Hello everybody! Up front: special thanks for all the positive reactions to my request to support the collection of 3rd SSO’s Shark UAV. Much appreciated! I’m sorry for lacking time to answer all the personal messages: there are, really far too many.
Restoration of artillery ammunition supply may give the Ukrainians the means to exchange fires for fires and maybe suppress some of the Russian artillery via counterbattery but I do not see how they could counter the glide bomb strikes. I see no way to be able to attack Russian aircraft 50-70 km or more on their side of the FLOT on their approach to release point. The Ukrainians will not risk putting Patriots 20 or 30 kms near the front anymore. The glide bombs are there to stay, I am afraid, and their use can only intensify in proportion to Russians getting more experienced with manufacturing the glide kits and using them
You're right. Even longe-range ATACMS will only push the Russia further away and give the VKS a slightly longer flight time before they release their bombs. Suppressing Russian front-line GBAD to allow Ukrainian fighters to get closer is one response. The RAM X loitering munition may do to the Russians what they have inflicted on Ukraine with the Lancet. There's been an increase in reported GBAD kills. We don't know for sure, but, fingers crossed, RAM X is having an effect.
In my dreams, some smart Ukrainian engineers or a team from MBDA jury-rig MIG-29s to carry Meteors. Or maybe build a Meteor Franken-SAM. Either would put an end to the glide bomb campaign.
Budanov often talks boldly, but fails to deliver. Like when he predicted Ukrainian troops on Crimean soil, before the offensive. Then when the offensive failed he landed a handful of special forces to plant a flag before being chased away.
Russia is playing the long game. It is constantly increasing the pressure on Ukraine and simultaneously improving Its own capabilities. The now meagre Western help cannot reverse this trend, not to mention Ukraine needs a lot of new troops to replace the losses and rotate the exhausted units like the 47th.
That a boss of a military intelligence service has absolutely nothing to search for in form of public appearances. It's not his job to provide any kind of interviews to anybody. The only place where he should be babbling around would be if the Parliament in Kyiv demands him to do so.
And his 'crisis in May' is already here. Loud and clear. And that since mid-April.
The ZSU might be in a rush to construct a new defence line, 5-10km west of Ocheretyne, but the fact is: if it is forced to withdraw from that area - and it has already lost the town - it's going to have to withdraw for some 25-50+ kilometres.
There is simply no way to describe the severety of this crisis.
Many thanks Tom despite the fact of the awful situation. I am not fan of Budanov he is good in PR but after last year pssst....before offensive he is just one more of many in ZSU that has no clue how to lead the army in a war.
Well the west in their infinite wisdom didnt give noting to contain those glide bombs.
The frontline is gonna crack at some point somewhere and then everybody is gonna be real surprised on how did this happened as there is an expectation that outgunned and understaffed Ukrainian units can fight forever.
Enough PAC, IRIS-T, NASAMS and similar SAM-systems to deploy them close to the frontline to shoot incoming Su-34s before these can release their UMPKs.
Right now, the PSU hasn't even got enough to protect more than Kyiv and Odesa...
Because the PSU has not enough pilots nor ground personnel fluent in English to train as instructors for those who are not fluent in English.
Mind that as recently as 2020-2021, the PSU was so badly underfunded that it was losing dozens of pilots and hundreds of ground personnel a year. And then came the war, and it lost lots of pilots (including at least four slanted to become instructors because they were fluent in English) and ground personnel in combat and accidents.
I don't see it as a big problem. There is international legion in UA fighting along in ZSU. Why pilots, ground personnel can't do that as well? There are interpreters at least which can be used while training ukrainians. Are you saying Ukrainian airplanes ground personnel was involved in combat as ordinary troops?
To learn to fly and fight in an F-16, you need to learn enough English to start thinking and flying that F-16 in English, too. And your ground crew needs to know what is it doing. And then your ground control.... that's not working with help of interpreters.
And yes, of course was PSU ground personnel killed and wounded too. What do you think happens whenever the Russians strike one of Ukrainian air bases? They always miss and nobody ever gets hurt?
Tom, how much of this can be blamed on the Ukrainian's seemingly cultural inability to use a shovel? i.e. last winter the Russians quietly worked their socks off building the Surovikin line, whereas the Ukrainians still think they are fighting a PR war on Twitter and trying the perfect the ultimate FPV drone video.
