Ukraine War, 27 October 2024: I.W.S.F.
Hello everybody!
Can’t but start this one with ‘stealing’ nicks created by a contact in Ukraine.
Correspondingly, there’s a General of Good News (Syrsky) and President of Wonderful News (Zelensky) in charge of Ukraine. And the two have continued doing their best, the last 24 hours: one has managed to further increase the chaos within ranks of the ZSU he’s diligently creating since February this year; the other has left his second best general of all the times continue wreaking havoc with the ZSU, because he’s got so many wonderful news to babble about in the social media and on yet another press conference…
…where I do not understand why is that with Zelensky’s press conferences reminding me of the former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (forced to quit amid a major corruption scandal and meanwhile working for Google). Perhaps because he woke up in the morning and… promptly organised a press conference about waking up in the morning! Going for his morning loo? Press conference about his pile of good morning b.m.! Having a breakfast? Isn’t that worth another press conference…?
But, OK. Because lower-ranking ZSU commanders and the mass of troops continue fighting as well as they do, no matter how much are their (quote from another contact) ‘faggot generals’ screwing up, there are good news to start with.
For example in the Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation, where, because the greatest strategist of all the times - your bellowed Pudding - declared that 2,000+ Ukrainian troops in the Kursk Oblast are all encircled and about to be destroyed, the VDV launched additional assaults from the north (from Sheptukhovka) and from north-west (Korenevo).
Alas, a rogue, mis-behaving battalion of pesky Ukrainian militants from the 95th Assault came in between, repelled both and then launched a counterattack that overrun… sigh… battered remnants of the 155th NIB.
Yes, again… but, really: it’s neither the fault of the 95th, nor mine if whenever the VDV runs away, the FSB general in command of the Russian forces in Kursk puts the 155th NIB in the harms’s way. So often, that so little is left of that Russian brigade that while recapturing hills along the northern and eastern side of the road from Sudza towards Korenevo, and then pushing west into the fields north of Liubimirovka and north towards Kremyanoe, the 95th Assault overran the second and the third Russian line, too. And, well, after 2,5 years of this fracas, one should know what is expecting the Ukrainians when they punch through to the second, or even the third line of the Russian positions. That’s where the Akhmat Super-Special Forces are! And, so the 95th Run into some Akhmats and trounced them as well.
Few clicks south, battalions from the 41st and 47th Mech, 33rd Assault Battalion and the 501st Naval Infantry Battalion didn’t manage to recover Novoivanovka, but did manage to repel four fierce Russian attacks on Tolstyi Lug and Pokrovski.
***
That, however, is where good news are going to end for this update - principally because over the last 36-48 hours, Russian advances in multiple sectors have, once again, exposed all the….ahem… brilliance of the General of Good News.
….which reminds me that I owe you an explanation for that ‘I.W.S.F./IWSF’ in the title of this update.
That’s an abbreviation for, ‘it wasn’t Syrsky’s fault’.
In the Kupyansk-Svatove area…it cannot be denied that Syrsky has found a cool match in form of the command of the VSRF Group Zapad and the 1st Guards Tanks Army and…. well, who has said the top Russian commanders must be any better than the top Ukrainian commander?
And so, after failing to get through the former 2nd line of defence of the ‘wasn’t there’ 77th Airborne Brigade, the Russians turned around and assaulted positions of the 115th Mech from the south (i.e. from Kruhlyakvika) and from the east (i.e. from somewhere east of Tabaivka area in direction of Hlushkivka). Bottom line: yes, now the General of Good News has really got enough time to patch up this sector of the frontline with yet additional battalions…
…all provided he can find any, because some 20km further south, the VSRF has also pushed the 67th Mech out of Nevske and Novosadove so hard, the ZSU had to react with a (rare) counterattack of the 4th Tank Brigade…
Simply beautiful. If Syrsky goes on like this for few weeks longer, the Russians are certainly going to recover all the terrain they’ve lost during the famous Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Kharkiv of September-October 2022…
***
Meanwhile at least it became clear what happened to the 15th NG in Selydove: essentially, and exactly as ‘announced’ about two weeks ago, the Russians have punched through south of the town, and entered Vyshneve. To the luck of the 15th NG, they weren’t as successful north of Selydove: nevertheless, they have managed to advance along the E50 highway far enough to the west to have a fire-control over the road connecting Selydove with Pokrovsk. With this, no supplies can reach the 15th NG and the brigade was left without a choice but to start withdrawing from the town.
Arguably, it might take some 2-3 days (or longer) for corresponding videos to get released by the Russians, and for the Ukrainian rear guards to extricate themselves back to Hryhorivka, but: essentially, with the Russian 71st Spetsnaz Battalion, and the 110th and 114th Motor-Rifle Brigades securing the Korotchenka Mine (plus Oleksandropil and Hirnyk, further south) yesterday, the battle for Selydove is over.
Once again the same, usual lesson, which is never going to be learned by the Buddies: it doesn’t matter how well are the Ukrainian troops inside one or another place of the Russian interest fighting - if their top commanders can’t arrange proper defences of their flanks. Whenever the supply links to the garrison are then cut off, the garrison is running out of ammo and food, and - just like in Bakhmut, or in Avdiivka, or in Vuhledar - the troops inside (what’s left of) the town then have no other solutions but to withdraw. Of course, they’re always left to do so on orders from their own commanders, never on Syrsky’s orders, though: he would never issue an order for a unit to withdraw because that would be bad news…
…and the commanders who issue such orders are then punished, and either dismissed or ordered into pointless counterattacks to ‘recover former positions’…
***
…which is the essence of the reason for the ZSU losing Hirnyk, too.
