According to Norwegian news sources Peskov used the Word « War » to describe the situation in Ukraine. A war with the west. The analysis given for the reason of this language shift was (surprise surprise) as a preparation for a general mobilization. Now you write « while I’m joining the army of those wondering if this is another of FSB’s false flag operations: a ‘terrorist attack in Moscow’ would ‘automatically authorise’ Pudding to do whatever he wants to do… (including mobilising youngsters Muscovites). ». Damn « lucky » with that attack Putin? I don’t know whether he simply allowed it to happen or orchestrated it. But the attack suited him well, and he will use it.
you can count on Putin and the Russian regime to exploit this attack, even if it wasn't orchestrated by them - the 87% of votes recorded for Putin gives them lots of leeway to label every dissenter as 'traitor' and 'enemy of mother Russia' etc.
Regarding your analysis the crux of it seems to be that Russian attacks are slowly and expensively creeping forward. Their airforce is not stopped in its attacks and the ground troops are dying but grinding on. One can of course hope that this type of attacks becomes so expensive that the troops break, but I don’t really believe so. Breaking will first happen when they stop advancing. And while this hurts Russia in decades to come that doesn’t stop Putin. So something has to be done to stop Russian progress. Probably means some change in tactics.
Тебе заняться нечем? Зашёл в блог к Тому и придрался к комментарию на русском языке. Я не тебе писала. Якщо я пишу російською мовою, а ти українською, то це не означає, що ти більшій патріот ніж я.
40% of refining capacity is probably a wild exaggeration, but somewhere between 10 and 15% seems realistic, and I think this is already beyond the spare capacity Russia had, and cutting into exports. A few more good strikes, and there might be domestic deficit, which would be difficult to alleviate, because Russian petroleum infrastructure is not meant for imports. This game might - just might - pay off for Ukraine.
Well, according to news in Kyiv Biden told them to stop that as increasing oil prices are bad for his reelection. I hope that is wrong or that Budanov just gives a shit.
The article was written by guy who searched nazists in Ukraine few years ago. And moreover, no one knows is it position of White house or some burocrat from election office. Anyway, refiniers continue to burn
Much reporting out of the US is simply made up, vaguely cobbled together out of past articles, presumed and slanted. There's not a chance that Biden or Blinken have proclaimed 'Please stop blowing up oil infrastructure' nor mentioned election.
No matter if true or not, and no matter if Ukrainian strikes continue to succeed or not, I would expect an oil price hike closer to the US elections, as both Putin and MBS much prefer to see Trump in the WH. If I were Biden, I'd be speaking about this now, publicly and loudly. And I would also try to defy the powerful green lobby and give incentives to US producers to increase production, which is technically quite feasible.
Refineries produce petrol from oil. So these attacks can possibly affect petrol/diesel price, but not crude oil price. One can even speculate, that the less crude oil is transformed into petrol, the more crude oil is available for export, so that could actually decrease oil prices.
If so, that would be just a local pipeline branch connected to the refinery, not the mainline. And so far, UAVs mostly targeted refinery towers (I don't remember any reports about pipelines being hit, except one in Feodosiya).
Ok, then the detailed answer. A pipelines capacity is determined by its diameter. They are normally built close to expected throughput. You can't get more through as the pipe would burst due to pressure.
As you mentioned refineries are an end node of such pipelines. Hence, they oil is expected to be processed there and then shipped of to the consumer in form of fuel, chemical intermediaries or even tar for road construction. As you can't store the oil at the refinery that is coming through the pipeline (no, those huge thanks standing around at refineries won't help for long), you have to shut the oilwell down if it exceeds alternative pipeline capacity. So that oil is falling out of the market and the consumers of those refinery need to get their oil products from somewhere else.
Due to the fact that oil products are pricewise highly inelastic (remember the negative oil prices during covid?), that has a direct influence on the oil price as that oil destined for that refinery is off the market but the consumption demand for those oil products is still there.
There are oil wells which produce crude oil, transported through pipelines to refineries, oil depots or transport terminals. Oil from terminals is transported somewhere, usually sold abroad. Same goes for cross-border international pipelines.
Now lets assume that oil wells produce 100 barrels of crude oil, of which 50 barrels are sent to refineries to make fuels and 50 are sold abroad as crude oil. After decreasing refineries capacity, let's say, only 25 barrels can be processed. So there are +25 crude oil barrels, which can be either sold abroad or stored in depots. If they are sold, crude oil price goes down (same demand, higher proposal, lower price). If they are stored - price doesn't change.
Now, if some oil well are shut down to avoid excess oil - oil output drops to 75 barrels: 25 processed, 50 sold. The crude oil price doesn't change, unless output drops more, eg to 25 processed and 25 sold. But, the same could be done by RF without burning refineries - just decrease well output to 75 to have 50 processed and 25 sold, and the price would go up (Saudis do that sometimes).
Please note that i'm talking about crude oil price, not processed products.
"the Ukrainians in January embarked on a campaign to degrade Russia’s ability to produce refined fossil fuel products, by hitting refineries.
It is clear the point is not to attack Russian oil exports directly. Were that the case, for instance, we would almost certainly have seen repeated attacks against pipeline infrastructure carrying Russian crude into Belarus and onwards into Europe. This the Ukrainians are studiously avoiding."
Thanks Tom for the report, is the artillary shell shortage allowing the Russians to advance be it incremental but advancing just the same or is it a change in UAF tactics or a combo of both
Regarding the Crocus Concert attack (from BBC & ABC):
40 Dead
150+ wounded
Collapse of the roof of the concert hall
ISIL claimed attack
15 days ago US State Dept. put out a notice that an Islamic Extremist group was likely to attack a large public gathering....specifically mentioning a CONCERT VENUE within 48 hours (obviously a little tardy on the timing).
PUTIN said that the US was trying to make them (Russia) scared and .....whatever.
TOM: with the collapse of the roof, were any other killed. I.E. were the Russians able to get all the wounded out before the collapse???
From BBC: ""They were just walking and gunning down everyone methodically in silence. Sound was echoing and we could not understand what was where," concertgoer Anastasia Rodionova recalled."
Rhetorical question: wouldn't Islamic Terrorists be loudly and vociferously proclaiming GLORY TO ALLAH when they are shooting and CUDDLING infidels???
