Ukraine War, 26 March 2024

Hello everybody!

That was an… ‘interesting’…. day yesterday, as several important things have happened and yet, many of them appear to have ‘passed unobserved’, while others seem to be based on outright refusals to accept realities of this war.

What am I talking about this time?

Let me explain it in my usual fashion, step-by-step.

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AIR/MISSILE WAR

Early in the morning of yesterday (Monday, 25 March 2023), Ukrainians claimed to have shot down 8 out of 9 Shaheds released by the Russians. That far, everything was ‘almost as usual’.

Then, around 10.30hrs in the morning, the Russians fired several 3M22 Zirkon hypersonic missiles at Ukraine. Apparently:

-          2 at Kyiv

-          1 at Poltava

-          1 at Kremenchuk

-          4 at the Odesa area

What’s ‘so special’ about the Zirkon?

Foremost its speed: this is variously claimed at Mach 7 to Mach 9 (i.e. 8,575km/h or 6,090mph, to 11,000km/h or 6,851mph).

Furthermore, at least the two fired at Kyiv seem to have been aimed for the main headquarter of the SBU: the major Security Service of Ukraine, which was celebrating something like its own day.

Now, gauging by Ukrainian reactions, the two that targeted Kyiv have been shot down.

Still, this attack actually caused a shock: it came in fast that there was no time to sound alarm. I.e. the missiles came in, there were two booms, and only then was the alarm sounded. And that in Kyiv: the best-protected piece of real estate in all of Ukraine. I do not want to think what happened in other of targeted places.

Sure, Ukrainians are reporting that all the damage was caused by debris and, apparently, there were ‘only’ injuries… in Kyiv. But, what happened with other Zirkons…. Nobody would say.

Actually: I would say that the people in Kyiv were lucky, sort of: by the time the city was hit, the PSU has had the time to figure out that the Russians are deploying ‘something new’ - because the missiles in question have already hit their targets in the Odesa, Kremenchuk and Poltava areas…

As next, it was the direction from which this attack came that was surprise; or, at least the deployment of these weapons from the occupied Crimea. So much so, some started guessing if these were (‘well-known’) Onyx missiles, as used time and again over the last two years?

Well, all doubts were removed only once the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise confirmed them as Zirkons.

As so often, ‘problem’ is dogmatic thinking. Kind of, ‘Zirkon is installed on major warships (see: battle-cruisers of the Kirov-class, like Peter Velikiy) and submarines (Yasen-class) of the Russian navy, only’ - and not as a land-launched missile. Moreover, its range was assessed with about 300km.

Point is: the Russians have obviously developed the means to deploy it from the land. Might sound ‘impossible’, at least ‘hard’, because this is ‘the Russians’, and nothing of this kind was ever reported by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, but: please mind that the Zirkon is undergoing development for nearly 20 years, and – even more important – the Russians were given two years to find a solution to deploy it from the land.

Moreover, Zirkon’s range depends on the speed and flight altitude: 300km is valid if the weapon is programmed to fly at low altitudes and at max speed. If programmed to fly high and slightly slower, the range can be increased to some 740km. Indeed, if filled with that (apparently: highly dangerous) fuel that was developed especially for Zirkon, this can be stretched to 1,000km. Means: yes, if fired from the occupied Crimea, it can reach Kyiv.

With other words: never say never, and always mind that – except in ‘the West’ – the ‘defence sector’ (and the politicians, plus the media) never sleeps. Weapons of this kind can – and frequently are – adapted to necessities. Especially if their makers are given enough time to do so.

(I hate ‘drawing parallels to the Second World War’, but yes, right now we do have a situation like if, say, the Allies stopped at Rhine and Oder in 1944, and then waited for Hitler’s ‘Wunderwaffen’ to be developed and deployed, so… in 1947 or later…🙄 )

At least that was ‘that’: today, the Russians returned to their ‘routine’. Early this morning, Ukrainians claimed to have shot down another 12 out of 12 Shaheds and as of mid-morning, there were no reports about deployment of additional Zirkons.

