In the summer of 2022 it was clear that Russia wouldn't make any more major advances. From the fall or '22 through the spring of '23, it was clear they were losing more equipment than Ukraine and at an unsustainable rate. Russia has a huge pool of manpower, but they were losing experienced/trained personnel and replacing them with unexperienced and untrained personnel. From May until now, the rate of equipment loss trended up to even higher rates. The more equipment they lose, the easier it is to destroy more equipment.
On the Ukrainian side, there have been losses, too, but at much lower rates. While Russian units are losing experience and training due to their high losses, Ukrainian units have been gaining experience through their low losses. The more experienced the Ukrainian units are, the lower their losses and the easier it is to kill Russians.
Unless something changes, the Russian army will eventually be so degraded, even mobilized replacements will not be able to hold back the experienced Ukrainian army. Then we'll see a new phase of the war and the territorial gains will happen.
I hope you are right. Soviet army (called Red Army at the time) suffered horrible losses in regular army in 1941 while exchanging territory and blood for time. That allowed them to rebuild. I believe pootin is replicating the same strategy, in hope that the West would get tired and Ukraine would loos ability to restock.
There are a few distinctions between the Soviet experience in WW2 and now. The Soviets were able to produce large quantities of contemporary equipment and were greatly aided by allied supplies. The Russians can no longer produce military quality steel for artillery barrels and are using barrels from vehicles in storage. They are alslosingo refurbishing old vehicles from storage. At some point they will run out of old vehicles.
Also, as the war progressed, the combat power of Soviet units increased with experience and a generally higher quality of leadership as the years went by. The Russians are losing their experienced troops and their leadership is suffering heavy losses.
Morale also seemed to improve as the war progressed for the Soviets whereas morale seems to be quite low in Russian units across the battlefield. That will have an impact on the battlefield.
The army Russian is rebuilding now does not have the same capabilities as the army that crossed the Ukrainian border.
There are more then one distinction. And I hope you are right.
One big distinction is that current ruzzia does not have Ukrainians fighting in the same army. Even in Soviet Army Ukrainians (not ethnically - rather people from Ukraine) constituted significant proportion of middle and senior officers.
However - SU lost ENTIRE standing army (alongside with officer corp) in the first months of nazi invasion. SU was throwing bodies on nazis for a year - until industry picked up and managed to produce enough equipment to keep enough soldiers and officers alive to get better.
However - the biggest difference between SU and RU is that ruzzia maintains negative selection in military leadership while Stalin switched to positive after the first couple of weeks of war.
1941 the Russians were highly motivated to defend their homeland against a brutal invader. In this war the Russians don't really know what they are fighting for, even the Russian speaking Ukrainians hate them now for bombing and killing. So for the Russian Army in Ukraine the level of motivation IMHO is more comparable to WW1. Also back then they were fighting for a "Tsar" and not in their own interest. They also tried to overwhelm the enemy with masses. They suffered horrific losses, but it worked as long as they had at least decent success (against the Austro-Hungarian army). But when the horrific losses didn't stop and they suffered one defeat after another the Russian Army finally collapsed. They still had plenty of manpower, but unwilling to be send to slaughter anymore.
Regarding "Russian speaking Ukrainians": Ukraine were a bilingual country with about half of the population speaking Russian in their daily lives before 2014, and 30% to 40% between 2014 and 2022. The older generations got education in Russian, and there was no settled Ukrainian terminology in most of the technical domains.
The correlation between pro-Russian sentiments and speaking Russian was one-sided: those who liked Russia would obviously speak Russian, but most of those who spoke Russian preferred to live in the free country.
Still, the war angered even the pro-Russian part of the population.
Thank you for your reply. I already have some knowledge about complicated Ukrainian/Russian history. Although I'm an Austrian, I'm working for a company which also has/had two plants in Ukraine, I have a co-worker from Russia (in Austria) and another one is a Russian speaking Ukrainian (now based in France) from Mykolaiv. So, yes. Putins stupid war made the sympathy for Russia hit rock-bottom also amongst Russian speaking Ukrainians.