They were not. The fire dept came quickly but they were not allowed to start their work before the police came. The police reacted after an hour - and this in a suburb of Moscow which is always full of police. They broke into the building and found out that the attackers have already left long time ago. The searching for the attackers took enough time for the roof to collapse.
This action is to 90% FSB action, so authorities were interested in bloody attack and not interested in saving people. Thats why Rosguards came after 1hr (their base is like 2,5km away from Crokus), emergency exits were blocked, metal detection frames and most cams were not functional etc…
There is plenty videos with captured “attackers”: they were hired anonimously for 500k-1kk roubles, have used same car for 550km rush… they do not look like people able cold bloody killing 100+ innocent civilians. And btw, do you remember any jikhadists captured?))
- how many cities and towns did I mention as cut off electricity?
- Are you complaining as bitterly when the Israelis instigate another massacre on Palestinian civilians and then this is not mentioned with a single letter in the Western media?
If I recall correctly this past attack has cut power on 20+ cities. I am thinking that it was about 8-12 specific power plant targets.
As far as Israel.......personally I am thinking along the lines of the end of Spartacus. But the line of crucifications along the Appion Way would be the uber conservation "Citizens of Israel" who do to others as the Nazis did unto them and Hamas. I am pissed off to the point that I have to walk away from news FREQUENTLY.
Hey....I know what....elect ME as President. Then you would get honesty....lots of four-letter words and hiring some Austrian Dude as an advisor...regardless of just HOW many "Evil" goverments have him on the payroll.
Thanks for the update. FT is reporting that global prices for oil refinery products are up by 10% due to the attacks on Russian refineries. As well that the US government is putting pressure on Ukraine to stop this. I wonder what your thoughts on this are.
If that is still not obvious: that the US government consists of incompetents out of touch with reality.
And re. GLCMs: we'll see once it's confirmed as in service. It's pointless to guess about something about which I do not know even the actual speed nor range or payload.
With all due respect to the American people, their politicians are a circus now. It seems the MAGA want to oost the house speaker again. Because of the vote not to shut down their own government... Indeed the most important to them is not the surrounding reality, but making a hard life for Biden. With these evolutions, it's becoming highly unlikely that the Congress will approve an aid package to Ukraine before the elections. I really hope I am wrong...
Do not be quick with USA denouncing. Russia is exporting crude oil mostly and this export has increased despite Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Higher the oil prices, more revenue for Russia. USA is pumping oil more than usual, but Saudis and OPEC are limiting mining. Because OPEC countries, like Russia, like to have a bit higher prices (and blame Ukraine for that.). (If Saudis would lower the oil prices by just $10 per barrel, Russian National Wealth Fund would be dry in one year.)
On the other hand USA is working hard to make India to import less Russian oil. More higher the oil price, more reluctant would be Indian government to cooperate.
Attacking refineries should increase price of gasoline and diesel fuel, not raw oil. Raw oil exports from Russia should actually increase if they have less processing capabilities.
Aren't the massive attacks on infrastructure also an admission that Moscow doesn't expect to gain control of most of Ukraine any time soon?
Their only "gains" so far have been to capture totally destroyed towns, which will take billions to rebuild, if they can even do that.
So, unfortunately, this may be the beginning of an aerial "scorched earth" policy. Rather like Rogozhin's villain in The Idiot, Putin may now feel "if I can't have Ukraine, nobody can..."
If this was a US-Jewish war, every Ukrainian city would have already been cluster-bombed into oblivion already. Even just the idea of paying some shitheads to go mow down Russian civilians, I smell CIA.
Well Tom there was quite an interesting chain of events last night. I compiled all the Telegram footage I could find in my video editor and uploaded it to YouTube. It was immediately hidden because RT of all people had made a copyright claim on one of the cellphone clips. I wrote an appeal basically, in more polite words, telling them to fuck off because a cellphone clip vomited on Telegram is effectively in the public domain. RT social media team apparently got their heads out of their asses and approved my appeal a few minutes later. Then 5 minutes after, someone at YouTube deleted my video altogether and gave me a strike. I think Google got an order from the Dept. of State to not let anyone see footage from non regime-approved channels.
....which is particularly silly because - if I understand you right - 'Russia Today' (RT?) is state-owned, and thus within public domain... Thus, nobody has the right to complain about 'misuse/violation of copyrights'.
Rather my point. Putin has now given up on taking economically viable parts of Ukraine.
As to the attack, the problem is: cui bono?
It doesn't benefit either Ukraine or the West. Just Islamists.
Indeed, it actually can--and will--be used by Putin as "proof" that the CIA did it. Even the embassy warning will be turned into deza.
Lastly, the idea that Sleepy (and cautious) Joe Biden suddenly authorized it is laughable. If the administration has been constantly afraid of giving weapons to Ukraine because of a Russian nuke retaliation, they wouldn't aid an attack like this.
Russia already has all of the economically viable parts of Ukraine except Odessa. The problem is that whatever is left of Ukraine will just be a hub of international terrorism, and an arms dump for NATO. At this point, a complete partition is likely the only solution that doesn't result in a European ISIS that's a thorn in Russia's side forever.
Once Putin's Russians take over, the economic viability of any enterprise plummets.
So, since nearly everyone in Donbas ahs been conscripted, and many are now dead, don't look for any economic viability in Donbas for the foreseeable future.
Russians don't do the same only because they don't have air forces of USA and Ukraine is not a Gaza. They would like to cover bomb with fab 3000 from tu 22, but Ukraine have more than Stingers
Absolute total nonsense. Throw enough cluster munitions at Kiev and there isn't an AD system in the world that could stop all of it. It's hilarious that anyone pushes this meme after Houthis showed they can come *close* to oversaturating AD just with shit they bought on the internet.
They completely destroyed Chechnia before first making a peace deal, then blasting their leader with an air-guided missile, then violating the peace deal and conquering the place. BTW, multiple FSB-organized terror acts were involved:
Most of it still isn't rebuilt. Just a few show poorly built apartments.
HIs oil infrastructure is being destroyed, he will have a permanent demographic problem, and reversion to a peace time economy will be difficult if not impossible.
Russia is going to be a very poor place when this ends--and a poor place facing a rearmed Europe.