BTW, that with Zirkon ‘can’t be fired from the land’ reminds me of recent reports about ‘Russia launching production of 1,500kg and 3,000kg bombs’.

Wrong.

As their designation is nicely explaining (and as stressed several times already since some of such weapons were deployed for bombardment of Mariupol, back in March 2022), production of FAB-1500M-54 and FAB-3000M-54 was launched already back in 1954.

Means: the Russians have ‘merely’ re-launched their production and this is ‘news’ only for those too lazy to read or write the full designation of such weapons (or too clueless but to know them…).

A FAB-1500M-54 as seen at the Sverdlov Works, in Nizhny Novogorod, about a week ago…

BTW, they have meanwhile launched production of ‘ballistic caps’ and UMPK-kits – at least for FAB-1500M-54, as obvious from this photo:

UMPK-kit (see ‘wings’) atop of a FAB-1500M-54, and ‘ballistic cap’ on its nose. The latter is necessary to improve its aerodynamic performance - whether while still carried under something like Su-34, or once released. Namely: like the entire ‘family’ of M-54 bombs, FAB-1500M-54s have an ‘almost flat’ front, and thus are creating lots of drag.

…which then prompted some to guess if, because of their size, such weapons can be deployed by Tu-22M-3 bombers, ‘only’. Well, nope. That is: yes, they can be deployed from Tu-22M-3s but from other aircraft, too. Especially from Su-34s. The jet has two weapons stations under the centreline, each rated for 1,500kg, and ‘wired’ for release of KAB-1500 guided bombs. Indeed, the Su-34 is powerful enough to carry three weapons calibre 1,500kg at once. The Su-24M should be able to lift at least two, if not four at once.

A chart of different possible warloads for Su-34. Pay attention at stations 1 and 2, and then such weaponry/loads (left column) like ‘KAB-1500’ or ‘PTB’ drop tanks…

Thus, only the size of the FAB-3000M-54 might become the limiting factor. That’s left to be seen…

Should there be any doubts: diameter of FAB-1500m-54 is approximately the same like that of the three drop tanks installed on this Su-34.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

In brief… can’t help having the impression of all too many in Ukraine continue refusing to accept the reality (i.e. that this is not only the case with the mass of people in the West). And so, for example:

Bakhmut… after securing ‘that important hill’ dominating Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, the last week, and while constantly supported by UMPK-strikes of the VKS, the Russians seem to have secured at least ‘most’ if not all of the latter, i.e. Ivanivske, the last two days. Unsurprisingly, meanwhile they began grinding towards eastern Chasiv Yar, too. Now, yes, the ZSU has developed relatively good defence system of that town, meanwhile, but: thinking it might take the Russians ‘months’ to get there… sorry, can’t but call that ‘wishful thinking’. For ‘how’? Well, in usual fashion: yes, the ZSU smashed both the 98^th VDV Division and the 11^th VDV Brigade, ‘but’: the Russians then poured yet more reservist regiments to the scene, and continued attacking…

Avdiivka-Shakhtarsk…. It’s similar: yes, the 47^th Mech is really k… erm… kuddling Russians ‘in scores’ all over Berdychi, but they keep on sending ever new assault groups, and thus have secured much of this place, too. Just like they’re continuing to push west from Tonenke, regardless what losses is the 53^rd Mech causing them.

That’s about the ‘most important’ two sectors: be sure, it’s not all too different in other sectors of the frontline: This is so because although Ukrainians are really swarming the Russians with FPV-drones, the last few weeks, these are simply no replacement for the ‘tonnage’ of explosives they could hurl at the enemy with help of artillery – all provided they would have enough artillery shells.

….and that’s simply still not the case. Indeed: it’s unlikely to change before ‘June or so’….