Thanks Tom! About the Air war, the PSU have received at least 20 MIG-29 from Poland and the Czech. Where are them? VKS is still using the MIG-31/SU-35 paired with R-37 to deny fligths over the frontline? What about the Tu-22M bomber runs?
Think about the ZSU launching a succesful assault, ir they can't breach the VKS interceptor and bring an air umbrella, it's going to be very difficult.
IMHO; without Russians launching cruise missiles and Iranian-made UCAVs/LPGMs, Ukrainian MiG-29s haven't got that much to do. Exception are the 2-3 modified to fire AGM-88s, of course.
btw, according the former Ukrainian officer, there are rumors most of fresh supplied Mig-29 are in bad condition and can be used only as source of spare parts.
This also went through Slovak media: problems with MiG-29, especially with those components that were maintained by Russian mechanics (what a surprise)
After all the dogfighting in training of the last 30 years, they're not only badly worn out, but literally 'bent', too - just like the mass of older F-16s in world-wide service.
Thanks Tom. Apart from the “smoking” accident in Luhansk, ZSU has managed to hit targets in Mariupol and Crimea which lie somewhat further than the range of HIMARS since the start of the year. I’m sure that you are aware of Stefan Korshak’s reporting about them. Do you think that ZSU has developed some long(er) range missiles? Yes I know that it had such a program before the war so it certainly maybe has some prototypes. So, do you think that under current conditions (with the Russians able to strike inside the country, and ruined major chemicals and steel production facilities) Ukraine can actually mass produce missiles (or drones)?
I do hope they did. Lately, there was a lots of talk about their Hrim-2 tactical ballistic missiles.
And yes, I think Ukraine has no other options but to launch production of such weaponry at home. Remaining dependent on the West (and especially the USA).... well, we've seen the US 'expertise' in 'fighting long wars' - in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Me thinks, the US should keep that expertise for itself, and let Ukrainians do what they are capable of doing, on their own.
AFAIK the Hrim/Grom system is not new tech, but a development of the Tochka-U, and the handful that Ukraine has deployed in combat so far were mostly intercepted.
Interesting. I wonder if western multi role jets such as F16s with drag chutes operating from field runways would make it easier to fend off the Russian airforce. Ukrainian airforce has been adamant on getting those F16s. Not saying they are the most important thing such as ground artillery but seems the better radars, sensors missiles and information systems on western jets could help push back the Russian airforce which is now playing a larger role than before. I wonder also if some of the Polish supplied MiG-29s had been upgraded with western radars and interfaces for using western pods and missiles. This would be very helpful in fending off the Russian airforce. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the two Patriot systems are just one of several that will be sent eventually over the course of the year. We have over 60 Patriot batteries here in the US. Surely we can spare 5 or 10 for Ukraine and make orders for replacements. I like the MEADS system alot. Cheaper and better than the Patriot in alot of ways. I think the time is now to put in orders. Seems the Biden admin hasn't yet planned on long term production of military equipment. Otherwise very interested to hear your solutions for how the ZSU can fight off the VKS?
It's not about drag chutes, but about 'FOD'. Stands for 'foreign object damage'. That big underfuselage intake on the F-16s loves sucking in all sorts of dirt, rocks etc. That's ruining engines. And Ukraine does not have 'nice, big air bases, outside the range of enemy', nor 'an air force supported by a big fleet of tanker aircraft'.
Re. Slovak and Polish MiG-29s: no radars. Only comms and IFF are of Western origin.
Re. Patriots: PSU would need at least a dozen to properly cover all the major urban and economic centres. Plus another 4-5 closer to the frontline. Tha's going to take 'years'.
Me thinks: in regards of air defences, there's no way around Ukraine re-launching production of missiles for its Buks.
I have heard about the FOD issues. F16s engineers had placed the nose wheel behind the engine inlet but seems as you suggest from empirical evidence its still a major issue. Tyler Rogoway from thedrive.com had a recent article about some 48 F/A-18s in excellent condition in Australia that are up for grabs. I hope theres a movement to provide those to Ukraine. I see about the Slovak Polish MiGs had hoped for something better. Very unfortunate circumstances Ukrainian air force finds itself in. Hopefully they're producing Buk and S-300 missiles in Poland. Seems the adaptation of RIM-7s onto BUKS isnt working out. Thanks for the clarifications
Hello. Let's say an offensive would cost 100 tanks etc. but if it meant cutting the land link with Crimea wouldn't it be worth it? Finally, together with the destruction of the railway bridge in the strait.
Aren't munitions de facto donated by Korea (a gift from the US) on the way? 500 thousand pcs.
Nope. Because that would also mean 'mauling what little there is of Ukrainian offensive capability'. One can't liberate a country without offensive capability.