Can't say for sure, but my impression is that they did start digging trenches and constructing fortifications - but in entirely wrong areas. For example: east of Odesa.
WTF needs defence lines east of Odesa? The frontline is 500+ km east of there...
there was a live on youtube last night. One of the company companders was discussing this issue.
1. Both ru and ua dig exclusively by shovels.
2. ru have special forces for digging and they dig al the time. even when under fire. And they dig in very fast, very dig and very vast.
3. ua do not really dig (en mass) due to lack of order from above and lack of care from commanders on the ground.
So his take is its all about bad commanders in ua that ua troops are taking such looses. This mans syas that his company was carriyng hard looses every weeek before his assignment and after that they had only 1-2 200 in several months. Also the soldiers themself dont really care much about their security so commander should hit them hard to make dig in and do some training that saves lives.
Given the glide bomb issues and the current retreat in the east. I am wondering what the likelihood is of the US allowing the Ukrainians to use ATACMS missiles to directly attack airbases in Russia or saying it's up to Ukraine what they do with the kit?
What's his deal? How can they expect for Ukraine to have a fighting chance when they restrict them to such great extent? Everyone in the west keeps on talking how Ukraine must win and we mist not let Putin seize the territory of Ukraine; yet at the same time we give so little and restrict the use of weapons so greatly?
1. They worry such attacks would sooner or later cause civilian casualties, and cause rally 'round the flag effect. It's happening in Belgorod already - some reports that even people who did not supported the war in the beginning have turned their mind after Ukrainian attacks. The effect could be that next mobilization would be much easier and it may turn in kind of "Great Patriotic War II" i.e. very bloody mess.
2. Russia may hand weapons to Iran or some militias to attack US bases, ships, aircraft elsewhere. So, that would drag US into the war.
Disclaimer: I do not say that I agree with that just trying to explain some reasons why USA is afraid. USA is not almighty power, they have fear and worries, too.
While I concur what you are saying; they could for example restrict the use of ATACMS strictly on military targets. Ukraine needs to do something about Russian airstrikes ASAP - one way would be to destroy the airports from where aircrafts equipped with glide bomb attacks.
Ukraine war is already a bloody mess - If Russians would go to fight "a patriotic war" because Ukraine would be able to legitemately strike their logistical hubs, depos, airfields, etc... inside Russia - well let them fight it, but they should do it inside Russia, otherwise its not a patriotic war but imperialism.
Ukraine has been sustaining Russian air strike for over 2 years - yet the West restricts them to strike back - this is just cruel and unfair. Ukrainians have suffered more than enough already.
Would Iran really dare to strike US targets and risk a war against them? I sort of doubt it; because otherwise they would - US bases, ships, etc... are already within reach of Iranian ballistic missiles.
FFS - the UA air space should be closed long time ago by NATO - I don't understand why are we such spineless cowards... For the first time since very very long NATO would have a just and moral reason for intervention. The horrors and suffering brought to Ukranian for no reason is just too much for 21th century.
Closed air space would save countless lives and by now allowed Ukraine with the help of NATO air force to liberaty its territories. Yes we would be hearing nuclear speaches and red line crossing from Putin on daily basis, but who cares what he has to say. The war would be over.
Yes of course, I know. I am just fed up with how this whole situation has been handled by the west, not to mentioned how deepy sorry I feel for Ukranians... And our politicians still speak in the manner of; we must show Putin his war does not pay off for him - like he doesn't know that since Marc 2022....
Anyway, everything is slowly starting to remind of the times between 1939-1941 and hesitancy back then.
But I would be very happy to see western airforce putting Russian army back where it belongs - in Russia. This war is simply totally senseless for Russia at this point. If Putin would seize Ukraine in a month, absorb its army into his, take Ukranian economy - then yes, it would benefit him greatly, boost his moral and confidence, which would most likely lead to an assault on some other European state, riding "high" on his victory in Ukraine. In a way this is now unlikely, because Ukraine was helped to a degree where it weakend Russia to a great extent, but for a great (unacceptable?) cost of their own people and land.
But currently there is no solution on the horizon. And I doubt anyone in EU or USA has a plan what to do or is willing to do. I sort of believe if NATO would be more daring and agressive, Russia would back off - they are even more scared of a direct conflict with NATO, than our politicians. Yes Russian would talk and threaten a lot, but eventually we will have to say enough is enough. Otherwise this will be a neverending story. Pushing Russian forced out of Ukraine but not an inch more, and sealing the deal, finishig this dreadful endeavour. If this would play in Putins hand or not, we should not care. Let Russian do in Russia whatever they feel like, hate whoever they want, etc...; just let the rest of countries alone.