And if Putin has to rebuild a conquered Ukraine on his own, Russian will be far poorer. Even China's help will just leave Russia a powerless vassal.
no but selling passports to terrorists and refusing to honor extradition of terrorists, allowing them to escape instead, does make Ukraine a terrorist hub.
ISIS-K is a known sock puppet for the CIA. An attack like this is completely consistent with how the USA operates. Time for some hybrid retaliation, and it will be richly deserved.
Look up the complaints from the Afghan government that the US was airlifting foreign jihadists to fight in "ISIS-K." Or just use common sense. The Taliban, Houthis, and Hamas have all condemned the attack. Why would a real Islamic movement attack Russia? It doesn't even make sense.
Yeah, those "radical Islamic terrorists" who conveniently attack all of the USA's geopolitical opponents and never Israel. No one with half a brain actually believes ISIS is an independent entity and not a CIA strawman.
You said "well-known sock puppet". Evidence for that? If it's "well known", there must be info in the net, but I find nothing. Sure, it makes no sense for Islamic radicals to attack Russia. I agree. But that doesn't prove a CIA connection, by itself.
"Cui bono?" is always a good question but all too often a question asked when reasoning backwards from a conclusion. Especially when it comes to the Putin 'stans.
Well, the reasoning (if any) of this guy seems to be "it's a false flag of CIA", but then I don't understand what would be the benefit of America out of a terrorist attack on Moscow. Or maybe something will happen in Syria. The reaction of Erdoğan was interesting in this respect.
Likewise, there were so many stories of Western spies and Western assets infiltrating the group in the pre 2022 period. It almost became a new literature genre on its own.
Why make no sense? What about ruz ambassador killed in Istanbul, revenge for many islamic people killed by ruzz. Do you support pudding marasmus Ukraine did it?
The attack on the Russian refineries perhaps forced Russia to take unplanned steps. The air strikes on the ukrainian enelectricity chain in March didn't cause many problems like in the winter 2022-2023. Russia delayed with this strickes if they was planned or they was a reaction to the ukrainian strikes.
It means that Ukraine imposes to Russia the way to continue this war. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think Russia planned to strike SBU offices or a sea drone facility which is hidden somewhere in Ukraine.
- Russia escalates (probably overwhelming the Ukrainian AD, destroying power plants or using chemical weapons on a large scale)
- They try to suppress the international support of Ukraine by labeling Ukrainians as "terrorists" for "nazi" did not stick
False flag terror was first used to prove the need of violating the peace deal with Chechnya and conquering it, then to cut the international ties with Chechen refugees and its government in exile.
They have caught 5 young Tajiks and tortured them into saying that they were found over the Internet and proposed money for killing people and promised a safe border crossing to Ukraine. Contrast that to the perfectly orchestrated assault worthy of a SWAT team.
How does this square with the state department warning? Presumably the FSB would also have had to put out misinformation to deceive the CIA, who then thought ISIS was planning it, rather than it being a Russian false flag.
FSB has reportedly arrested several ISIS members after the CIA warning.
I don't know what happened, but the assaulter are told to be able to reload their rifles while they walked so that the shooting was continuous. Their actions were synchronized perfectly. While the arrested ones are just youth.
Yeah my money is on false flag, but feeding the CIA the line about ISIS-K puts the Western media in quite a confused mode. Putin is literally the only case in which the Western establishment will ever countenance such conspiracy theories (historically, with respect to Chechnya), but if it was an FSB op they'll struggle to walk back initial attribution to ISIS. Putin will have wrong footed them basically.
IMO that does not look like ISIS because those Muslims would have been looking for martyrdom. Fleeing the place only to be captured a day later makes zero sense for martyrs. The ISIS could have just used the event to advertise itself.
Why would the Russians need "justification for mobilization"? They have a couple million ready reserves, which they didn't even need to touch during 2023 because they had so many volunteers.
Maybe justification for some dire, some really vicious attack on Kyiv. Some big escalation. That we can imagine. Coincidence that they now start talking about "war", rather than "SMO"? False flag is certainly in the Russian toolbox.
We can also very well imagine that this is a Budanov caper. He does this kind of thing out of pure viciousness. Pure viciousness and perhaps also trying to get Russia to overreact, so that the aid packages would finally get released. Kind of the Hamas MO.
I don't see CIA in this. Not their style. And what possible interest would they have?
I don't think the videos posted by ISIL prove anything. Could have been passed over to them by either Ukrainians or Russians.
AND we should not forget that all this is PURE SPECULATION. We are just chewing the fat here. We don't actually know anything yet.
ISIS is what backfired in America's 2nd war on Iraq - disempowered Sunni's taking back what they can. The "Obama founded ISIS" meme is just one of Trump's carefree lies where the lie is so ridiculous and opposite of true it just ties up the conversation with nonsense. Wise never to take a word out of American noise as true. Those sources don't know anything and aren't interested in knowing anything. They're just fighting domestic US politics.
I wonder if there are any signs of an uprising in Chechnya or other Muslim regions, or even if not, whether the idea of such could wrapped into Putin's pretext-for-mobilisation narrative. It's not impossible Western intel could be stirring things up using ISIS-K as a proxy, it's also of course not impossible this could be a repeat of the 1999 false flag FSB bombings.
I think that the Ukrainian government will have to do the step of mobilization general Zaluzhny was asking in the previous year. Russia is gearing up for an existential war since the previous year, and the West is still slow to react (that story about oil prices rising = bad for elections is quite enlightening)
I agree. But I understand the Ukrainians. I don't want to say now something very sad. I will only say that without a serious military support from the West, there is not much light at the end of the tunnel, despite any mobilisation.
The mobilisation will help also to rotate the exhausted veterans out of the battle. They are fighting for more than two years, so they are starting to crack under the immense pressure.
I think the Ukrainians are the first ones to know this. It's their people there. They can find the better solution for them. But they need support. History is teaching us that without support we are not OK in this part of Europe.
Money is one of the key problems of mobilization, and giving them a ton of money would help a lot. But will it help enough?
Mobilization potential and military production are the two biggest factors in the outcomes of long wars. Western support helps with the second thing (without solving it), but the grim math of the first thing may simply be inescapable, if NATO doesn't put boots on the ground. Which may be what is behind Macron's recent shenanigans.