Re. artillery ammo: whatever it is, it's not in Ukraine, thus nowhere near the frontlines and in use. Thus, pointless to discuss.
Yes, ZSU cannot make any large action across Dnipro river, but seems like VSRF "power" has shrunk and is not able to hold the whole front line. Yes, it does not help ZSU much if they keep their weak points behind Dnipro. Just the trend is obvious ...
But I agree, ZSU needs much better support. Attrition war costs so many innocent lives.
The VSRF is finished as a 'serious military force with offensive capability'.
However, it is still having a significant defensive capability. Enough of it to spoil any kind of Ukrainian counteroffensive.
....and Ukraine is never going to get enough arms and ammo from the West. At least not at once, as necessary.
Remaining dependent on mercy of Western idiots excelling in sports and cooking for liberation (and deterrent of future Russian aggressions), is no good idea. It's making Ukraine dependent, instead of making it independent and sovereign. That's simply a matter of fact.
No artillery superiority (parity, at least) and no air support, no enemy's immediate reserves being engaged, let alone the operational ones. In these conditions, no offensive can succeed.
Well Ukraine has to at some point. Every day I encounter more and more Ukrainian refuges. Many of these people are never going back. The longer this war goes on, the worse it is for Ukraine's future.
It is not good for Russia either, but it has a much better position and the constant inflow of $$/Yuan/whatever. They can sit back, ramp up their military production, work on deficiencies and keep wearing Ukraine down.
So an offensive will have to be attempted. They will be semi -trained and equipped for it, but the ever present Russian potential for monumental f*ck up, gives them hope for success.
I have a feeling, at some point, they will try it, no matter what. Why do I say this ? Because these affairs are not always dictated by military matters alone. Politics play a very important role also. And everything touched by politicians, goes to shit.
They withdrew from Kherson because they had no troops left to defend Luhansk. So, they 'exchanged' Kherson for Luhansk. From their POV, a lesser of two evils.
The longer range GLSDBs for the HIMARS were promised for around now.
They should be very helpful for keeping the Russians on their toes in the rear areas although I doubt, sadly, there will be enough GLSDBs supplied to make a difference.
But what if the Ukrainians plan to carry out before their counteroffensive, to make a large-scale attack with drones in order to disable the aviation of the Russian Federation, in order to at least temporarily minimize the threats emanating from it. such an operation is more likely to be cheaper than supplying even more anti-aircraft missile systems, which are not a cheap pleasure
Russian airports may have strong air defense, but if a large number of drones attack these objects, then most likely there is a big chance that part of the UAV will reach its target and cause significant harm to Russian aviation
On April 25, a source with knowledge of the matter told Sputnik News that some T-14 Armata main battle tanks have been deployed in Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine.
I hope they have not sent both of the ones that still work.
Presumably a heavy handed Russian attempt at humour.
There is little reason to believe Ukraine would ever be able to rebuild enough indigenous arms industry to pose a credible threat to Russia independent of NATO.
All of the Ukraine-operated factories producing (small) batches of Soviet-caliber ammo (120/122/125/152mm) are located in Poland AFAIK and were established with foreign assistance.
You're forgetting that Ukraine has been producing a lot of Soviet military equipment and some of the most high-tech: Kharkiv Tank Factory, Yuzhmash rocket factory (producer of Soviet ICBMs such as Topol-M), KrAZ military trucks, Luch MLRS + Skif ATGM + Hrim
Other than the Skif, it's almost all either past-tense (that is, as of decades ago) or in the same kind of quantity Russia produces their experimental equipment in.
In terms of this (long) war, Ukraine might be able to scale up production in other countries to some extent, or if they're smart in workshops across their own, for items such as their many trialled indigenous drones. I see no evidence that Ukraine can suddenly reestablish 1980s-scale war industry this decade (which it sounds like is what is implied), let alone on their own soil while under threat of strategic bombardment.
Skif/Stugna at least, they'd be foolish not to already be sustaining production somehow, as a feasible priority; it's an excellent system in general.
We are really looking forward to the end of the war and the victory of Russia.
Thanks Tom! About the Air war, the PSU have received at least 20 MIG-29 from Poland and the Czech. Where are them? VKS is still using the MIG-31/SU-35 paired with R-37 to deny fligths over the frontline? What about the Tu-22M bomber runs?
Think about the ZSU launching a succesful assault, ir they can't breach the VKS interceptor and bring an air umbrella, it's going to be very difficult.
Nowhere to be seen - yet.
IMHO; without Russians launching cruise missiles and Iranian-made UCAVs/LPGMs, Ukrainian MiG-29s haven't got that much to do. Exception are the 2-3 modified to fire AGM-88s, of course.
btw, according the former Ukrainian officer, there are rumors most of fresh supplied Mig-29 are in bad condition and can be used only as source of spare parts.