I can't stop seeing self named war experts stating in the mainstream media that the counteroffensive has failed. I am in Italy but guess it's the same elsewhere
Of course it is. Indeed, it's precisely what Putin counts upon, meanwhile: he knows he can't win this war without the USA abandoning its support for Ukraine.
Sadly, that's 'normal' at war - especially such a big and important one like this.
However, just like one can't force people to go to a place of religious worship and pray to some gods and saints, one can't force people into changing their beliefs.
Point is: beliefs are something for places of religious worship. What matters at war are huge amounts of high explosives, and precise placement of the same upon the enemy, so that this - and its equipment - is destroyed in huge amounts.
Alessandro, russia spends millions (probably even billions) US dollars on their propaganda and information support of this war all over the world. The only purpose of this - stop or at least weaken western support of Ukraine. Many thanks to Italy and other countries supporting Ukraine
Thank you for the update. I have no problem with the metric you are using, but I am afraid a lot of people will. Itdoes not marker much If the support for Ukraine continues though. In the mean time your final paragraph is very good advice.
I know. I have sadly many friends (even ones with great culture, post university masters and so on) that continue sharing on social networks the viral fake news injected by Russian propaganda.
There are a lot of people who strongly hates Wester democracies where they lived a good and rich life. This hate expresses itself in admiration for post communist dictatorships.
In their mind Ukrainian people are very bad because they prefer to die instead living under those dictatorships. It's not acceptable for them that Ukrainians destroy their ideal regime like Russia or China.
I already lost some good friends: it's not possible to talk with them. It's like religion as Tom says. No chance to discuss their gods
Alessandro, you are 100% correct. They are educated but blind. Some hate their own countries and even admit it (e.g. Jon Wight), while some are just worshipping strange Gods. And some - unfortunately I have many of these as my girl friend is Russian - just believe that Russia must be right (e.g. "we saved Poland and the rest from Hitler so it is fair that we now rule Eastern Europe" - not a joke, I really hear this).
I have some russian friends and they are like that. But I can understand them: they have been misinformed and evangelized from state propaganda from school to media and so on. Then cannot access free information like we did. But I cannot accept this mindset from people living in the west.
I have some Russian friends living in Russia. I don't discuss with them. They are completely deluded. But these are not the people I am thinking about. The nonsense I hear every day is from Russians who live in the west. It's a disgrace.
Some russians I know say that Putin is good and brave, but in the while they decided to move here and see what happens. Females too, not fleeing from being sent into battle...
I know that russian immigrants in Germany 95-100% support Putin, even in Russia itself Putin got only 80% support.
They go to western universities, same students parties, but they like russia more. Why?
Because russia as a state offers some very nice staff. Like, "we are big empire, like US" of course people like it. Its better to enjoy German university, and feel yourself part of big nation.
Unfortunately this scepticism got strengthened a lot due to CoVid crisis. Due to lots of things reported by the media during the crisis, which later turned out to be complete bullshit, lots of people lost their trust in the media and jumped alternative (frequently right wing) media. But instead of being sceptic about them too, they believe now all the informations of the alternative media, because "they didn't lie at us during CoVid, so 100% must be true!" And so they are taking Russian propaganda for granted.
Certain Russian opposition like Leonid Rigozhin have been pushing this narrative, albeit in a subtle way, that the counter offensive has failed. Seems there's a lot of Western experts who are influenced by these people.
Mr Tom Cooper, I wish someone puts you in a position of responsibility. There are still major decisions to be taken over the next few years to deal with bad regimes
I wonder why the Hill 166 has so much attention in the various comments: if you look to the area adjascent to the those hills in south-east, you see that those areas are (1) higher and (broader)?
As explained yesterday: ZSU can't keep on pushing in southern direction without securing higher elevations. The reason is that the side in possession of higher elevations is in possession of better look at the battlefield, and can shoot at the enemy 'from above': has the enemy exposed, even if trying to take cover.
Eventually, it doesn't matter if it's the Hill 166, or 169, or 162.... all must be secured 'before' the ZSU can continue in direction of Tokmak.