NATO can close the airspace above some part of Ukraine far from the frontline (say right bank of Dnipro, including Kyiv). This this would mean that NATO won't shoot russian aircraft directly, just the missiles/drones (nothing different to what was done recently for Israel). This would free up scarce Patriots/NASA's etc to be used at the from line to shoot russian Migs and SU.
The pace and tempo of the air attacks with glide bombs, what tell US about the VKS sustainment and maintenance? When the war started, we Saw a complete absence of VKS at 5/6 months of sustained air campaigns because the Soviet planes are not diesigned for it. And the VKS was transitioning from a peace structire to a wartime.
So whats happen now? They got more airframes and are able to hace lots flying, plus lots having done deep maintenance so the attacks fleet is always thr same? Or also, they are producing new airframes or receiving them from China orr something?
Russian military industry is working in 3 shifts, even managing to sustain certain export volumes. Surely not the Soviet scale, but generally enough to compensate aircraft losses. Just google it.
The 'VKS absence' is an urban myth, created by Western 'experts' too lazy to research.
The VKS was around, all out, right from the start. Arguably, it couldn't fly a lot in the Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv area, the first 4-5 days of the invasion, because of disorganisation on the ground, and bad weather. Entire armies were falling apart while trying to advance into Ukraine, and it was snowing.
As soon as the weather improved, around 28 February, the VKS was in full swing there.
And, in the south, the VKS was airborne all the time, and flying hundreds of sorties.
And right now, they're flying as much as they can. The crisis with the lack of airframes and pilots was back in 2023.
Militaryland.net is another good source when Jerome gets a chance to update.
Also, part of what's happening is that we're witnessing Ukraine finally transition into a looser area defense style as opposed to active defense, which requires constant local counterattacks. Not much point in that when the orcs are crawling forward across broken glass.
To actually make this a real crisis, particularly when Ukraine has pulled a lot of its heavier formations back for repair, Moscow has got to advance more than 8 klicks in two weeks along a single axis. Next comes a week of securing the penetration while Ukraine staffs a new defense line and hits orc supply convoys.
Note also that if Ukraine pulls back from the Durna to the Vovcha it has a lovely ridge to defend from overlooking the water course. This is farther from Avdiivka, the primary orc base sustaining this front. South of there Ukraine's natural defense line runs from Vuhledar to Kurakhove. I'll start worrying about the broader operational implications of this "breakthrough" if Novooleksandrivka falls.
It took the local orc commander weeks to realize that crossing the Durna from the south was a stupid idea and shift to the north where the ground is higher and the woods along the rail line offer cover. A sub-commander in this formation apparently has figured out how to do decent tactical recon, though. Not the first time the orcs have managed an effective surprise infantry push. Yay, they rediscovered stormtrooper tactics. The same kind that bled Germany out in 1918.
In the Soviet army, some graduates of higher educational institutions served in officer positions, but everyone perfectly understood their uselessness. This was in peacetime and 30 years ago. And I can’t believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing this in war conditions. I wonder how a NATO officer who graduated from West Point will fight when he has absolutely nothing to oppose to enemy aviation and artillery?
Well you just have to take an honest look at US forces performances in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria during the past decade. Suffice to say, it is anything but impressive.
Even with total and uncontested superiority. They made huge blunder and unexplainable mistakes. Like allowing Ramadi to fall in 2015 because apparently, managing competently a multi fronts war against an impoverished light infantry opponent was too much to ask.
Thanks for the update. Its not looking good at all. We're just going to hope Europe can realize that it needs to provide as much military equipment as possible, because Biden admin will not. I find it shocking we arent producing a Patriot battery a month. We have close to a trillion spent on defence per year, $4bn for 12 Patriot batteries is nothing. Biden admin has really really played around. I wont even go to the Scholzing. I dont understand how German leaders look at things.
A ‘shallow’ question: is there really much chance that the Delayed Aid will really be quick and substantial enough to stabilise the front line?
A deeper question: must we reconcile ourseves, amid this storm of terrible news, to Ukraine’s defeat and Putin’s ability to impose his terms - ‘denazification’ and all that? Ought we to advise Ukraine to concede?
