Hello everybody! Because I’m short on time today, a very brief one for this morning, entirely focusing on the Avdiivka sector. Indeed: just on the Ocheretyne area. As more info is becoming available almost by hour, few things have cleared by now. Yes, there was a rotation of units, in the sense of, back on 19-20 April, the 47
Could the recent event in eastern Chasiv Yar - the Russian suddenly appearing in the town via an unmined road - have had a similar cause, i.e. a general lack of mines? Or was that a simple error on the defenders' side?
Also, as unpleasant as the fall of Ocheretyne is, aren't the Russians currenly inside the bigger defensive belt set up in front of Donetsk after 2014? Even if they manage to roll up the entire line on the Durna, how much valuable ground could they take before they run into fortifications again?
Not much. Was looking at the topography - Ukraine can pull back behind the Vovcha and be sitting on higher ground all the way from Ocheretyne down to Kurakhove. The real danger is the orcs attacking north towards Kostiantynivka in a few weeks in conjunction with a pincer coming through Chasiv Yar. Less room to give ground on the northern flank.
On the southern edge, though, I'd be trading space and blood for time, not bothering to counterattack. Let the orcs try to supply their new forward positions under constant drone attack
Crushes a person, are Russian soldiers forced to fight? Why aren’t other countries helping? This really gets me in the stomach and heart. Yet in Canada people are losing their minds over our prime minister. 🤦♀️
I really hate to be right about such things, I was expecting such thing to happen even earlier.
Lack of resources, less experience soldiers and not fully prepared positions was recipe for problems.
Sadly USA was asleep for more than 6 mounts, expecting the Russians to defeat themselves and ask for piece negotiation, but instead they escalated. Boomer who would have guessed.
USA was not asleep, on the contrary it was very busy conspiring on both sides and making a show for everybody else. A bespectacled nobody from nowhere had the future of the millions in his hands.
This was bound to happen sooner or later, considering the lack of resources. Fortunately the clock is now ticking for the situation to reverse.
While the 60B package got delayed it did not get reduced. And yes, most of it is just Pentagon creative accounting, but at the end of the day - Ukraine is getting 12 monts worth of assistance within a 6 months timeframe. This is bound to make a difference. And now it's actually confirmed-confirmed, not the fake expectations from before. EU's help should also gradually increase as the year progresses.
So even if Russia manages to expand this breakthrough they don't have the time to get very far before the balances shifts in the other direction with fresh supplies getting to the front.
Even if the West provides half a dozen Patriot units, these are but an ingredient in an air defense umbrella - you need a large amount of ingredients to make a soup, and lacking a single ingredient may lead to disastrous consequences (like, losing a Patriot battery).
You need equipment and personnel to protect the batteries, which cannot be static (because ballistic missiles will soon go flying their way), and you need EW systems and short- and medium-range systems to protect against drones, a group of troops to guard against infiltration and saboteurs, etc.
Even if Ukraine tomorrow declares an F-16 unit operational, that doesn't guarantee that they'll be able to shoot down the Russian Sukhois (and the amount of F-16s is still too small for packing a punch). So, maybe half a dozen roaming Patriot units could provide coverage against Sukhois (I mean 1-2 launchers at most per roaming battery)
And lots of MANPADS near the front line - having these Su-25 flying unmolested irks me
I'm not saying this will win the war but I guess the army would rather have tens of billions worth of ammo and equipment rather than not have it. And if it makes zero difference? That's basically what Russia has been trying to convince everyone all along, convincing us in that is their main win strategy.
Everyone on this forum would prefer it happens faster, more reliably and in bigger quantities but at the end of the day everyone plays with the cards they're given.
Russia was not a problem before the West sponsored a coup in 2014 and the Ukrainian nationalists aggressively tried to join NATO.
This is a conflict between the US and Russia and Ukrainian politicians allowed that conflict to be fought on Ukrainian territory. They failed their people, yet I don't see Kuleba's or Poroshenko's sons fighting on the front.
The West was always ruled by self interest and greed. The problem is they want to control all. That is why they came into conflict with other powers like Germany, Japan, Russia, China. Hence the WW1, WW2 and maybe WW3 soon.
Boris Johnson said the other day that if the West loses in Ukraine it will be the end of Western hegemony. They don't care about Ukraine. They will support it just enough to keep killing Russians but not too much so as not to provoke nuclear response.
