Ukraine War, 26 April 2024

Hello everybody!

Up front: special thanks for all the positive reactions to my request to support the collection of 3rd SSO’s Shark UAV. Much appreciated!

I’m sorry for lacking time to answer all the personal messages: there are, really far too many.

Let me just observe that yes, like so many of you, I’m meanwhile sure we’re going to get together not only ‘our part’, but indeed, the entire sum for that Shark.

***

For today, another short update on developments in the north-west of the Avdiika sector of the frontline.

Why that? I.e. why this ‘insistence’ and ‘focus on just this sector’?

For many reasons. It’s a crisis threatening to result in a major loss of terrain for Ukraine: if this battle continues developing the way it is developing since around 15-17 April, the ZSU will be forced to fall back for another 10-15km, approximately to the line connecting Novooalekandrivka in the north, Kmyshivka, and - via the Karlivka Reservoir - Karlivka in the south.

….which in turn would then result in not only complete destruction, but also the loss of Netaliove and Karlivka, plus Novoselivka Persha, Umanske and few other places. Of course, from few thousands of kilometres away, it’s easy to say things like, ‘ah, who cares about another Ukrainian village’… but: think what would you say if one of these villages would be your own home…

As next, mind that this battle is also a dramatic demonstration of difference between well-developed set of fortifications in the Avdiivka area, which held out all the Russian onslaughts for nearly two years, and rush-rush-hurry-up-style of defences constructed further west, the last two months.

If that’s not enough, already now it can be safely concluded that it is a crisis that has resulted in heavy- and (worst of all) avoidable losses for the ZSU. At the time the ZSU is short on infantry, several companies from multiple ZSU brigades (not only the 115th) have been decimated - and that in ‘mere’ 8-9 days of fighting. Moreover, Ukrainians have lost a number of - de-facto ‘irreplaceable’ - Western-supplied armoured fighting vehicles, like M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks, and M2/M3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

A captured Leo 2 as seen while being towed away by the Russians…

It’s also an example for how easily it can happen for the Russians to achieve a break-through, whenever Ukrainians are not cautious enough. And they’ve got to be cautious all the time. Literally: ‘24/7’. Means: this can happen on other sectors of the frontline, too.

It’s a good example for why further, even more sweeping reforms of the ZSU are urgently necessary. Especially in regards of the (‘Soviet-Union-inherited’) practice of appointing… well: simply ‘wrong people’ (like university graduates) in command positions. University degree is no indication the person in question has any kind of command skills. Only that his or her vocabulary is a bit richer…

Finally, it’s a good example for how break-through operations in the second year of this war are conducted (even if not necessarily for how they are supposed to be conducted).

With other words: this battle stands ‘symbolic’ for all too many things.

***

Now, what’s going on ‘there’, in the Ocheretyne area?

Mind: I can’t say I’ve got all the pieces of puzzle, but the ‘fog of war’ is clearing by day.

Essentially…

Over the last two days, the Russians have continued their all-out pushes in the Ocheretyne area. The main drive is run by the 15th and 30th Motor-Rifle Brigades: the Russians are not only holding the town but advancing from it in western and southern direction, plus trying to mop up remaining Ukrainian positions in the north of the town. I only do not know which of these two brigades is responsible for what sector.

With help of relentless air strikes, they have forced Ukrainians about 1,000 metres west from Ocheretyne.

Right now, I have no clear idea what ZSU units are fighting exactly where. Can only say that time and again, the 47th Mech is still releasing brief videos showing its M2/M3 Bradleys on the western approaches to Ocheretyne - which can be seen as being hit by Russian air strikes (apparently: UMPK glide bombs). Like in this case:

…and that the 47th Mech is known to have lost some 5-6 Bradleys the last 3-4 days…

Something like my ‘best guess’ is that the OSG Tavriya (the ZSU headquarters responsible for this sector) has deployed the 100th Mechanised Brigade (the former 100th Territorial Defence Brigade from the Volyn Oblast) on the northern side of the Russian penetration. The 25th Airborne Brigade might be in position west and south of Ocheretyne.

If so , the Russians do not even really have a ‘3-to-1’ advantage in troops, as widely claimed: it’s their air strikes and artillery, combined with the lack of Ukrainian fortifications, that are making the difference. The Russians are really pummeling any Ukrainian position they can find - foremost with UMPK glide bombs, but also with BM-21s, BM-27s, and BM-30s multiple rocket launchers (MRLS’).

South of Ocheretyne, the Russians have savaged Soloviove with about a dozen of volleys from MRLS’, plus several air strikes. Then assaulted and taken most of the ruined village. I guess that they’ve deployed elements of the 90th Tank Division for this purpose.

One of at least a dozen of MRLS-volleys that hit ZSU positions (most likely held by the 47th Mech), in Soloviove, before the place was stormed by the Russians, on 24 April.

The same division (90th Tank) is - probably - involved in pounding positions of the 115th Mech and the Skala battalion in the Novokalynove area, too. This barrage is accompanied by plentiful of UMPK-strikes. Yesterday, the 277th Spetsnaz Battalion and 228th Motor-Rifle Regiment have managed to advance into the eastern side of this village, in direction of Keramik.

The 47th Mech is still holding out in Berdychi, but the 3rd Assault has lost Semenivka: the ZSU can't bring in reinforcements and/or supplies when the roads leading from Novoselivka Persha are continuously pounded by the Russian artillery… which in turn means that air strikes by the VKS and artillery barrages by the VSRF are effective in sense of ‘sealing’ the battlefield.

….all of which is resulting in the map of this sector of the battlefield looking something like this:

....and further in the rear…?

Well, yes, the Russians are - bitterly - complaining about activities of Ukrainian UAVs up to 30km behind the frontline. Heavier types of these are meanwhile striking their artillery and even forward headquarters.

I remain worried about the Russian ability to continue exploiting the weaknesses of the PSU's air defence, though: essentially, their UAVs are roaming Dnipro (city) on search for any kind of 'storage facilities'. Whatever is looking like ‘big garage/hangar’ is then declared for ‘storage site for Western weapons’ by the Keystone Cops in Moscow and targeted by S-300s, BM-27s and BM-30s (the still from a video below is showing a strike with cluster ammunition on some sort of ‘industrial zone’ about 10km south-west of Dnipropetrovsk).