The Russian milbloggers claim exactly the same: the Russians have secured Ocheretyne and advanced up to 1 km from it. At the same time the Ukrainian officials state that ZSU control 2/3 of Ocheretyne. The ISW report of April 26 mentions the claims of Russians, the author represents the same data as facts. May I kindly ask the author to disclose his trusted sources, and why they should be trusted. And what about the Ukrainian sources?
As already explained (at least two times the last 25 days alone), I've pulled everything out of my small finger. Or copy-pasted from ISW. Or from the Putin's PRBS-industrialists. Whatever you prefer...
Mate... sigh... if you want to be sorry about anything... then about the following: when you check around this blog, you can find posts authored by other authors. You can find me, between others, collecting for the 3rd SSO. Then, if you check about my work, you can find Helion's sub-page with my short bio and a large part of my bibliography (https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php). From the same you can deduct that I've hardly ever written a single book alone: I'm nearly-always working in cooperation with somebody.
Now, it's not like this should mean I've got direct contacts to this or that unit and/or somebody there is revealing me any kind of 'super secret info'. But, if I'm good at anything in my life, then in 'neworking': in putting people into touch so they and me work together.
Why that?
Because one man/woman alone can never be so super-smart as to know everything.
But, when we're 'many', we know 'many' things (even if not 'all').
So, that's how I'm working: a bit of info from here, a bit from there, a bit from the social media... that's how the 'big picture' is coming together. There is, however, no single source explaining me 'everything', and I'm surely not depending on specific Russian, or Ukrainian, or German, or Austrian, or Finnish, or Polish, or US or whatever other bloggers and/or experts (on the contrary: I'm - intentionally - ignoring most of them, to avoid their impressions 'painting' my assessments).
And I love prompting people to THINK. To make people curious, to prompt them to move outside of their safe zone (or echo chamber), to ask questions, and to communicate.
So, if you want to be sorry about anything, then... well, be sorry for not drawing what I think are 'logical' conclusions.
"a bit of info from here, a bit from there, a bit from the social media... that's how the 'big picture' is coming together. "
The political analysis is a kind of science. If you say that the Russians have secured Ocheretyne, you must present the proof so that everyone could assess it. Your experience is relevant but not guarantee. You say that you like prompting people to think. Well, I think (and I have evidence) that you may be using wrong info, make wrong conclusions and spread them. And you aggressively decline to answer my questions about that. Which makes me think further, why. That is what I am sorry about (in fact, already not really).
Is OK. Then Ocheretyne is under the control of Ukraine. And I'm unnecessarily aggressive and a liar, too. ....and you have plentiful of evidence that you're right and I'm wrong.
Not quite. I did not call you a liar (the lies is nesessarily intentional which I can not prove), I did not say that I have a PLENTY of evidence (more so that WHOLE Ocheretyne is under the control of Ukraine), and I can not clearly see why you react on my comments that way. If you have a proof then present it, if you have only someone's words then tell that clearly. What's the problem? Nobody objects that Russians have advanced, so you still can say "everything is bad for Ukraine" if you want.
Will guess. You did not copy-paste from ISW (for example, they did not say that Russians have secured Ocheretyne). You just repeated what the Putin's PRBS-industrialists said. In lieu of other alternatives, I think that you have a specific small finger.
It is heartbreaking.
and infuriating - thanks to the MAGA Republicans who were blocking the USA aid to Ukraine for 6+ months
Restoration of artillery ammunition supply may give the Ukrainians the means to exchange fires for fires and maybe suppress some of the Russian artillery via counterbattery but I do not see how they could counter the glide bomb strikes. I see no way to be able to attack Russian aircraft 50-70 km or more on their side of the FLOT on their approach to release point. The Ukrainians will not risk putting Patriots 20 or 30 kms near the front anymore. The glide bombs are there to stay, I am afraid, and their use can only intensify in proportion to Russians getting more experienced with manufacturing the glide kits and using them
The only sane course of action I can see for the ZSU is to bomb the hell out of russian airfields to level the playing field.
You're right. Even longe-range ATACMS will only push the Russia further away and give the VKS a slightly longer flight time before they release their bombs. Suppressing Russian front-line GBAD to allow Ukrainian fighters to get closer is one response. The RAM X loitering munition may do to the Russians what they have inflicted on Ukraine with the Lancet. There's been an increase in reported GBAD kills. We don't know for sure, but, fingers crossed, RAM X is having an effect.
