I read this with distress, of course, noting that the tone is significantly different from yesterday’s Don’s Weekly, where the incidents reported seemed to be trending Ukraine’s way and which towards the end quotes a Russian blogger saying that there will be no breakthrough and that Ukrainian defence is ‘getting stronger’ even in advance of the Biden supplies. I was quite pleased by that. Also by the apparebly definite announcement by the UK, none of these accursed ‘soon, considering, maybe’. Has the situation really taken on a distinctly different look in a matter of hours?
Don is reporting only one side, enough to check few Twitter accounts, both pro-Ukranian and pro-Russian to see how the situation is really bad. I stopped reading his one-sided updates 2 months ago. Even pro Ukranian twitter accounts are now worried about the developments on the ground, unfortunately. Eom was one sided on many occasions undermining impact of FAB (killing 20-30 UAF soldiers per day) and writing in each article about decimated, mauled VKS forces while the situation is much different on the ground. UAF is short of soldiers and there are no more volunteers joining comparing to RF....I am afraid that Donbas front will collapse in next month...
Thats why its good to have both Don and Tom's reporting. Don puts time into macro issues like defense industry base and economics. This is important, because this is how the war will be progressed towards a resolution- by degrading Russia's ability to fight it. I think this is where Western nations need to also get much more creative and proactive.
Without even talking about different sources and different methodologies, different people are bound to have different sensibilities. So, it is normal if different authors offer different assessment.
I am myself pessimistic in nature (Yeah I know, it is bad, whatever) so I find myself not aligned with Don general done during the past months. Still, it is worthwhile to listen to differing perspective less you fall into an echo chamber trap.
Don and me are working in different fashion: he's collecting his updates during the week, as he finds time between his job and family. And he's preparing a 'review of the last week'.
"67th Airborne" - 67th is a Mech brigade. Possibly you're mixing it with the 46th, wich is Airborne (yet not a volunteer Right Sector unit, as the 67th is).
There's a very finite amount of mental bandwidth in the OODA loops of Biden, Blinken et al, and for the last six months, most of it's been occupied by how to run diplomatic cover for a genocide by their "greatest ally" in the Middle East.
Thanks for report Tom, Im sick of so calleed world leaders
On the other side small countries seems to be more sensitive and active
E.g. Baltics states or our Czech governrnent
Reasons are clear:
1. historical experience with both RU and superpower countries not helping to protect them
2. already officially declared by imperial russia as sphere of interest
3. altready under RU attacks for years (blown up ammo depot, hacker atacks, ...)
4. in case of UA lost to RU going to be
a. next on the list
b. having big economical issues
c. facing big vawe of refugees (millions)
5. ....
BTW what do you think about deliveries of L-39 to UA, is it usable only for training purposes or could be used also for downing UAVs and some missels (probably not for the close combat support)? Anyway to have any impact should be delivered higher tens not single units.
Ukraine has engaged in a PR thing some long time ago, and the VSRF understood after their Karkiv withdrawal of 2022 that they are fighting a war like the WWII where they need to fight even from the factories.
Why is the meaning of keep striking the Black Sea Fleet if it's not being a menace? Why not to set allá those Neptune missiles to use as Cruise missiles?
One and a half year later we are starting to see the results of this two different views.
Striking BS fleet also had an impact on Kalibre cruise missile attacks - during last months there were no launches of waves of these missiles, except occasional 1-2 missiles launched from submarines. It makes life for air defence units a bit easier (and for civilians too).
Russia isn't fighting from the factories, but from it's huge stockpiles built over 40years of Cold War era. While the West and Ukraine were happily scrapping their weapon and ammo stockpiles, Russia just kept them. Even if some is in bad shape and can only serve for cannibalization of spare parts. The current level of Russian vehicle losses and ammo use is not sustainable, but they realized that they now have a window of opportunity by going "all in" due to Ukraines lack of ammo inflicted by stupid politicians.