In that place, decisive was the story of the 210th TD Battalion, which used to defend Hirnyk. Now, and as one can read here, as long as the 210th was doing so in cooperation with the 59th Motorised Brigade, everything was fine. But, then the 59th was rotated out and replaced by the 110th Mech. And the HQ of the 110th Mech couldn’t care less about the 210th.
Unsurprisingly, the unit was encircled and had to extricate itself on its own, resulting in 11 KIA and 70 WIA…
Pay attention: the 210th was still in the process of breaking out of encirclement and withdrawing when the command of the 110th began accusing it of ‘defection’ and, eventually, ordered its troops to counterattack and recover their positions.
….what a surprise they refused…
***
Syrsky’s biggest success, though, remains the defence of south-eastern Zaporizhzhya and south-western Donets. Say, the stretch of the frontline from Velyka Novosilka, via Novoukrainka, Bogoyavlenka, to Yelzavetivka. There, he’s so masterfully patched up the sector between Velkya Novosilka and Novoukrainka with elements of battalions from some three or four different brigades that when the 131st Motor-Rifle Regiment of the VSRF attacked from the south, it nearly drove all the way to Shakhtarske.
What a shame, Syrsky’s masteful plan was then spoiled by a battalion of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade. This - once proud unit, meanwhile cut to pieces so the Buddies can create several new brigades - has held out for long enough for the 72nd Mech - which was in the process of re-building in the Kostiantynopolske area (with help of, between others, a generator, two re-chargers, and two heaters financed by your donations) - to rush to the frontline, counterattack, and push the Russians few kilometres back… Therefore, the VSRF turned around and launched a new assault, this time on Novoukrainka.
AFAIK, this is defended by half a battalion from the 123rd TD Brigade… and that battle is still going on…
But hey: actually, and as summarised by IWSF, it’s more than obvious that it’s entirely unfair to blame Syrsky. Really. Firstly, the General of Good News is continuously micromanaging everything that’s going on, no matter where along the frontline. Therefore, if something goes wrong, it’s not him to blame. And, secondly, the last 36-48 hours he was simply too busy to care about Russian assaults. Yes, too busy - with dismissing the 7th commander of the same brigade in succession. How clever from him: this is not just another confirmation for all the brilliance of 6 of his earlier decisions (in that, one case), but just imagine the chaos within the chain of command of a brigade that had 7 of its commanders fired in something like 4-5 months…
Have no doubts: that’s all a part of Syrsky’s newest strategy, of course: yes, the one throwing all of the ZSU into a complete chaos, thus confusing the Keystone Cops in Moscow, too… Actually, everything’s nice and fine, and couldn’t get any better, and if not, that’s going to be investigated. ‘After the war’…
Thank you Tom for realistic depiction of the situation and as well multitude of wake up calls along the last few months.
Irrespective of the way the situation is presented (sarcastic; upbeat; downbeat) - there is no reason of hiding actual deficiencies and not to act on them. The thing that I sorrowly miss is what are the actions being taken by Ukraine. And this is in fact the most worrisome signal. Thus when you titled one of your review "Car-crash in slow motion", even prior opening it, I've realized that my fears are getting more foundation.
I do want Ukraine to win or at least to stop the murderous russian regime. I will support and actively supporting Ukraine through my available means. But it will become harder and harder mentally if no clear visible actions are taken by Ukrainan government. It is impossible to rely all the time on heroic work of the soldiers on the Frontline.
As somebody mentioned in a different blog - if everything works well, you don't need heroes.
Plan for defeat:
1. For mad money we are engaged in landscaping parks, mow lawns somewhere in Donetsk region, preferably 5-10-20-30 km from the front, but in no case let the same mad money to help and provide for their own military units, which are located in this or that community, let the volunteers do the provision, they von 50 000 - 60 000 UAH. a month collect, it should be enough;
2. Instead of a competent information policy and media support of recruiting campaigns of each brigade, which are directly on the first line of the front - we fill the cities with bigboards with our cute face with the thesis a la “We live here”. and let TCC deal with brigades staffing according to the same scheme as before, it is the same working and provides maximum quality resources for these brigades, while declaring that “the topic of recruiting is a failure” and it is not able to fully meet the needs of brigades (have you done a fucking thing to develop this very recruiting?);
3. no responsibility for corrupt officials, including those who directly affect the provision of these very brigades, for memes and pictures we detain individuals with tons of bucks “on the crib”, and then publicly declare, “we can't change the legislation, so there will be no responsibility as such”, and in general, what are you lackeys indignant about, well, everyone's getting fucked up, everyone's out on bail and whatever;
4. We first form requirements to everyone in the world and claims, we form nothing to ourselves - everything is fine, everything is perfect, especially when in the hottest phase of the change of brigade commanders in some key brigades for whatever fucking reason, and then we stomp our feet and shout at the naradas, but what went wrong?!
5. We do not deal with internal financial disappearances, we do not shake customs and entire schemes of theft in different echelons of power, in order to use the stolen money for example to pay the GPO or to strengthen the regions, and then loudly declare that people “for some reason” return to their frontline homes and homes in the occupation. Similarly with the previous point - we loudly stomp our feet, declare, but do nothing;
6. We continue to air all kinds of “experts” who prophesize that prices will rise. which prophesize the increase of prices for light, gas, water and air, and at the same time we raise taxes, while in no case we do not deal with point number 5 and do not explain to the people what we plan or do not plan, and how the “top of light, gas and water” have more wealth than some villages put together;
and now compare these points with the ones you've been reading.
for now - which plan are we following more?
moral: if you don't want to win (or if you want to, but don't want to make drastic decisions to achieve the goal), what is the point of making ordinary people believe in it?