In Ukraine there are publicly more than 1 million people already mobilized, not more than 300K on front line. Who stops commanders in charge to rotate veterans? This is all BS propaganda there is no one to rotate with. Why they have to fight 4-5 days without having a sleep in trenches until they are ended, like it was in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Soledar, etc..?
For example, in World War II, approximately one in sixteen troops saw and participated in sustained combat.
Behind the front line troops there are transport troops, which make up the majority of the total amount (for example, approximately 5% of American troops in the Pacific campaign saw battle). In Vietnam, approximately 10% of total troops saw battle.
Ukrainian mobilization is a giant, possibly unsolvable problem. It's very, very hard to find the bodies, and even if they could be found, there is no money to pay or equip them. This is Ukraine's main problem, and may well lose the war for them. It's not for nothing that they haven't to this day been able to agree on a mobilization plan -- there just isn't any practical way to do it. Zaluzhny knew that when he said he needed 500k additional troops and $350-400 billion to stop the Russians. He was basically explaining with this that the war can't be won. He was fired exactly for that.
I meant that rotating out of the front was the last step before eventual discharge. Some of the veterans could undertake the training of the new recruits, but the majority would return to their jobs etc
Zaluzhny never said that. It was Zelensky why told on press conference he needs to mobilize additional 500K troops. Zaluzhnuy basically rejected such statement. Recently Z-team announced they don't need so much people to mobilize, as they found a reserve.
Muslim uprising in Russia seems far-fetched, and IMHO this is dangerous for the West, too. Western Intel doesn't want that. Although, of course, it might happen despite what the Western Intel wants. I think the dillema of the West is how to defeat Russia without its disintegration. After all, it is a country with 6000 nuclear bombs. Maybe we don't take Medvedev seriously with his threats, but some terrorist organisations with nukes would be a very different thing.
Muslim regions in Russia are calm. It's not about this. People who don't know the region project Middle Eastern paradigms on Russia which don't in fact apply at all. Russian Muslims (largest number are Tatars) are on the average at least as patriotic as other Russians. See how many are fighting in Ukraine.
According to Norwegian news sources Peskov used the Word « War » to describe the situation in Ukraine. A war with the west. The analysis given for the reason of this language shift was (surprise surprise) as a preparation for a general mobilization. Now you write « while I’m joining the army of those wondering if this is another of FSB’s false flag operations: a ‘terrorist attack in Moscow’ would ‘automatically authorise’ Pudding to do whatever he wants to do… (including mobilising youngsters Muscovites). ». Damn « lucky » with that attack Putin? I don’t know whether he simply allowed it to happen or orchestrated it. But the attack suited him well, and he will use it.
you can count on Putin and the Russian regime to exploit this attack, even if it wasn't orchestrated by them - the 87% of votes recorded for Putin gives them lots of leeway to label every dissenter as 'traitor' and 'enemy of mother Russia' etc.
Regarding your analysis the crux of it seems to be that Russian attacks are slowly and expensively creeping forward. Their airforce is not stopped in its attacks and the ground troops are dying but grinding on. One can of course hope that this type of attacks becomes so expensive that the troops break, but I don’t really believe so. Breaking will first happen when they stop advancing. And while this hurts Russia in decades to come that doesn’t stop Putin. So something has to be done to stop Russian progress. Probably means some change in tactics.
Maybe some more da..ed art ammo from West (USA) could help?
Whatewer tactics you use, if you have no arti, you have simply no chance
Not to talk about more air def to protect troops and to cover Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipro
Agreed. You need the ammo.
The US has found a way to send another PDA package this month, citing savings from overperformance on defense contracts.
In regards of attack on Ru, I would also mention units of Chechenian batalion, Georgian legion and K.Kalinovsky regiment. They are all doing great!
Haven't seen any reports about them being involved in current raids.
I suppose you mean Bogdanivka, not Bilohorivka, when writing about Bakhmut
Yup. Have misplaced a piece of text. Is corrected now.
Сегодня был сложный день. Привет Вам из Запорожья.
Українською слабо?
Тебе заняться нечем? Зашёл в блог к Тому и придрался к комментарию на русском языке. Я не тебе писала. Якщо я пишу російською мовою, а ти українською, то це не означає, що ти більшій патріот ніж я.
40% of refining capacity is probably a wild exaggeration, but somewhere between 10 and 15% seems realistic, and I think this is already beyond the spare capacity Russia had, and cutting into exports. A few more good strikes, and there might be domestic deficit, which would be difficult to alleviate, because Russian petroleum infrastructure is not meant for imports. This game might - just might - pay off for Ukraine.
Well, according to news in Kyiv Biden told them to stop that as increasing oil prices are bad for his reelection. I hope that is wrong or that Budanov just gives a shit.
The article was written by guy who searched nazists in Ukraine few years ago. And moreover, no one knows is it position of White house or some burocrat from election office. Anyway, refiniers continue to burn
Thanks for the information
Much reporting out of the US is simply made up, vaguely cobbled together out of past articles, presumed and slanted. There's not a chance that Biden or Blinken have proclaimed 'Please stop blowing up oil infrastructure' nor mentioned election.
I've 'searched Nazis in Ukraine few years ago'?
No, a journalist who wrote the article for Financial Time
No matter if true or not, and no matter if Ukrainian strikes continue to succeed or not, I would expect an oil price hike closer to the US elections, as both Putin and MBS much prefer to see Trump in the WH. If I were Biden, I'd be speaking about this now, publicly and loudly. And I would also try to defy the powerful green lobby and give incentives to US producers to increase production, which is technically quite feasible.
That doesn't make sense, actually.
Refineries produce petrol from oil. So these attacks can possibly affect petrol/diesel price, but not crude oil price. One can even speculate, that the less crude oil is transformed into petrol, the more crude oil is available for export, so that could actually decrease oil prices.
A lot of diesel and similar products come from Russia, hence the spike in diesel price at the start of the war. So it may make a difference.
Pipelines are running to or cross refineries so you can expect that those are hit to.
If so, that would be just a local pipeline branch connected to the refinery, not the mainline. And so far, UAVs mostly targeted refinery towers (I don't remember any reports about pipelines being hit, except one in Feodosiya).
Ok, then the detailed answer. A pipelines capacity is determined by its diameter. They are normally built close to expected throughput. You can't get more through as the pipe would burst due to pressure.
