Brilliantly explained, what a murky topic and another illustration that however shiny and sophisticated a system may be, the simplest weakness can bring it all tumbling down!
Fascinating topic. IFF is a staple in military SF, but apart from the general idea not discussed much. There is obviously an opportunity for a daring hero with a good software team here. It did not help me in any way, except illuminating me. I am also struck by how much Israel has been helped by superior technology. I am not denying the pilots and crews dedication, but here in the West we tend to ignore that the other guy can be just an imaginative and dedicated. But wrongly equipped.
On the matter of 10-20-30% corruption. I often hear such numbers voiced out in the West, but from what I understood so far of the system, this may only be true for smaller bosses, like those on the ground. They have their cut too.
But for larger boss, that issues orders and approves budgets, especially in projects that have virtually no market to compare, because of "special military requirements", anything less then 50% is considered to be pure philanthropy.
And sure every hangar was at the price of small and cosy suburban house of 500 m2, with landscaping of the garden included.
For example, I heard tales from UA people, that when Yanukovich (runaway UA president) started to make things "straight", how it should be (in his view), 30-40% on the road construction was considered normal, even Germans were ready to pay 10-20% to be a cotractor. But he said, you had it completely wrong way all this time, 30-40% should go to those who builds the road. LOL
Your thoughts about Belarus? As much as power they hold it's not logical for them to be involved but as they are losing the remaining parts of their independence recently, it's completely about the Russians who have all those troubles now.... And they won't give a ... anything.
I _was_ not worried about them, but right now I am.
Nothing. If Lukashenko didn't join the invasion in February 2022, he'll never do that.
Meanwhile, he's handed over much of heavy equipment and most of ammunition stocks of his army to Pudding: now nothing was left for Belarussian forces to fight.
Very logical, and that's why I _was_ not worried so far.
What I'm worried about is that whether Lukashenko still has any say in the matter, and whether the Russians are desperate enough to drive them in something so senseless: with shovels, if that's all they have.
He does have a say: at least since the Wagner mutiny, he crystalised as 'negotiator' and 'one of sane voices' on that side of the curtain.
That said, no matter how desperate Pudding might be, and what pressure is he exercising, Lukashenko is not letting himself get deeper involved. And Pudding needs him as an ally.
On the other hand, I'm sure they both know that the Belarusian army might mutiny against Lukashenko if he orders it into Ukraine. The border between Belarus and Ukraine is 1,200km long: Russia can't properly hold the 1,000km with Ukraine, but Lukashenko's army should do that with 100,000 troops now critically short on heavy weapons and ammunition, and staffed by troops that know very well about all the Russian casualties?
....not everybody is as disillusioned as Pudding...
The main impediment to Luka going to war are the sentiments inside the country. If he fully mobilized and gave the order to cross the border, there's about a 50/50 chance that at least a few of his generals will decide that going to Minsk would be a much easier task (amd more popular with the soldiers and the people) than trying to breach Ukrainian border defenses. And if this happens, expect a nation wide uprising. The only reason Luka survived the last one was the military. But if he asks the military to go die for Putin, they are unlikely to protect him.
Canada is going F-35 soon and this has raised the issues about hangers, most of our hangers are to old, to small and to outdated for the F-35. There is some debate about having semi-hardened shelters to protect these expensive assets against drones flown by terrorists, etc.
Great descriptions of the other stuff as well, thank you.
Super interesting answers ( pushed me to subscribe lol ) ! Thank you Tom !! With the country operating Western aircraft and Russian-made SAMs you are referring to Finland ? F/A -18s and Buks
Thanks for all this Tom!
Brilliantly explained, what a murky topic and another illustration that however shiny and sophisticated a system may be, the simplest weakness can bring it all tumbling down!
Fascinating topic. IFF is a staple in military SF, but apart from the general idea not discussed much. There is obviously an opportunity for a daring hero with a good software team here. It did not help me in any way, except illuminating me. I am also struck by how much Israel has been helped by superior technology. I am not denying the pilots and crews dedication, but here in the West we tend to ignore that the other guy can be just an imaginative and dedicated. But wrongly equipped.
For Poland It took roughly 8 months since signing contract to deployment of first Saab 340 AEW.
How long was Poland a NATO-member before that, an for how long did its air force teach its airmen in English?
Poland has also had AWACS personnel in NATO missions.
