Hello everybody! Once again, cannot but start this one in exactly the same fashion like two days ago. It remains nothing but ridiculous to see all the US self-congratulations, nor all the possible mainstream- and social media outlets celebrating the US ‘aid package’ for Ukraine. Interestingly, its ‘value’ is also increasing by the day. Some are meanwhile babbling about US$ 90 billion… Thus, time to put few things within their relations.
"In fashion typical for modern-day economies, the value of the aid package is calculated in terms of new equipment that’s going to be purchased for the US armed forces, to replace stored equipment sent to Ukraine. Or to manufacture additional ammunition"
This is a fair reading of of how the standard US government accounting practice works. But it is possible to step around that in ways that are not illegal but can be cumbersome. I assume the lag time waiting about for the majority of congress to agree to sideline the pro Putin crowd will have allowed the admin time to come up with cost savings. Some things have no replacements in the US arsenal - cluster munitions. Bradleys that can't power ann active defense system, MRAPS that are not going to be replaced. I assume a Patriot will have to accounted at replacement cost but even that might if pulled out of use might be libial for depreciation. in valuation.
And there's initial acquisition price twenty years ago, and the cost of replacement with new weapon, etc
(eg, an F-16 when was ordered in the eighties it might have had a flyaway cost of 30 million dollars , and today's Block 70 might be costing 95+ million apiece, etc)
West politicians are weak and indecisive, that’s the main problem. During recent 3-4 days ZSU had decided to "open their HIMARS" stocks a little bit. In net result: a good half dozen of S300/350/400 launchers, radars and similar AD staff. Footages are easy to find even in open source social media. Meaning: supply, supply, supply! Main problem is lack of weapons, minor, but still very important, probs are bureaucracy, corruption, soviet-style commanders etc.
West politicians are weak and indecisive ... because West citizens are weak a comfortable. And that's what Putin has said about the West and why he believes he may win the war.
I heard something about that initiative. I'm probably influenced by my Czech friends who generally have a low opinion of Slovaks - probably focused on the government.
That's fantastic. There are readily available charts showing how much different governments donate measured by their GDP, but I haven't found a list of private citizens donating by country. This would be hard to track given all the efforts raising money from many nations.
I am curious what happens after arms dealer hears about ‘receiver’s cut’? Does he really say "oh no i am honest businessman" or like this? Frankly speaking have no clue how this works, just always had impression this is usual environment for them.
To find these people just look for Ukrainian children attending UK private boarding schools. When I asked a friend's son what his Ukrainian friend's dad did. He just said he is an arms dealer for the Ukrainian government.
There is one mistake in the text. ZSU officers are not responsible for concluding arms supply contracts with arms dealers, manufacturers abroad or domestically. This is the competence of Ministry of Defence of UA in government authority and their daughter agencies like Agency of defence supplies currently.
However due to not so far ago corruption scandals in arms supply in expense of UA state budget funds, there were tens of billions UAH amounts total expenses in prepayments made to third party arms dealers (lately appeared to be affiliated with UA government officials) abroad but without any ammo supply for over a year or so to Ukraine.
This doesn't automatically mean it is something illegal. This businesses is very profitable (in general, not only in Ukraine and not only now; it always has been). Of course, killing people is wrong. This is why we have the Nobel prizes...
Ukraine is no more corrupt than any other country, including yours. It's just there's someone who needs the world to think this way in order to prevent any kind of aid to Ukraine. This kind of brainwashing is very effective (as your comment confirms).
You take it to much personally. Even if there high corruption in UA still, it does not mean West should stop support it. Even if there are wrong commanders in ZSU, it does not mean West should stop support it. O'right? Suppressing own problems does not move you forward.
It is the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe, after Russia. Corruption is at every level, from top to bottom, in every area. Stealing is as natural as breathing. There has been 0 meaningful improvement since the invasion started. Do not compare civilised countries, to whatever this is. People this corrupt and treasonous, who are happy to see their neighbour's son die in the trenches, as long as they steal their supplies, do not deserve to have a country. We now see why there has never been a Ukrainian state.
