My thoughts exactly. Wagner's logistics are run by the MoD correct? OK fighting Rosgvardia (with circa 50,000 veteran troops) is hardly Operation Barbarossa, but someone could be shutting off supplies of ammo and fuel if they wished.
And to your question, Surovikin hasn't said anything backing Shoigu has he? It's the old Good Tsar Bad Boyars routine. Well Nicholas II was a good tsar until he wasn't good enough to keep around.
Wagner was always talked about in Western MSM prior to Ukraine as "an arm of the FSB." Is it still an arm of the FSB and does that mean there's an FSB faction in play..
I don't really buy this story about a motley crew of "vor v zakone" and their Pirate Captain who got handed the dirty jobs turning Rambo and making a credible attempt at taking over the country. I mean culturally that is correct, but politically there's more nuance surely
It IS a feudal (attempted) coup by feudal mercenaries within a feudal state. It's like something out of the Thirty Years War, but without the theological subtleties. (Still, the politics of it may be Byzantine...)
Prigozhin fighting for Russia since the beginning of the war, and now a Prigozhin coup just as the Ukrainian army is facing problems in their counterattack, should we really take this event seriously as a turning point in this unjust war against Ukraine?
Wagner/Prigozhin has secured Rostov, sure, and the HQ of the OSK South, but that's about that....at least for the time being: this all could also be some sort of a 'Maskirovka', or Prigozhin simply losing nerves.
This is yet another hit on the troops' morale. Prigozhin tells the truth about the Russian losses, and the soldiers at the front line know that as a first-hand experience.
BTW, there is info that Russians finally blocked access to Google News.
It could have been maskirovka (kind of like pro wrestling's simulated "arguments" designed to engross the fans, or in this case the deluded Russian TV viewers, into the story) . But only up to the point where Prigozhin crossed the rubicon & alleged that Shoigu lied the country into war. That's a morale hit that's objectively bad for the Russian effort. Now it's the old carry-on of the good tsar and the bad boyars until the "good tsar" just looks to weak to matter.
Wagner is reasonable - they fight if they are told to fight, but the Prigozhin's rhetoric for the last half a year is that "this war makes no sense" and "there are no Nazis in Ukraine".
Far as I see it, mercenaries usually fight for money (and perhaps fame/infamy, but money first). If (however unlikely) Wagner takes permanent control over any important parts of what is now Russia, would they have any more reason to keep squandering their resources (and lives) for a war grounded on someone else's schitzophrenic visions about history and world domination ambitions? If anything, Prigozhin looks more "negotiable" than anyone else in charge of anything there (despite also looking like a complete psychopath). Because he doesn't seem to have any "ideology" to hold him back.
Prigozhiin, like Stalin, seems a rational psychopath. Putin was formerly a rational psychopath until 24/2/22. Scapegoating Shoigu won't restore Putin's image. Interesting dimension in this is that Prigozhin is the only ethnic Russian in the tiny inner circle "Politburo" apart from the dopey drunk Surovikin. Shoigu a Tuvan and Kadyrov a Chechen, these are the henchmen Putin thought wouldn't threaten him.. The Goebbels Solovyov's been sounding pretty non-committal ("a house divided against itself will not stand." Does not imply who runs the house.)
Since JD was trying to hypothesize on the effect of Prigozhin's ethnicity in internal Russian politics, it is rather important - in that context - whether or not Prigozhin is indeed "ethnic Russian." (To further clarify, Shoigu himself is half-Russian as well.)
But Prigozhin is not an anonymous Internet commenter. And frankly, knowing quite a large number of ex-Soviet Jews, looking at him, I don't doubt it.
Well, obviously, Prigozhin only cares about lives of his soldiers as long as they remain his soldiers: they are a resource (a valuable one). But defectors and casualties are only valid as a "media resource" (which he shamelessly used on some occasions). Similarly, he won't care about lives of anyone else if they don't extend his profits. For Russia, Prigozhin as a hypothetical "supreme ruler" is definitely a pure nightmare. For everyone outside? Not so much anymore. Well, no one wants nukes in the hands of a psycho, but as long as this psycho can be "bought", it might not be that bad, right?