As you mentioned refineries are an end node of such pipelines. Hence, they oil is expected to be processed there and then shipped of to the consumer in form of fuel, chemical intermediaries or even tar for road construction. As you can't store the oil at the refinery that is coming through the pipeline (no, those huge thanks standing around at refineries won't help for long), you have to shut the oilwell down if it exceeds alternative pipeline capacity. So that oil is falling out of the market and the consumers of those refinery need to get their oil products from somewhere else.
Due to the fact that oil products are pricewise highly inelastic (remember the negative oil prices during covid?), that has a direct influence on the oil price as that oil destined for that refinery is off the market but the consumption demand for those oil products is still there.
Wait-wait-wait, you mix some things up.
There are oil wells which produce crude oil, transported through pipelines to refineries, oil depots or transport terminals. Oil from terminals is transported somewhere, usually sold abroad. Same goes for cross-border international pipelines.
Now lets assume that oil wells produce 100 barrels of crude oil, of which 50 barrels are sent to refineries to make fuels and 50 are sold abroad as crude oil. After decreasing refineries capacity, let's say, only 25 barrels can be processed. So there are +25 crude oil barrels, which can be either sold abroad or stored in depots. If they are sold, crude oil price goes down (same demand, higher proposal, lower price). If they are stored - price doesn't change.
Now, if some oil well are shut down to avoid excess oil - oil output drops to 75 barrels: 25 processed, 50 sold. The crude oil price doesn't change, unless output drops more, eg to 25 processed and 25 sold. But, the same could be done by RF without burning refineries - just decrease well output to 75 to have 50 processed and 25 sold, and the price would go up (Saudis do that sometimes).
Please note that i'm talking about crude oil price, not processed products.
As a side note, let me also quote Stefan Korshak:
"the Ukrainians in January embarked on a campaign to degrade Russia’s ability to produce refined fossil fuel products, by hitting refineries.
It is clear the point is not to attack Russian oil exports directly. Were that the case, for instance, we would almost certainly have seen repeated attacks against pipeline infrastructure carrying Russian crude into Belarus and onwards into Europe. This the Ukrainians are studiously avoiding."
Source: https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/day-760-mar-24-sevastopol-hit-again
Thanks Tom for the report, is the artillary shell shortage allowing the Russians to advance be it incremental but advancing just the same or is it a change in UAF tactics or a combo of both
I would guess that all comes down to 'shell hunger' - the lack of ammunition is influencing everything, tactics included
Regarding the Crocus Concert attack (from BBC & ABC):
40 Dead
150+ wounded
Collapse of the roof of the concert hall
ISIL claimed attack
15 days ago US State Dept. put out a notice that an Islamic Extremist group was likely to attack a large public gathering....specifically mentioning a CONCERT VENUE within 48 hours (obviously a little tardy on the timing).
PUTIN said that the US was trying to make them (Russia) scared and .....whatever.
TOM: with the collapse of the roof, were any other killed. I.E. were the Russians able to get all the wounded out before the collapse???
Sorry mate, no idea: I'm not here, and getting - essentially - the same info you do.
From BBC: ""They were just walking and gunning down everyone methodically in silence. Sound was echoing and we could not understand what was where," concertgoer Anastasia Rodionova recalled."
Rhetorical question: wouldn't Islamic Terrorists be loudly and vociferously proclaiming GLORY TO ALLAH when they are shooting and CUDDLING infidels???
They were not. The fire dept came quickly but they were not allowed to start their work before the police came. The police reacted after an hour - and this in a suburb of Moscow which is always full of police. They broke into the building and found out that the attackers have already left long time ago. The searching for the attackers took enough time for the roof to collapse.
This action is to 90% FSB action, so authorities were interested in bloody attack and not interested in saving people. Thats why Rosguards came after 1hr (their base is like 2,5km away from Crokus), emergency exits were blocked, metal detection frames and most cams were not functional etc…
There is plenty videos with captured “attackers”: they were hired anonimously for 500k-1kk roubles, have used same car for 550km rush… they do not look like people able cold bloody killing 100+ innocent civilians. And btw, do you remember any jikhadists captured?))
130 and counting.
This sounds more and more like the 1999 Russian Apartment Bombings.
Thanks all....
At last check 4 MILLION+ Ukrainians without power.
Two questions here:
- how many cities and towns did I mention as cut off electricity?
- Are you complaining as bitterly when the Israelis instigate another massacre on Palestinian civilians and then this is not mentioned with a single letter in the Western media?
If I recall correctly this past attack has cut power on 20+ cities. I am thinking that it was about 8-12 specific power plant targets.
As far as Israel.......personally I am thinking along the lines of the end of Spartacus. But the line of crucifications along the Appion Way would be the uber conservation "Citizens of Israel" who do to others as the Nazis did unto them and Hamas. I am pissed off to the point that I have to walk away from news FREQUENTLY.
Hey....I know what....elect ME as President. Then you would get honesty....lots of four-letter words and hiring some Austrian Dude as an advisor...regardless of just HOW many "Evil" goverments have him on the payroll.
Thanks for the update. FT is reporting that global prices for oil refinery products are up by 10% due to the attacks on Russian refineries. As well that the US government is putting pressure on Ukraine to stop this. I wonder what your thoughts on this are.
Also, this(https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1771159913902882861?s=20) is an interesting concept for a Ukrainian GLCM. I wonder what your thoughts on how effective such cheap versions are compared to say the KH-555,101s, 22s, Neptune.
If that is still not obvious: that the US government consists of incompetents out of touch with reality.
And re. GLCMs: we'll see once it's confirmed as in service. It's pointless to guess about something about which I do not know even the actual speed nor range or payload.
With all due respect to the American people, their politicians are a circus now. It seems the MAGA want to oost the house speaker again. Because of the vote not to shut down their own government... Indeed the most important to them is not the surrounding reality, but making a hard life for Biden. With these evolutions, it's becoming highly unlikely that the Congress will approve an aid package to Ukraine before the elections. I really hope I am wrong...
Do not be quick with USA denouncing. Russia is exporting crude oil mostly and this export has increased despite Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Higher the oil prices, more revenue for Russia. USA is pumping oil more than usual, but Saudis and OPEC are limiting mining. Because OPEC countries, like Russia, like to have a bit higher prices (and blame Ukraine for that.). (If Saudis would lower the oil prices by just $10 per barrel, Russian National Wealth Fund would be dry in one year.)