In my dreams, some smart Ukrainian engineers or a team from MBDA jury-rig MIG-29s to carry Meteors. Or maybe build a Meteor Franken-SAM. Either would put an end to the glide bomb campaign.
without a flying platform like the Gripen, I doubt that the Meteor can reach as far as required to clear up Ukraine skies of Russian aircraft...
The crises will culminate in 3-4 weeks from now according to Budanov. What is your stake on it?
Budanov often talks boldly, but fails to deliver. Like when he predicted Ukrainian troops on Crimean soil, before the offensive. Then when the offensive failed he landed a handful of special forces to plant a flag before being chased away.
Russia is playing the long game. It is constantly increasing the pressure on Ukraine and simultaneously improving Its own capabilities. The now meagre Western help cannot reverse this trend, not to mention Ukraine needs a lot of new troops to replace the losses and rotate the exhausted units like the 47th.
That is what i know my ask to Tom was how bad it could be in 4-5 weeks
What is my stake on that?
That a boss of a military intelligence service has absolutely nothing to search for in form of public appearances. It's not his job to provide any kind of interviews to anybody. The only place where he should be babbling around would be if the Parliament in Kyiv demands him to do so.
And his 'crisis in May' is already here. Loud and clear. And that since mid-April.
The ZSU might be in a rush to construct a new defence line, 5-10km west of Ocheretyne, but the fact is: if it is forced to withdraw from that area - and it has already lost the town - it's going to have to withdraw for some 25-50+ kilometres.
There is simply no way to describe the severety of this crisis.
well, it looks Slavyans-Kramotorsk-Pokrovsk is where the front will stabilize.
The northern sector is going to hold out. I would be very much surprised if the Russians get Chasiv Yar.
But, south of Toretsk... no idea. Too few obstacles before the line Kostyantyinivka - Selydove....
Many thanks Tom despite the fact of the awful situation. I am not fan of Budanov he is good in PR but after last year pssst....before offensive he is just one more of many in ZSU that has no clue how to lead the army in a war.
Well the west in their infinite wisdom didnt give noting to contain those glide bombs.
The frontline is gonna crack at some point somewhere and then everybody is gonna be real surprised on how did this happened as there is an expectation that outgunned and understaffed Ukrainian units can fight forever.
What could counter glide bomba?
Enough PAC, IRIS-T, NASAMS and similar SAM-systems to deploy them close to the frontline to shoot incoming Su-34s before these can release their UMPKs.
Right now, the PSU hasn't even got enough to protect more than Kyiv and Odesa...
And F-16, Gripen will be the best solution, but nobody tells why their supply is delayed that long
Because the PSU has not enough pilots nor ground personnel fluent in English to train as instructors for those who are not fluent in English.
Mind that as recently as 2020-2021, the PSU was so badly underfunded that it was losing dozens of pilots and hundreds of ground personnel a year. And then came the war, and it lost lots of pilots (including at least four slanted to become instructors because they were fluent in English) and ground personnel in combat and accidents.
I don't see it as a big problem. There is international legion in UA fighting along in ZSU. Why pilots, ground personnel can't do that as well? There are interpreters at least which can be used while training ukrainians. Are you saying Ukrainian airplanes ground personnel was involved in combat as ordinary troops?
It is a HUGE problem.
To learn to fly and fight in an F-16, you need to learn enough English to start thinking and flying that F-16 in English, too. And your ground crew needs to know what is it doing. And then your ground control.... that's not working with help of interpreters.
And yes, of course was PSU ground personnel killed and wounded too. What do you think happens whenever the Russians strike one of Ukrainian air bases? They always miss and nobody ever gets hurt?
Tom, how much of this can be blamed on the Ukrainian's seemingly cultural inability to use a shovel? i.e. last winter the Russians quietly worked their socks off building the Surovikin line, whereas the Ukrainians still think they are fighting a PR war on Twitter and trying the perfect the ultimate FPV drone video.
Can't say for sure, but my impression is that they did start digging trenches and constructing fortifications - but in entirely wrong areas. For example: east of Odesa.
WTF needs defence lines east of Odesa? The frontline is 500+ km east of there...
To get money from tax payers for useless job?
