Ukraine War, 27 April 2023

Hello everybody!

A short one, focusing almost entirely on Bakhmut.

AIR WAR

During the night from 25 to 26 April, the Russians attacked the area of Kherson (City) with a stream of Shahid-131/136 LPGMs, Lancet and Merlin UCAVs. Ukrainians claimed at least one Shahid, five Lancets, and one Merlin as shot down.  Yesterday, the Russians also released a video shown a hit on one of only a few 9K330 Tor M1s (SA-15 Gauntlet) operated by the PSU (sorry, can’t find the link right now).

The last night, the Russians attacked the Mykolaiv area using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. Ukrainians report one killed and 23 wounded: means, air defences were penetrated and something was hit there.

Tactical aviation of the VKS is almost entirely focused on the Bakhmut area, the last few days. In turn, the PSU should have lost another Su-25 fighter-bomber, though this time in the Kherson area (and that, apparently, on 25 April).

BAKHMUT

Since 24-25 April, the Russians are running an ‘all out’ attack. It’s like Popasana one year ago: sustained strikes by thousands of shells from tube artillery, by thousands of artillery rockets from all types of multiple rocket launchers, and by hundreds of TOS-1s-rounds (which, as far as I can gauge, are by far one of most murderous weapons deployed by the VSRF); air strikes by Su-25s using S-8 unguided rockets calibre 80mm in ‘spray and pray’ fashion by day; Su-25s deploying S-25T guided rockets and Su-34s using glide bombs by night. The barrage is run ‘around the clock’, in systematic and sustained fashion.

These are followed by continuous ground attacks: usually, platoon-sized assault groups, sent in one after the other, again and again, by day and by night. Here a related report by Colonel Roman Hryshenko, CO 127^th TD Brigade.

The result is unavoidable. On the northern side, they have pushed Ukrainians out of the ‘Garages’ and back to the Children’s Hospital and the Vyzvolyteliv Donbasu Street. In the centre, they have taken the area north of the Bakhmut Medical College (and that much quicker than expected). Indeed, south of the College, they have reached the Chaykovskoga Street.

The Russians are also pushing very hard against positions of the 3^rd Assault and the 92^nd Mech along the Road 0506 in the Hromove area.

At least gauging by reporting by the WSJ, much of ammunition expended for this attack might be from Iran, which should have shipped up to 300,000 shells to Russia, the last two months.

Bottom line, this is looking like the ‘beginning of the end’ of the Battle of Bakhmut, and yes: it does appear that Putin and Gerasimov have decided to ‘win’ the ruins of this town by the 9 May Red Square military parade – as some in Ukraine say.