Ukraine War, 22 March 2024
Good evening everybody!
Sometimes… well, there are days I do not like preparing my summaries/updates the least. Thus, let me just get over to that.
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Not the least sure this is ‘Ukraine-related’, but I have no doubts: Pudding’s going to find a way to make it Ukraine-related…
This evening, there was an attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, shortly before a rock concert. According to a mix of official- and unofficial releases, up to 14-15 (some say: ‘up to 40’) were killed, up to 140 wounded, and while one of up to 10 heavily armed assailants was arrested, several have managed to flee…
Official Kyiv has already denied any kind of involvement; a ‘number of (Russian) sources’ are said to be reporting that it was the ‘Islamic State’ that is behind this attack; some retired FSB colonels are complaining that the USA and UK knew about this attack in advance; and the Houthis expressed their condolences… while I’m joining the army of those wondering if this is another of FSB’s false flag operations: a ‘terrorist attack in Moscow’ would ‘automatically authorise’ Pudding to do whatever he wants to do… (including mobilising youngsters Muscovites).
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AIR WARFARE
According to different of latest German assessments, ‘Budanov’s Raiders’ (‘Part 1’ or ‘those in the air’, i.e. the HUR-operated long-range UAV) have knocked out at 10%, perhaps up to 40% of the total Russian refining capacity. Gauging by all the available reports so far, over the last three months, a total of 12 out of some 30 known refineries have been hit, plus some 2-3 oil-exporting terminals.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the tribune…just a day after one of Ukrainian contacts explained how the efficiency of the Russian Lancets is massively beyond the expected (see: mere 200-250 are manufactured a month and about 80% shot down well before reaching their targets), the Russians released videos showing them striking a Stenka-class gunboat of the Ukrainian Navy in Odesa, and an L-39 training Jet on the Mykolaiv Airport.
Early on 21 March, the Russians run a combined ballistic- and cruise missile strike on HUR and SBU headquarters in Kyiv, and what they described as ‘SBU-related depot’ in Kharkiv. Eleven Tu-95 bombers from Olenya released a total of 29 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles: as these reached the Ukrainian capital (after flying around it, to attack from the West), they added one North-Korean-made KN-23, and one Kinzhal. Ukrainians claimed all 31 missiles as shot down, but there was lots of damage caused by falling wreckage (including numerous warheads, of course).
Then, early on 22 March, the Russians launched an even bigger strike. According to the official Kyiv and unofficial Russian sources, the complete statistics was something like:
- 13 Tu-95 bombers (take-offs from Olenya starting at 01.12hrs; missiles released already at 03.30hrs, from the Volgograd region)
- 4 Tu-22M-3 bombers (take-offs from Mozdok at 04.18hrs)
- 10 MiG-31Ks (the Russians say that 7 have released a total of 7 Kinzhals)
This time, they have targeted the Ukrainian energy-supply system, plus (Keystone Cops in Moscow), ‘railway junctions, arsenals, bases, and foreign mercenaires’. The strike has caused power outages in at least 15 cities and towns. According to official Kyiv,
- Shahed: 63 launched, 55 shot down (8 came through)
- Iskander-M: 12 launched (all 12 came through)
- Kh-101/555: 40 launched, 35 shot down (i.e. 5 came through)
- Kh-22: 5 launched (5 came through)
- Kinzhal: 5 launched (all 5 came through)
- Kh-59M: 2 launched, 2 shot down
- S-300/400: 22 launched (all 22 came through, 18 of these in the Kharkiv area alone).
Heaviest hit were Kharkiv (by S-300/400s; the city was left without electricity), Dnipro (hit by a combination of Kinzhals, Kh-22s, S-300/400s, and Kh-101/555s), and Zaporizhzhya (city, hit by Kh-22s and S-300/400s). The major ‘coup’ of this attack was a direct hit by a Kh-555 cruise missile on the Dniprovska HPP: the HES-1 appears to have been destroyed, and the HES-2 badly damaged.
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BUDANOV’s RAIDERS (Part 2…’those on the ground’)
Belgorod… (yes, the one in Russia)…Since 12 March, the three HUR/SBU-controlled groups of Russian combatants have run a total of at least six raids. Now, some say that, contrary to their first operation of this kind, last year in (from memory) May, this time they are holding quite a sizeable area: as mentioned two days ago, this might be stretching from Popivka in the West, to Lozvaya Rudka in the West.
As far as can be assessed, there are three such Russian groups involved:
- Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL)
- Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK)
- Siberia Battalion
From what is known so far:
- 12 March: the Russian authorities have ordered a mass evacuation of all the villages from Dunayka and Spodariushino in the West, via Grayvoron, Gorkovskiy, to Nekhoteevka and Novaya Tavolzhanka in the East. The FRL entered Tetkino, and blew up the local ammunition dump.