On the other hand USA is working hard to make India to import less Russian oil. More higher the oil price, more reluctant would be Indian government to cooperate.
Attacking refineries should increase price of gasoline and diesel fuel, not raw oil. Raw oil exports from Russia should actually increase if they have less processing capabilities.
Aren't the massive attacks on infrastructure also an admission that Moscow doesn't expect to gain control of most of Ukraine any time soon?
Their only "gains" so far have been to capture totally destroyed towns, which will take billions to rebuild, if they can even do that.
So, unfortunately, this may be the beginning of an aerial "scorched earth" policy. Rather like Rogozhin's villain in The Idiot, Putin may now feel "if I can't have Ukraine, nobody can..."
If this was a US-Jewish war, every Ukrainian city would have already been cluster-bombed into oblivion already. Even just the idea of paying some shitheads to go mow down Russian civilians, I smell CIA.
Reptiloid here.
Yes the "reptilians". I also notice that Facebook and YouTube are actively censoring the news.
....and not only them. All the complains about being called 'anti-Semite' are in vain...
Well Tom there was quite an interesting chain of events last night. I compiled all the Telegram footage I could find in my video editor and uploaded it to YouTube. It was immediately hidden because RT of all people had made a copyright claim on one of the cellphone clips. I wrote an appeal basically, in more polite words, telling them to fuck off because a cellphone clip vomited on Telegram is effectively in the public domain. RT social media team apparently got their heads out of their asses and approved my appeal a few minutes later. Then 5 minutes after, someone at YouTube deleted my video altogether and gave me a strike. I think Google got an order from the Dept. of State to not let anyone see footage from non regime-approved channels.
....which is particularly silly because - if I understand you right - 'Russia Today' (RT?) is state-owned, and thus within public domain... Thus, nobody has the right to complain about 'misuse/violation of copyrights'.
Rather my point. Putin has now given up on taking economically viable parts of Ukraine.
As to the attack, the problem is: cui bono?
It doesn't benefit either Ukraine or the West. Just Islamists.
Indeed, it actually can--and will--be used by Putin as "proof" that the CIA did it. Even the embassy warning will be turned into deza.
Lastly, the idea that Sleepy (and cautious) Joe Biden suddenly authorized it is laughable. If the administration has been constantly afraid of giving weapons to Ukraine because of a Russian nuke retaliation, they wouldn't aid an attack like this.
An unfalsifiable argument...
Russia already has all of the economically viable parts of Ukraine except Odessa. The problem is that whatever is left of Ukraine will just be a hub of international terrorism, and an arms dump for NATO. At this point, a complete partition is likely the only solution that doesn't result in a European ISIS that's a thorn in Russia's side forever.
Sorry, a Donbas whose main export is coal is "economically viable " in the 21st C????
Even now Ukraine's main export is grain, which Russia will have to take field by field.
And the main growth in Kyiv's economy is from high tech, currently now devoted to war. If Russia wins, all that expertise goes West.
24 Feb 2022 just insured that, whatever the outcome, Russia will remain just another very poor third world exporter of raw materials, per capita wise.
Until the demand for their raw materials dries up, that is...
There was much metal industry in Donbas which IIRC made the third largest export of Ukraine (after agriculture and the gas pipe).
Once Putin's Russians take over, the economic viability of any enterprise plummets.
So, since nearly everyone in Donbas ahs been conscripted, and many are now dead, don't look for any economic viability in Donbas for the foreseeable future.
Just the way Putin's economy works.
I've seen it first hand...
The pipe income maxed in 2019 at $5,9B (much less before and after).
Herbal products alone in 2019 were about $12B.
Metals - about $12B too.
So, no, even after the loss of Donbas and following disruption of the industrly at all the pipe wasn't the 2nd largest export of Ukraine.
Russians don't do the same only because they don't have air forces of USA and Ukraine is not a Gaza. They would like to cover bomb with fab 3000 from tu 22, but Ukraine have more than Stingers
Absolute total nonsense. Throw enough cluster munitions at Kiev and there isn't an AD system in the world that could stop all of it. It's hilarious that anyone pushes this meme after Houthis showed they can come *close* to oversaturating AD just with shit they bought on the internet.
They completely destroyed Chechnia before first making a peace deal, then blasting their leader with an air-guided missile, then violating the peace deal and conquering the place. BTW, multiple FSB-organized terror acts were involved:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings#Alleged_Russian_government_involvement
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege#Responsibility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis#Claims_of_FSB_involvement
No dispute that the NKVD/KGB/FSB is absolutely ruthless.
But Chechnya wasn't an extremely valuable economic prize. They could destroy it as an example.
Ukraine is different. If Putin can't take it, his only real alternative is to destroy it, so its riches don't remain in anyone else's hands...
He can first destroy then occupy. As with Mariupol.
With what?
Most of it still isn't rebuilt. Just a few show poorly built apartments.
HIs oil infrastructure is being destroyed, he will have a permanent demographic problem, and reversion to a peace time economy will be difficult if not impossible.
Russia is going to be a very poor place when this ends--and a poor place facing a rearmed Europe.
And if Putin has to rebuild a conquered Ukraine on his own, Russian will be far poorer. Even China's help will just leave Russia a powerless vassal.
The less rebuilt a country is, the more cheap workforce its ruler has.
A cheap work force is the least of your problems with rebuilding a devastated country. Russians already work pretty cheap now.
Need things like machinery and building materials.
If Putin took over now, he'd have a huge bill to pay for the devastation so far--and a domain where most of the population has fled or is hostile.
I suspect his hope now is to conquer all of the four provinces, and try to force Ukraine to give up all its coastline.
Even that is may be out of reach now, with the House GOP collapsing into anarchy again.
Russia is heavily trying to advertise how tthey have "rebuir" Mariupol. They have organized media events in Italy and Germany do far. I wonder why.
The destruction of Azovstal pretty much ended the economic foundation of the city. Another Putin "own goal."
And cheap labour isn't going to rebuild it.
Only billions of dollars/euros.
Chechnya could have stayed independent if they didn't become an international terrorism hub. Like the Ukraine.
