Ukraine War, 24 June 2023: Prigozhin’s Coup
Hello everybody!
Once again, there’s a situation in Ukraine and Russia, where one does not know where to look as first. Especially in Russia. Well, let’s try to start with Russia…
Following days-long disputes between the chief of the Wagner PMC, and the chief Keystone Cop in Moscow, Shoygu (caused by Shoygu ordering Wagner to subject itself to the full control of the Russian Ministry of Defence; indeed, to – de-facto – dissolve and all its troops to sign a contract with the MoD), there were armed clashes between the VSRF and Wagner, yesterday evening. Where, and how exactly: that’s still unclear. To make sure: got no contacts at the points in question, so can’t say: can only offer a summary of related developments. And, mind that most of the following is actually coming from within Putin’s PRBS-machinery: i.e. sources (including Prigozhin) lying all the time. Except for private contacts, which have so far kept silent, there are no ‘independent’ sources anywhere from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok…
To make sure: I do know that over the last week, there were multiple attempts to mediate between Prigozhin and Shoygu. Prigozhin was invited to ‘come and talk’. He - flatly - refused to go anywhere where he’s not protected by his own combatants, though. Indeed, he ‘disappeared’, only to re-appear this morning…. Correspondingly, any news about Prigozhin’s presence in St. Petersburg….ho-hum…
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Apparently, it began with a VSRF rocket strike on one of Wagner positions, killing ‘many of (Wagner) guys’, yesterday.
Why such an action?
No clue. Perhaps Shoygu and/or Gerasimov learned about Prigozhin’s whereabouts and tried to ‘provide him with a quick death of a hero’….?
Alternatively, though as likely, this was just another of Prigozhin’s scams: after all, his combatants are said to have started sending ‘farewell’ messages to their families already 24 hours before the events of the last night. As of this morning, they began spreading social media messages about ‘Russia now about to get a new president’, too.
After this ‘attack’ (true or fake), Prigozhin then held a ‘council of Wagner commanders, who have decided to ‘deal with the military leadership of Russia’, and ‘promised to destroy everyone who appears in their way’.
Emphasising that his targets are Shoygu and Gerasimov, Prigozin announced: ‘Now Shoygu will not get away with just a resignation. But he could be recording TikToks with his son-in-law in retirement in the UAE….’
Around 22.55hrs, Wagner called on Rosgvardia to join him: ‘Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice’. Part of Rosgvardia appears to have joined him (or at least Viktor Zolotov has a pact with Prigozhin), but many of top VSRF commanders didn’t. For example, General Surovikin attempted to ‘mediate online’, calling Wagner to ‘obey the Supreme Commander’. Few other top Russian commanders have followed in fashion. For example Vladimir Alekseyev….
Mind: Rosgvardia is, effectively, responsible to Pudding only… So, this is a direct challenge for Pudding.
Few minutes later, Prigozhin announced that Gerasimov ordered air strikes on Wagner columns as they advance on Rostov, but, ‘pilots refused to obey criminal orders’. He followed with announcement that Shoygu and Gerasimov have ‘destroyed about 100,000 Russian soldiers’ during the invasion of Ukraine, and that his troops have shot down a Russian (air force) helicopter after it ‘opened fire on civilians’ (as usually, he provided no evidence for either).
One way or the other, security services in Moscow were then put on alert, troops deployed on the streets to protect government buildings – especially Kremlin, State Duma, and the Federation Council. While Prigozhin’s account on v-kontakte was suspended, the FSB began issuing calls Wagner fighters not to make mistakes, and to stop any forceful actions against the Russian people. Moreover, the FSB announced that, ‘Prigozhin’s statements and actions amount to calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and are a “stab in the back” for Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces’.
Moreover, the Keystone Cops in Moscow announced that, ‘According to the spokesman of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, received a report from the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation, Igor Krasnov, about the initiation of criminal proceedings against the head of the PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in connection with the attempt to organize an armed uprising.’
After this, Prigozhin moved several of his assault groups into motion. One column (7th Assault Group, CO Fedor Leschuk) went for Novocherkassk, north-east of Rostov-na-Donu. This is where there is a major underground command facility of the OSK South - the main command hub for Russian operations against Ukraine.
Another column (1st Assault Group, CO Alexander Kuznetsov) went into Rostov and the ‘regular’ headquarters of the OSK South. RUMINT has it that Gerasimov was in the city at the time, but evaded arrest by Wagner, and went hiding…
Yet other column (reportedly: 400 vehicle) should have secured the Millerovo Air Base, before moving in direction of Moscow. While another Wagner column (including tanks and Pantsyrs) assaulted Voronezh, including the huge Buturlinovka AB. They shot down this An-24 (reportedly) ‘full of troops’ in the process:
If so, this sounds like a well-prepared coup, not just a ‘spontaneous reaction’…
According to Prigozhin, there was fighting as multiple assault groups of the Wagner PMC entered Rostov-na-Donu: for example, one fire-fight is said to have occurred in the Kozachi Tabory area, north of the city along the M4 highway, as a Wagner column moved out of Rostov-na-Donu in direction of Moscow and run into a Rosgvardia unit.
Meanwhile, early this morning, the Wagner troops have surrounded the HQ OSK South, in Rostov-na-Donu, while Rostov’s governor called locals to avoid the city centre, and the governor of Lipetsk region closed the M4 highway to Moscow.