Well, because he owns a mercenary group. He's an ex-convict businessman used to making profits on war. This war is becoming unprofitable. If, however, he gets Russia (even a "small" part of it), he'll have his hands (and purse) full for quite a while without any need to also fight a second front in an outside war that, right now, cannot be won or at least fought in a profitable way. And "Russian patriots" like Girkin are already quick to condemn him as a traitor - they dislike Shoigu just as much, but they are also strongly against any kind of civil war / "smuta" in Russia at this point.
Prigozhin was in a corner. He got himself into precisely the same position as Ernst Roehm was before Hitler prohibited the SA at the behest of the other "services". He's only a patriot insofar as he gets to consolidate his power in the state. But he's a true patriot in that he genuinely believes those who've held power have been incompetent (and he's right.), and that he ought to be doing their job better (highly doubtful.)
Nb, the SA analogy shows why the Z-ideology was such a double edged swrord for Pudding. Politics in Russia until the war was a melange of postmodern gibberish. Now there's actual militarist nationalism, surprise surprise, a militarist nationalist leadership challenge came up...
- If Prigo really started this on a whim because of an assassination attempt, then it will be more difficult for him to achieve his goals, but not entirely impossible. I assume that if he had any plan to oust the keystone cops, he had looked for allies in the military as well.
- What contradicts to the "unplanned, sudden move" is the timing. Friday night when everybody - including the security and fsb forces - is slam dunk drunk.
- Prigo may try to repeat Napoleon's return at Grenoble - though it is more likely that if this happens, those are exactly the troops he wanted and expected to come against him => look how the real soldiers of Russia turn away from the corrupt MoD! Hail Tzar Putin! I doubt he would want to conquer Moscow on his own.
- Putin's speech this morning is the textbook example of the desperate balancing. No matter whih side will win, the speech can be explained that he supported just that side and condemned the other.
- No matter which side will win, Putin's internal power will be weakened. First, because he instilled the power into both sides, he is responsible for them. Second, there will be no balance against the winner, so he has less maneuvering field. Third, even though it's both parties' interest to keep him in power NOW, neither of them will forget that he didn't supported them and only them. Either his health will quickly deteriorate or (in his best scenario) he will realize "on his own" that leading the country is too tiring and appoint his successor for the next year elections.
- The big question is how long this fight will last, how quickly the winner be revealed? For the UAF the longer the better. How much they can exploit the unaviodable uncertainity in the VSRF ranks, we will see.
On timing, the stalling ZSU counteroffensive may have come as an upset to Prigo's calculations.
Shoigu was immensely stupid to give Prigo a hard deadline for dissolving Wagner rather than doing a proper Kristallnacht purge. In general Shoigu does not look like the Darwinian top dog and Putin looks fatally weakened for relying on such a yes-man. It's always a possibility Prigo has been coordinating with the Ukrainians.
PMCs are not impacted by the military contracts. That's aimed at the loosely organized militias of ethnic Russians and international volunteers in Donbass. Those units were all formally subordinated to the MoD and all participants had to sign formal military contracts if they wanted to continue playing.
Certainly lots of stuff happening, did Lukaschenko take a holiday, or is he running from Belarus, that'll be interesting to see what happens there. Progozhin seems to have some support there, see how long it lasts. Then perhaps there will be a purge in the RUAF officer corps. And Putin has painted himself into a corner. Hurry up and wait.
Sick or wait8ng it out ?
Highly unlikely that Prigo is going at this alone. Who would be his most likely allies up top?
My thoughts exactly. Wagner's logistics are run by the MoD correct? OK fighting Rosgvardia (with circa 50,000 veteran troops) is hardly Operation Barbarossa, but someone could be shutting off supplies of ammo and fuel if they wished.
And to your question, Surovikin hasn't said anything backing Shoigu has he? It's the old Good Tsar Bad Boyars routine. Well Nicholas II was a good tsar until he wasn't good enough to keep around.
Could become Afghanistan 2.0 because you have someone motivated fighting a highly corrupt regime, which everybody is aware of.
Excellent points.
Wagner was always talked about in Western MSM prior to Ukraine as "an arm of the FSB." Is it still an arm of the FSB and does that mean there's an FSB faction in play..
I don't really buy this story about a motley crew of "vor v zakone" and their Pirate Captain who got handed the dirty jobs turning Rambo and making a credible attempt at taking over the country. I mean culturally that is correct, but politically there's more nuance surely
It IS a feudal (attempted) coup by feudal mercenaries within a feudal state. It's like something out of the Thirty Years War, but without the theological subtleties. (Still, the politics of it may be Byzantine...)