Debe ser otra muestra de la corrupción en los altos mandos ucranianos.
Along border line with Belarus as well, defence line there the most impressive ever built with over 120K troops defending the border
there was a live on youtube last night. One of the company companders was discussing this issue.
1. Both ru and ua dig exclusively by shovels.
2. ru have special forces for digging and they dig al the time. even when under fire. And they dig in very fast, very dig and very vast.
3. ua do not really dig (en mass) due to lack of order from above and lack of care from commanders on the ground.
So his take is its all about bad commanders in ua that ua troops are taking such looses. This mans syas that his company was carriyng hard looses every weeek before his assignment and after that they had only 1-2 200 in several months. Also the soldiers themself dont really care much about their security so commander should hit them hard to make dig in and do some training that saves lives.
here is the link - https://youtu.be/NJ5nQq6YUeE?t=3349
Given the glide bomb issues and the current retreat in the east. I am wondering what the likelihood is of the US allowing the Ukrainians to use ATACMS missiles to directly attack airbases in Russia or saying it's up to Ukraine what they do with the kit?
Sullivan is never going to agree with that. Against targets in Crimea - yes. But, not in Russia.
What's his deal? How can they expect for Ukraine to have a fighting chance when they restrict them to such great extent? Everyone in the west keeps on talking how Ukraine must win and we mist not let Putin seize the territory of Ukraine; yet at the same time we give so little and restrict the use of weapons so greatly?
Because they fear, fear of escalation.
1. They worry such attacks would sooner or later cause civilian casualties, and cause rally 'round the flag effect. It's happening in Belgorod already - some reports that even people who did not supported the war in the beginning have turned their mind after Ukrainian attacks. The effect could be that next mobilization would be much easier and it may turn in kind of "Great Patriotic War II" i.e. very bloody mess.
2. Russia may hand weapons to Iran or some militias to attack US bases, ships, aircraft elsewhere. So, that would drag US into the war.
Disclaimer: I do not say that I agree with that just trying to explain some reasons why USA is afraid. USA is not almighty power, they have fear and worries, too.
While I concur what you are saying; they could for example restrict the use of ATACMS strictly on military targets. Ukraine needs to do something about Russian airstrikes ASAP - one way would be to destroy the airports from where aircrafts equipped with glide bomb attacks.
Ukraine war is already a bloody mess - If Russians would go to fight "a patriotic war" because Ukraine would be able to legitemately strike their logistical hubs, depos, airfields, etc... inside Russia - well let them fight it, but they should do it inside Russia, otherwise its not a patriotic war but imperialism.
Ukraine has been sustaining Russian air strike for over 2 years - yet the West restricts them to strike back - this is just cruel and unfair. Ukrainians have suffered more than enough already.
Would Iran really dare to strike US targets and risk a war against them? I sort of doubt it; because otherwise they would - US bases, ships, etc... are already within reach of Iranian ballistic missiles.
I agree it unfair and cruel.
Iran would not strike USA directly, but it's puppet militias do it already in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
FFS - the UA air space should be closed long time ago by NATO - I don't understand why are we such spineless cowards... For the first time since very very long NATO would have a just and moral reason for intervention. The horrors and suffering brought to Ukranian for no reason is just too much for 21th century.
Closed air space would save countless lives and by now allowed Ukraine with the help of NATO air force to liberaty its territories. Yes we would be hearing nuclear speaches and red line crossing from Putin on daily basis, but who cares what he has to say. The war would be over.
Read again what you just wrote and reflect
A 'closed airspace/no-fly zone' would mean a war NATO vs Russia, and play straight into Putin's hands.
Which is why even Ukrainians do not demand anything of that kind.
Yes of course, I know. I am just fed up with how this whole situation has been handled by the west, not to mentioned how deepy sorry I feel for Ukranians... And our politicians still speak in the manner of; we must show Putin his war does not pay off for him - like he doesn't know that since Marc 2022....
Anyway, everything is slowly starting to remind of the times between 1939-1941 and hesitancy back then.
But I would be very happy to see western airforce putting Russian army back where it belongs - in Russia. This war is simply totally senseless for Russia at this point. If Putin would seize Ukraine in a month, absorb its army into his, take Ukranian economy - then yes, it would benefit him greatly, boost his moral and confidence, which would most likely lead to an assault on some other European state, riding "high" on his victory in Ukraine. In a way this is now unlikely, because Ukraine was helped to a degree where it weakend Russia to a great extent, but for a great (unacceptable?) cost of their own people and land.