Thank you Tom!
On the matter of 10-20-30% corruption. I often hear such numbers voiced out in the West, but from what I understood so far of the system, this may only be true for smaller bosses, like those on the ground. They have their cut too.
But for larger boss, that issues orders and approves budgets, especially in projects that have virtually no market to compare, because of "special military requirements", anything less then 50% is considered to be pure philanthropy.
And sure every hangar was at the price of small and cosy suburban house of 500 m2, with landscaping of the garden included.
For example, I heard tales from UA people, that when Yanukovich (runaway UA president) started to make things "straight", how it should be (in his view), 30-40% on the road construction was considered normal, even Germans were ready to pay 10-20% to be a cotractor. But he said, you had it completely wrong way all this time, 30-40% should go to those who builds the road. LOL
Do Turks have similar problems with their S-400? (My impression it that purchase was a pure political decision, wasn't it?)
Did the Turks ever make their S400s operational?
Now they are selling them, one owner, never used,
Nope.. they have installed their own IFF on S-400s. Precisely that was one of reasons why the USA reacted 'allegically'.
Dear Tom, watching a fresh video of Iskander presumable hit of Buk-M1:
https://t.me/anna_news/70050
I have question: what are the chances that Finland supplied Ukraine with its redundant SA-17, delivered in early 90s to set off Soviet debt?
A BM-30 or Iskander-M yes - hit a hangar. Whether anything was inside... who can say?
Re. Finnish SA-17s: depends on their replacement. If anything is available: 1000% sure.
Thanks for another interesting report Tom I know little about these things but now know just a bit more
Thanks for the post
Your thoughts about Belarus? As much as power they hold it's not logical for them to be involved but as they are losing the remaining parts of their independence recently, it's completely about the Russians who have all those troubles now.... And they won't give a ... anything.
I _was_ not worried about them, but right now I am.
Nothing. If Lukashenko didn't join the invasion in February 2022, he'll never do that.
Meanwhile, he's handed over much of heavy equipment and most of ammunition stocks of his army to Pudding: now nothing was left for Belarussian forces to fight.
Very logical, and that's why I _was_ not worried so far.
What I'm worried about is that whether Lukashenko still has any say in the matter, and whether the Russians are desperate enough to drive them in something so senseless: with shovels, if that's all they have.
They did so with their (supposed) own.
Anyway, we'll see.
He does have a say: at least since the Wagner mutiny, he crystalised as 'negotiator' and 'one of sane voices' on that side of the curtain.
That said, no matter how desperate Pudding might be, and what pressure is he exercising, Lukashenko is not letting himself get deeper involved. And Pudding needs him as an ally.
On the other hand, I'm sure they both know that the Belarusian army might mutiny against Lukashenko if he orders it into Ukraine. The border between Belarus and Ukraine is 1,200km long: Russia can't properly hold the 1,000km with Ukraine, but Lukashenko's army should do that with 100,000 troops now critically short on heavy weapons and ammunition, and staffed by troops that know very well about all the Russian casualties?
....not everybody is as disillusioned as Pudding...
The main impediment to Luka going to war are the sentiments inside the country. If he fully mobilized and gave the order to cross the border, there's about a 50/50 chance that at least a few of his generals will decide that going to Minsk would be a much easier task (amd more popular with the soldiers and the people) than trying to breach Ukrainian border defenses. And if this happens, expect a nation wide uprising. The only reason Luka survived the last one was the military. But if he asks the military to go die for Putin, they are unlikely to protect him.
what is the best site to get information on Russian losses?
Try this one, it aggregates various sources: https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a
Very much appreciated Tom, thank you 👍
Looks like the hangar where i spent 12 months of my life was a bit more solid than your pictures.
Mine was nuke-safe :-)
Had my daughter read and explain this to me. She then said, kindly of course, 'Dad, is it time for your lobotomy?'
Thank you for all of that. Great information to have.
Canada is going F-35 soon and this has raised the issues about hangers, most of our hangers are to old, to small and to outdated for the F-35. There is some debate about having semi-hardened shelters to protect these expensive assets against drones flown by terrorists, etc.
Great descriptions of the other stuff as well, thank you.
Super interesting answers ( pushed me to subscribe lol ) ! Thank you Tom !! With the country operating Western aircraft and Russian-made SAMs you are referring to Finland ? F/A -18s and Buks