Ukraine War, 24 April 2024: Ocheretyne

Hello everybody!

Because I’m short on time today, a very brief one for this morning, entirely focusing on the Avdiivka sector. Indeed: just on the Ocheretyne area.  

As more info is becoming available almost by hour, few things have cleared by now.

Yes, there was a rotation of units, in the sense of, back on 19-20 April, the 47^th Mech being in the process of withdrawing out of the line and replaced by another unit. However, the Russian penetration of the frontline took place further north-east of that sector: essentially, one of near-constant Russian patrols (a small group of troops crawling through Ukrainian minefields by night) discovered two gaps in minefields blocking approaches to Novokalynove. One south-west of the place, along the railway berm, the other south-east of it. This is what they’ve exploited to punch through the defence line.

Why were there gaps in minefields? Because of the lack of mines along the railway berm north of Avdiivka and along a road south-east of Novokalynove. There is simply no way to mine everything. And when that happens, an opponent like the Russians is near-certain to discover this fact, rather sooner than later…

Novokalynove is defended by he 115^th Mech: a unit established in March 2022 in the Cherkasy Oblast, but poorly equipped: next to no night-vision systems, old BMP-1s and BMP-2s, old artillery pieces, and only slightly younger troops (apparently 35-45 years) etc.  

Eventually, in the night of 20 to 21 April, the Russians took the 115^th by surprise with a two-prong attack on both of its flanks. On the western side, from the Stepove area they drove along the railway berm about four kilometres to Ocheretyne, capturing the railway station and scattering rear Ukrainian units in all directions. Then they continued ‘pumping’ yet additional assault groups into the penetration, while widening it through attacks in southern direction, on Berdychi, too.

The situation reached the point where the OSG Tavriya had to rush the 47^th Mech back to the frontline: some of its Bradleys have managed to stop the Russian attempt to advance from Ocheretyne in western direction, but the mass of the brigade was deployed between Soloviove and Berdychi, along the southern side of the Russian penetration.

On the eastern side, they have managed a shallow advance into hills east of Novokalynove, before being stopped outside that village.

A map of the Ocheretyne area by DeepState,

Yesterday in the morning, and despite several counterattacks by ZSU reinforcements rushed to the scene, the Russians have captured Novobakhmutivka. Moreover, around 21.00hrs yesterday evening, they have secured all of Ocheretyne and in the last night began attacking west of that place, and from Novobakhmutivka on Soloviove. Simultaneously, they are also assaulting Berdychi from the north and east, and Novokalynove from the south and east.

Now, by day, Ukrainian FPV drones are savaging columns of their assault groups as these are moving on Ocheretyne, but, and in grand total: this is hopelessly too little for completely blocking the movement of the Russian reinforcements along the railway berm. Foremost, the ZSU currently has nothing to outmatch the Russian air strikes and continuous, heavy artillery shelling of Ukrainian positions in the areas of Novokalynove, Arkhanhelske, Sokil, Soloviove, and Berdychi.

In the words of few people who are in the area: ‘it’s a hell’…

That’s the situation as of this morning. We’ll see what comes out of this during the day.