Ukraine War, 25 April 2023

Hello everybody!

It’s often hard to make sense of all the possible reports coming from Ukraine the last few days. Usually, this is an indication of things not always developing in the desired fashion. Precisely this was the reason for repeated delays with my next update: wanted to make sure ‘fog of war’ is ‘up’ before drawing any kind of conclusions.

AIR WAR

The last week or so, the VKS was largely focusing on supporting ground troops in the Bakhmut area. Regular air strikes were reported from the centre of the ruins of that town: mostly the usual ‘spray and pray’ with unguided rockets, but also by S-25 guided version of the S-24 unguided rocket calibre 240mm, as visible on the photos released by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, attached below. Repeated use of the UMPK glide bombs was reported by Ukrainians, too.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk-Svatove area… Over the last week, the Russians seem to have ‘straightened’ the frontline south of the Ploshchanka village. Was a ‘positional battle’, with the VSRF advancing down four hedgerows from eastern in western direction, until running into the ZSU defence line along the local farm lane. That’s as far as was possible: too much mud all over this area.

Kremina area… north-west of the town, the ZSU is still grinding through the Russian positions west of Chervonopopivka, while the Russians are grinding through the Ukrainian positions in that huge forest south of the town.

In the rear, something blew up a POL-depot near Luhansk, yesterday (POL stands for ‘petrol, oil, lubricants’). AFAIK, that’s about 130km away from the nearest point on the frontline. Not sure it was a GMLRS, for example, or just another of Russian smoking accidents…

Siversk…another positional battle, in which the Russians are back to pressing on Bilohorivka (the one on the Siversky Donets), this time from the southern side. Might have advanced for about 200m, to the south-eastern edge of the Terykony Kreydovoho Karyeru site. On the contrary, the ZSU managed to expand the perimeter of its defences in the Spirne area.

Bakhmut… 260^th – 267^th day of the battle – and what should I say any more that wasn’t already said? Ah yes, the soil just began drying out, but rain is announced for the next few days…

Bakhmut…northern side of the town…on 18 April, the Russians attacked from the Old Hospital area over the Krainia Street towards the Garage area in the Oborny Street, and the Olympic School, held by the 3^rd Assault and the 241^st TD Brigades. As of yesterday, they have captured the compound between Peremogi and Oborny Streets, but failed to enter the Garages.  

Bakhmut….central….amid complaints about the lack of ammunition and heavy infantry weapons (I know, I’m repeating myself without an end), the 93^rd Mech and the 123^rd TD withdrew west of the railway line in direction of the Pushkin Street. Since 23 April, the Russians have crossed the railway line and are pushing very hard in direction of the Bakhmut Medical College.

Bakhmut….west… on 17 April, the VDV launched a massive attack on the row of Ukrainian trenches in hedgerows north-west of ‘that bend’ on the Road 0506 near Hromove. This are was defended by a battalion of the 92^nd Mech, but the Russians still managed to capture their objective, getting as close as 50m to the crucial road (even if never managing to physically cut it, as widely reported and mapped in the social media). As far as I can assess, this was the most dangerous Russian attack in Bakhmut since several weeks, and it was stopped short of becoming particularly successful. Purpose of this attack was obvious: the ZSU began using the Road 0506, and thus the Russians had to stop them.

In southern Bakhmut, the Russians remained unable to reach the Road 0506 and the Chaykovskoga Street. The situation is much better south of Bakhmut. Since 18 April, Ukrainians have managed to push the VDV away from Stupochky in the old quarry area, and all the way back to the eastern side of the canal west of Klishchivka.

Avdiivka…more positional battles. Ukrainians have pushed the Russians away form the railway line north of the town, which is why the Russians are heavily shelling that line for days already. West of Avdiivka, the Russians claimed to have attacked via Siverne to Lastochkyne, but that’s within realms of science fiction. Actually, they might have advanced ‘one hedgerow’ in direction of southern Siverne. Ukrainains promptly counterattacked into their eastern flank, stopping even that.

Dnipro… Kherson area… since around 22 April, there are lots of rumours about a large-scale Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro River, and that on multiple points in the area of the Kherson (city). As far as I can assess by now, the ZSU has crossed the river, but merely secured the northern side of the Dachi Island – which was a no-man’s land for months already. At least I’ve found no confirmation for any kind of advance on (or even into) Oleshky. Claims the latter town has been abandoned by the VSRF…sorry, but this is getting lame.

Something like ‘bottom line’: yes, the ZSU has established about 20 new brigades, the last three months, nine of these entirely trained and equipped ‘by NATO’ - as proudly boasted by the US Secretary of Defence, few days ago.

However, the combination of weather, insufficient amount of artillery ammo, and the Russian aerial supremacy is preventing any kind of serious mobile operations. Think, that’s going to remain that way for a while longer.

…even once the weather dries out. If for no other reason then because – even after the delivery of the first two PAC-3 SAM-systems from the USA and NATO - the ZSU and the PSU simply do not have the means necessary to durably block the Russian air power from striking selected targets along the frontline, nor enough artillery ammunition to block the Russian artillery. Moreover, despite its general degeneration, the VSRF has managed to scratch together few significant concentrations of reserves behind the frontline. Without ability to strike these (which in turn would necessitate much more artillery ammo than the ZSU is going to get in the next 2-4 months), any breakthrough of the first Russian line of defence is only certain to confront powerful counterattacks, supported by – still superior – artillery and air power. That’s no recipe for a successful offensive, but for a disaster – even more so considering the following calculation: lets say the ZSU launches an offensive and makes an advance of, say, 20-50km, perhaps even 100km in one or another area. Under current circumstances, that’s likely to ‘cost’ another 100 or so tanks (destroyed, damaged and in need of repairs etc). And NATO simply has no 100 ‘additional’ Leopards 2 or other tanks to replace such a loss; or if it might ever find them, it’s going to take another year or two to deliver…

If I’m to ask, eventually, ZSU and PSU need to find a number of indigenous solutions – and then solutions likely to characterise ‘everything’ Ukraine really needs in this war: a solution to win this war despite, not ‘thanks’ to the US/NATO help. With help of its own defence sector. Express gratitude to the West for financing such an effort, and leave it at that. Because, waiting for the ‘West’ to help is not only reminiscent of Becket’s Waiting for Godot, but only causing yet additional casualties and damage to Ukraine, and unnecessarily extending this war.