Ukraine is international terrorism hub? Are you mad?
was every western news outlet prior to 24 Feb 2022 "mad"? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/isis-leaders-ukraine-tukey-syria-caliphate-al-bara-shishani-a9211676.html
So what? Terrorist has been arrested in Ukraine means it's terrorism hub? You are really the One!
no but selling passports to terrorists and refusing to honor extradition of terrorists, allowing them to escape instead, does make Ukraine a terrorist hub.
ISIS-K is a known sock puppet for the CIA. An attack like this is completely consistent with how the USA operates. Time for some hybrid retaliation, and it will be richly deserved.
Known by whom? Source?
Look up the complaints from the Afghan government that the US was airlifting foreign jihadists to fight in "ISIS-K." Or just use common sense. The Taliban, Houthis, and Hamas have all condemned the attack. Why would a real Islamic movement attack Russia? It doesn't even make sense.
In Syria the Russians continue happily to bomb Assad's opponents and ISIS still has a few thousand fighters who must not appreciate these strikes.
Yeah, those "radical Islamic terrorists" who conveniently attack all of the USA's geopolitical opponents and never Israel. No one with half a brain actually believes ISIS is an independent entity and not a CIA strawman.
....yeah: ISIS = CIA+Mosad+al-Qaeda conspiracy... at least lots of Pudding-fans think so.
Oh come on. ISIS literally APOLOGIZED to Isn'treal after accidentally shooting at some of their soldiers. I don't understand how any non re tarded person could think ISIS is anything but a CIA/Mossad sock puppet. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4456130/ISIS-fighters-APOLOGISED-attack-Israeli-soldiers.html
Khorasan is not Syria and fighting the only califat in the world to get a califat is a little bit unprecise I would say.
You said "well-known sock puppet". Evidence for that? If it's "well known", there must be info in the net, but I find nothing. Sure, it makes no sense for Islamic radicals to attack Russia. I agree. But that doesn't prove a CIA connection, by itself.
He's just one of those guys thinking they've "discovered the truth" being anti-american.
"Cui bono?" is always a good question but all too often a question asked when reasoning backwards from a conclusion. Especially when it comes to the Putin 'stans.
Well, the reasoning (if any) of this guy seems to be "it's a false flag of CIA", but then I don't understand what would be the benefit of America out of a terrorist attack on Moscow. Or maybe something will happen in Syria. The reaction of Erdoğan was interesting in this respect.
Well known by literally anybody who kept even a distant eye toward Afghanistan in the past decade.
If you actually ever bothered to follow even an handful of Afghans voices, you would be familiar with such instances.
Hell, even die hard Americans fanatics talked about it.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/11/us-military-continues-to-spin-a-taliban-victory-against-islamic-state-as-its-own.php
Likewise, there were so many stories of Western spies and Western assets infiltrating the group in the pre 2022 period. It almost became a new literature genre on its own.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-uk-spies-mosul-attack-latest-fear-desertions-revenge-traitors-executions-a7370451.html
Its not like ISIS was the first non-state actor thoroughly infiltrated by established intelligence services.
Why make no sense? What about ruz ambassador killed in Istanbul, revenge for many islamic people killed by ruzz. Do you support pudding marasmus Ukraine did it?
ISIS-K is a sock puppet of the CIA?
In CIA's wet dreams - sure... 🙄
The attack on the Russian refineries perhaps forced Russia to take unplanned steps. The air strikes on the ukrainian enelectricity chain in March didn't cause many problems like in the winter 2022-2023. Russia delayed with this strickes if they was planned or they was a reaction to the ukrainian strikes.
It means that Ukraine imposes to Russia the way to continue this war. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think Russia planned to strike SBU offices or a sea drone facility which is hidden somewhere in Ukraine.
Tom, you have missed that the yesterday's terror attack was a major event of this war. The whole sequence of looks like this:
- European countries begin to wake up
- Ukraine strikes refineries
- Putin's elections are over
- Russian diplomats start calling the war a war
- Russians destroy a Ukrainian power plant (which is not an escalation as they've already blasted the Kakhovka dam)
- There is a well-organized massacre in a suburb of Moscow with police appearing after an hour when the attackers have already left
- All the Russian news and Telegram bots blame the terror attack on Ukraine https://meduza.io/news/2024/03/23/v-kremle-dali-ukazanie-gosudarstvennym-i-loyalnym-vlasti-smi-podcherkivat-v-soobscheniyah-o-terakte-v-krokuse-vozmozhnyy-ukrainskiy-sled and see what happens in the comments in https://t.me/grey_zone for example <- WE ARE HERE
- Russia escalates (probably overwhelming the Ukrainian AD, destroying power plants or using chemical weapons on a large scale)
- They try to suppress the international support of Ukraine by labeling Ukrainians as "terrorists" for "nazi" did not stick
False flag terror was first used to prove the need of violating the peace deal with Chechnya and conquering it, then to cut the international ties with Chechen refugees and its government in exile.
Right. The FSB coordination in this attack cannot be excluded, like it was in 1999 with the apartment bombings. This tragedy serves only to Putin.
They have caught 5 young Tajiks and tortured them into saying that they were found over the Internet and proposed money for killing people and promised a safe border crossing to Ukraine. Contrast that to the perfectly orchestrated assault worthy of a SWAT team.
How does this square with the state department warning? Presumably the FSB would also have had to put out misinformation to deceive the CIA, who then thought ISIS was planning it, rather than it being a Russian false flag.
FSB has reportedly arrested several ISIS members after the CIA warning.
I don't know what happened, but the assaulter are told to be able to reload their rifles while they walked so that the shooting was continuous. Their actions were synchronized perfectly. While the arrested ones are just youth.
The whole case resembles the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov#Criticism_of_the_official_investigation which was blamed on Chechen fighters who had zero reason to kill him.
Yeah my money is on false flag, but feeding the CIA the line about ISIS-K puts the Western media in quite a confused mode. Putin is literally the only case in which the Western establishment will ever countenance such conspiracy theories (historically, with respect to Chechnya), but if it was an FSB op they'll struggle to walk back initial attribution to ISIS. Putin will have wrong footed them basically.
ISIS men would have desired to be killed on spot and go directly to heaven, not flee and go to jail.
So, this is the official Russian version? Not ISIS?