Don't know if vast majority do. However, I do know, that an enormous amount of aid of all kind, is provided by individual citizens in NATO countries. However, all this while lovely and heartwarming, does not change the fact, that most of this should be provided by the Ukrainian government, through official channels.
Also, many foreign aid volunteers in Ukraine, say the same thing. They now only work with 1 or 2 units to establish trust, transfer aid only in person, and ideally directly to the lowest level officers and soldiers. Otherwise, their supplies will usually be stolen and never reach the actual combat troops. Aid gets stolen by commanders (and their cronies) at every level, except for those in direct combat (well it's their lives that depend on it). It gets stolen on route by couriers. Stolen from army stores by logistics officers etc. The only way to guarantee that drones, vehicles, weapon optics, cameras etc. get to the actual soldiers that need it, is to bring it directly to them.
How many Ukrainians have been convicted for corruption/theft/treason and sentenced to life or, preferably, death? How many commanders, who sent whistleblowers on suicide missions to shut them up, have been sentenced to death or at least to life in prison, by military courts?
There is plenty from Ukrainian sources, not difficult to find, but you are not trying to be honest, are you? If you cannot find it yourself, then I am certainly not going to do it for you.
Deep State Map has mainly a Ukrainian reach, and all their jars are filled in a few days (and they collect money for troops quite often). But I agree that a lot of common people in the EU are donating regularly, and this is great and heart warming. Of course when you to deliver the help in person you are sure it goes where you wanted. The government is responsible with many things and has many priorities. But in the end it is a question of money, and the money are never enough in a war torned country :(
Oh really? How did you 'calculate' that '2nd place' ?? Tell us more.
Again: Ukrainian corruption is just the same as anywhere else or SMALLER than in 'civilised' countries. It's just better hidden simply because corrupt westerners are more professional and have long tail of experience. But it would soon surface in the wake of an ‘extreme' situation (like WAR, btw). Whereas, Ukrainian corruption is simply well 'advertised' by a huge, decades-long PR campaign.
About Ukraine - sorry, you are clueless and brainwashed (at least) and now arguing with someone who knows better what's going on in Ukraine.
"...happy to see their neighbour's son die in the trenches...", "...do not deserve to have a country...", "...there has never been a Ukrainian state..."
That's from putin & orban's template, word for word. Careful, troll.
The ranking above from before the war presumably means nothing to you. If you had at least 2 working brain cells, you would at least try to argue that Ukraine are getting to the corruption level of Bosnia, Moldova or even Hungary. Instead, like a complete tool, you are comparing corruption in Ukraine, to Western Europe, the least corrupt region on Earth.
Westerners have a long history of fighting all sorts of wars and no, we have never degenerated to the level of Ukraine.
Also, careful or what? If you're Ukrainian, why aren't you fighting but instead sitting on your ass writing idiotic propaganda? Unless, that's what you are paid for. I thought Syrskyi had already moved your useless asses to the front.
Agree. The corruption emerges from bureaucrats who are in power, like in many democratic EU countries. Ukraine is not different in that regard, except it still has no so potent judiciary system to overcome it.
From someone from the West, it is very hard to understand. They don't have a reference for it. I am from Romania, and we have been through communism, and we have experienced high level corruption for decades. In communism at a certain point people from the party in power were behaving like everything is theirs, at all levels of power (from the countryside representative up to the government). But what is more intriguing to me is when I see people from Moldova. Moldova was a part of Romania before WW2, when it was taken by the USSR (and Putin wants it back). Most people from the West see Moldova like a former soviet republic, but it's more complicated than that. However, being that they are Romanians, I tend to compare Moldova with Romania. Yet, it is very different and very far behind (no offence) also in corruption but also in other habits. And then I cannot but conclude that in the former communist countries it was bad enough, but in the USSR it was far worst. This probably applies to Ukraine as well...
Dont over-estimate Western countries. We have plenty of corruptions here too. Although it can take more esoteric forms than the basic old school receiver tax or retro commission system.
