Hello everybody! That was an… ‘interesting’…. day yesterday, as several important things have happened and yet, many of them appear to have ‘passed unobserved’, while others seem to be based on outright refusals to accept realities of this war. What am I talking about this time?
It is interesting how the Russians have been adapting, they have improved the UMPK Kit, they are doing SEAD, they have destroid the Patriot systems and in some cases maneuver warfare, I read other analysts and they see with some hope the arrival of the MLU VIpers, something that already you analyzed in the saga "It's a stupid range", Thanks again Tom
perfect analysis, but unfortunately no good news for UA. more bad news: HU and SK refused to take part in art ammo supply union (it was expected, but is still very unpleasant)
Zirkons seems to be launched from ground launchers based on standard sea 40Ft containers (similar art and fashion as Shakheds launcher), they use not liquid, but hard reactive fuel (RUMINT). Fortunately, production capacities are very limited. Hope, debils in the US are able at least to control sanctions regime, if not supporting UA with funds and ammos: almost 90% of chips and micro schemes are of US/Taiwan/EU origin
1. As I understood 2 Cyrkones were shot down. At least it is good, because otherwise it would be much worse
2. In your opinion, what is the most likely reason why Ukrainians stopped shot down VKS planes. You stated a few reasons yesterday but what is main, in your opinion?
3. Yesterday Crimea strike is claimed to be partially caused by Neptune's cruise missiles? Any ideas about type of launcher?
Sometimes your reports sound overly pessimistic, sometimes overly (yet relatively) optimistic. I mean that has always been the case of Russian advances - send more people after the dead. And yet here we are with small changes in the front. That’s why I’ve been saying Russian will run first of people than weapons (and I had the same thought after reading Don’s optimistic piece yesterday about Russia going to run out of IFVs in 2025, artillery barrels, etc)
I also heard that Kharkiv is without electricity. Supposedly Russians hit an electric station that supplies the town and to fix it will take years. They’re getting electricity from other regions, but a lot of services are affected.
Looks like the Russians weaponized the missile debris and turned that debris into precision munition completely flattening the building SBU was using for their little gathering.
Thank you so very much. The "West" is so utterly idiotic, so hypocritical, so stuffy, so selfsatisfied , so arrogant ... I have lately looked at the reasearch programme of the Peace Research Institute in Hesse founded in 1970, one of the worst Stuhlkreis advisors of German politics at least since the 1990s. A look at their recent work and even a look at their new programmes is devastating. I wonder how much money the federal state still spends on it.. Utterly useless or even worse. But no trace of them reflecting on their positions.
A layman question: how exactly can it be harder to launch a missile from land (steady platform) than from sea (rocking platform, roughly same height, probably less obstacles around, but surely one can find a field on land too)?
Interesting update. Thank you Tom. Just few questions. Do you have any estimate about the production capacity of the Russian FABs? Can they keep up the current amount of bombing with new production, or are they drawing it from stocks. So, is the actual bombing campaign sustainable in mid term?
Thank you for the update. Major respect for Ukraine, fighting a better military than NATO prepared for without anywhere close to the military industrial base to support. The Russians have been able to adapt to the war, copy Ukrainian innovations as well as adapt to the "Mother of all Sanctions"(which turned out to be a nothing burger) that the Biden admin and Sullivan military geniuses imposed on them.
Tom, I read that Ukraine requested AESA radar for the Vipers, I guess some ECIPS/CJS from the Danish inventory in their MLUs for EW, maybe that's not enough. ? understanding that they will have to support themselves with some Awacs Nato
It is interesting how the Russians have been adapting, they have improved the UMPK Kit, they are doing SEAD, they have destroid the Patriot systems and in some cases maneuver warfare, I read other analysts and they see with some hope the arrival of the MLU VIpers, something that already you analyzed in the saga "It's a stupid range", Thanks again Tom
perfect analysis, but unfortunately no good news for UA. more bad news: HU and SK refused to take part in art ammo supply union (it was expected, but is still very unpleasant)
Zirkons seems to be launched from ground launchers based on standard sea 40Ft containers (similar art and fashion as Shakheds launcher), they use not liquid, but hard reactive fuel (RUMINT). Fortunately, production capacities are very limited. Hope, debils in the US are able at least to control sanctions regime, if not supporting UA with funds and ammos: almost 90% of chips and micro schemes are of US/Taiwan/EU origin
Thanks for report.
1. As I understood 2 Cyrkones were shot down. At least it is good, because otherwise it would be much worse
2. In your opinion, what is the most likely reason why Ukrainians stopped shot down VKS planes. You stated a few reasons yesterday but what is main, in your opinion?
3. Yesterday Crimea strike is claimed to be partially caused by Neptune's cruise missiles? Any ideas about type of launcher?
4. Can cruise missiles have cluster warhead?
Thanks Tom!
Several questions:
1. Wasn’t the strike at Odessa after Kyiv? At least that was the chronology of reporting in Ukrainian media.
2. You said Kyiv was lucky. Did they shoot down the missiles or they missed? That’s important - whether Patriot is effective or not.
Sometimes your reports sound overly pessimistic, sometimes overly (yet relatively) optimistic. I mean that has always been the case of Russian advances - send more people after the dead. And yet here we are with small changes in the front. That’s why I’ve been saying Russian will run first of people than weapons (and I had the same thought after reading Don’s optimistic piece yesterday about Russia going to run out of IFVs in 2025, artillery barrels, etc)
I also heard that Kharkiv is without electricity. Supposedly Russians hit an electric station that supplies the town and to fix it will take years. They’re getting electricity from other regions, but a lot of services are affected.
Looks like the Russians weaponized the missile debris and turned that debris into precision munition completely flattening the building SBU was using for their little gathering.
Hello, I am from "the West" What should I do to help?
Thank you so very much. The "West" is so utterly idiotic, so hypocritical, so stuffy, so selfsatisfied , so arrogant ... I have lately looked at the reasearch programme of the Peace Research Institute in Hesse founded in 1970, one of the worst Stuhlkreis advisors of German politics at least since the 1990s. A look at their recent work and even a look at their new programmes is devastating. I wonder how much money the federal state still spends on it.. Utterly useless or even worse. But no trace of them reflecting on their positions.
A layman question: how exactly can it be harder to launch a missile from land (steady platform) than from sea (rocking platform, roughly same height, probably less obstacles around, but surely one can find a field on land too)?
https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-ghost-missile-everything-we-know-about-hypersonic-zircon-missiles-russia-launches-at-kyiv?amp
This sounds interesting - which is the likely base in Crimea from where the missiles are launched
Interesting update. Thank you Tom. Just few questions. Do you have any estimate about the production capacity of the Russian FABs? Can they keep up the current amount of bombing with new production, or are they drawing it from stocks. So, is the actual bombing campaign sustainable in mid term?
Thanks for the update. Seems there are indeed gaps in the Ukrainian airdefence. Note to the West.
Thank you for the update. Major respect for Ukraine, fighting a better military than NATO prepared for without anywhere close to the military industrial base to support. The Russians have been able to adapt to the war, copy Ukrainian innovations as well as adapt to the "Mother of all Sanctions"(which turned out to be a nothing burger) that the Biden admin and Sullivan military geniuses imposed on them.
Tom, I read that Ukraine requested AESA radar for the Vipers, I guess some ECIPS/CJS from the Danish inventory in their MLUs for EW, maybe that's not enough. ? understanding that they will have to support themselves with some Awacs Nato
So what should Ukrainians do to accept the reality?