But currently there is no solution on the horizon. And I doubt anyone in EU or USA has a plan what to do or is willing to do. I sort of believe if NATO would be more daring and agressive, Russia would back off - they are even more scared of a direct conflict with NATO, than our politicians. Yes Russian would talk and threaten a lot, but eventually we will have to say enough is enough. Otherwise this will be a neverending story. Pushing Russian forced out of Ukraine but not an inch more, and sealing the deal, finishig this dreadful endeavour. If this would play in Putins hand or not, we should not care. Let Russian do in Russia whatever they feel like, hate whoever they want, etc...; just let the rest of countries alone.
NATO can close the airspace above some part of Ukraine far from the frontline (say right bank of Dnipro, including Kyiv). This this would mean that NATO won't shoot russian aircraft directly, just the missiles/drones (nothing different to what was done recently for Israel). This would free up scarce Patriots/NASA's etc to be used at the from line to shoot russian Migs and SU.
If you like to busy yourself with such 'what ifs', fine with me.
It's just never going to happen. Thus, it's pointless discussing such 'options'.
Thanks Tom for this.
The pace and tempo of the air attacks with glide bombs, what tell US about the VKS sustainment and maintenance? When the war started, we Saw a complete absence of VKS at 5/6 months of sustained air campaigns because the Soviet planes are not diesigned for it. And the VKS was transitioning from a peace structire to a wartime.
So whats happen now? They got more airframes and are able to hace lots flying, plus lots having done deep maintenance so the attacks fleet is always thr same? Or also, they are producing new airframes or receiving them from China orr something?
Russian military industry is working in 3 shifts, even managing to sustain certain export volumes. Surely not the Soviet scale, but generally enough to compensate aircraft losses. Just google it.
The 'VKS absence' is an urban myth, created by Western 'experts' too lazy to research.
The VKS was around, all out, right from the start. Arguably, it couldn't fly a lot in the Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv area, the first 4-5 days of the invasion, because of disorganisation on the ground, and bad weather. Entire armies were falling apart while trying to advance into Ukraine, and it was snowing.
As soon as the weather improved, around 28 February, the VKS was in full swing there.
And, in the south, the VKS was airborne all the time, and flying hundreds of sorties.
And right now, they're flying as much as they can. The crisis with the lack of airframes and pilots was back in 2023.
So in a year they solved the lack of airframe and pilot crisis? Is that even possible?
Ukraine Control Map is reasonably reliable when it comes to unit locations.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.271166084398274%2C36.42631212686921&z=8
Militaryland.net is another good source when Jerome gets a chance to update.
Also, part of what's happening is that we're witnessing Ukraine finally transition into a looser area defense style as opposed to active defense, which requires constant local counterattacks. Not much point in that when the orcs are crawling forward across broken glass.
To actually make this a real crisis, particularly when Ukraine has pulled a lot of its heavier formations back for repair, Moscow has got to advance more than 8 klicks in two weeks along a single axis. Next comes a week of securing the penetration while Ukraine staffs a new defense line and hits orc supply convoys.
Note also that if Ukraine pulls back from the Durna to the Vovcha it has a lovely ridge to defend from overlooking the water course. This is farther from Avdiivka, the primary orc base sustaining this front. South of there Ukraine's natural defense line runs from Vuhledar to Kurakhove. I'll start worrying about the broader operational implications of this "breakthrough" if Novooleksandrivka falls.
It took the local orc commander weeks to realize that crossing the Durna from the south was a stupid idea and shift to the north where the ground is higher and the woods along the rail line offer cover. A sub-commander in this formation apparently has figured out how to do decent tactical recon, though. Not the first time the orcs have managed an effective surprise infantry push. Yay, they rediscovered stormtrooper tactics. The same kind that bled Germany out in 1918.
Thanks for the update. Lets hope the Russian has some problens that are not easily visible.
In the Soviet army, some graduates of higher educational institutions served in officer positions, but everyone perfectly understood their uselessness. This was in peacetime and 30 years ago. And I can’t believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing this in war conditions. I wonder how a NATO officer who graduated from West Point will fight when he has absolutely nothing to oppose to enemy aviation and artillery?