Just so you know, a third of France state budget goes to fill the pocket of private sector business. Which is why we never had so many millionaires & billionaires. Who in return make it rain on politicians while the country is heading straight to bankruptcy.
Do you (or French people) have to bribe a policeman every time they stop you? Do you have to bribe a customs or border agent whenever you cross the border? Do you have to bribe a civil servant every time you need a permission for something? Do you need to bribe doctors to get better treatment? No, you really don't know what genuine corrupt rot is. Comparing corruption in France to Ukraine is like comparing the murder rate of Honduras to Japan.
1) Road police. That was the case like 20 years ago. They used to stop drivers, start searching for anything illegal or broken in the car, and that would continue for an hour unless the driver gives them some money. Nowadays they don't do that. However, one may usually redeem oneself with a bribe (which is lower than the official penalty) if found violating traffic rules.
2) Customs are interested in bribes when they see any expensive equipment or goods sent over the border. They don't stop ordinary citizens.
3) Civil servants may be given money (if you know the correct way to do that) to get you through without waiting in queues for days. Also, they say there are huge bribes around everything related to building construction.
4) Doctors live from bribes because their salaries are extremely low. However, those "bribes" are small - a bone surgery costs about $1000, a consultation with a specialist is below $40, and I had my neck muscles treated with electricity for below $10 per hour. I believe such bribes make the medicine in Ukraine much more accessible to 90% of the population than it is in the West.
Thus I have to say that you overestimate the extent of corruption in Ukraine in the daily life. Probably you have not been to the country for decades.
Mt former boss was Italian. He said the same. "There is corruption in Italy, too, but it is brought to a much higher level of sophistication" :)) Also the situation wirlth the state budget filling private business pockets is wide-spread, I guess. Private businesses always criticise the state, but are always happy to get the state money. The state is the best customer.
My sister in law got a two on some of her final exams because her mother didn't bribe the teacher. She is fluent in English and those that got As weren't able to speak the language. That is not happening in Europe.
As always a big thank you for the update, Tom. The situation for Ukraine is more grim each day, if it wasn’t for his troop resilience. Even the less know, no PRed units.
The actual political situation have echoes of Poland 1939, but the war per se reminds me more of the Fino-Soviet war: a small country stopping the onslaught of the (seemingly) gigantic ruZZian juggernaut. But now as then, the small “David” need our help to prevail on the invasive “Goliath”, and seems that our “Cosmopolitans” aren’t in a hurry.. except for lavishly supply the God Chosen ones to do the same that ruZZian orcs do best: bombing civilians.
Thanks, Tom. It’s not realistic to expect Ukraine to become self-sufficient in their arms supply. They need to concentrate on two-three things that West wouldn’t provide or not in sufficient quantities: long-range missiles , drones and something else where they have some edge
There's only one thing which is not realistic today for Ukraine and which West wouldn't provide: modern military aircraft. The rest - just need a bit more time.
I'm not celebrating, but it's sad fact, that West all together is so incompetent, that the situation went to the point when without this package the UA defense could easily collapse in some weeks/months.
What's more sad is, that with better support there could be 180° turned situation - Russians near collapse. It could be much cheaper than it's going to be (lives, money, time...)
Allow me to conclude with one quote: "You can always count on the help of the Americans, just after they have tried all other options," Sir Winston Churchill
Putin must be high as a kite then. There are only a small steps left to Putin The Great. When Ukraine falls then thats a done deal. Just a matter of reeducating those misguided little russians but overall empire is back and central asian republics will be a nice bonus (as no one will be protecting them from Russian SMO-s). That would seal him into Russian history as one of its greatest rulers.
Only that Ukrainian "virus" is standing in the way of glory
The war is not over and victory is far for both sides now. UA can loose some territory or also there can be another civil war in russia. Also with central asia it is not as easy. If Putin wins in UA he still will be very weak and China can easily stop RU attacking Kazachstan. China don't need strong RU. Azerbajdzan will be protected by Turkey .