This also went through Slovak media: problems with MiG-29, especially with those components that were maintained by Russian mechanics (what a surprise)
....and were maintained by a Russian company for almost a decade.
No surprise, actually.
Still might be in a better condition that the Mig-29s of Romanian Airforce in Storage.
After all the dogfighting in training of the last 30 years, they're not only badly worn out, but literally 'bent', too - just like the mass of older F-16s in world-wide service.
Not Czech MIG-29s, but Slovak and Polish MIG-29s.
Nice summary
Thanks Tom. Apart from the “smoking” accident in Luhansk, ZSU has managed to hit targets in Mariupol and Crimea which lie somewhat further than the range of HIMARS since the start of the year. I’m sure that you are aware of Stefan Korshak’s reporting about them. Do you think that ZSU has developed some long(er) range missiles? Yes I know that it had such a program before the war so it certainly maybe has some prototypes. So, do you think that under current conditions (with the Russians able to strike inside the country, and ruined major chemicals and steel production facilities) Ukraine can actually mass produce missiles (or drones)?
I do hope they did. Lately, there was a lots of talk about their Hrim-2 tactical ballistic missiles.
And yes, I think Ukraine has no other options but to launch production of such weaponry at home. Remaining dependent on the West (and especially the USA).... well, we've seen the US 'expertise' in 'fighting long wars' - in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Me thinks, the US should keep that expertise for itself, and let Ukrainians do what they are capable of doing, on their own.
AFAIK the Hrim/Grom system is not new tech, but a development of the Tochka-U, and the handful that Ukraine has deployed in combat so far were mostly intercepted.
That's about what I've heard too.
Guess, for effective deployment, they might need 'a few hundred'.
Or, maybe Vilkha-M ? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-is-using-guided-rockets-with-more-range-than-himars-launched-ones
Thanks for heads-up on this one: certainly 'a step in the right direction'.
Interesting. I wonder if western multi role jets such as F16s with drag chutes operating from field runways would make it easier to fend off the Russian airforce. Ukrainian airforce has been adamant on getting those F16s. Not saying they are the most important thing such as ground artillery but seems the better radars, sensors missiles and information systems on western jets could help push back the Russian airforce which is now playing a larger role than before. I wonder also if some of the Polish supplied MiG-29s had been upgraded with western radars and interfaces for using western pods and missiles. This would be very helpful in fending off the Russian airforce. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the two Patriot systems are just one of several that will be sent eventually over the course of the year. We have over 60 Patriot batteries here in the US. Surely we can spare 5 or 10 for Ukraine and make orders for replacements. I like the MEADS system alot. Cheaper and better than the Patriot in alot of ways. I think the time is now to put in orders. Seems the Biden admin hasn't yet planned on long term production of military equipment. Otherwise very interested to hear your solutions for how the ZSU can fight off the VKS?
It's not about drag chutes, but about 'FOD'. Stands for 'foreign object damage'. That big underfuselage intake on the F-16s loves sucking in all sorts of dirt, rocks etc. That's ruining engines. And Ukraine does not have 'nice, big air bases, outside the range of enemy', nor 'an air force supported by a big fleet of tanker aircraft'.
Re. Slovak and Polish MiG-29s: no radars. Only comms and IFF are of Western origin.
Re. Patriots: PSU would need at least a dozen to properly cover all the major urban and economic centres. Plus another 4-5 closer to the frontline. Tha's going to take 'years'.
Me thinks: in regards of air defences, there's no way around Ukraine re-launching production of missiles for its Buks.
I have heard about the FOD issues. F16s engineers had placed the nose wheel behind the engine inlet but seems as you suggest from empirical evidence its still a major issue. Tyler Rogoway from thedrive.com had a recent article about some 48 F/A-18s in excellent condition in Australia that are up for grabs. I hope theres a movement to provide those to Ukraine. I see about the Slovak Polish MiGs had hoped for something better. Very unfortunate circumstances Ukrainian air force finds itself in. Hopefully they're producing Buk and S-300 missiles in Poland. Seems the adaptation of RIM-7s onto BUKS isnt working out. Thanks for the clarifications
Thanks Tom, Re the Ukrainian offensive. It brings to mind the famous saying. "Amateurs talk tactics professionals talk logistics".
Thanks
Hello. Let's say an offensive would cost 100 tanks etc. but if it meant cutting the land link with Crimea wouldn't it be worth it? Finally, together with the destruction of the railway bridge in the strait.
Aren't munitions de facto donated by Korea (a gift from the US) on the way? 500 thousand pcs.
Nope. Because that would also mean 'mauling what little there is of Ukrainian offensive capability'. One can't liberate a country without offensive capability.
Re. artillery ammo: whatever it is, it's not in Ukraine, thus nowhere near the frontlines and in use. Thus, pointless to discuss.