About one hour ago (around 06.00hrs local time) Prigozhin appeared at the HQ OSK South, and announced he’s ‘negotiating’ with the Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. In the course of that video, he explained that his forces have shot down VKS helicopters ‘shooting at civilians’ (indeed, that ‘wrecked a bus full of civilians’)… He clearly states he’s not interfering with the OSK South’s conduct of operations against Ukraine, but demands to talk ‘Chief of Staff’ (Gerasimov), and accuses Yevkurov of pushing troops into death, without ammunition and without plan. He’s claiming, ‘we’re saving Russia’.
Subsequently, sources in the Russian social media ‘confirmed’ that Wagner PMC shot down three VKS helicopters in the Rostov area, including:
2x Mi-8MTRP-1 electronic warfare helicopters (the VKS has less than a dozen of these)
1 Mi-35 attack helicopter.
Crews of the first two should have survived, but the fate of the third is currently unknown.
BTW, Wagner-operated main battle tanks are all wearing red, makeshift markings, like this one, photographed this morning in Rostov:
Pay attention at the cover of the gun tube…
The RT is now airing a ‘warning’ from the Keystone Cops in Moscow that Wagner fighters are ‘taking part in an armed coup’…
Prigozhin’s statement recorded this morning in Rostov. Essentially, he’s announcing that Russia continues fighting Ukraine, that Wagner did not stop fighting Ukraine, and that this is not about toppling Putin, but about ‘truth’ - which he’s listing, too.
In other, though still-related news from this morning: except for the city of Rostov-na-Donu and the HQ South OSK in Novocherkassk, Wagner PMC has brought the local air base under its control, ‘to stop air strikes’ on its own columns.
RUMINT has it, Wagner brought the giant Taganrog AB under its control, 100km west of Rostov, under its control, and to be advancing on Krasnodar (south of Rostov).
Furthermore, it should have brought Voronezh under its control: the city is half-way from Rostov to Moscow, and this Wagner PMC column is said to be moving from there in direction of Moscow, along the M4 highway….while another is said to be underway from Voronezh to Belgorod… Several Russian ‘military bloggers’ are meanwhile reporting heavy air strikes on the Wagner column moving on Moscow along the M4.
On the frontlines, the entire 22nd Spetsaz Brigade (deployed in the Orikhiv area) is said to have ‘switched’ to Prigozhin’s side. Several OMON units are said to have sided with Prigozhin’s Wagner, too.
Many say, because the VSRF has sent 90% of its troops to Ukrain, Putin is ‘defenceless’. Far from that, in Moscow, he has the 15,000-strong Derzhinsky Spetsnaz Division of the Rosgvardia, plus at least 4,000 troops of the SSO-forces. The latter are known to have already secured all of major military installations, including the MOD HQ in Frunzenskaya. Moreover, he’s still got a lots of VKS deployed on air bases west and south of the city…
But, with this, I’m moving into ‘rumors’.
Notably: pay attention at nobody there intending to stop fighting Ukraine, nor into at least preventing the VSRF and VKS from fighting Ukraine. Ukraine remains Prigozhin’s target, just like that of Pudding and the Keystone Cops in Moscow. This entire affair is about Prigozhin ‘demanding’ the Keystone Cops in Moscow to stop acting like Keystone Cops… if it’s not a major ‘Maskirovka’…
Thus, please remain clam and sober: do not jump to any kind of conclusions.
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That much is ‘known’ by now. Obviously, I’ll try to continue monitoring the developments throughout the day (thus, please, ‘refresh’ your browser, time and again), but doing that is not going to be easy. Foremost: I am not into ‘news’, just an analyst.
Moreover, a plea for everybody: PLEASE, do not ask me for predictions. Developments of this kind are hard to follow, even harder to assess, and their outcome is impossible to predict.
….to be continued….
Ruzzia is working on themselves. Good news.
Two EW helicopters. down... plus other two in Bryansk earlier this year... Not that many left.
My take from my Mk.I. crystall ball:
- If Prigo really started this on a whim because of an assassination attempt, then it will be more difficult for him to achieve his goals, but not entirely impossible. I assume that if he had any plan to oust the keystone cops, he had looked for allies in the military as well.
- What contradicts to the "unplanned, sudden move" is the timing. Friday night when everybody - including the security and fsb forces - is slam dunk drunk.
- Prigo may try to repeat Napoleon's return at Grenoble - though it is more likely that if this happens, those are exactly the troops he wanted and expected to come against him => look how the real soldiers of Russia turn away from the corrupt MoD! Hail Tzar Putin! I doubt he would want to conquer Moscow on his own.
- Putin's speech this morning is the textbook example of the desperate balancing. No matter whih side will win, the speech can be explained that he supported just that side and condemned the other.
- No matter which side will win, Putin's internal power will be weakened. First, because he instilled the power into both sides, he is responsible for them. Second, there will be no balance against the winner, so he has less maneuvering field. Third, even though it's both parties' interest to keep him in power NOW, neither of them will forget that he didn't supported them and only them. Either his health will quickly deteriorate or (in his best scenario) he will realize "on his own" that leading the country is too tiring and appoint his successor for the next year elections.
- The big question is how long this fight will last, how quickly the winner be revealed? For the UAF the longer the better. How much they can exploit the unaviodable uncertainity in the VSRF ranks, we will see.