Ukraine War, 26 September 2023: The right Stuff....erm...Metrics

Good morning everybody!

Going through a myriad of reports from the frontlines in southern Zaporizhzhya of the last few days, even weeks, and some analysis…. well, at least two thingies are now sure:

-          1.) at the pace the super-brains between the Keystone Cops in Moscow are squandering the VDV in the Robotyne-Verbove-Novoprokopivka area, there will be none of their desantniki left – and that well before the ‘wet season’ (which, BTW, ‘isn’t that bad’ in that part of Ukraine); and, and that’s at least as ‘cool’:

-          2.) at the pace the Keystone Cops in Moscow are losing air defence systems, electronic warfare systems, tanks, and artillery pieces…. well… see below.

As mentioned, as of around 24-27 August, the 58^th CAA was so badly beaten up, that its collapse and thus a Ukrainian breakthrough between Robotyne and Verbove was imminent.

The Keystone Cops reacted with rushing four divisions of the VDV – the strategic reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation; the ‘best’ there was in Russia already before the war (not to talk ever since); the troops they’re deploying in wars of this kind as first, and for hardest tasks possible…. Pudding’s last hope, name it as you like – to the southern Zaporizhzhya. To make things ‘better’, I guess: probably driven by the urgent need to feed some ‘good news’-videos to Pudding, the Keystone Cops didn’t just deploy these troops into the defence line, to replace mauled units of the 58^th CAA. Nope. They deployed them into a major counterattack.

The idea – so this appears to me at least – was ‘obvious’: to envelop the ‘cauldron’ or ‘bulge’ created by Ukrainian penetration south of the minefields, in between of Robotyne and Verbove: to drive into the eastern and western flanks of the ZSU at the same time, and thus and sack some 4-5 brigades. Finish off the Ukrainian offensive that ‘failed’ already back…. When did the Keystone Cops claim it for failed, was it on 6 or 7 June…?

(Indeed, thinking of it: for once, the Keystone Cops even operated along their own doctrine. After all, and hand on heart: the VDV is ‘airborne assault troops’. Best for attack, but ill-suited for defence purposes. Thus, it was ‘kind of logical’ that it was deployed for a major counterattack.)

Point is: it didn’t work. The Russians lost not only the most of the 810^th Naval Infantry Brigade, but also squandered three regiments of the VDV. Almost an entire division. They suffered such losses that what was left of two (not just one) of the regiments in question broke and run away. So much so, the 118^th Mech, ZSU – the unit that was so badly beaten during its first attack in this operation, back in August – drove them back to behind their starting positions. That was east of Robotyne/north of Verbove. West of Robotyne, the 47^th Mech is still mopping up the battlefield, but then doing so meanwhile about 1,000 metres away from the place (the battle began some 300 metres west of it, i.e. 700m behind the point where Ukrainians are now….and mind: 100 metres in this battle is ‘days of combat’). RUMINT has it, the 7^th VDV Division lost even most of its command staff, while the 234^th and 237^th VDV Regiments (both from the 76^th VDV Division) are, de-facto, no more…

That’s the essence of the reason why it looked like if the ZSU didn’t make any major advances over the last few weeks: it was busy letting the Russians bleed their best units white. (BTW, word is that one of involved ZSU brigades lost exactly two infantry fighting vehicles and two wounded soldiers in these clashes.)

….and as a coup on cake, on 22 September the PSU then blew up a major meeting of top Russian commanders, including the CO 58^th CAA, the CO Black Sea Fleet and few others…. Some 34 top officers in total: the command corps of the Russian forces in the occupied Crimea, southern Kherson and southern Zaporizhzhya - all gone. Another 100+ were wounded, many critically… and that in Sevastopol… which then turned out to be full of Ukrainian partisans, or at least informants and sympathisers, too…

With which the glorious Gerasimov & Co KG GesmbH AG SPA are now back to where they were almost exactly one month ago. They’re facing the question: and, what now?

Since they’ve deployed even their strategic reserve, and this was mauled at an even higher pace than the 58^th CAA – definitely: much faster than I’ve expected – they’ve got no reserves left. Of course, they’re going to find some more mobik-desantniki, and Storm-Z and whatever else, and rush them into this direction, but: there were no better troops left in Russia than those the 7^th and the 76^th VDV have lost on this battlefield. And the further south Ukrainians advance, the poorer the Russian field fortifications are, too…

To make sure: some of this is ‘logical’. After all, the ZSU has already overcome the ‘worst’, back in June-July and early August. That was that combination of the 10km-deep-, dense minefields and the best Russian field fortifications. In comparison to that, beating the VDV that came out in the open to counterattack, and that while supported by – finally – enough artillery shells (and that from two full artillery brigades), was ‘something like easy’.

‘But’, and ‘just a few days later’, Ukrainians are already inside Novoprokopivka, (again) inside Verbove (again), and about 100m short of the peak of the Hill 169, too – and then, in the case of Novoprokopivka, they’re in the north-eastern part of the village, which is on a higher elevation than the rest.  The guys are tired, no doubt, and sometimes there are lots of wounded, but: they’re in high spirits.

Marder IFVs ‘moving out’, somewhere in southern Zaporizhzhya…

For those for whom this ‘metric’ might ‘not be enough’, yet (and I most sincerely hope: no representatives of the leading US media are going to read the following, because they could never understand it, and are going to mis-quote me again), keep in mind the following, too.

Gauging by statistics released by official Kyiv – and put together by gent from Germany, here - in each of the last four months, the ZSU destroyed more Russian artillery, than in the first four months of this year, combined. Better yet: gauging by what is meanwhile known about this effort, it did so in the course of a well-orchestrated, carefully and patiently run operation. This included significant ‘softening’ of the Russian air defences, back in the second half of June, and especially in July, and then – once the way was open because air defences were suppressed – began systematic destruction of multiple Russian artillery brigades, and artillery elements of different other units. So much so, since August, Ukrainians switched their focus on targeting artillery, while in September, their targeted the Russian counterattacks plus the artillery – and felt free to go smashing the Russian air defences on the Crimea, too.

The effects are dramatic: Ukrainian UAVs are roaming the battlefield, searching for Russian artillery pieces. Even PSU’s helicopters can operate where they were not to be seen for months. Russian bases on the Crimea are blown up, one after the other; those in the Tokmak area, too. Closer to the frontline, the Russians are suffering such losses and such wear of their pieces, they can’t keep up with scavenging their ‘depots’ for stored guns and for spare gun barrels, especially those calibre 152mm. Even their rate of tank production and overhauls of stored T-72s and T-80s can’t keep up with losses any more.

With other words: it is exactly as explained. ‘Destroying and waiting’. See: the ZSU is running a systematic, large-scale, gradual destruction of the Russian armed forces. It is destroying the Russian air defences, electronic warfare systems, their artillery, their logistics, their tanks, and hundreds of Russian troops, every day. And advancing only when opportune. And when the Russians bring in yet more, yet more is destroyed. In big numbers.

This is, if I’m to ask, the sole valid ‘metric’ to gauge this offensive - and, as explained so often so far: the only ‘way out’ of this war.

Is not nice, no sexy, and no fast operation. But it works.

That much about all of this. Now, let us all shut up, be patient (and when you can’t wait any more: be patient), and let the ZSU guys (and girls) finish this story – as, when, and at the pace they prefer.