I'm wondering if it wouldn't be helpful if someone or a group to put together a set of maps that overlay Ukraine cities and regions over Western countries so the electorate of Western "allies" (with friends like them, who needs enemies) can better relate to the sizes, distances and locations involved in the Ukraine conflict. If Sevastopol were labeled "New Miami", Melitopol - "New Orlando", Kharkiv - New Charlotte" , Kyiv - "New DC" ...etc then (for this case example) American's could better relate to the size and scope of the conflict and begin to conceptualize the communities that are being decimated in Ukrainian's struggle for survival. (Please forgive the fact that this strategy panders to American Imperialism, but you have to meet your market where it lies.) From this conceptual map, one can better appreciate that Ukraine is fighting along a front line roughly equivalent to the length of the US Eastern Seaboard (population ~120M) with a (starting) population less than 1/3 of that. That might adjust the cobwebs in enough minds to appreciate just how many resources are required for Ukraine to have a fighting chance at survival and thence offer more than token gestures of assistance.
Not every weapon became effective. Some of them can be improved, maybe with ATACM UA will be able to destroy GPS jammers and so helps other weapons or in worst case they can be fired as decoys, because they are cheap
It's so sad to read your thoughts about corruption in Ukraine. But I confirm every word. Corruption is a norm, to steal something from state(budget) is a norm, to take other personal belongings left unattended is a norm. All reforms require immense pressure from EU/USA/IMF etc. We are changing but extremely slow. And I think one of the reasons of this war - is current underdevelopment of country in big part due to a corruption.
Tom, about the valuation of US material aid, it's all net book value, not replacement value, as Badhwar points out. But the issue, including with the latest Congressional package, is that not enough replacement funding is allocated relative to the PDA (drawdown) authority level, so Biden is left in a place where he has been/will be forced to choose between executing all his legal authorities and pleasing the generals who want every bullet backfilled ASAP for the sake of complete spreadsheets or whatnot.
But don't underrate Western aid overall in its contribution to Ukrainian survival, nevertheless. We're talking about something like 1000 tanks, 1000 IFVs, 1000 artillery guns, 4+ million large-caliber shells, many thousands of AFVs over two years. Without all this aid - limited as it is relative to the scale of the Russian military - the ZSU would be, at best, in the position of the Red Army in 1941.
sounds bad
"In fashion typical for modern-day economies, the value of the aid package is calculated in terms of new equipment that’s going to be purchased for the US armed forces, to replace stored equipment sent to Ukraine. Or to manufacture additional ammunition"
This is a fair reading of of how the standard US government accounting practice works. But it is possible to step around that in ways that are not illegal but can be cumbersome. I assume the lag time waiting about for the majority of congress to agree to sideline the pro Putin crowd will have allowed the admin time to come up with cost savings. Some things have no replacements in the US arsenal - cluster munitions. Bradleys that can't power ann active defense system, MRAPS that are not going to be replaced. I assume a Patriot will have to accounted at replacement cost but even that might if pulled out of use might be libial for depreciation. in valuation.
And there's initial acquisition price twenty years ago, and the cost of replacement with new weapon, etc
(eg, an F-16 when was ordered in the eighties it might have had a flyaway cost of 30 million dollars , and today's Block 70 might be costing 95+ million apiece, etc)
West politicians are weak and indecisive, that’s the main problem. During recent 3-4 days ZSU had decided to "open their HIMARS" stocks a little bit. In net result: a good half dozen of S300/350/400 launchers, radars and similar AD staff. Footages are easy to find even in open source social media. Meaning: supply, supply, supply! Main problem is lack of weapons, minor, but still very important, probs are bureaucracy, corruption, soviet-style commanders etc.
West politicians are weak and indecisive ... because West citizens are weak a comfortable. And that's what Putin has said about the West and why he believes he may win the war.
not all (see Slovakian, Baltic countries, Czech private initiatives), but most...
Slovaks?
46k citizens in Slovakia raised 2.9 million euros for the Czech ammo initiative for Ukraine. They're doing what their government won't.
https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-crowd-fund-ammunition-ukraine-robert-fico/
I heard something about that initiative. I'm probably influenced by my Czech friends who generally have a low opinion of Slovaks - probably focused on the government.