I agree with you Tom and I thank you for reporting about the whole picture as always. However I can't help but to find you overwhelmingly negative. Yes the situation is dire, yes the West is incompetent, yes Russia is gaining ground, yes 98% of the western population is hopelessly clueless... But you just can't spit on what is indeed good news. We know what western promises are worth but that aid package isn't just a promise, it's happening and very soon. It is so desperately late... It could have mattered so much more had it happened sooner... I am so bloody frustrated by everything that's happening and by the way the West is managed. However, after months of almost completely forgetting about Ukraine, I choose to be glad and to see hope in an awakening that is indeed happening! Way too slow, way too late... But is is happening. If we can't let ourselves have some hope, than what is left to do but to give up? I undeestand you find people cheering on social media frustrating! But would you rather they complained about "tax payers money being squandered in a lost cause"? I do not think Ukraine is a lost cause and neither that the West is completely hopeless. The slow pace at which we adapt is the unfortunate price of democracy in my opinion.
I guess what I am saying is that I get that you want to remind everyone there is really no reason to cheer. But please remember many people like me who really hold the Ukrainian cause dear, who's mood is affected every single day by the sinister developments on the battlefield, who feel terribly helpless need some sort of a light to keep hoping. This light is real. It's not as bright or as near as it could have been but it is real so I don't see the point in trying to through a blanket soaked with blood over it. Should then men and women of Ukraine not see hope in this?
I'm foremost concerned about the troops. I know, when the Russians make such a penetration like at Ocheretyne, two days ago, lots of troops got killed, yet more wounded, and some captured.
....and when I then think of all the zombie idiots proudly presenting themselves to cameras to make statements about 'aid' and 'so many arms' and whatever else, then I get sick.
Shouldn't mean Ukraine is going to lose this war. On the contrary. But, this systemic idiotism is going to make Ukraine's victory incredibly expensive. And the price is increasing every day. And when there is such a price to pay, people get bitter.
....even more so because once it's so far, then the zombie idiots are going to appear again and smile into cameras while making another glorious announcement and claiming the victory for themselves....
With other words: I'm thinking not '2', but '10-15 steps' in advance. Mind that the West won the Cold War, but then screwed up the Russians. 'Thaught' them, promptly, about what 'democracy' means for them, for the Russians. A ruin and shame. This war is a direct result of the zombie idiotism of the 1990s.
To be fair, for all the casualties Ukraine takes, they will have earned a lot of prestige as the unremarkable post-Soviet dump that has turned out to be the bravest nation of the early 21st century. Zombie idiots can beam for the camera as much as they want, hardly anyone will remember them for more than a minute.
I wouldnt be so harsh with Ukrainian strikes on Crimea or Russia proper - they seem to do what they can with the resources they have. And if there is an opportunity to damage Russia in any way then its still worthwhile to pursue this.
But the actions of the Western leaders are so incomprehensible that I dont think they are done by accident, it seems to be a more of a deliberate design to feed Ukraine to achieve some other goals, but what those goals could be im not sure. In any case if I look at the general policies of the leaders of west then it really doesnt paint the picture like they have the interests of their repsective countries at heart.
But if some of you wants to believe that West is doing what they think its right to "save the situation" then god help us as their behaviour is a level of such idiocracy that it will end up somewhere really really bad in the future.
As for the aid itself, none of it that Ive seen is addressing the Russian glide bombs - this is the reason why they are advancing.
The attitude of the west and nato with regard to this war reeks of the same shortsightednesss that the nobles of carthage expressed during hannibals invasion of rome. All they can see are opportunities to further their political games
This is inevitable- that the Russians will go all out in the face of severe shortages for the Ukrainian units. Military Aid Announcements in TV and social media like that are great and all but “bread and bullets” with the fighting soldiers is all that counts. Effing Lousy politicians
I have read Tom's basic post and the resulting comments and find myself to be simultaneously pessimistic and optimistic about Ukraine's ultimate outcome. I am no expert on land warfare, although I did learn something about the Soviet way of war when I was an officer student at the U.S. Navy War College in the 1980s. Our focus therein was on strategy & policy with only the briefest and occasional foray into the operational art. My area as a Navy Supply Corps officer was logistics and the cost ($) of fielding an effective armed force to support national foreign policies. That said, although I am confident that $60 billion or so will go a long way to help Ukraine withstand the Russian bear, it nonetheless isn't nearly enough to prevail . . . i.e., to go on a sustained offensive to shift the initiative permanently to the Ukrainian armed forces. Are we going to see another goat rope when it comes to future American appropriation of funds to support the Ukrainains after the current $60 billion has been used up?
