Hello everybody! A short one, focusing almost entirely on Bakhmut. AIR WAR During the night from 25 to 26 April, the Russians attacked the area of Kherson (City) with a stream of Shahid-131/136 LPGMs, Lancet and Merlin UCAVs. Ukrainians claimed at least one Shahid, five Lancets, and one Merlin as shot down. Yesterday, the Russians also released a video shown a hit on one of only a few 9K330 Tor M1s (SA-15 Gauntlet) operated by the PSU (sorry, can’t find the link right now).
Hundreds of TOS-1s!? I’m not sure the Russians have that many and if true, the areas under Ukrainian control would have been burnt to ground. Anyway, the situation is dire but I hear that the Russians are actually focused on trying to finally get Khromovo under control and cut that road.
Informations about Mykolaiv and what was hit by Kalibr here: Антон Глушко FB pagehttps://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0B8Fm6fR8BSso1ra5SzVi5G1VLzoE2SExA7srAN9GjNr3F7SL99mJ5HpEE27xn5zhl&id=100011171342589 If something elsa was hit I dont know.
About the missile strikes, the Patriot a d IRIS-T are not working? If lots of missiles pass trough, AD net close to frontline is depleted or not working.
It's technically possible to adapt radar guided western missiles to the soviet-origin sistems of the PSU/ZSU? Like Aspide or Sparrow missiles?
Thank you Tom for objectiveness. West bought russian goods on 2.4 trillions $ during 9 years of this war. This is enough to kill ALL ukrainians. Do i need to write calculations here? And provided russian military industry with ALL what it needed. If you not agree - please enumerate here What Moscow wanted and did not get. West impose weapon embargo on Ukraine during 8 years. Ukraine got from USA 0 weapon for this 8 years. USA invested in Ukraine 0$ during 30 years, compare with Moscow empire and China. Which were declared as principal enemies. 30% of ukrainian budget revenue were spent on % for western credits, and now 60%, but debt higher and higher. West damaged Ukraine economic by quotas and high taxes on ukrainian goods. And NO such on russian goods. And now banned import ukrainian wheat, corn and others to several EU countries. West destroyed 2000+ ukrainian tanks and huge amount other weapons, and nuclear weapon. So West did ALL for quick and complete Ukraine destruction. With millions casualties. But plans failed.
West want make money as partner with russian fascists. 600+ billions $ western investments are blocked in Moscow empire. West want from Ukraine quick capitulation - Minsk 3, and make money as usual. This is one of the reason why West not confiscate bloody russian money. Recently putin not only blocked but gave some Unipro property to temporary aaaa management of russian government. USA already made business with Stalin and Hitler. And we know the result.............
USA became the World hegemon. West destroyed 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs. So NOW 0 countries will refuse have nuclear weapon. More and more countries will have more and more nuclear bombs. This is a matter of time ONLY, say 10-30 years and such lovely organisations like ISIS will get thermonuclear bombs. IF you have a business with Evil - result .... the same.
Is there any visual confirmation of the S-25L? (the laser guided version on the S-25 rocket) The picture you included in your last post was of an unguided S-25, likely a S-25-0 from the head of the rocket.
Regarding Iran's ammo shipment: The contract prices given are extremely low (e.g. 74,000 artillery shells for $1.7 million), unless referring to mortar rounds surely.
Something that may have complicated the battle for both sides is that, contradicting the advance weather forecasts I saw, April turned out to produce near-constant rain in the area, thus limiting Ukraine's capacity to carry out phased withdrawal. But likely in part for the same reason, the Russians focused on grinding UFOR out of Bakhmut frontally instead of closing the encirclement, which was the most convenient approach for UFOR since it helped buy more time around the flanks.
April 2023 has probably been the muddiest month of the war so far, way more than Spring/Fall '22.
It seems the rain is expected to continue well into May...
The Russians are trying to seize Bakhmut before the weather breaks and Ukrain launches its counteroffensive. I suspect the Ukrainians are holding back reserves and munitions from the Bakhmut front to ready for the spring counteroffensive; the Russians know this is their best chance to finally complete their campaign there. IMHO
Dear Tom, in your recent reports about the air war you stated the increase of russian air operations in the theater, both through air-ground attacks, air patrols or electronic warfare flights. So, some of the models that the russians use are already quite old, right? And to my very questionable knowledge russian air planes may not have the life span or flight hour limit of comparable western designs. Mig-31 comes into mind. On the other hand russian/soviet air planes are much cheaper in production, so there is a trade off, especially if you work under the assessment that in a WW3 environment no airplane would live to see its life span.
Okay, the question: to your assessment, do you see a point in the foreseeable future when russian air power declines even if Ukraine is not able to wear them down by own actions? I don't know if some of the factories that produced the russian planes decades ago are still able to refit worn out planes, let alone produce new planes?
is showing destroying 2 5P85S launchers: at least 2 Lancet UAVs and 1 UAV observing. Is is so hard to protect precious stuff with some MANPADs, mobile anti-aircraft guns etc.? (It's possible more UAVs were involved and some of them destroyed, it's not possible to see from these videos.)
