these brigades, while declaring that “the topic of recruiting is a failure” and it is not able to fully meet the needs of brigades (have you done a fucking thing to develop this very recruiting?);
3. no responsibility for corrupt officials, including those who directly affect the provision of these very brigades, for memes and pictures we detain individuals with tons of bucks “on the crib”, and then publicly declare, “we can't change the legislation, so there will be no responsibility as such”, and in general, what are you lackeys indignant about, well, everyone's getting fucked up, everyone's out on bail and whatever;
4. We first form requirements to everyone in the world and claims, we form nothing to ourselves - everything is fine, everything is perfect, especially when in the hottest phase of the change of brigade commanders in some key brigades for whatever fucking reason, and then we stomp our feet and shout at the naradas, but what went wrong?!
5. We do not deal with internal financial disappearances, we do not shake customs and entire schemes of theft in different echelons of power, in order to use the stolen money for example to pay the GPO or to strengthen the regions, and then loudly declare that people “for some reason” return to their frontline homes and homes in the occupation. Similarly with the previous point - we loudly stomp our feet, declare, but do nothing;
6. We continue to air all kinds of “experts” who prophesize that prices will rise. which prophesize the increase of prices for light, gas, water and air, and at the same time we raise taxes, while in no case we do not deal with point number 5 and do not explain to the people what we plan or do not plan, and how the “top of light, gas and water” have more wealth than some villages put together;
and now compare these points with the ones you've been reading.
for now - which plan are we following more?
moral: if you don't want to win (or if you want to, but don't want to make drastic decisions to achieve the goal), what is the point of making ordinary people believe in it?
All this is well known, the problem exists, no one argues. The corruption system was built for many decades and it is impossible to break it in a couple of years. Firstly, the fighters themselves are corrupt, secondly - where to find so many honest and competent people to replace the corrupt? The Chinese have been fighting this for decades, but even executions do not help.
Thanks for the update. I am glad for some good news. The buddies in Kiev behaves like expected unfortunately. But thankfully as you say, why should the Russians have better leadership? Another good thing. However, while your analysis of both Syrsky, Gen Stab U and Zelensky seems reasonable when you read them I cant help but notice that Stephen korshansky of the Kiev Post are more optimistic and less critical than you. (Total agreement on US politics). I think it is possible to read the situation differently, having said that I urge you to continue providing your analysis as you read the situation.
Be as harsh as you wish. If you end up with that conclusion based on your analysis, fair enough. My approach to understanding is reading several people stories. Some are more optimistic than you. Thats ok too. As long as people tell whatever they think is true. Often several agree and I feel more confident in understanding.
"he would never issue an order for a unit to withdraw because that would be bad news"
In addition, there is no such option as preemptive withdrowal in our Field Manual. Even to start planning a withdrowal - any Ukrainian commander needs to wait until his troops are in full encirclement.
I see Stalinist and Hitlerian demands to never retreat. I see UA command chaos. I see a government very poor in organization and not seriously concerned with all the above, but very good at PR. I think I see and hear echoes of the Spanish Republic in its war with Fascism.
I realize that your emphasis is on being sarcastic and highlighting failures. I do want to point out that courage, determination and a positive outlook are all as contagious as pessimism. I applaud those who can be an encouragement to others.
In a time of war and loss, those who can be an encouragement to others are precious. Have you ever read Viktor Frankl's book, Man's Search for Meaning? It is a powerful statement of seeking the positive, building courage, and sharing kindness. It is Frankl's experience while in a Nazi concentration camp. I highly recommend it.
It is not the job of a foreign journalist to motivate the people in the country or to give them positive encouragement. However, every journalist is free to express his opinion on what is actually happening. We are not in Russia yet...
And thanks to democratic freedom of the press, there are also blogs that have a blunt view of things. And it is their duty to provide readers with the truth.
However, sometimes you can really argue about the harsh choice of words, but at least the author responds to criticism. Which shows that he also respects his readers... I hope
I'm an Austrian: we're a nation of natural born complainers (even more so if from Vienna) and I know nobody who has ever heard nor read 'such' books. ;-)
....while positivity is distributed, on daily basis, through actions like these:
Yes, Tom, you're right as always. The high command lives their own life and military units their own. The times have changed. In 2022 and 2023 some people feared about future and uncertainly. Today 2024 many people received warm and safe places and they completely forgot fear. I understand about "Faggot generals" without translation. No one of the Ukrainian generals is responsible for decisions. You can lose entire military units and accuse them of unprofessional behaviour.