One final observation: I realize that this is essentially an artillery war, but what will it take specifically for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian glide bombs, the air launched cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles (air launched and otherwise)? I think that I am referring to the Ukrainian achievement of air supremacy or total air supremacy.
The UK is stepping in - and hopefully/most likely will proceed in the same manner:
...The £500 million additional funding announced today - which takes us to £3 billion in UK military aid for Ukraine this financial year - will be used to rapidly deliver urgently-needed ammunition, air defence, drones and engineering support. The drones will be procured in the UK and the funds will support a scale-up in domestic defence supply chains.
The Ministry of Defence will also send our largest-ever single package of equipment from the UK, designed to help push back the Russian invasion on land, sea and air. It includes:
60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
I've read about 500 "only" Bradleys sold to Morocco, e.g. https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/abrams-morocco-bolsters-defense/ or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Royal_Moroccan_Army#Tanks
Ah, it's only 500...?
I'm feeling so much better now, can't say... 🙄
" after “donating” its T-72 tanks to Ukraine"
I read this with distress, of course, noting that the tone is significantly different from yesterday’s Don’s Weekly, where the incidents reported seemed to be trending Ukraine’s way and which towards the end quotes a Russian blogger saying that there will be no breakthrough and that Ukrainian defence is ‘getting stronger’ even in advance of the Biden supplies. I was quite pleased by that. Also by the apparebly definite announcement by the UK, none of these accursed ‘soon, considering, maybe’. Has the situation really taken on a distinctly different look in a matter of hours?
Don is reporting only one side, enough to check few Twitter accounts, both pro-Ukranian and pro-Russian to see how the situation is really bad. I stopped reading his one-sided updates 2 months ago. Even pro Ukranian twitter accounts are now worried about the developments on the ground, unfortunately. Eom was one sided on many occasions undermining impact of FAB (killing 20-30 UAF soldiers per day) and writing in each article about decimated, mauled VKS forces while the situation is much different on the ground. UAF is short of soldiers and there are no more volunteers joining comparing to RF....I am afraid that Donbas front will collapse in next month...
Thats why its good to have both Don and Tom's reporting. Don puts time into macro issues like defense industry base and economics. This is important, because this is how the war will be progressed towards a resolution- by degrading Russia's ability to fight it. I think this is where Western nations need to also get much more creative and proactive.
Without even talking about different sources and different methodologies, different people are bound to have different sensibilities. So, it is normal if different authors offer different assessment.
I am myself pessimistic in nature (Yeah I know, it is bad, whatever) so I find myself not aligned with Don general done during the past months. Still, it is worthwhile to listen to differing perspective less you fall into an echo chamber trap.
Don and me are working in different fashion: he's collecting his updates during the week, as he finds time between his job and family. And he's preparing a 'review of the last week'.
I've got the luxury of 'quick reaction time'.
"67th Airborne" - 67th is a Mech brigade. Possibly you're mixing it with the 46th, wich is Airborne (yet not a volunteer Right Sector unit, as the 67th is).
....OK, then the Mech Brigade... that's changing so much about my conclusion...
Sorry, I'm a sickener a bit. :)
Welp. In some sense this was inevitable.
There's a very finite amount of mental bandwidth in the OODA loops of Biden, Blinken et al, and for the last six months, most of it's been occupied by how to run diplomatic cover for a genocide by their "greatest ally" in the Middle East.
Think a suitable description for the Biden-Blinken-Sullivan gang would be 'The Blondes'.
....'cause: in order to understand one thing, they have to forget about something else.
There's simply no space for more in their lonesome brain cells...
I did once work with a guy who thought that the strippers had genuine feelings for him, so...