But, and that's crucial: right now even these hills do not matter. What does matter is the quantity of the Russians and their equipment destroyed. Every single day. This is something I've been 'preaching' since March the last year:
Not only facts but a masterful writing! I have a close friend in ZSU, he is 48 and did not serve before. Now he finished a 3-months very hard training in the camp and tomorrow he will be sent to Bakhmut. But he is optimistic. Glory to Ukraine!
It is not allowed to make phone calls when on the frontline. Maybe we shall get news after some time. It is his first experience in this war and we hope for the better.
Great analysis as ever! I just wished our weak politicians had the grit to loan, sell or supply sufficient kit to enable Ukraine to finish the job. At least here in the UK we supplied nearly 10% of our tank fleet. That’s a separate joke in itself, mind...
Seems like Putin will soon have that difficult conversation, when Shoygu and Gerasimov tell him in the Führerbunker that the "Angriff Steiner" has failed because there were not enough troops left, and that all is lost.
But Putin also cannot be sure that the pro-war faction would not be outraged at an obvious defeat. He might be able to weather the storm. But in the long run, defeat weakens any regime.
As long as Putin is in power, one thing is sure: '5 minutes after' the Russian defeat in this war, all the 'too loud' members of the 'pro-war-faction' - are going to disappear. In very similar fashion in which they've appeared, too: on his order.
See:
....fall down the stairs....
....get hit by a bus....
....fall out of the window....
.....even fall down the stairs, then out of the window and then get hit by the bus....
Before that they put him in a car with several Azov captives on the way from the prison to the court. No accidents that time, however. Now they seem to have found someone who agreed to collaborate.
This was true until Putin tried to change the facts on the ground with his risky annexations. Even his power will destabilize with the attempt to "de-annex" Zaporizhia, LNR and DNR and Crimea - in increasing order of difficulty.
As for Sweden, I see no traces of lessening the military support to Ukraine. On the contrary, it seems like it is slowly increasing. The political will remains strong in pRliment and cabinet. The delay in allowing Swedens NATO membership is a problem, but hopefully Turkiye and Hungary cannot be allowed to fuzz too much longer.
Anslysis at different levels (from newspapers, to initiated blogs, to higher teachers at the military academy) seems
to agree with you. They appreciate that the pace is slow, but that the main effort is to destroy Russian forces, not necessarily gain ground in the quickest possible way.
In the summer of 2022 it was clear that Russia wouldn't make any more major advances. From the fall or '22 through the spring of '23, it was clear they were losing more equipment than Ukraine and at an unsustainable rate. Russia has a huge pool of manpower, but they were losing experienced/trained personnel and replacing them with unexperienced and untrained personnel. From May until now, the rate of equipment loss trended up to even higher rates. The more equipment they lose, the easier it is to destroy more equipment.
On the Ukrainian side, there have been losses, too, but at much lower rates. While Russian units are losing experience and training due to their high losses, Ukrainian units have been gaining experience through their low losses. The more experienced the Ukrainian units are, the lower their losses and the easier it is to kill Russians.
Unless something changes, the Russian army will eventually be so degraded, even mobilized replacements will not be able to hold back the experienced Ukrainian army. Then we'll see a new phase of the war and the territorial gains will happen.
I hope you are right. Soviet army (called Red Army at the time) suffered horrible losses in regular army in 1941 while exchanging territory and blood for time. That allowed them to rebuild. I believe pootin is replicating the same strategy, in hope that the West would get tired and Ukraine would loos ability to restock.
I also believe that Putin is trying to do that.
There are a few distinctions between the Soviet experience in WW2 and now. The Soviets were able to produce large quantities of contemporary equipment and were greatly aided by allied supplies. The Russians can no longer produce military quality steel for artillery barrels and are using barrels from vehicles in storage. They are alslosingo refurbishing old vehicles from storage. At some point they will run out of old vehicles.
Also, as the war progressed, the combat power of Soviet units increased with experience and a generally higher quality of leadership as the years went by. The Russians are losing their experienced troops and their leadership is suffering heavy losses.