Ukraine is also ruled by self interest. Like any other nation. What you say looks like a medieval way of thinking, in which only the powerful impose the rules and the other must obey. But history leaches us that the powerful ended up in a mess as well. Empires come and fall, the smaller nations are still there. Do not underestimate them.
Yes, the powerful rule. This is the world we are living in and have been
since the dawn of time. You are right that empires come and go but they are replaced by other empires.
Since WW2 and the fall of the British empire, the US took over that role.
Look at what Israel is doing in Gaza. Do you think it would be able to do that (a small nation as you say) if it weren't for protection and support of the powerful US ?
Here's Boris Johnson spelling it out for everyone:
In Vietnam for example, the US or France were waging a war half the planet away against people they have nothing in common with, that did not endanger their security in any meaningful way.
Russia is fighting this war to prevent Ukraine becoming a powerful NATO outpost on a very long and vulnerable part of Russia's border.
And not only Ukraine. Russia knows that if it allows a Western supported regime change followed by NATO accession in Ukraine, the same thing will happen in Belorussia, Khazakhstan, Georgia etc.
It will end up totally boxed in with NATO countries.
So IMO this is not an imperialistic war against some distant country but an existential struggle to secure one's borders against a hostile, ever expanding military alliance.
Found an account from a soldier of 115th brigade detailing problems in the unit, I think it helps explain how the breakthrough in Ocheretyine happened.
"Yes, unfortunately, this is my brigade, I did not want to say out of respect for the guys
My company was literally destroyed, we performed tasks in any conditions and no one whined, we stormed without support and with stupid command, we defended ourselves with almost no support and the same stupid command
No one prepared people for combat, everyone gave a fuck about everything, I have no complaints about the command except for the sergeant major who tried to do something and the company's deputy commander, although he does everything except his direct job
Officers are stupid and incompetent, the brigade command doesn't give a fuck about people
Yes, they do have positive aspects, but they are so few that it's not worth stuttering
But, what is offensive, this is not the worst brigade, there are much worse situations
In two months in the brigade I saw the brigadier and the commander exactly 0 times
Exactly the same number of times I saw respect for the personnel from the company commander and his deputies (except for the MPZ, but I understand that this is before the separate republic)
Discipline as a norm is absent at all, there is no backbone of the brigade, because the OS are stupidly killed"
Heart wrenching indeed. Also gives some perspective into the decision to replace Zaluzhny. It's somewhat easy to be universally beloved if letting everyone do their thing and not reacting to problems.
But really letting such things fly, like some commanders routinely loosing whole companies of troops, is inexcusable. Syrskyi has a reputation of a butcher, but seems to at least try to sack some commanders and instill some order. That decision with the 67th brigade, for example, seems long overdue. Though, truth be told, as previous commander of ground troops he isn't without fault or responsibility for precisely the same problems the command is belatedly trying to rectify now.
It sounds like the Russians found gaps/weaknesses in the Ukrainian defences and managed to use the opportunity. At least for a while. Question: can the Russians adopt to such situations in a broader sense and develop a fully mobile warfare if the situation develops that way? Such a flexibility needs an ability to adopt to a changing situation and improvise. But also logistics, transport, etc. In a wider sense, through the whole command structure.
If logistics can follow and supply fighting units in a maneuver war, the fighting can continue for enough days at peak performance (my empirical guess would be up to a month of sustained operations before the troops collapse from exhaustion).
If not, remember the expression "An army marches on its stomach"
(note that I am not a professional military/analyst, and my opinion is worth the money you paid in order to read it...)
“Liking” your updates these days feels very wrong!
Yes, I know exactly what you mean.
+1
Could the recent event in eastern Chasiv Yar - the Russian suddenly appearing in the town via an unmined road - have had a similar cause, i.e. a general lack of mines? Or was that a simple error on the defenders' side?
Also, as unpleasant as the fall of Ocheretyne is, aren't the Russians currenly inside the bigger defensive belt set up in front of Donetsk after 2014? Even if they manage to roll up the entire line on the Durna, how much valuable ground could they take before they run into fortifications again?
Not much. Was looking at the topography - Ukraine can pull back behind the Vovcha and be sitting on higher ground all the way from Ocheretyne down to Kurakhove. The real danger is the orcs attacking north towards Kostiantynivka in a few weeks in conjunction with a pincer coming through Chasiv Yar. Less room to give ground on the northern flank.