Yes, ZSU cannot make any large action across Dnipro river, but seems like VSRF "power" has shrunk and is not able to hold the whole front line. Yes, it does not help ZSU much if they keep their weak points behind Dnipro. Just the trend is obvious ...
But I agree, ZSU needs much better support. Attrition war costs so many innocent lives.
The VSRF is finished as a 'serious military force with offensive capability'.
However, it is still having a significant defensive capability. Enough of it to spoil any kind of Ukrainian counteroffensive.
....and Ukraine is never going to get enough arms and ammo from the West. At least not at once, as necessary.
Remaining dependent on mercy of Western idiots excelling in sports and cooking for liberation (and deterrent of future Russian aggressions), is no good idea. It's making Ukraine dependent, instead of making it independent and sovereign. That's simply a matter of fact.
No artillery superiority (parity, at least) and no air support, no enemy's immediate reserves being engaged, let alone the operational ones. In these conditions, no offensive can succeed.
and yet Ruskies withdrew from Kherson while having all sorts of superiorities
Well, what can I say, if you think this is the case, push on, go for it, see what happens.
Well Ukraine has to at some point. Every day I encounter more and more Ukrainian refuges. Many of these people are never going back. The longer this war goes on, the worse it is for Ukraine's future.
It is not good for Russia either, but it has a much better position and the constant inflow of $$/Yuan/whatever. They can sit back, ramp up their military production, work on deficiencies and keep wearing Ukraine down.
So an offensive will have to be attempted. They will be semi -trained and equipped for it, but the ever present Russian potential for monumental f*ck up, gives them hope for success.
I have a feeling, at some point, they will try it, no matter what. Why do I say this ? Because these affairs are not always dictated by military matters alone. Politics play a very important role also. And everything touched by politicians, goes to shit.
They withdrew from Kherson because they had no troops left to defend Luhansk. So, they 'exchanged' Kherson for Luhansk. From their POV, a lesser of two evils.
Could they have held it even if they tried, though ?
With the bridges disabled and their "ferries" under regular fire.
That's a lot of troops to keep supplied.
The well known "Arty Green" claims the VSU was inflicting substantial casualties upon the Russians, both in equipment and manpower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB6O-e99OKA
It’s alive! It’s alive again!! Great job, Tom!
The longer range GLSDBs for the HIMARS were promised for around now.
They should be very helpful for keeping the Russians on their toes in the rear areas although I doubt, sadly, there will be enough GLSDBs supplied to make a difference.
But what if the Ukrainians plan to carry out before their counteroffensive, to make a large-scale attack with drones in order to disable the aviation of the Russian Federation, in order to at least temporarily minimize the threats emanating from it. such an operation is more likely to be cheaper than supplying even more anti-aircraft missile systems, which are not a cheap pleasure
Russian airports may have strong air defense, but if a large number of drones attack these objects, then most likely there is a big chance that part of the UAV will reach its target and cause significant harm to Russian aviation
On April 25, a source with knowledge of the matter told Sputnik News that some T-14 Armata main battle tanks have been deployed in Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine.
I hope they have not sent both of the ones that still work.
Presumably a heavy handed Russian attempt at humour.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230425/what-is-the-t-14-armata-russias-newest-main-battle-tank-1109825728.html
There is little reason to believe Ukraine would ever be able to rebuild enough indigenous arms industry to pose a credible threat to Russia independent of NATO.
All of the Ukraine-operated factories producing (small) batches of Soviet-caliber ammo (120/122/125/152mm) are located in Poland AFAIK and were established with foreign assistance.
You're forgetting that Ukraine has been producing a lot of Soviet military equipment and some of the most high-tech: Kharkiv Tank Factory, Yuzhmash rocket factory (producer of Soviet ICBMs such as Topol-M), KrAZ military trucks, Luch MLRS + Skif ATGM + Hrim
Other than the Skif, it's almost all either past-tense (that is, as of decades ago) or in the same kind of quantity Russia produces their experimental equipment in.
Companies like Artyom were manufacting guided missiles for the Russian armed forces until 2014. There's no reason to think they can't do so now.
In terms of this (long) war, Ukraine might be able to scale up production in other countries to some extent, or if they're smart in workshops across their own, for items such as their many trialled indigenous drones. I see no evidence that Ukraine can suddenly reestablish 1980s-scale war industry this decade (which it sounds like is what is implied), let alone on their own soil while under threat of strategic bombardment.
Skif/Stugna at least, they'd be foolish not to already be sustaining production somehow, as a feasible priority; it's an excellent system in general.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/23/those-leopard-1-tanks-ukraine-is-getting-won-a-lopsided-victory-in-bosnia-in-1994-but-the-battle-easily-couldve-gone-the-other-way/?ss=aerospace-defense&sh=306712beab43 This article shows the only battle record of Leopard 1 vs Russian tanks