Unfortunately army is an organisation with strong subordination and a subordinate person can't impact a chief.
Excuse me... "Faggot generals"?
Just a quote from several contacts in Ukraine.
Comrade Lenin said: Every cook can run the state. Since then, the favorite pastime of Soviet and post-Soviet people is to scold the government. Previously, this was done in kitchens and smoking rooms, now on social networks. Ask any (post)Soviet janitor - he has a solution to any problem, including those of universal scale. I recommend that Western analysts read Bulgakov's "Heart of a Dog" and only then evaluate information from the "lower ranks"
But if you invented a term for «cuddling orcs», maybe we should have another term for fagott general? I do believe fagott here is a derogatory term for homosexual, but they cannot be blamed for the generals mistakes? Oh well, its hard to find good swear words when being woke.,,
I find it highly fascinating 'you all' (at least a dozen of different readers) is complaining about the use of that expression today. Seems, 'nothing else matters'?
OK then, here my 'POV in that regards'...
I grew up in the 1970s and 1980s, when being a homosexual was like having a highly infectious disease ('at least AIDS', which was also known as 'pest for homosexuals') and thus widely frowned upon. Had 2-3 buddies that were homosexual: they were often ashamed of themselves, I couldn't care less and was protecting them from arseholes of all sorts, whenever necessary (was, several times also called 'homosexual' for protecting homosexual buddies).
I didn't care later on - say, in the 1990s - when being a homosexual was 'no crime' any more, 'but not good either'. I couldn't care less when homosexuality became 'something quasi normal' either. And I can't care less nowadays.
For me, it was that way 40 years ago, and it remains that way until today: whoever is or wants to be homosexal: fine, his/her private issues. I DO NOT CARE.
Arguably, I am a 'bit conservative', but that's 'relative', too: I simply do not understand people who - nowadays - 'must express' their homosexuality in the public. After all, I'm not running around and bragging with my heterosexuality, either: that's simply 'private business, period'.
I'm fed up of having it prescribed what words am I using and what not. I have never cared about somebody's sexuality, and don't know why should anybody else. Therefore, for me, that with 'Faggot Generals' is relative: it's in widespread use within the ZSU as 'executive summary'-type of description for idiocy and incompetence of their generals.
As such, it's absolutely not related to their sexuality.
While I perfectly understand that only a victim can say it's a victim, or not - I do not see why does anybody feel 'addressed' and 'disturbed'? It's in no means related to anybody's sexual orientation.
So, where's the problem then?
I do think there might be slightly more important issues to tackle. Otherwise, that with sexuality is going to become entirely irrelevant - and homosexuality is going to end verboten, again (like it is already in Russia, at least officially).
My short answer to those upset by the term is that "pidar" has as much to do with homosexuality as "motherfucker" does with mothers. That usually helps people understand. But maybe keep the original "pidarasy" in your writing so people unfamiliar with it don't get upset?
This is a good comparison. Surely you can see how fucking your mother is something seen by the society as very wrong. That's the point about "fagott" too, the term is derogatory, because homosexuality was seen as something bad as well.
And while I don't really mind it that much, I do think it would be better if the term went out of use, as it in general has been in the west.
I'm all for changing society for the better, however payoff-to-effort puts this issue on an extremely low priority. But I have no objections in principle.
Maybe these generals should start being called sheep who don't learn anything. That's what we call them, but pidar is more appropriate. Because their decisions get people killed and injured.
Thank you for pointing this out. We really can go beyond using hate-slurs.
Thanks for the update Tom, WTF is the wrong with the ZSU command/sector command system!!? When a commander accuses subordinate COs and their units of "defection" that is paranoid and murderous intent to harm/kill/slander the subordinate COs and the unit who disobeyed commands! Is the ZSU now having "no retreat guard units" behind the ZSU Bdes/frontlines?
There educational background not long ago is the same as the Russians one. The Russians introduced them again. Guess why.
Most likely this style of command and approach to war is not working without.
72nd Mech was in the process of rebuilding in the Kostiantynopolske area ? That's what, 15-20 km from the frontline ? That can't be right.
I've heard they were rotated out of combat but not let go home
I never heard of units being rested/rebuilt/reorganized so close from the frontline. Usually this happens way way further back.