On the southern edge, though, I'd be trading space and blood for time, not bothering to counterattack. Let the orcs try to supply their new forward positions under constant drone attack
Horrible news.
Принципи управління Україною від ашкеназі ЗЄіБєні
https://zemlj.blogspot.com/2022/08/blog-post_30.html?m=1
Crushes a person, are Russian soldiers forced to fight? Why aren’t other countries helping? This really gets me in the stomach and heart. Yet in Canada people are losing their minds over our prime minister. 🤦♀️
I really hate to be right about such things, I was expecting such thing to happen even earlier.
Lack of resources, less experience soldiers and not fully prepared positions was recipe for problems.
Sadly USA was asleep for more than 6 mounts, expecting the Russians to defeat themselves and ask for piece negotiation, but instead they escalated. Boomer who would have guessed.
USA was not asleep, on the contrary it was very busy conspiring on both sides and making a show for everybody else. A bespectacled nobody from nowhere had the future of the millions in his hands.
They found gaps to move thru, but were these better trained units than the usual mobiks?
Yesno. Mobiks subordinated to better trained units.
Thank you, Tom. Your updates are the example being on the cutting edge. Hope, more people would take it.
A year from now it will be much worse. The West is giving Ukraine just enough rope to hang itself.
The US will support Ukraine until it becomes more bothersome than it is worth and then it will dump the problem onto the EU to deal with.
This was bound to happen sooner or later, considering the lack of resources. Fortunately the clock is now ticking for the situation to reverse.
While the 60B package got delayed it did not get reduced. And yes, most of it is just Pentagon creative accounting, but at the end of the day - Ukraine is getting 12 monts worth of assistance within a 6 months timeframe. This is bound to make a difference. And now it's actually confirmed-confirmed, not the fake expectations from before. EU's help should also gradually increase as the year progresses.
So even if Russia manages to expand this breakthrough they don't have the time to get very far before the balances shifts in the other direction with fresh supplies getting to the front.
There is still nothing to counter gliding bombs
Even if the West provides half a dozen Patriot units, these are but an ingredient in an air defense umbrella - you need a large amount of ingredients to make a soup, and lacking a single ingredient may lead to disastrous consequences (like, losing a Patriot battery).
You need equipment and personnel to protect the batteries, which cannot be static (because ballistic missiles will soon go flying their way), and you need EW systems and short- and medium-range systems to protect against drones, a group of troops to guard against infiltration and saboteurs, etc.
Even if Ukraine tomorrow declares an F-16 unit operational, that doesn't guarantee that they'll be able to shoot down the Russian Sukhois (and the amount of F-16s is still too small for packing a punch). So, maybe half a dozen roaming Patriot units could provide coverage against Sukhois (I mean 1-2 launchers at most per roaming battery)
And lots of MANPADS near the front line - having these Su-25 flying unmolested irks me
Yes, and it should have been done yesterday.
I'm not saying this will win the war but I guess the army would rather have tens of billions worth of ammo and equipment rather than not have it. And if it makes zero difference? That's basically what Russia has been trying to convince everyone all along, convincing us in that is their main win strategy.
Everyone on this forum would prefer it happens faster, more reliably and in bigger quantities but at the end of the day everyone plays with the cards they're given.
We al know who is to blame for such news. The West is ruled by the men who have no idea of honor.
The West is ruled by self interest. That is why the West is prosperous and free of war and Ukraine is being demolished.
Maybe the real reason is having no border with the aggressive neighbor. Before the WW1 and WW11 the West was evidently NOT ruled by self-interest.
Russia was not a problem before the West sponsored a coup in 2014 and the Ukrainian nationalists aggressively tried to join NATO.
This is a conflict between the US and Russia and Ukrainian politicians allowed that conflict to be fought on Ukrainian territory. They failed their people, yet I don't see Kuleba's or Poroshenko's sons fighting on the front.
The West was always ruled by self interest and greed. The problem is they want to control all. That is why they came into conflict with other powers like Germany, Japan, Russia, China. Hence the WW1, WW2 and maybe WW3 soon.
