Hello everybody! It’s often hard to make sense of all the possible reports coming from Ukraine the last few days. Usually, this is an indication of things not always developing in the desired fashion. Precisely this was the reason for repeated delays with my next update: wanted to make sure ‘fog of war’ is ‘up’ before drawing any kind of conclusions.
Thanks Tom! About the Air war, the PSU have received at least 20 MIG-29 from Poland and the Czech. Where are them? VKS is still using the MIG-31/SU-35 paired with R-37 to deny fligths over the frontline? What about the Tu-22M bomber runs?
Think about the ZSU launching a succesful assault, ir they can't breach the VKS interceptor and bring an air umbrella, it's going to be very difficult.
Thanks Tom. Apart from the “smoking” accident in Luhansk, ZSU has managed to hit targets in Mariupol and Crimea which lie somewhat further than the range of HIMARS since the start of the year. I’m sure that you are aware of Stefan Korshak’s reporting about them. Do you think that ZSU has developed some long(er) range missiles? Yes I know that it had such a program before the war so it certainly maybe has some prototypes. So, do you think that under current conditions (with the Russians able to strike inside the country, and ruined major chemicals and steel production facilities) Ukraine can actually mass produce missiles (or drones)?
Interesting. I wonder if western multi role jets such as F16s with drag chutes operating from field runways would make it easier to fend off the Russian airforce. Ukrainian airforce has been adamant on getting those F16s. Not saying they are the most important thing such as ground artillery but seems the better radars, sensors missiles and information systems on western jets could help push back the Russian airforce which is now playing a larger role than before. I wonder also if some of the Polish supplied MiG-29s had been upgraded with western radars and interfaces for using western pods and missiles. This would be very helpful in fending off the Russian airforce. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the two Patriot systems are just one of several that will be sent eventually over the course of the year. We have over 60 Patriot batteries here in the US. Surely we can spare 5 or 10 for Ukraine and make orders for replacements. I like the MEADS system alot. Cheaper and better than the Patriot in alot of ways. I think the time is now to put in orders. Seems the Biden admin hasn't yet planned on long term production of military equipment. Otherwise very interested to hear your solutions for how the ZSU can fight off the VKS?
Hello. Let's say an offensive would cost 100 tanks etc. but if it meant cutting the land link with Crimea wouldn't it be worth it? Finally, together with the destruction of the railway bridge in the strait.
Aren't munitions de facto donated by Korea (a gift from the US) on the way? 500 thousand pcs.
Yes, ZSU cannot make any large action across Dnipro river, but seems like VSRF "power" has shrunk and is not able to hold the whole front line. Yes, it does not help ZSU much if they keep their weak points behind Dnipro. Just the trend is obvious ...
But I agree, ZSU needs much better support. Attrition war costs so many innocent lives.
No artillery superiority (parity, at least) and no air support, no enemy's immediate reserves being engaged, let alone the operational ones. In these conditions, no offensive can succeed.
The longer range GLSDBs for the HIMARS were promised for around now.
They should be very helpful for keeping the Russians on their toes in the rear areas although I doubt, sadly, there will be enough GLSDBs supplied to make a difference.
But what if the Ukrainians plan to carry out before their counteroffensive, to make a large-scale attack with drones in order to disable the aviation of the Russian Federation, in order to at least temporarily minimize the threats emanating from it. such an operation is more likely to be cheaper than supplying even more anti-aircraft missile systems, which are not a cheap pleasure
On April 25, a source with knowledge of the matter told Sputnik News that some T-14 Armata main battle tanks have been deployed in Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine.
I hope they have not sent both of the ones that still work.
Presumably a heavy handed Russian attempt at humour.
There is little reason to believe Ukraine would ever be able to rebuild enough indigenous arms industry to pose a credible threat to Russia independent of NATO.
All of the Ukraine-operated factories producing (small) batches of Soviet-caliber ammo (120/122/125/152mm) are located in Poland AFAIK and were established with foreign assistance.
Thanks Tom! About the Air war, the PSU have received at least 20 MIG-29 from Poland and the Czech. Where are them? VKS is still using the MIG-31/SU-35 paired with R-37 to deny fligths over the frontline? What about the Tu-22M bomber runs?