Well you just have to take an honest look at US forces performances in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria during the past decade. Suffice to say, it is anything but impressive.
Even with total and uncontested superiority. They made huge blunder and unexplainable mistakes. Like allowing Ramadi to fall in 2015 because apparently, managing competently a multi fronts war against an impoverished light infantry opponent was too much to ask.
Thanks Tom not looking good in these areas
Thanks for the update. Its not looking good at all. We're just going to hope Europe can realize that it needs to provide as much military equipment as possible, because Biden admin will not. I find it shocking we arent producing a Patriot battery a month. We have close to a trillion spent on defence per year, $4bn for 12 Patriot batteries is nothing. Biden admin has really really played around. I wont even go to the Scholzing. I dont understand how German leaders look at things.
A ‘shallow’ question: is there really much chance that the Delayed Aid will really be quick and substantial enough to stabilise the front line?
A deeper question: must we reconcile ourseves, amid this storm of terrible news, to Ukraine’s defeat and Putin’s ability to impose his terms - ‘denazification’ and all that? Ought we to advise Ukraine to concede?
The Russian milbloggers claim exactly the same: the Russians have secured Ocheretyne and advanced up to 1 km from it. At the same time the Ukrainian officials state that ZSU control 2/3 of Ocheretyne. The ISW report of April 26 mentions the claims of Russians, the author represents the same data as facts. May I kindly ask the author to disclose his trusted sources, and why they should be trusted. And what about the Ukrainian sources?
As already explained (at least two times the last 25 days alone), I've pulled everything out of my small finger. Or copy-pasted from ISW. Or from the Putin's PRBS-industrialists. Whatever you prefer...
Sorry.
Mate... sigh... if you want to be sorry about anything... then about the following: when you check around this blog, you can find posts authored by other authors. You can find me, between others, collecting for the 3rd SSO. Then, if you check about my work, you can find Helion's sub-page with my short bio and a large part of my bibliography (https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php). From the same you can deduct that I've hardly ever written a single book alone: I'm nearly-always working in cooperation with somebody.
Now, it's not like this should mean I've got direct contacts to this or that unit and/or somebody there is revealing me any kind of 'super secret info'. But, if I'm good at anything in my life, then in 'neworking': in putting people into touch so they and me work together.
Why that?
Because one man/woman alone can never be so super-smart as to know everything.
But, when we're 'many', we know 'many' things (even if not 'all').
So, that's how I'm working: a bit of info from here, a bit from there, a bit from the social media... that's how the 'big picture' is coming together. There is, however, no single source explaining me 'everything', and I'm surely not depending on specific Russian, or Ukrainian, or German, or Austrian, or Finnish, or Polish, or US or whatever other bloggers and/or experts (on the contrary: I'm - intentionally - ignoring most of them, to avoid their impressions 'painting' my assessments).
And I love prompting people to THINK. To make people curious, to prompt them to move outside of their safe zone (or echo chamber), to ask questions, and to communicate.
So, if you want to be sorry about anything, then... well, be sorry for not drawing what I think are 'logical' conclusions.
"a bit of info from here, a bit from there, a bit from the social media... that's how the 'big picture' is coming together. "
The political analysis is a kind of science. If you say that the Russians have secured Ocheretyne, you must present the proof so that everyone could assess it. Your experience is relevant but not guarantee. You say that you like prompting people to think. Well, I think (and I have evidence) that you may be using wrong info, make wrong conclusions and spread them. And you aggressively decline to answer my questions about that. Which makes me think further, why. That is what I am sorry about (in fact, already not really).
Is OK. Then Ocheretyne is under the control of Ukraine. And I'm unnecessarily aggressive and a liar, too. ....and you have plentiful of evidence that you're right and I'm wrong.
Happy now?
Not quite. I did not call you a liar (the lies is nesessarily intentional which I can not prove), I did not say that I have a PLENTY of evidence (more so that WHOLE Ocheretyne is under the control of Ukraine), and I can not clearly see why you react on my comments that way. If you have a proof then present it, if you have only someone's words then tell that clearly. What's the problem? Nobody objects that Russians have advanced, so you still can say "everything is bad for Ukraine" if you want.
Will guess. You did not copy-paste from ISW (for example, they did not say that Russians have secured Ocheretyne). You just repeated what the Putin's PRBS-industrialists said. In lieu of other alternatives, I think that you have a specific small finger.