"And so it begins."
Thanks for the update Tom.
Thanks for Clarification. :)
Ruzzia is working on themselves. Good news.
Two EW helicopters. down... plus other two in Bryansk earlier this year... Not that many left.
6-7 left....
A few would not be operational - as it usually happen...
Good. The lesser - the better.
Prigozhin fighting for Russia since the beginning of the war, and now a Prigozhin coup just as the Ukrainian army is facing problems in their counterattack, should we really take this event seriously as a turning point in this unjust war against Ukraine?
Indeed, I'm not 'buying' this as an 'end of war'.
Wagner/Prigozhin has secured Rostov, sure, and the HQ of the OSK South, but that's about that....at least for the time being: this all could also be some sort of a 'Maskirovka', or Prigozhin simply losing nerves.
Well, Russia pictures itself as the Third Rome. What is more to add...
This is yet another hit on the troops' morale. Prigozhin tells the truth about the Russian losses, and the soldiers at the front line know that as a first-hand experience.
BTW, there is info that Russians finally blocked access to Google News.
It could have been maskirovka (kind of like pro wrestling's simulated "arguments" designed to engross the fans, or in this case the deluded Russian TV viewers, into the story) . But only up to the point where Prigozhin crossed the rubicon & alleged that Shoigu lied the country into war. That's a morale hit that's objectively bad for the Russian effort. Now it's the old carry-on of the good tsar and the bad boyars until the "good tsar" just looks to weak to matter.
Yes. By now it's clear that, yes, this is more than 'Maskirovka'.
That is; there was a 'Maskirovka' - by Prigozhin, and until this morning.
Loojs like its better for Ukraine if Shoygu win over wagner.
Because wagner is much harder enemy of ukraine
Wagner is reasonable - they fight if they are told to fight, but the Prigozhin's rhetoric for the last half a year is that "this war makes no sense" and "there are no Nazis in Ukraine".
He is just lie less. He openly says that Ukraine should be defeated.
Official Russia ties to find stupid excuses like "nazi".
But it makes wagner even worse enemy, they are moreeffective and less lie
They look negotiable
Far as I see it, mercenaries usually fight for money (and perhaps fame/infamy, but money first). If (however unlikely) Wagner takes permanent control over any important parts of what is now Russia, would they have any more reason to keep squandering their resources (and lives) for a war grounded on someone else's schitzophrenic visions about history and world domination ambitions? If anything, Prigozhin looks more "negotiable" than anyone else in charge of anything there (despite also looking like a complete psychopath). Because he doesn't seem to have any "ideology" to hold him back.
Wagner killed his own troops in a horrible way. Their system is much more totalitarian, based on fear. He is closer to Stalin I think
Prigozhiin, like Stalin, seems a rational psychopath. Putin was formerly a rational psychopath until 24/2/22. Scapegoating Shoigu won't restore Putin's image. Interesting dimension in this is that Prigozhin is the only ethnic Russian in the tiny inner circle "Politburo" apart from the dopey drunk Surovikin. Shoigu a Tuvan and Kadyrov a Chechen, these are the henchmen Putin thought wouldn't threaten him.. The Goebbels Solovyov's been sounding pretty non-committal ("a house divided against itself will not stand." Does not imply who runs the house.)
Prigozhin is half-Jewish, which is a significant wrinkle in the context of Russian culture.
(Since you mentioned him, Solovyov is a full Jew.)
I dont think nationality is important in politic.
And how can you know his nationality? Its only him who told what is convenient for him.
I can call myself half german, american, polish or even find some mongolian great-grand someone. No way to verify it.
Since JD was trying to hypothesize on the effect of Prigozhin's ethnicity in internal Russian politics, it is rather important - in that context - whether or not Prigozhin is indeed "ethnic Russian." (To further clarify, Shoigu himself is half-Russian as well.)
But Prigozhin is not an anonymous Internet commenter. And frankly, knowing quite a large number of ex-Soviet Jews, looking at him, I don't doubt it.
Well, obviously, Prigozhin only cares about lives of his soldiers as long as they remain his soldiers: they are a resource (a valuable one). But defectors and casualties are only valid as a "media resource" (which he shamelessly used on some occasions). Similarly, he won't care about lives of anyone else if they don't extend his profits. For Russia, Prigozhin as a hypothetical "supreme ruler" is definitely a pure nightmare. For everyone outside? Not so much anymore. Well, no one wants nukes in the hands of a psycho, but as long as this psycho can be "bought", it might not be that bad, right?