'Welcome to Ukraine'....
If Syrsky can just carry on acting like this, then Zelensky either has the wrong or jaded advisors who could suggest that he should be removed but don't do it.
Zelensky may be the supreme commander, but he is simply not a military man who recognizes such mistakes. I am also sure that he doesn't have time for that because there are enough problems in the state that Zelensky still has to deal with. In the end, you can accuse him of making a lot of wrong decisions, but he can't be everywhere.
The guy is a comedian who was only elected because the Ukrainians wanted to get one over on the old government. So he slipped into this position unconventionally and now he has to command a defensive war against Russia, while also investigating and stopping corruption in the country, making flying visits abroad, keeping his people happy, commenting on and justifying every crappy idea and action of his government (ministers), etc...
I think that some of the criticism of him is completely exaggerated if you just put yourself in his shoes. I also think that he thinks about his wrong decisions every day and regrets them. He is in a very crappy position because, as president, he ultimately makes the final decision, has to take responsibility for everything, is constantly criticized, etc... Zelensky is a really poor bastard, with damn lousy advisors.
Another question. If Syrsky were to be deposed because of his wrong decisions, who would be considered as a successor who would not make these mistakes and would make the right decisions?
Totally agree.
Zelensky turns out to be no decisionmaker, no statesman, no strategist. Actually, he's nothing at all: just a populist. The only thing he can care about is his standing in the polls. That's why he's not ordering total mobilisation, for example: 'that's too unpopular'. Just like he's introducing no reforms in the governance, enabling the jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute corruption and incompetence etc. 'That's too unpopular', and therefore those accused of corruption and incompetence are appointed ambassadors instead of being prosecuted.
...while the country is facing a war of extermination...
...and Zelensky is then expecting the West to 'support all out' - although he is the principal reason why Ukraine is not fighting 'all out'?
Why should the West do his job for him?
Excuse me, what is your education and management experience?
Well Cadet, why are you asking? Such a question framed that way is rarely meant as a start to an accolade, rather an attempt to diskreditere the person you are asking about. So what is Toms background to his analysis? I havent seen you around here before, good with new people discussing. But what Tom has is 30 pluss years in analysing modern war. From middle east and Africa mostly. Now that includes analysing the leaders of the various nations and faction. He has interviewed, analyser dokuments and n general collected needed materiale for doing these analysis. Along the way he has written books on these conflicts. So he has both the experience, the empirical sources and the analytical Training to do what he does. I dont know a single thing about his Training, educational and managerial level. But he has the needed knowledge to do the analysis he does. Feel free to disagree. People here do. But do so a little more specifuc than asking such questions. They are only intended to discredit, it discredits you instead.
1. In order to give objective assessments of the actions of certain people, you need to have a similar education and similar experience. 2. Assessing wars after the fact is not the same as during military operations. 3. I have been here for a long time. I only attached my avatar yesterday.
In order to give assessment you need a similar education and experience? Bullshit. You need empirical data on what happened, you need a theory/model to analyse it and you need to be able to summarise your analysis logically, coherently and understandable. An education or a similar background might help you in that, but migh also skew your analysis. If you have been here and know Toms background, why is that question the one you are asking? Pointing out wrong or missing empirical data, faulty analysis etc is fine. But be specific, harping on education and experience is uninteresting and bad manners. Identifying faulty arguments is helpful.
Yes, of course, the analysis of military operations is available to any schoolchild... who knows why people study in military academies, and then go through all the stages of service to become a commander, when any janitor can do his job.
I came to the same conclusion when he dismissed Oleshchuk. Not that I find the later dismissing undeserved but lets be honest : as with every time Zelensky dismissed a top officier, it was not motivated by serious Indepth assessment of their records but just to manage the latest PR disaster caused by said officer. In Oleshchuk's case, it was managing to loose a F-16 on their first mission by friendly fire.
In fact it is depressing when you recall all the decisions Zelensky took after the battle for Kiyv : it always comes down to PR : Fortress Bakhmut, dismissing Zaluzhnyi when it could no longer be denied the oversold counter-offensive had been defeated and Zaluzhnyi himself admitted it, the Krinky affair which was an attempt to claim otherwise, the mobilization debacle, the Kurk operation which now feels like a Krinky 2.0, Oleshchuk's dismissal, etc. Not to talk about his ever increasing vain diplomatic campaign (security pact, peace plan, victory plan, etc). Even the long range drones campaign feels like a PR effort first which turned into a rare beneficial development.