Morale also seemed to improve as the war progressed for the Soviets whereas morale seems to be quite low in Russian units across the battlefield. That will have an impact on the battlefield.
The army Russian is rebuilding now does not have the same capabilities as the army that crossed the Ukrainian border.
There are more then one distinction. And I hope you are right.
One big distinction is that current ruzzia does not have Ukrainians fighting in the same army. Even in Soviet Army Ukrainians (not ethnically - rather people from Ukraine) constituted significant proportion of middle and senior officers.
However - SU lost ENTIRE standing army (alongside with officer corp) in the first months of nazi invasion. SU was throwing bodies on nazis for a year - until industry picked up and managed to produce enough equipment to keep enough soldiers and officers alive to get better.
However - the biggest difference between SU and RU is that ruzzia maintains negative selection in military leadership while Stalin switched to positive after the first couple of weeks of war.
1941 the Russians were highly motivated to defend their homeland against a brutal invader. In this war the Russians don't really know what they are fighting for, even the Russian speaking Ukrainians hate them now for bombing and killing. So for the Russian Army in Ukraine the level of motivation IMHO is more comparable to WW1. Also back then they were fighting for a "Tsar" and not in their own interest. They also tried to overwhelm the enemy with masses. They suffered horrific losses, but it worked as long as they had at least decent success (against the Austro-Hungarian army). But when the horrific losses didn't stop and they suffered one defeat after another the Russian Army finally collapsed. They still had plenty of manpower, but unwilling to be send to slaughter anymore.
Regarding "Russian speaking Ukrainians": Ukraine were a bilingual country with about half of the population speaking Russian in their daily lives before 2014, and 30% to 40% between 2014 and 2022. The older generations got education in Russian, and there was no settled Ukrainian terminology in most of the technical domains.
The correlation between pro-Russian sentiments and speaking Russian was one-sided: those who liked Russia would obviously speak Russian, but most of those who spoke Russian preferred to live in the free country.
Still, the war angered even the pro-Russian part of the population.
Thank you for your reply. I already have some knowledge about complicated Ukrainian/Russian history. Although I'm an Austrian, I'm working for a company which also has/had two plants in Ukraine, I have a co-worker from Russia (in Austria) and another one is a Russian speaking Ukrainian (now based in France) from Mykolaiv. So, yes. Putins stupid war made the sympathy for Russia hit rock-bottom also amongst Russian speaking Ukrainians.
I can't stop seeing self named war experts stating in the mainstream media that the counteroffensive has failed. I am in Italy but guess it's the same elsewhere
Is OK: let them 'believe' whatever they want to believe.
But isn't this kind of reporting harmful, since it leads to pressure against further support?
I agree.
Of course it is. Indeed, it's precisely what Putin counts upon, meanwhile: he knows he can't win this war without the USA abandoning its support for Ukraine.
Sadly, that's 'normal' at war - especially such a big and important one like this.
However, just like one can't force people to go to a place of religious worship and pray to some gods and saints, one can't force people into changing their beliefs.
Point is: beliefs are something for places of religious worship. What matters at war are huge amounts of high explosives, and precise placement of the same upon the enemy, so that this - and its equipment - is destroyed in huge amounts.
you actually can force people to go to a place of religious worship, quite easily
To give birth is a rather easy one-step way.
I don't think physical attendance in church was his point.
it doesn't matter. you can convert large populations of people to another religion or denomination. it's been proven multiple times.
Alessandro, russia spends millions (probably even billions) US dollars on their propaganda and information support of this war all over the world. The only purpose of this - stop or at least weaken western support of Ukraine. Many thanks to Italy and other countries supporting Ukraine
Thank you for the update. I have no problem with the metric you are using, but I am afraid a lot of people will. Itdoes not marker much If the support for Ukraine continues though. In the mean time your final paragraph is very good advice.
I know. I have sadly many friends (even ones with great culture, post university masters and so on) that continue sharing on social networks the viral fake news injected by Russian propaganda.