Why do you deside he can be bought?
I think he is a russian patriot, like Girkin. And the more patriot you are, the more you hate west and ukraine. They say Putin is not patriot enough
Well, because he owns a mercenary group. He's an ex-convict businessman used to making profits on war. This war is becoming unprofitable. If, however, he gets Russia (even a "small" part of it), he'll have his hands (and purse) full for quite a while without any need to also fight a second front in an outside war that, right now, cannot be won or at least fought in a profitable way. And "Russian patriots" like Girkin are already quick to condemn him as a traitor - they dislike Shoigu just as much, but they are also strongly against any kind of civil war / "smuta" in Russia at this point.
Prigozhin was in a corner. He got himself into precisely the same position as Ernst Roehm was before Hitler prohibited the SA at the behest of the other "services". He's only a patriot insofar as he gets to consolidate his power in the state. But he's a true patriot in that he genuinely believes those who've held power have been incompetent (and he's right.), and that he ought to be doing their job better (highly doubtful.)
Nb, the SA analogy shows why the Z-ideology was such a double edged swrord for Pudding. Politics in Russia until the war was a melange of postmodern gibberish. Now there's actual militarist nationalism, surprise surprise, a militarist nationalist leadership challenge came up...
https://img2.joyreactor.cc/pics/post/%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%8B-%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%BD-%D0%A5%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%28Wh-40000%29-8002161.jpeg
My take from my Mk.I. crystall ball:
- If Prigo really started this on a whim because of an assassination attempt, then it will be more difficult for him to achieve his goals, but not entirely impossible. I assume that if he had any plan to oust the keystone cops, he had looked for allies in the military as well.
- What contradicts to the "unplanned, sudden move" is the timing. Friday night when everybody - including the security and fsb forces - is slam dunk drunk.
- Prigo may try to repeat Napoleon's return at Grenoble - though it is more likely that if this happens, those are exactly the troops he wanted and expected to come against him => look how the real soldiers of Russia turn away from the corrupt MoD! Hail Tzar Putin! I doubt he would want to conquer Moscow on his own.
- Putin's speech this morning is the textbook example of the desperate balancing. No matter whih side will win, the speech can be explained that he supported just that side and condemned the other.
- No matter which side will win, Putin's internal power will be weakened. First, because he instilled the power into both sides, he is responsible for them. Second, there will be no balance against the winner, so he has less maneuvering field. Third, even though it's both parties' interest to keep him in power NOW, neither of them will forget that he didn't supported them and only them. Either his health will quickly deteriorate or (in his best scenario) he will realize "on his own" that leading the country is too tiring and appoint his successor for the next year elections.
- The big question is how long this fight will last, how quickly the winner be revealed? For the UAF the longer the better. How much they can exploit the unaviodable uncertainity in the VSRF ranks, we will see.
On timing, the stalling ZSU counteroffensive may have come as an upset to Prigo's calculations.
Shoigu was immensely stupid to give Prigo a hard deadline for dissolving Wagner rather than doing a proper Kristallnacht purge. In general Shoigu does not look like the Darwinian top dog and Putin looks fatally weakened for relying on such a yes-man. It's always a possibility Prigo has been coordinating with the Ukrainians.
PMCs are not impacted by the military contracts. That's aimed at the loosely organized militias of ethnic Russians and international volunteers in Donbass. Those units were all formally subordinated to the MoD and all participants had to sign formal military contracts if they wanted to continue playing.
They are impacted, your statement was based on outdated information.
Puddings silence is interesting. Id expect him to be on the TV calling all loyal Russians to arms or some other rubbish.
Good news for Ukraine! Let them fight or kill each other or better let Russia collapse in the civil war.
Now this - hopefully - be spectacular. Only one van remain!
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672445879465431044
Certainly lots of stuff happening, did Lukaschenko take a holiday, or is he running from Belarus, that'll be interesting to see what happens there. Progozhin seems to have some support there, see how long it lasts. Then perhaps there will be a purge in the RUAF officer corps. And Putin has painted himself into a corner. Hurry up and wait.
Great work, Tom, putting some order in the barrage de news, fakes and outright BS coming from Russia.
End as it comes, Prigozhin have started a new chapter on the Aggression against Ukraine.