A true populist indeed. And sadly nothing more.
F16 shot down by friendly fire? Do you have an investigation report? No? What an embarrassment...write more!
It feels like next year will be the defense of cities with millions of inhabitants: Dnipro and Kharkiv. There are no fortifications from Pavlograd to Pokrovsk, and those that are there are made as they are and are located incorrectly. But Zelensky decided to allocate 1000 UAH, it's just some kind of mockery. We have subdivisions without REB, transportation, ammunition, and he allocates 1000 hryvnias to civilians. Damn it, perhaps we really need to hold elections to remove these pests, even in the conditions of war. Fucking populists.
He is very likely fixing the imbalance caused by the inflation of the income of civilians vs relatively high income of the military engaged in combat. Such things kill the economy, and giving money for free is what is used to fix that. Compare to what the USA did to recover from the lockdown.
This is the third time that 1,000 hryvnias have been given out in this country, and in the present circumstances it looks pathetic. At a time when army levies are constantly being collected. This is like replacing memorial plaques in Selidovo and planting flowers in Pokrovsk. Given the scandals with the MCHK, prosecutor's office, unfinished fortifications, etc. This is just another populism. Although I am not surprised that Zelensky and company were elected for populism. So there is nothing to be surprised about....
Actually, even if Zelensky doesnt do his job I would argue the West should help. But we are not, at least not on a sufficient level.
Selensky is not a politician, but an actor. That's why he's good at selling things.
But, as I wrote above, I think that a large part of the problem is incompetent advisors and ministers. A president can't know everything and that's why he has advisors who are usually experts in their field. In the case of Selensky, however, most of his advisors are not experts, but buddies who have no idea what they're doing.
So his close colleagues and ministers should first be replaced with competent people who can give Selensky wise advice.
I think an election held now could put pro-Russian politicians in positions that are bad for the country. What idiot wants to be elected Ukrainian president and take on this merciless office... Klitschko, for example? Are there any alternatives that are good for Ukraine?
That's precisely right, his problem is his preference for loyalty over competence. When asked about replacing some of his friends he looks like he's about to bite whoever asked that.
Because he trusted his friends... In a country full of corruption, trust is more important than competence. After the election, when the country was in political ruins, I would have trusted friends rather than politicians or experts who would either hand you over to the Russians immediately if you turned your back on them or would take every last cent out of the pockets of a naked person.
Four years later, however, one would expect Selensky to realize that his buddy advisors and ministers are leading him into trouble because they have no idea. Dozens of ministers and high-ranking officials have been replaced in the meantime, but then the wrong people were put in place.
Although I think that no one is currently in a position to put the country on the right path because the entire political system is in tatters.
Two years ago, the EU gave Selensky tasks on how his country could one day become an EU candidate. Has he implemented any of these demands so far, or is he at least in the process of doing so? He says that corruption is decreasing, but in a country with less and less money, you can't have corruption.
Making a government out of your friends is a natural thing to, but it reliably ruins countries, organizations, armies and so on. Friendships don't survive either.
w.r.t EU demands, the changes are actually being implemented, I hear. So change is possible.
Total mobilization, you say? Then a few questions: 1. What to arm them with? 2. How to motivate them?
Let me explain: few people want to fight in Ukraine (even fewer in the West), this is a normal phenomenon for the present time. Putin is also afraid of mobilization and lures volunteers with huge payments. Those forcibly mobilized will surrender en masse, or even turn their weapons against those who give orders.
No more than 10-15% of the population are ready to defend their freedom, the rest are willing to live under any government.
10 percent, that's too optimistic. Probably only 1-2 percent of the conscripted men were left, because everyone went at will from the very beginning of the war. And this is a tiny fraction of 1 percent of the entire population of Ukraine. I live in Ukraine, and I do not understand who they want to mobilize, if more than 99 percent of the population, who are still at "freedom" categorically do not want to fight. No one in Ukraine has any illusions that if you go to war, you lose everything, you get nothing in return from the state - nothing, emptiness. Only death, destroyed health, grief and poverty for your family. These illusions, these dreams are only for those who never, under any circumstances, will never get into real combat. For example, all the commentators of this blog, including the head of this blog. And of course - all Ukrainians who have a good salary or "good contacts" among Ukrainian officials. All Ukrainian bureaucrats and officials also dream that the war would be eternal, with total mobilization. The author of this blog and commentators do not pay attention to the existing order of things in Ukraine, which lasts for 32 years. I assume that they think that a Citizen of Ukraine is some brainless unit from a computer game that dreams of becoming a cripple or dying.