I know a journalist who asked if it's Iran or Iraq, i.e. thought that Iran is misspelling for Iraq...
It's kind of like trying to tell the difference between Mozart and kangaroos.
Thanks for report Tom, Im sick of so calleed world leaders
On the other side small countries seems to be more sensitive and active
E.g. Baltics states or our Czech governrnent
Reasons are clear:
1. historical experience with both RU and superpower countries not helping to protect them
2. already officially declared by imperial russia as sphere of interest
3. altready under RU attacks for years (blown up ammo depot, hacker atacks, ...)
4. in case of UA lost to RU going to be
a. next on the list
b. having big economical issues
c. facing big vawe of refugees (millions)
5. ....
BTW what do you think about deliveries of L-39 to UA, is it usable only for training purposes or could be used also for downing UAVs and some missels (probably not for the close combat support)? Anyway to have any impact should be delivered higher tens not single units.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/20/lithuania-transfers-l-39-attack-aircraft-to-ukraine/
Ukraine has engaged in a PR thing some long time ago, and the VSRF understood after their Karkiv withdrawal of 2022 that they are fighting a war like the WWII where they need to fight even from the factories.
Why is the meaning of keep striking the Black Sea Fleet if it's not being a menace? Why not to set allá those Neptune missiles to use as Cruise missiles?
One and a half year later we are starting to see the results of this two different views.
They keep hitting the BS fleet
1. Because they can
2. To stop landing ships delivery of war materials
3. To keep the grain route open
The Neptune is a cruise missile and there is a land attack version
Striking BS fleet also had an impact on Kalibre cruise missile attacks - during last months there were no launches of waves of these missiles, except occasional 1-2 missiles launched from submarines. It makes life for air defence units a bit easier (and for civilians too).
Russia isn't fighting from the factories, but from it's huge stockpiles built over 40years of Cold War era. While the West and Ukraine were happily scrapping their weapon and ammo stockpiles, Russia just kept them. Even if some is in bad shape and can only serve for cannibalization of spare parts. The current level of Russian vehicle losses and ammo use is not sustainable, but they realized that they now have a window of opportunity by going "all in" due to Ukraines lack of ammo inflicted by stupid politicians.
I agree with you Tom and I thank you for reporting about the whole picture as always. However I can't help but to find you overwhelmingly negative. Yes the situation is dire, yes the West is incompetent, yes Russia is gaining ground, yes 98% of the western population is hopelessly clueless... But you just can't spit on what is indeed good news. We know what western promises are worth but that aid package isn't just a promise, it's happening and very soon. It is so desperately late... It could have mattered so much more had it happened sooner... I am so bloody frustrated by everything that's happening and by the way the West is managed. However, after months of almost completely forgetting about Ukraine, I choose to be glad and to see hope in an awakening that is indeed happening! Way too slow, way too late... But is is happening. If we can't let ourselves have some hope, than what is left to do but to give up? I undeestand you find people cheering on social media frustrating! But would you rather they complained about "tax payers money being squandered in a lost cause"? I do not think Ukraine is a lost cause and neither that the West is completely hopeless. The slow pace at which we adapt is the unfortunate price of democracy in my opinion.
I guess what I am saying is that I get that you want to remind everyone there is really no reason to cheer. But please remember many people like me who really hold the Ukrainian cause dear, who's mood is affected every single day by the sinister developments on the battlefield, who feel terribly helpless need some sort of a light to keep hoping. This light is real. It's not as bright or as near as it could have been but it is real so I don't see the point in trying to through a blanket soaked with blood over it. Should then men and women of Ukraine not see hope in this?
I'm foremost concerned about the troops. I know, when the Russians make such a penetration like at Ocheretyne, two days ago, lots of troops got killed, yet more wounded, and some captured.
....and when I then think of all the zombie idiots proudly presenting themselves to cameras to make statements about 'aid' and 'so many arms' and whatever else, then I get sick.
Shouldn't mean Ukraine is going to lose this war. On the contrary. But, this systemic idiotism is going to make Ukraine's victory incredibly expensive. And the price is increasing every day. And when there is such a price to pay, people get bitter.