Think about the ZSU launching a succesful assault, ir they can't breach the VKS interceptor and bring an air umbrella, it's going to be very difficult.
Nice summary
Thanks Tom. Apart from the “smoking” accident in Luhansk, ZSU has managed to hit targets in Mariupol and Crimea which lie somewhat further than the range of HIMARS since the start of the year. I’m sure that you are aware of Stefan Korshak’s reporting about them. Do you think that ZSU has developed some long(er) range missiles? Yes I know that it had such a program before the war so it certainly maybe has some prototypes. So, do you think that under current conditions (with the Russians able to strike inside the country, and ruined major chemicals and steel production facilities) Ukraine can actually mass produce missiles (or drones)?
Interesting. I wonder if western multi role jets such as F16s with drag chutes operating from field runways would make it easier to fend off the Russian airforce. Ukrainian airforce has been adamant on getting those F16s. Not saying they are the most important thing such as ground artillery but seems the better radars, sensors missiles and information systems on western jets could help push back the Russian airforce which is now playing a larger role than before. I wonder also if some of the Polish supplied MiG-29s had been upgraded with western radars and interfaces for using western pods and missiles. This would be very helpful in fending off the Russian airforce. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the two Patriot systems are just one of several that will be sent eventually over the course of the year. We have over 60 Patriot batteries here in the US. Surely we can spare 5 or 10 for Ukraine and make orders for replacements. I like the MEADS system alot. Cheaper and better than the Patriot in alot of ways. I think the time is now to put in orders. Seems the Biden admin hasn't yet planned on long term production of military equipment. Otherwise very interested to hear your solutions for how the ZSU can fight off the VKS?
Thanks Tom, Re the Ukrainian offensive. It brings to mind the famous saying. "Amateurs talk tactics professionals talk logistics".
Thanks
Hello. Let's say an offensive would cost 100 tanks etc. but if it meant cutting the land link with Crimea wouldn't it be worth it? Finally, together with the destruction of the railway bridge in the strait.
Aren't munitions de facto donated by Korea (a gift from the US) on the way? 500 thousand pcs.
Yes, ZSU cannot make any large action across Dnipro river, but seems like VSRF "power" has shrunk and is not able to hold the whole front line. Yes, it does not help ZSU much if they keep their weak points behind Dnipro. Just the trend is obvious ...
But I agree, ZSU needs much better support. Attrition war costs so many innocent lives.
No artillery superiority (parity, at least) and no air support, no enemy's immediate reserves being engaged, let alone the operational ones. In these conditions, no offensive can succeed.
It’s alive! It’s alive again!! Great job, Tom!
The longer range GLSDBs for the HIMARS were promised for around now.
They should be very helpful for keeping the Russians on their toes in the rear areas although I doubt, sadly, there will be enough GLSDBs supplied to make a difference.
But what if the Ukrainians plan to carry out before their counteroffensive, to make a large-scale attack with drones in order to disable the aviation of the Russian Federation, in order to at least temporarily minimize the threats emanating from it. such an operation is more likely to be cheaper than supplying even more anti-aircraft missile systems, which are not a cheap pleasure
On April 25, a source with knowledge of the matter told Sputnik News that some T-14 Armata main battle tanks have been deployed in Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine.
I hope they have not sent both of the ones that still work.
Presumably a heavy handed Russian attempt at humour.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230425/what-is-the-t-14-armata-russias-newest-main-battle-tank-1109825728.html
There is little reason to believe Ukraine would ever be able to rebuild enough indigenous arms industry to pose a credible threat to Russia independent of NATO.
All of the Ukraine-operated factories producing (small) batches of Soviet-caliber ammo (120/122/125/152mm) are located in Poland AFAIK and were established with foreign assistance.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/23/those-leopard-1-tanks-ukraine-is-getting-won-a-lopsided-victory-in-bosnia-in-1994-but-the-battle-easily-couldve-gone-the-other-way/?ss=aerospace-defense&sh=306712beab43 This article shows the only battle record of Leopard 1 vs Russian tanks