Excuse me, but what is your education? Do you have experience as president and commander in chief?
To get that reply you would first have to prove your ability to judge my experiences.
If you read my comments, you would see that I never judge anyone. I just want to know about the competence of the people I read.
You are free to close this page and never return
This is too easy. I want to know if I should do this.
Maybe reading his books and blogs would help you to find your answers?
Don't you know you have to prove yourself to every rando who challenges you online? It's an intergalaxial law.
That's a false argument people in power use often to refuse any criticism. You do not to be a writer to be able to criticize a book, you do not need to be a president to be criticize presidents.
Unfortunately people do the same while being the victims of the elites' incompetence themselves. The proverbial crabs in a bucket. Oh how many times people did this to me to their own detriment.
There should be criticism. But criticism should not be unfounded. Many criticize Zelensky, but no one offers ways to eliminate the shortcomings.
There are concrete things Zelensky fails: e.g. defense sector is overbureaucratic and slowly reacts to changes. It build just bigger drones. Small drones are not funded by goverment, but people collect money for it and without FPVs is not possible to fight today. FPV distribution to units or any donated small stuff from UA or abroad has to go directly to verified units and commanders because when it goes through across distribution it's slow and may be stolen. Etc etc.
I know lot of this is still about soviet mindset and is very hard to uprooted, and Zelensky is not directly responsible. But he has to name the problems and show direction where to go, how to lead.
Small drones cannot be made without Chinese components, in particular electric motors and batteries. Heavy attack drones are essentially an airplane, Ukraine has an industrial base and specialists for this. Zelensky inherited corruption from the previous authorities, and it is not true that he does not fight it - arrests of officials are reported almost daily. This problem has been in the making for decades and cannot be solved in five minutes. By the way, the situation is not much better in the West, and even more so in the East.
Read my last paragraph. While Churchill made is war cabinet from different political from different parties and view to hear all voices from society https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill_war_ministry Zeliensky is enclosed by advisors sharing his view so is not able to (or do not want to) hear and address the critique. Then, even the army is not able to (or do not want to) hear and address the critique. And it prevents the problem (effective) resolution.
Of course, question is, whether there are some political leaders in Ukraine able act better. But it's not the reason to dismiss any critique as non-rightful.
Soviet minset!? I would understand if you wrote this 30 years ago, but now...Total or partial inefficience is a commoness around the globe as populists gaining power not only in politics but in industries, armies, and etc.
Thanks for confirming you can't differentiate criticism from critique.
Incorrect conclusion
Thank you Tom for realistic depiction of the situation and as well multitude of wake up calls along the last few months.
Irrespective of the way the situation is presented (sarcastic; upbeat; downbeat) - there is no reason of hiding actual deficiencies and not to act on them. The thing that I sorrowly miss is what are the actions being taken by Ukraine. And this is in fact the most worrisome signal. Thus when you titled one of your review "Car-crash in slow motion", even prior opening it, I've realized that my fears are getting more foundation.
I do want Ukraine to win or at least to stop the murderous russian regime. I will support and actively supporting Ukraine through my available means. But it will become harder and harder mentally if no clear visible actions are taken by Ukrainan government. It is impossible to rely all the time on heroic work of the soldiers on the Frontline.
As somebody mentioned in a different blog - if everything works well, you don't need heroes.
Here I constantly see demands to change commanders, literally: “you need to constantly change people until a competent one is found,” and today I see criticism that they are changed too often.
Surely the reason for the change of commanders is relevant? Change of commanders due to their mistakes vs change of commanders due to the Generals mistakes?
Where is the guarantee that it was the general who made the mistake, and not his subordinate? Drawing conclusions based on chatter on social networks is not serious. Assessments are made after the war, based on documents. And even in this there is no guarantee of objectivity.
Do you have first hand experience in after-war assessing of war time procedures, that negate assessments made during the war?
I do not give any assessments, because I am not an expert in this topic. I wish the same for others... It is simply amazing how many great strategists there are here.
Are these lower level commanders incompetent? Did they hide information and create large losses for their units?