There are a lot of people who strongly hates Wester democracies where they lived a good and rich life. This hate expresses itself in admiration for post communist dictatorships.
In their mind Ukrainian people are very bad because they prefer to die instead living under those dictatorships. It's not acceptable for them that Ukrainians destroy their ideal regime like Russia or China.
I already lost some good friends: it's not possible to talk with them. It's like religion as Tom says. No chance to discuss their gods
Alessandro, you are 100% correct. They are educated but blind. Some hate their own countries and even admit it (e.g. Jon Wight), while some are just worshipping strange Gods. And some - unfortunately I have many of these as my girl friend is Russian - just believe that Russia must be right (e.g. "we saved Poland and the rest from Hitler so it is fair that we now rule Eastern Europe" - not a joke, I really hear this).
I have some russian friends and they are like that. But I can understand them: they have been misinformed and evangelized from state propaganda from school to media and so on. Then cannot access free information like we did. But I cannot accept this mindset from people living in the west.
I have some Russian friends living in Russia. I don't discuss with them. They are completely deluded. But these are not the people I am thinking about. The nonsense I hear every day is from Russians who live in the west. It's a disgrace.
Some russians I know say that Putin is good and brave, but in the while they decided to move here and see what happens. Females too, not fleeing from being sent into battle...
I know that russian immigrants in Germany 95-100% support Putin, even in Russia itself Putin got only 80% support.
They go to western universities, same students parties, but they like russia more. Why?
Because russia as a state offers some very nice staff. Like, "we are big empire, like US" of course people like it. Its better to enjoy German university, and feel yourself part of big nation.
Lots of Russian programmers fled for Germany because of the war. They dislike Putin.
The same was with the Western intellectuals in 1930-ies, 40-ies and 50-ies. Remember "the Cambridge Five" and the Rosenbergs.
Unfortunately this scepticism got strengthened a lot due to CoVid crisis. Due to lots of things reported by the media during the crisis, which later turned out to be complete bullshit, lots of people lost their trust in the media and jumped alternative (frequently right wing) media. But instead of being sceptic about them too, they believe now all the informations of the alternative media, because "they didn't lie at us during CoVid, so 100% must be true!" And so they are taking Russian propaganda for granted.
In Austria well known Colonel Markus Reisner (also on YT) already said: Russia is accumulating weapons for it's next biiiiiiig winter offensive.
Let's hope it's not that big as this huuuge russian success last winter in Vuhledar.
Certain Russian opposition like Leonid Rigozhin have been pushing this narrative, albeit in a subtle way, that the counter offensive has failed. Seems there's a lot of Western experts who are influenced by these people.
Thanks for keeping us updated, i sincerely appreciate your reports. I consider you as one of the best to report and understand the war ongoing.
Thank you, Tom!
Do you remember, September 2022:
"We have destroyed the professional Russian army, it is time to end the amateur one."
Valery Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Year later ruzzian army can only defend heavily mined and fortified positions.
Mr Tom Cooper, I wish someone puts you in a position of responsibility. There are still major decisions to be taken over the next few years to deal with bad regimes
Mate, I might be a good analyst: doesn't mean I would be a good decision-maker.
One must know own limits - and always keep them on mind.
Dear Tom,
I wonder why the Hill 166 has so much attention in the various comments: if you look to the area adjascent to the those hills in south-east, you see that those areas are (1) higher and (broader)?
As explained yesterday: ZSU can't keep on pushing in southern direction without securing higher elevations. The reason is that the side in possession of higher elevations is in possession of better look at the battlefield, and can shoot at the enemy 'from above': has the enemy exposed, even if trying to take cover.
Eventually, it doesn't matter if it's the Hill 166, or 169, or 162.... all must be secured 'before' the ZSU can continue in direction of Tokmak.
But, and that's crucial: right now even these hills do not matter. What does matter is the quantity of the Russians and their equipment destroyed. Every single day. This is something I've been 'preaching' since March the last year:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHzW-2S93Ec
Thank you.