....even more so because once it's so far, then the zombie idiots are going to appear again and smile into cameras while making another glorious announcement and claiming the victory for themselves....
With other words: I'm thinking not '2', but '10-15 steps' in advance. Mind that the West won the Cold War, but then screwed up the Russians. 'Thaught' them, promptly, about what 'democracy' means for them, for the Russians. A ruin and shame. This war is a direct result of the zombie idiotism of the 1990s.
To be fair, for all the casualties Ukraine takes, they will have earned a lot of prestige as the unremarkable post-Soviet dump that has turned out to be the bravest nation of the early 21st century. Zombie idiots can beam for the camera as much as they want, hardly anyone will remember them for more than a minute.
I wouldnt be so harsh with Ukrainian strikes on Crimea or Russia proper - they seem to do what they can with the resources they have. And if there is an opportunity to damage Russia in any way then its still worthwhile to pursue this.
But the actions of the Western leaders are so incomprehensible that I dont think they are done by accident, it seems to be a more of a deliberate design to feed Ukraine to achieve some other goals, but what those goals could be im not sure. In any case if I look at the general policies of the leaders of west then it really doesnt paint the picture like they have the interests of their repsective countries at heart.
But if some of you wants to believe that West is doing what they think its right to "save the situation" then god help us as their behaviour is a level of such idiocracy that it will end up somewhere really really bad in the future.
As for the aid itself, none of it that Ive seen is addressing the Russian glide bombs - this is the reason why they are advancing.
The goals are:
Feed their own defense manufacturing companies;
Weaken Russia;
Win elections;
Try to 'save the face'
Thanks Tom!
The attitude of the west and nato with regard to this war reeks of the same shortsightednesss that the nobles of carthage expressed during hannibals invasion of rome. All they can see are opportunities to further their political games
This is inevitable- that the Russians will go all out in the face of severe shortages for the Ukrainian units. Military Aid Announcements in TV and social media like that are great and all but “bread and bullets” with the fighting soldiers is all that counts. Effing Lousy politicians
It is killing me as well. Thank you so much.
It is killing me as well. Thank you so much.
I have read Tom's basic post and the resulting comments and find myself to be simultaneously pessimistic and optimistic about Ukraine's ultimate outcome. I am no expert on land warfare, although I did learn something about the Soviet way of war when I was an officer student at the U.S. Navy War College in the 1980s. Our focus therein was on strategy & policy with only the briefest and occasional foray into the operational art. My area as a Navy Supply Corps officer was logistics and the cost ($) of fielding an effective armed force to support national foreign policies. That said, although I am confident that $60 billion or so will go a long way to help Ukraine withstand the Russian bear, it nonetheless isn't nearly enough to prevail . . . i.e., to go on a sustained offensive to shift the initiative permanently to the Ukrainian armed forces. Are we going to see another goat rope when it comes to future American appropriation of funds to support the Ukrainains after the current $60 billion has been used up?
One final observation: I realize that this is essentially an artillery war, but what will it take specifically for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian glide bombs, the air launched cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles (air launched and otherwise)? I think that I am referring to the Ukrainian achievement of air supremacy or total air supremacy.
The UK is stepping in - and hopefully/most likely will proceed in the same manner:
...The £500 million additional funding announced today - which takes us to £3 billion in UK military aid for Ukraine this financial year - will be used to rapidly deliver urgently-needed ammunition, air defence, drones and engineering support. The drones will be procured in the UK and the funds will support a scale-up in domestic defence supply chains.
The Ministry of Defence will also send our largest-ever single package of equipment from the UK, designed to help push back the Russian invasion on land, sea and air. It includes:
60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-to-announce-largest-ever-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-on-visit-to-poland
The possible results of the absurdly stupid behavior of Biden &co, not providing enough ammo are two:
1 an humiliating defeat of the western countries, followed by many interesting side effects like invasion of Taiwan, of some island around and Japan.
2 the need to send weapons AND men instead of weapons only.
We can also remember Churchill's words: you had to choose between war and dishonor. You chooses dishonor and got both.