So far its closer to 4m € https://www.municiapreukrajinu.sk/en (the aim is now to be at 1€ per Slovak citizen = 5m €)
BTW 31m € already raised for direct military help https://www.weaponstoukraine.com/ (not only CZ but SK, HU, EU ...people are donating here as well)
Drone initiative https://www.dronynemesis.cz/en raised so far 6m €
People in need raised 188m € for humanitarian help https://www.peopleinneed.net/what-we-do/humanitarian-aid-and-development/ukraine (also funded internationally)
and there are also other NGO helping and getting funda for non lethal or humanitarian aid
In total CZ initiatives raised 240m € thats average 21€ per CZ citizen in 2 years of this bloody criminal war
Just imagine if EU/US... citizens donated just 1€/$ in average what a fund could be collected
That's fantastic. There are readily available charts showing how much different governments donate measured by their GDP, but I haven't found a list of private citizens donating by country. This would be hard to track given all the efforts raising money from many nations.
There's a lot of things I can imagine.
I am curious what happens after arms dealer hears about ‘receiver’s cut’? Does he really say "oh no i am honest businessman" or like this? Frankly speaking have no clue how this works, just always had impression this is usual environment for them.
It's not even a question of 'being a honest businessman': they do not prosecute the option, because they know they're not going to get paid.
The arms then might find their way to Ukraine, but 3-6 months later. Or not at all.
Presently, they have more than enough alternatives.
To find these people just look for Ukrainian children attending UK private boarding schools. When I asked a friend's son what his Ukrainian friend's dad did. He just said he is an arms dealer for the Ukrainian government.
Could be. I do happen to know about one or the other, but: have no such contacts to Ukrainians abroad.
Mind that the mass of my research work is related to the Middle East and Africa:
https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php
There is one mistake in the text. ZSU officers are not responsible for concluding arms supply contracts with arms dealers, manufacturers abroad or domestically. This is the competence of Ministry of Defence of UA in government authority and their daughter agencies like Agency of defence supplies currently.
However due to not so far ago corruption scandals in arms supply in expense of UA state budget funds, there were tens of billions UAH amounts total expenses in prepayments made to third party arms dealers (lately appeared to be affiliated with UA government officials) abroad but without any ammo supply for over a year or so to Ukraine.
This doesn't automatically mean it is something illegal. This businesses is very profitable (in general, not only in Ukraine and not only now; it always has been). Of course, killing people is wrong. This is why we have the Nobel prizes...
Got it. Thank you.
Yes. Yes. Yes. And the Ukrainians who fight on the ground do not owe anything to anybody.
Yep, 37mil. EUR got lost in contract for mortar munition form Croatia https://unn.ua/en/news/oleksiy-khoroshayev-a-defendant-in-the-case-of-non-fulfillment-of-the-contract-between-the-ministry-of-defense-and-lviv-arsenal-said-that-the-ammunition-was Etc. etc. Good to write it. Ukraine was totally corrupted state before 2014 and it's not easy to change it overnight. Although they have made a big leap to fight the corruption, such kind of change takes at least 2 generations, because it's not about rules only, people mindset has to change.
BTW. EU countries do also overprice the old stuff they send to UA.
Ukraine is no more corrupt than any other country, including yours. It's just there's someone who needs the world to think this way in order to prevent any kind of aid to Ukraine. This kind of brainwashing is very effective (as your comment confirms).
You take it to much personally. Even if there high corruption in UA still, it does not mean West should stop support it. Even if there are wrong commanders in ZSU, it does not mean West should stop support it. O'right? Suppressing own problems does not move you forward.
It is the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe, after Russia. Corruption is at every level, from top to bottom, in every area. Stealing is as natural as breathing. There has been 0 meaningful improvement since the invasion started. Do not compare civilised countries, to whatever this is. People this corrupt and treasonous, who are happy to see their neighbour's son die in the trenches, as long as they steal their supplies, do not deserve to have a country. We now see why there has never been a Ukrainian state.