Let's see Sirsky:
- Never retreats. Removes any commander who orders a retreat or doesn't punish a retreat.
- Has no bad info for the president or the public. The Russians are not advancing and Ukrainian commanders are not retreating and they are not punished.
- Has no victory plan. Nobody knows how he will stop the Russians. Everybody should keep their trenches and not retreat.
How do you know what orders Syrsky gives, what he reports to Zelensky, and what his plans are for the future? Do you understand that this is not information that is in the public domain?
What are the orders given by Sirski: Vuhledar. No retreat and dismissal of brigade commander.
What Sirski reports to Zelenski: the front holds and there is no need for emergency measures. Zelenski started to talk about negociations only after the failed Ramstein meeting.
What are Sirski plans: to hold the frontline and not retreat.
He could trade land and increase the quality of Ukrainian units.
He could insist for a massive mobilisation and trade Ukrainian casualties for Russian casualties.
He could use Budanov special forces to infiltrate Russia and start an actual partisan warfare în southern Ukraine.
For a partisan war to take place, the front lines would first have to be dissolved and Russia would have to be satisfied with what they have. But that is not the case...
Tell me, did Syrsky show you his orders? And were you personally present when Syrsky reported to Zelensky?... Guerrilla warfare, you say? At least master the terminology of who the partisans are, Mr. Great Strategist.
Sirski has shown the Vuhledar orders for everybody to see.
Guerilla is not used in Eastern Europe. Partisan is more frequent here. Belarussian partisans or Yougoslav partisans.
Where are these orders from Syrsky? I want to see the documents!
Partisans are citizens of the occupied country who are fighting against the occupiers. They operate at home and with the support of the population.
This war is being waged by Ukrainian patriots in the occupied territories, they are collecting intelligence and eliminating collaborators.
What you are proposing is called a sabotage war. I believe that this is impossible under the given conditions: in a densely populated area, with the availability of modern means of communication, sabotage groups will be very quickly identified and destroyed.
Ох уж ці негідники із 95, ти диви як не чемно вони себе поводять.
Дай бог їм здоров'я, побільше набоїв та леопардів з абрамсами!
Sorry, Tom, your explanation of misfortunes of 210th TD bat doesn't match the contentent of the source you provided. The source states 210th was fighting for weeks w/o receiving appropriate support resulting in 11 KIA and 70 WIA. Another bat collapsed on the flank resulting in partial encirclement. 210th fled (retreated, withdraw w/o order) to Pokrovsk. Brigade CO ordered them to return to their positions in Hirnik, some did, since then 1 MIA. Look, if this is a war of extermination, as you said, troops should stay and die if orders require, not discussing them, and if consensus is not found ;))) go where they like for safety. I think the next development should be election of officers then C-n-C ))
It doesn't, because I've 'spiced' mine with few additional details from a contact.
Thank you for clarifying. You mentioned that 59th Mech troops refused the order to counter - this is certainly an extra spice.
Huh.. even a brilliant sarcasm can’t hide the tragical consequences on the field…
Plan for defeat:
1. For mad money we are engaged in landscaping parks, mow lawns somewhere in Donetsk region, preferably 5-10-20-30 km from the front, but in no case let the same mad money to help and provide for their own military units, which are located in this or that community, let the volunteers do the provision, they von 50 000 - 60 000 UAH. a month collect, it should be enough;
2. Instead of a competent information policy and media support of recruiting campaigns of each brigade, which are directly on the first line of the front - we fill the cities with bigboards with our cute face with the thesis a la “We live here”. and let TCC deal with brigades staffing according to the same scheme as before, it is the same working and provides maximum quality resources for these brigades, while declaring that “the topic of recruiting is a failure” and it is not able to fully meet the needs of brigades (have you done a fucking thing to develop this very recruiting?);
3. no responsibility for corrupt officials, including those who directly affect the provision of these very brigades, for memes and pictures we detain individuals with tons of bucks “on the crib”, and then publicly declare, “we can't change the legislation, so there will be no responsibility as such”, and in general, what are you lackeys indignant about, well, everyone's getting fucked up, everyone's out on bail and whatever;
4. We first form requirements to everyone in the world and claims, we form nothing to ourselves - everything is fine, everything is perfect, especially when in the hottest phase of the change of brigade commanders in some key brigades for whatever fucking reason, and then we stomp our feet and shout at the naradas, but what went wrong?!