Boris Johnson said the other day that if the West loses in Ukraine it will be the end of Western hegemony. They don't care about Ukraine. They will support it just enough to keep killing Russians but not too much so as not to provoke nuclear response.
Your reproduction of Russian lies does not deserve the time to read them. So farewell.
Farewell dear Elena.
Ukraine is also ruled by self interest. Like any other nation. What you say looks like a medieval way of thinking, in which only the powerful impose the rules and the other must obey. But history leaches us that the powerful ended up in a mess as well. Empires come and fall, the smaller nations are still there. Do not underestimate them.
Yes, the powerful rule. This is the world we are living in and have been
since the dawn of time. You are right that empires come and go but they are replaced by other empires.
Since WW2 and the fall of the British empire, the US took over that role.
Look at what Israel is doing in Gaza. Do you think it would be able to do that (a small nation as you say) if it weren't for protection and support of the powerful US ?
Here's Boris Johnson spelling it out for everyone:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8ZmkIhs8r0
Empires lose wars, all the time:
UK - USA
France - Indochina
USA - Vietnam
USSR - Afghanistan
France - Algeria
Russia - Chechnya
Ottomans - Greece
etc
It's time Russia loses this war as well. It's a chance for them to reinvent themselves
This is different.
In Vietnam for example, the US or France were waging a war half the planet away against people they have nothing in common with, that did not endanger their security in any meaningful way.
Russia is fighting this war to prevent Ukraine becoming a powerful NATO outpost on a very long and vulnerable part of Russia's border.
And not only Ukraine. Russia knows that if it allows a Western supported regime change followed by NATO accession in Ukraine, the same thing will happen in Belorussia, Khazakhstan, Georgia etc.
It will end up totally boxed in with NATO countries.
So IMO this is not an imperialistic war against some distant country but an existential struggle to secure one's borders against a hostile, ever expanding military alliance.
Found an account from a soldier of 115th brigade detailing problems in the unit, I think it helps explain how the breakthrough in Ocheretyine happened.
(https://x.com/canisbandera/status/1783140639560855980)
Machine translated:
"Yes, unfortunately, this is my brigade, I did not want to say out of respect for the guys
My company was literally destroyed, we performed tasks in any conditions and no one whined, we stormed without support and with stupid command, we defended ourselves with almost no support and the same stupid command
No one prepared people for combat, everyone gave a fuck about everything, I have no complaints about the command except for the sergeant major who tried to do something and the company's deputy commander, although he does everything except his direct job
Officers are stupid and incompetent, the brigade command doesn't give a fuck about people
Yes, they do have positive aspects, but they are so few that it's not worth stuttering
But, what is offensive, this is not the worst brigade, there are much worse situations
In two months in the brigade I saw the brigadier and the commander exactly 0 times
Exactly the same number of times I saw respect for the personnel from the company commander and his deputies (except for the MPZ, but I understand that this is before the separate republic)
Discipline as a norm is absent at all, there is no backbone of the brigade, because the OS are stupidly killed"
Yes, have read this and several other accounts by family-members of troops serving with the 115th Mech, the last night....
....simply shattering...
Heart wrenching indeed. Also gives some perspective into the decision to replace Zaluzhny. It's somewhat easy to be universally beloved if letting everyone do their thing and not reacting to problems.
But really letting such things fly, like some commanders routinely loosing whole companies of troops, is inexcusable. Syrskyi has a reputation of a butcher, but seems to at least try to sack some commanders and instill some order. That decision with the 67th brigade, for example, seems long overdue. Though, truth be told, as previous commander of ground troops he isn't without fault or responsibility for precisely the same problems the command is belatedly trying to rectify now.
It sounds like the Russians found gaps/weaknesses in the Ukrainian defences and managed to use the opportunity. At least for a while. Question: can the Russians adopt to such situations in a broader sense and develop a fully mobile warfare if the situation develops that way? Such a flexibility needs an ability to adopt to a changing situation and improvise. But also logistics, transport, etc. In a wider sense, through the whole command structure.
Logistics is the key.
If logistics can follow and supply fighting units in a maneuver war, the fighting can continue for enough days at peak performance (my empirical guess would be up to a month of sustained operations before the troops collapse from exhaustion).
If not, remember the expression "An army marches on its stomach"
(note that I am not a professional military/analyst, and my opinion is worth the money you paid in order to read it...)
Thanks Tom