And still, the vast majority of the Ukrainians is donating for the soldiers and doing its best, from the scarce it has.
Don't know if vast majority do. However, I do know, that an enormous amount of aid of all kind, is provided by individual citizens in NATO countries. However, all this while lovely and heartwarming, does not change the fact, that most of this should be provided by the Ukrainian government, through official channels.
Also, many foreign aid volunteers in Ukraine, say the same thing. They now only work with 1 or 2 units to establish trust, transfer aid only in person, and ideally directly to the lowest level officers and soldiers. Otherwise, their supplies will usually be stolen and never reach the actual combat troops. Aid gets stolen by commanders (and their cronies) at every level, except for those in direct combat (well it's their lives that depend on it). It gets stolen on route by couriers. Stolen from army stores by logistics officers etc. The only way to guarantee that drones, vehicles, weapon optics, cameras etc. get to the actual soldiers that need it, is to bring it directly to them.
How many Ukrainians have been convicted for corruption/theft/treason and sentenced to life or, preferably, death? How many commanders, who sent whistleblowers on suicide missions to shut them up, have been sentenced to death or at least to life in prison, by military courts?
Evidence please.
Evidence for what? Theft in the military? 30 second google search:
https://suspilne.media/dnipro/702858-zbitki-majze-400-tisac-griven-u-dnipri-za-vikradenna-vijskovogo-majna-suditimut-komandira/
https://suspilne.media/kropyvnytskiy/588161-dvoh-vijskovih-ta-civilnogo-z-kirovogradsini-pidozruut-u-rozkradanni-palnogo-z-vijskovoi-castini/
There is plenty from Ukrainian sources, not difficult to find, but you are not trying to be honest, are you? If you cannot find it yourself, then I am certainly not going to do it for you.
Deep State Map has mainly a Ukrainian reach, and all their jars are filled in a few days (and they collect money for troops quite often). But I agree that a lot of common people in the EU are donating regularly, and this is great and heart warming. Of course when you to deliver the help in person you are sure it goes where you wanted. The government is responsible with many things and has many priorities. But in the end it is a question of money, and the money are never enough in a war torned country :(
Oh really? How did you 'calculate' that '2nd place' ?? Tell us more.
Again: Ukrainian corruption is just the same as anywhere else or SMALLER than in 'civilised' countries. It's just better hidden simply because corrupt westerners are more professional and have long tail of experience. But it would soon surface in the wake of an ‘extreme' situation (like WAR, btw). Whereas, Ukrainian corruption is simply well 'advertised' by a huge, decades-long PR campaign.
About Ukraine - sorry, you are clueless and brainwashed (at least) and now arguing with someone who knows better what's going on in Ukraine.
"...happy to see their neighbour's son die in the trenches...", "...do not deserve to have a country...", "...there has never been a Ukrainian state..."
That's from putin & orban's template, word for word. Careful, troll.
I suspected you were a dishonest plonker, but didn't want to judge without evidence. Thank you for providing it.
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021
The ranking above from before the war presumably means nothing to you. If you had at least 2 working brain cells, you would at least try to argue that Ukraine are getting to the corruption level of Bosnia, Moldova or even Hungary. Instead, like a complete tool, you are comparing corruption in Ukraine, to Western Europe, the least corrupt region on Earth.
Westerners have a long history of fighting all sorts of wars and no, we have never degenerated to the level of Ukraine.
Also, careful or what? If you're Ukrainian, why aren't you fighting but instead sitting on your ass writing idiotic propaganda? Unless, that's what you are paid for. I thought Syrskyi had already moved your useless asses to the front.
An aged female can't fight, dear troll.
So you decided that outright lying and bullying critics, will be your contribution to the war effort?
Agree. The corruption emerges from bureaucrats who are in power, like in many democratic EU countries. Ukraine is not different in that regard, except it still has no so potent judiciary system to overcome it.