Hundreds of TOS-1s!? I’m not sure the Russians have that many and if true, the areas under Ukrainian control would have been burnt to ground. Anyway, the situation is dire but I hear that the Russians are actually focused on trying to finally get Khromovo under control and cut that road.
And I just noticed that Khromovo was not mentioned in the report by the ZSU today which means that the assault is ongoing
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1651261066041597958 that video of a UA Army TOR ADF hit by Lancet
Informations about Mykolaiv and what was hit by Kalibr here: Антон Глушко FB pagehttps://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0B8Fm6fR8BSso1ra5SzVi5G1VLzoE2SExA7srAN9GjNr3F7SL99mJ5HpEE27xn5zhl&id=100011171342589 If something elsa was hit I dont know.
Thanks as always, Tom.
About the missile strikes, the Patriot a d IRIS-T are not working? If lots of missiles pass trough, AD net close to frontline is depleted or not working.
It's technically possible to adapt radar guided western missiles to the soviet-origin sistems of the PSU/ZSU? Like Aspide or Sparrow missiles?
Tom, just found this article wrote by an Indican retired Pilot about the tactics of the VKS. What do you think?
https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-adopts-new-offensive-tactics-to-decimate-ukrainian/?amp
Tom, do you have any estimates about the daily losses of ZSU in Bakhmut?
Thanks!
Thank you Tom for objectiveness. West bought russian goods on 2.4 trillions $ during 9 years of this war. This is enough to kill ALL ukrainians. Do i need to write calculations here? And provided russian military industry with ALL what it needed. If you not agree - please enumerate here What Moscow wanted and did not get. West impose weapon embargo on Ukraine during 8 years. Ukraine got from USA 0 weapon for this 8 years. USA invested in Ukraine 0$ during 30 years, compare with Moscow empire and China. Which were declared as principal enemies. 30% of ukrainian budget revenue were spent on % for western credits, and now 60%, but debt higher and higher. West damaged Ukraine economic by quotas and high taxes on ukrainian goods. And NO such on russian goods. And now banned import ukrainian wheat, corn and others to several EU countries. West destroyed 2000+ ukrainian tanks and huge amount other weapons, and nuclear weapon. So West did ALL for quick and complete Ukraine destruction. With millions casualties. But plans failed.
West want make money as partner with russian fascists. 600+ billions $ western investments are blocked in Moscow empire. West want from Ukraine quick capitulation - Minsk 3, and make money as usual. This is one of the reason why West not confiscate bloody russian money. Recently putin not only blocked but gave some Unipro property to temporary aaaa management of russian government. USA already made business with Stalin and Hitler. And we know the result.............
USA became the World hegemon. West destroyed 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs. So NOW 0 countries will refuse have nuclear weapon. More and more countries will have more and more nuclear bombs. This is a matter of time ONLY, say 10-30 years and such lovely organisations like ISIS will get thermonuclear bombs. IF you have a business with Evil - result .... the same.
Is there any visual confirmation of the S-25L? (the laser guided version on the S-25 rocket) The picture you included in your last post was of an unguided S-25, likely a S-25-0 from the head of the rocket.
Regarding Iran's ammo shipment: The contract prices given are extremely low (e.g. 74,000 artillery shells for $1.7 million), unless referring to mortar rounds surely.
Edit: Could be 100mm.
Something that may have complicated the battle for both sides is that, contradicting the advance weather forecasts I saw, April turned out to produce near-constant rain in the area, thus limiting Ukraine's capacity to carry out phased withdrawal. But likely in part for the same reason, the Russians focused on grinding UFOR out of Bakhmut frontally instead of closing the encirclement, which was the most convenient approach for UFOR since it helped buy more time around the flanks.
April 2023 has probably been the muddiest month of the war so far, way more than Spring/Fall '22.
It seems the rain is expected to continue well into May...
The Russians are trying to seize Bakhmut before the weather breaks and Ukrain launches its counteroffensive. I suspect the Ukrainians are holding back reserves and munitions from the Bakhmut front to ready for the spring counteroffensive; the Russians know this is their best chance to finally complete their campaign there. IMHO
Dear Tom, in your recent reports about the air war you stated the increase of russian air operations in the theater, both through air-ground attacks, air patrols or electronic warfare flights. So, some of the models that the russians use are already quite old, right? And to my very questionable knowledge russian air planes may not have the life span or flight hour limit of comparable western designs. Mig-31 comes into mind. On the other hand russian/soviet air planes are much cheaper in production, so there is a trade off, especially if you work under the assessment that in a WW3 environment no airplane would live to see its life span.
Okay, the question: to your assessment, do you see a point in the foreseeable future when russian air power declines even if Ukraine is not able to wear them down by own actions? I don't know if some of the factories that produced the russian planes decades ago are still able to refit worn out planes, let alone produce new planes?
Have a nice day!
Thank you
UAWeapons has published several Lancet attacks on ZSU AD vehicles. E.g. this one
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1651607986719129603
is showing destroying 2 5P85S launchers: at least 2 Lancet UAVs and 1 UAV observing. Is is so hard to protect precious stuff with some MANPADs, mobile anti-aircraft guns etc.? (It's possible more UAVs were involved and some of them destroyed, it's not possible to see from these videos.)