- On the same day, the HUR/SBU-controlled Russians raided and ‘liberated’ Lozovaya Rudka. Is a hamlet directly on the border, east of Gorkovskiy. In the East, they also attacked Novaya Tavolzhanka. Situation there is unclear ever since.
- 13 March: HUR/SBU-controlled Russians attacked in direction of Popivka, the Russians blew up a bridge and lost a BMP-3. In the centre, they attacked Nekhoteevka, but seem to have lost at least one tank to a mine. Guess, this attack was spoiled and the raiders had to get back to Ukraine. Similar seem to have happened in the Solntsevka area, some 10km further east.
- 14 March: HUR/SBU-controlled Russians launched what appears to be their main raid: attacked and ‘liberated’ Kozinka, might have reached Glotovo and approached Grayvoron from two sides. The fighting there went on for at least 2-3 days longer. Not sure what’s up there the last two days.
- 16 March: HUR/SBU-controlled Russians attacked Gorkovskiy and claimed it for ‘liberated’, while the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed to have shot down an ‘Ukrainian Black Hawk’ helicopter of US-origin… which then turned out to have been an Ukrainian Mi-24.
- The whole time, HUR/SBU are targeting different objects in the Belgorod (city).
What’s interesting is that this time the HUR/SBU-controlled Russians have at least tried to hold some of places in question, not just to raid them.
The Russian Armed Forces (VSRF) have some 17,500 troops in Belgorod Oblast, which is too little. Unsurprisingly, they’re reacting with lots of air strikes and whatever artillery is on hand. Their counterattack is led by the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade, reinforced by the Rosgvardia.
That said, gauging by this video… well, if this was the 2nd Spetsnaz… hm..
I think that this lack of troops to properly cover the entire border is one of reasons why Pudding/Shoygu have announced another mobilisation. Of course, some are promptly explaining how these new troops are going to be used for a new offensive on Kharkiv, but: as first, it’s going to take some 3-4 months for at least some 100,000 of them to get recruited, equipped, organised, and get some training. As second, even 100,000 is too little for assaulting Kharkiv (regardless how unpleasant such a big number sounds).
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BATTLE OF DONBASS
As mentioned yesterday, since Monday (18 March), the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is back ‘in full swing’.
Bilohorivka… On Monday, the Russians launched a mass ‘motorised’ attack, using ´Chinese-made DesertCross ATVs… scores were hit by FPV-drones of the 81st Airborne and the 100th TDF, but they kept on attacking for another two days: AFAIK, without durable success.
Bakhmut… that is: Bohdanivka and Ivanivske… on Tuesdy, the VSRF has managed to capture a hill north of Bohdanivka, dominating both that village and Ivanivske.
Klishchivka… the 92nd Assault also cuddled plentiful of the Russians, completely spoiling their attack north of Klishchivka again. However, south of the village, the Russians have crossed the railway and gained some ground.
Berdychi… the Russians continued attacking into the village, the last four days. I’ve seen so many videos released by the 47th Mech, and showing knocked out Russian BMP-3s, MT-LBs and other stuff, the last few days, that it cannot but be described as a ‘massacre’. Still, the Russians are well inside the village (and the 47th lost another M2/M3 Bradley).
Orlivka… as mentioned earlier, was – officially – captured by the VSRF.
Tonenke….the Russians are trying to continue their advance from this village further north-west, but the 53rd Mech seems to be well-supported by FPV-drones, and thus even the Russian infantry is meanwhile leaving behind a trail of bodies…
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SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA
Robotyne… the last four days, the Russians were back to ‘attacking like mad’ both in Robotyne and north-west of Verbove. They claim to have reached the centre of Robotyne (though, apparently, on basis of videos from October 2023), while Ukrainians admit that north-west of Verbove the III ‘Bulava’ Battalion/Presidential Guards Brigade was, after three days of ‘crazy’ attacks, forced to withdraw some 200-300 metres – and that regardless how many Russians and their vehicles it has hit.
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….overall: a long day in a long week… and yet: just another day in a long war…
Regarding your analysis the crux of it seems to be that Russian attacks are slowly and expensively creeping forward. Their airforce is not stopped in its attacks and the ground troops are dying but grinding on. One can of course hope that this type of attacks becomes so expensive that the troops break, but I don’t really believe so. Breaking will first happen when they stop advancing. And while this hurts Russia in decades to come that doesn’t stop Putin. So something has to be done to stop Russian progress. Probably means some change in tactics.
According to Norwegian news sources Peskov used the Word « War » to describe the situation in Ukraine. A war with the west. The analysis given for the reason of this language shift was (surprise surprise) as a preparation for a general mobilization. Now you write « while I’m joining the army of those wondering if this is another of FSB’s false flag operations: a ‘terrorist attack in Moscow’ would ‘automatically authorise’ Pudding to do whatever he wants to do… (including mobilising youngsters Muscovites). ». Damn « lucky » with that attack Putin? I don’t know whether he simply allowed it to happen or orchestrated it. But the attack suited him well, and he will use it.