From someone from the West, it is very hard to understand. They don't have a reference for it. I am from Romania, and we have been through communism, and we have experienced high level corruption for decades. In communism at a certain point people from the party in power were behaving like everything is theirs, at all levels of power (from the countryside representative up to the government). But what is more intriguing to me is when I see people from Moldova. Moldova was a part of Romania before WW2, when it was taken by the USSR (and Putin wants it back). Most people from the West see Moldova like a former soviet republic, but it's more complicated than that. However, being that they are Romanians, I tend to compare Moldova with Romania. Yet, it is very different and very far behind (no offence) also in corruption but also in other habits. And then I cannot but conclude that in the former communist countries it was bad enough, but in the USSR it was far worst. This probably applies to Ukraine as well...
Dont over-estimate Western countries. We have plenty of corruptions here too. Although it can take more esoteric forms than the basic old school receiver tax or retro commission system.
Just so you know, a third of France state budget goes to fill the pocket of private sector business. Which is why we never had so many millionaires & billionaires. Who in return make it rain on politicians while the country is heading straight to bankruptcy.
Do you (or French people) have to bribe a policeman every time they stop you? Do you have to bribe a customs or border agent whenever you cross the border? Do you have to bribe a civil servant every time you need a permission for something? Do you need to bribe doctors to get better treatment? No, you really don't know what genuine corrupt rot is. Comparing corruption in France to Ukraine is like comparing the murder rate of Honduras to Japan.
1) Road police. That was the case like 20 years ago. They used to stop drivers, start searching for anything illegal or broken in the car, and that would continue for an hour unless the driver gives them some money. Nowadays they don't do that. However, one may usually redeem oneself with a bribe (which is lower than the official penalty) if found violating traffic rules.
2) Customs are interested in bribes when they see any expensive equipment or goods sent over the border. They don't stop ordinary citizens.
3) Civil servants may be given money (if you know the correct way to do that) to get you through without waiting in queues for days. Also, they say there are huge bribes around everything related to building construction.
4) Doctors live from bribes because their salaries are extremely low. However, those "bribes" are small - a bone surgery costs about $1000, a consultation with a specialist is below $40, and I had my neck muscles treated with electricity for below $10 per hour. I believe such bribes make the medicine in Ukraine much more accessible to 90% of the population than it is in the West.
Thus I have to say that you overestimate the extent of corruption in Ukraine in the daily life. Probably you have not been to the country for decades.
Mt former boss was Italian. He said the same. "There is corruption in Italy, too, but it is brought to a much higher level of sophistication" :)) Also the situation wirlth the state budget filling private business pockets is wide-spread, I guess. Private businesses always criticise the state, but are always happy to get the state money. The state is the best customer.
My sister in law got a two on some of her final exams because her mother didn't bribe the teacher. She is fluent in English and those that got As weren't able to speak the language. That is not happening in Europe.
As always a big thank you for the update, Tom. The situation for Ukraine is more grim each day, if it wasn’t for his troop resilience. Even the less know, no PRed units.
The actual political situation have echoes of Poland 1939, but the war per se reminds me more of the Fino-Soviet war: a small country stopping the onslaught of the (seemingly) gigantic ruZZian juggernaut. But now as then, the small “David” need our help to prevail on the invasive “Goliath”, and seems that our “Cosmopolitans” aren’t in a hurry.. except for lavishly supply the God Chosen ones to do the same that ruZZian orcs do best: bombing civilians.
Sigh!
"72nd Airborne" - Mech, not Airborne
Thanks, Tom. It’s not realistic to expect Ukraine to become self-sufficient in their arms supply. They need to concentrate on two-three things that West wouldn’t provide or not in sufficient quantities: long-range missiles , drones and something else where they have some edge
There's only one thing which is not realistic today for Ukraine and which West wouldn't provide: modern military aircraft. The rest - just need a bit more time.
I'm not celebrating, but it's sad fact, that West all together is so incompetent, that the situation went to the point when without this package the UA defense could easily collapse in some weeks/months.
What's more sad is, that with better support there could be 180° turned situation - Russians near collapse. It could be much cheaper than it's going to be (lives, money, time...)