Yes, and they started blaming Ukraine even before they caught the men
https://t.me/meduzalive/103070
https://meduza.io/paragraph/2024/03/23/putin-spustya-19-chasov-posle-terakta-v-krokuse-obratilsya-k-rossiyanam
https://meduza.io/news/2024/03/23/v-kremle-dali-ukazanie-gosudarstvennym-i-loyalnym-vlasti-smi-podcherkivat-v-soobscheniyah-o-terakte-v-krokuse-vozmozhnyy-ukrainskiy-sled
https://meduza.io/news/2024/03/23/zachem-zastrelil-za-dengi-margarita-simonyan-opublikovala-video-doprosa-muzhchiny-zaderzhannogo-posle-terakta-v-krokuse
https://meduza.io/news/2024/03/23/ntv-pokazal-v-novostyah-feykovoe-video-gde-sekretar-snbo-ukrainy-podtverdil-prichastnost-kievskogo-rezhima-k-teraktu-v-krokus-siti-holle
IMO that does not look like ISIS because those Muslims would have been looking for martyrdom. Fleeing the place only to be captured a day later makes zero sense for martyrs. The ISIS could have just used the event to advertise itself.
Yes, they blamed Ukraine even before ISIS said something. A terrorist attack is a perfect justification for the mobilisation in Russia.
Why would the Russians need "justification for mobilization"? They have a couple million ready reserves, which they didn't even need to touch during 2023 because they had so many volunteers.
Maybe justification for some dire, some really vicious attack on Kyiv. Some big escalation. That we can imagine. Coincidence that they now start talking about "war", rather than "SMO"? False flag is certainly in the Russian toolbox.
We can also very well imagine that this is a Budanov caper. He does this kind of thing out of pure viciousness. Pure viciousness and perhaps also trying to get Russia to overreact, so that the aid packages would finally get released. Kind of the Hamas MO.
I don't see CIA in this. Not their style. And what possible interest would they have?
I don't think the videos posted by ISIL prove anything. Could have been passed over to them by either Ukrainians or Russians.
AND we should not forget that all this is PURE SPECULATION. We are just chewing the fat here. We don't actually know anything yet.
ISIS is what backfired in America's 2nd war on Iraq - disempowered Sunni's taking back what they can. The "Obama founded ISIS" meme is just one of Trump's carefree lies where the lie is so ridiculous and opposite of true it just ties up the conversation with nonsense. Wise never to take a word out of American noise as true. Those sources don't know anything and aren't interested in knowing anything. They're just fighting domestic US politics.
Interesting. I didn't know that.
I wonder if there are any signs of an uprising in Chechnya or other Muslim regions, or even if not, whether the idea of such could wrapped into Putin's pretext-for-mobilisation narrative. It's not impossible Western intel could be stirring things up using ISIS-K as a proxy, it's also of course not impossible this could be a repeat of the 1999 false flag FSB bombings.
In any case, we will see obviously a hard time of suffering for Ukraine. Putin's speech was pretty clear.
I think that the Ukrainian government will have to do the step of mobilization general Zaluzhny was asking in the previous year. Russia is gearing up for an existential war since the previous year, and the West is still slow to react (that story about oil prices rising = bad for elections is quite enlightening)
I agree. But I understand the Ukrainians. I don't want to say now something very sad. I will only say that without a serious military support from the West, there is not much light at the end of the tunnel, despite any mobilisation.
The mobilisation will help also to rotate the exhausted veterans out of the battle. They are fighting for more than two years, so they are starting to crack under the immense pressure.
This video should give you a sense of the tiredness and the complaints raised by the front line troops: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZarLse4jF0
I think the Ukrainians are the first ones to know this. It's their people there. They can find the better solution for them. But they need support. History is teaching us that without support we are not OK in this part of Europe.
Money is one of the key problems of mobilization, and giving them a ton of money would help a lot. But will it help enough?
Mobilization potential and military production are the two biggest factors in the outcomes of long wars. Western support helps with the second thing (without solving it), but the grim math of the first thing may simply be inescapable, if NATO doesn't put boots on the ground. Which may be what is behind Macron's recent shenanigans.
In Ukraine there are publicly more than 1 million people already mobilized, not more than 300K on front line. Who stops commanders in charge to rotate veterans? This is all BS propaganda there is no one to rotate with. Why they have to fight 4-5 days without having a sleep in trenches until they are ended, like it was in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Soledar, etc..?
Not all military personnel go to the front line.
For example, in World War II, approximately one in sixteen troops saw and participated in sustained combat.
Behind the front line troops there are transport troops, which make up the majority of the total amount (for example, approximately 5% of American troops in the Pacific campaign saw battle). In Vietnam, approximately 10% of total troops saw battle.
Ukrainian mobilization is a giant, possibly unsolvable problem. It's very, very hard to find the bodies, and even if they could be found, there is no money to pay or equip them. This is Ukraine's main problem, and may well lose the war for them. It's not for nothing that they haven't to this day been able to agree on a mobilization plan -- there just isn't any practical way to do it. Zaluzhny knew that when he said he needed 500k additional troops and $350-400 billion to stop the Russians. He was basically explaining with this that the war can't be won. He was fired exactly for that.
If the older veterans are rotated out, shouldn't this give an equilibrium in defense expenses and equipment needed?
(eg, rotate out 50.000 veterans every six months, as the new recruits are finishing their training and take their place)
You have to keep paying the troops who are rotated out, and you have to train and equip the new ones. It takes money.
I meant that rotating out of the front was the last step before eventual discharge. Some of the veterans could undertake the training of the new recruits, but the majority would return to their jobs etc
Zaluzhny never said that. It was Zelensky why told on press conference he needs to mobilize additional 500K troops. Zaluzhnuy basically rejected such statement. Recently Z-team announced they don't need so much people to mobilize, as they found a reserve.
Muslim uprising in Russia seems far-fetched, and IMHO this is dangerous for the West, too. Western Intel doesn't want that. Although, of course, it might happen despite what the Western Intel wants. I think the dillema of the West is how to defeat Russia without its disintegration. After all, it is a country with 6000 nuclear bombs. Maybe we don't take Medvedev seriously with his threats, but some terrorist organisations with nukes would be a very different thing.
Muslim regions in Russia are calm. It's not about this. People who don't know the region project Middle Eastern paradigms on Russia which don't in fact apply at all. Russian Muslims (largest number are Tatars) are on the average at least as patriotic as other Russians. See how many are fighting in Ukraine.