Great article! I like the results. :)
Not only facts but a masterful writing! I have a close friend in ZSU, he is 48 and did not serve before. Now he finished a 3-months very hard training in the camp and tomorrow he will be sent to Bakhmut. But he is optimistic. Glory to Ukraine!
Best wishes to your friend. He is not alone. Many people think of the AFU.
He has a son aged 10, a wife and elderly parents. He will return to his family when the war is finished.
I am sure he will.
Please keep us updated.
It is not allowed to make phone calls when on the frontline. Maybe we shall get news after some time. It is his first experience in this war and we hope for the better.
Then we will wait for news and wish him luck all the while.
Хай щастить йому та його побратимам!
Great analysis as ever! I just wished our weak politicians had the grit to loan, sell or supply sufficient kit to enable Ukraine to finish the job. At least here in the UK we supplied nearly 10% of our tank fleet. That’s a separate joke in itself, mind...
Seems like Putin will soon have that difficult conversation, when Shoygu and Gerasimov tell him in the Führerbunker that the "Angriff Steiner" has failed because there were not enough troops left, and that all is lost.
Thank you so much.
Is there truth in the voices that they used Sokolov's desk as an aiming point?
Interesting that Putin doesn't seem to be panicking. Ditto for Shoigu and Gerasimov.
They should have called for another mass mobilization weeks if not months ago.
The grand old Russian tradition of lying to one's superior's all through the chain of command seems to be Kyiv's secret weapon.
Why should Putin panic?
He can declare this war for 'over', the 'mission in Ukraine' for 'accomplished', and withdraw troops - any time of the day.
Just like he did in Syria. Three times.
And nobody in Russia would dare complaining. On the contrary: they would all rush to serve their Tsar with all the heroism and successes in the war.
Just like they did in Syria. Four times.
All true.
But Putin also cannot be sure that the pro-war faction would not be outraged at an obvious defeat. He might be able to weather the storm. But in the long run, defeat weakens any regime.
As long as Putin is in power, one thing is sure: '5 minutes after' the Russian defeat in this war, all the 'too loud' members of the 'pro-war-faction' - are going to disappear. In very similar fashion in which they've appeared, too: on his order.
See:
....fall down the stairs....
....get hit by a bus....
....fall out of the window....
.....even fall down the stairs, then out of the window and then get hit by the bus....
Because that's the way the System Putin works.
Putin & co. have not such a big imagination, they just fall out of the window, all of them.
Some also consume Polonium or Novichok. Don't underestimate the creativity of the FSB at least in killing people. They have decades of experience.
Well, accidents do happen. Recently in jail Girkin was left alone with a Ukrainian inmate and was beaten, see:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1706086075133727132
Before that they put him in a car with several Azov captives on the way from the prison to the court. No accidents that time, however. Now they seem to have found someone who agreed to collaborate.
"Our objective was to remove Nazism from Ukraine. Look now, do you see any Nazis in Ukraine? Objective accomplished"
Exactly.
'Nazis removed from Ukraine'.
Shouldn't mean there were any in Ukraine at all, but: in System Putin - who cares?
This was true until Putin tried to change the facts on the ground with his risky annexations. Even his power will destabilize with the attempt to "de-annex" Zaporizhia, LNR and DNR and Crimea - in increasing order of difficulty.
Dear Tom,
Thank you again for your news and analysis.
As for Sweden, I see no traces of lessening the military support to Ukraine. On the contrary, it seems like it is slowly increasing. The political will remains strong in pRliment and cabinet. The delay in allowing Swedens NATO membership is a problem, but hopefully Turkiye and Hungary cannot be allowed to fuzz too much longer.
Anslysis at different levels (from newspapers, to initiated blogs, to higher teachers at the military academy) seems
to agree with you. They appreciate that the pace is slow, but that the main effort is to destroy Russian forces, not necessarily gain ground in the quickest possible way.
To me it looks brighter than ever!
Sweden is one of the most sane countries in the world. Thank you, people, for your support!
You refer to partisans in Sevastopol - was that in reference to the intel about the meeting where there was an "uninvited guest of honour" ?
I have no idea what are you talking about....