Allow me to conclude with one quote: "You can always count on the help of the Americans, just after they have tried all other options," Sir Winston Churchill
....sometimes recalled as, 'You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else'....
Putin must be high as a kite then. There are only a small steps left to Putin The Great. When Ukraine falls then thats a done deal. Just a matter of reeducating those misguided little russians but overall empire is back and central asian republics will be a nice bonus (as no one will be protecting them from Russian SMO-s). That would seal him into Russian history as one of its greatest rulers.
Only that Ukrainian "virus" is standing in the way of glory
The war is not over and victory is far for both sides now. UA can loose some territory or also there can be another civil war in russia. Also with central asia it is not as easy. If Putin wins in UA he still will be very weak and China can easily stop RU attacking Kazachstan. China don't need strong RU. Azerbajdzan will be protected by Turkey .
There's no way for Russia to win this war (and Ukraine to 'fall'). Really: just no way.
I've said so in early March 2022, and this remains that until this day.
The question is only: what's going to be the price for complete liberation (and recovery) of Ukraine?
Yes, absolutely. This is the right conclusion and the right question.
I'm wondering if it wouldn't be helpful if someone or a group to put together a set of maps that overlay Ukraine cities and regions over Western countries so the electorate of Western "allies" (with friends like them, who needs enemies) can better relate to the sizes, distances and locations involved in the Ukraine conflict. If Sevastopol were labeled "New Miami", Melitopol - "New Orlando", Kharkiv - New Charlotte" , Kyiv - "New DC" ...etc then (for this case example) American's could better relate to the size and scope of the conflict and begin to conceptualize the communities that are being decimated in Ukrainian's struggle for survival. (Please forgive the fact that this strategy panders to American Imperialism, but you have to meet your market where it lies.) From this conceptual map, one can better appreciate that Ukraine is fighting along a front line roughly equivalent to the length of the US Eastern Seaboard (population ~120M) with a (starting) population less than 1/3 of that. That might adjust the cobwebs in enough minds to appreciate just how many resources are required for Ukraine to have a fighting chance at survival and thence offer more than token gestures of assistance.
Apparently GLSDB has proven to be a dud in Ukraine, with GPS jamming being a core reason, as it seemingly was for the nonutilization of JDAMs.
https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1783514363841630309
Not every weapon became effective. Some of them can be improved, maybe with ATACM UA will be able to destroy GPS jammers and so helps other weapons or in worst case they can be fired as decoys, because they are cheap
So, why cannot Ukrainians counter Russian KAB glide bombs, too? And why it does not affect HIMARs (so much)?
Most big weapons use multiple guidance systems, for redundancy and reliability.
GPS/GLONASS, inertial guidance, (in case of cruise missiles) terrain following/maps, etc.
Usually, the highest price systems are endowed with more guidance systems.
And there are laser designators for bombs like Paveway IV...
It's so sad to read your thoughts about corruption in Ukraine. But I confirm every word. Corruption is a norm, to steal something from state(budget) is a norm, to take other personal belongings left unattended is a norm. All reforms require immense pressure from EU/USA/IMF etc. We are changing but extremely slow. And I think one of the reasons of this war - is current underdevelopment of country in big part due to a corruption.
Tom, about the valuation of US material aid, it's all net book value, not replacement value, as Badhwar points out. But the issue, including with the latest Congressional package, is that not enough replacement funding is allocated relative to the PDA (drawdown) authority level, so Biden is left in a place where he has been/will be forced to choose between executing all his legal authorities and pleasing the generals who want every bullet backfilled ASAP for the sake of complete spreadsheets or whatnot.
But don't underrate Western aid overall in its contribution to Ukrainian survival, nevertheless. We're talking about something like 1000 tanks, 1000 IFVs, 1000 artillery guns, 4+ million large-caliber shells, many thousands of AFVs over two years. Without all this aid - limited as it is relative to the scale of the Russian military - the ZSU would be, at best, in the position of the Red Army in 1941.
Thank you, Tom. Especially for the critique.