5. We do not deal with internal financial disappearances, we do not shake customs and entire schemes of theft in different echelons of power, in order to use the stolen money for example to pay the GPO or to strengthen the regions, and then loudly declare that people “for some reason” return to their frontline homes and homes in the occupation. Similarly with the previous point - we loudly stomp our feet, declare, but do nothing;
6. We continue to air all kinds of “experts” who prophesize that prices will rise. which prophesize the increase of prices for light, gas, water and air, and at the same time we raise taxes, while in no case we do not deal with point number 5 and do not explain to the people what we plan or do not plan, and how the “top of light, gas and water” have more wealth than some villages put together;
and now compare these points with the ones you've been reading.
for now - which plan are we following more?
moral: if you don't want to win (or if you want to, but don't want to make drastic decisions to achieve the goal), what is the point of making ordinary people believe in it?
This from Nikolaev Vanek?
The fellow usually is very seldomly complaining. And if he writes then it means is boiling even for him
All this is well known, the problem exists, no one argues. The corruption system was built for many decades and it is impossible to break it in a couple of years. Firstly, the fighters themselves are corrupt, secondly - where to find so many honest and competent people to replace the corrupt? The Chinese have been fighting this for decades, but even executions do not help.
Thanks for the update. I am glad for some good news. The buddies in Kiev behaves like expected unfortunately. But thankfully as you say, why should the Russians have better leadership? Another good thing. However, while your analysis of both Syrsky, Gen Stab U and Zelensky seems reasonable when you read them I cant help but notice that Stephen korshansky of the Kiev Post are more optimistic and less critical than you. (Total agreement on US politics). I think it is possible to read the situation differently, having said that I urge you to continue providing your analysis as you read the situation.
My pleasure.
Re. Stefan: he has his contacts and conclusions, and his way of describing and expressing things, I've got mine.
And for those thinking I'm too harsh, please check this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0ZljdsOlIw
and this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMNB75UqAp4
Be as harsh as you wish. If you end up with that conclusion based on your analysis, fair enough. My approach to understanding is reading several people stories. Some are more optimistic than you. Thats ok too. As long as people tell whatever they think is true. Often several agree and I feel more confident in understanding.
"he would never issue an order for a unit to withdraw because that would be bad news"
In addition, there is no such option as preemptive withdrowal in our Field Manual. Even to start planning a withdrowal - any Ukrainian commander needs to wait until his troops are in full encirclement.
I see Stalinist and Hitlerian demands to never retreat. I see UA command chaos. I see a government very poor in organization and not seriously concerned with all the above, but very good at PR. I think I see and hear echoes of the Spanish Republic in its war with Fascism.
Thank you Tom for the continued and honest updates
I realize that your emphasis is on being sarcastic and highlighting failures. I do want to point out that courage, determination and a positive outlook are all as contagious as pessimism. I applaud those who can be an encouragement to others.
In a time of war and loss, those who can be an encouragement to others are precious. Have you ever read Viktor Frankl's book, Man's Search for Meaning? It is a powerful statement of seeking the positive, building courage, and sharing kindness. It is Frankl's experience while in a Nazi concentration camp. I highly recommend it.
It is not the job of a foreign journalist to motivate the people in the country or to give them positive encouragement. However, every journalist is free to express his opinion on what is actually happening. We are not in Russia yet...
And thanks to democratic freedom of the press, there are also blogs that have a blunt view of things. And it is their duty to provide readers with the truth.
However, sometimes you can really argue about the harsh choice of words, but at least the author responds to criticism. Which shows that he also respects his readers... I hope
Thanks for advice, Leanna.
I'm an Austrian: we're a nation of natural born complainers (even more so if from Vienna) and I know nobody who has ever heard nor read 'such' books. ;-)
....while positivity is distributed, on daily basis, through actions like these:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-150553371
Yes, Tom, you're right as always. The high command lives their own life and military units their own. The times have changed. In 2022 and 2023 some people feared about future and uncertainly. Today 2024 many people received warm and safe places and they completely forgot fear. I understand about "Faggot generals" without translation. No one of the Ukrainian generals is responsible for decisions. You can lose entire military units and accuse them of unprofessional behaviour.
Unfortunately army is an organisation with strong subordination and a subordinate person can't impact a chief.
Must admit, Ukrainian leadership hasn’t gotten better. We are about to see if the USA leadership improves.