Ukraine War, 23 April 2024: Crisis
Hello everybody!
Must admit, I’m getting seriously tired of all the celebrations about the US military aid, and announcements about how much military aid is who in the EU ‘considering’, ‘planning’, and/or ‘preparing’ to send to Ukraine….or ever new discussions under what conditions could Kyiv get German-made Taurus KEPD missiles…
Who the fuck cares?
Matter of fact is: the stuff is not in Ukraine. Period.
It might, but it also might not get to Ukraine – in days, weeks or months. Nobody really knows. Thus, ‘celebrating’ this in the social media is like celebrating the destruction of another Russian truck: there are ‘5 million’ others waiting right behind it. ….or like idolising politicians: you seriously think a stripper in the night club performing a lap-dance is having serious feelings for you?
Face it and accept it: the reason why the Russians managed to reach Chasiv Yar, have reached Ocheretyne, and have captured Novomykailivka, is that the ZSU is meanwhile short even on anti-tank mines. Not only on artillery shells or anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). Yes, the FPVs are used by hundreds, but: we only get to see videos of the few that have scored ‘spectacular hits’. We do not get to see dozens that were jammed, have hit without effect, or have missed. Perhaps sometimes in the future they’re going to become much more effective. But, right now, the FPVs are a ‘complement’: no replacement for artillery ammunition, no replacement for mines, no replacement for ATGMs, no replacement for infantry fighting vehicles etc. – which are simply not available.
….and until they do become available, and then in sufficient numbers – which is going to take months at best – there is no need for any kind of celebrations.
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AIR/MISSILE WARFARE
Yup, the PSU and ZSU are exploiting the destruction of the HQ 31st Air Defence Division at Dzhankoi to hit few additional things in the occupied Crimea. Between others have deployed a Neptune anti-ship missile to strike something inside the port of Sevastopol.
Now, what exactly was hit is actually unclear, but word is that the submarine tender Komuna was badly damaged. Arguably, this was constructed back in 1915…
…at least one thing is sure: this is NOT going to have any kind of positive effects upon developments in the Donbas. Because, and just like that ‘UAV offensive on the Russian refineries’, it has absolutely no effects upon the capability of the VKS to continue pounding ZSU frontlines with 150+ glide bombs a day.
….which is what is enabling the Russian assault groups to continue advancing.
What a surprise then, the last two days the VKS is pounding places like Pokrovsk, Moskovske, Halytsynivka and similar – all 5-40km behind the frontline in the Avdiivka-Shakhtarsk sector, and in addition to all the air strikes directly on Ukrainian positions along the frontline.
For the information of specific general over there in Kyiv: that’s called ‘interdiction’ and serves the purpose of disrupting the flow of reinforcements and supplies (as far as there are any) for Ukrainian troops in the first line of defence.
Yes, the VKS can afford doing that because the PSU remains being critically short on surface-to-air missiles. For the information of all the idiotic decision-makers in the West: it’s pointless to (belatedly) ‘scramble’ to get ‘more Patriots to Ukraine’ - if there are not enough missiles for them. That’s an issue you should’ve taken care about already a year ago, but didn’t.
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BATTLE OF DONBAS
While Zelensky is happy to announce the production of 10 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers a month, and Budyanov babbling about a coming crisis of the ZSU ‘in May 2024 or so’, there is a serious crisis on several points along the frontline in the Donbas already right now. Which is unsurprising considering this crisis is in the making for the last seven months, already: when one is, actually, pitting infantry armed with assault rifles and few remaining RPGs (like ZSU is forced to do) against a continuously assaulting enemy supported by air strikes, artillery, and armoured vehicles for much too long (like VSRF can afford to do): results are unavoidable.
Bakhmut… while the VSRF is busy consolidating positions it has reached in the last few days, the VKS is systematically pulverising ZSU positions in the Kanal and Novyi Districts of Chasiv Yar with its UMPK glide bombs.
At least it looks like if somebody there was sane enough to get the 67th Mech out of the place and replace it with units that can do their job?
If so… and this appears to be the case (because the 67th is nowhere to be seen around Chasiv Yar any more): well, there you have your ‘The Butcher’, specific Ukrainians…
Avdiivka-Shakhtarsk… the Russian penetration of the Ukrainian new defence line in the Ocheretyne sector is getting nothing else but nasty. Indeed: meanwhile, it’s deeper than their penetration at Popasna, back in May 2022. Supported by dozens of air strikes and massive volumes of artillery fire, the Russians have not only captured the railway station of Ocheretyne, but are in the process of advancing into the centre of the town.
What’s worse: north-east of this penetration, the VKS is already pounding ZSU positions of the 129th TD Brigade in Novokalynove and Keramik with UMPKs, while south of it the VSRF is hard at widening this penetration through attacks on the 3rd Assault in Berdychi from the north, and through pulverising Semenivka with fire from multiple rocket launchers.
….Hope, Biden & Co KG GesmbH AG are proud that the 47th Mech is meanwhile short even on 25mm ammo for its M2/M3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (not only on 120mm shells for its M1 Abrams tanks): both the deliveries of 800 Bradleys to Morocco, and billions in military aid for Israel are surely going to increase stability in those parts of the world… and deter the Chinese from invading Taiwan, too…
Pervomaiske is meanwhile completely under the Russian control, and it’s only thanks to the skilled holding action by the 59th Motorised and the fact the VSRF is meanwhile unable to organise itself any better and advance at a higher pace, that the Russians haven’t attacked Netailove and Nevelske - yet.
(…at least this could prevent Ukrainians from panicking about some sort of a ‘super-big’ Russian offensive on Kharkiv, but well: who am I to say…)
Novomykhailivka… the 79th Airborne and the 116th TD Brigades are meanwhile facing elements of the Russian 36th Motor Rifle- and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades, 7 different Motor-Rifle Regiments, and the 10th Tank Regiment. And are both under near-constant strikes by glide-bombs. What a surprise, after more than a year, the Russians have completely captured the village, yesterday… Unsurprisingly, the Russians are advancing on a wide front south of Novomykhailivka, and thus on the best way of reaching the road connecting Kostiantyrivka with Vuhledar in the south: all the defence successes of the 72nd and 79th of last 16 months are on the best way to become completely in vain.
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I could go on with similar descriptions, but the point is this: there is a limit of what any kind of armed force – regardless how brave and/or skilled – can endure. When that limit is reached, then the results are unavoidable.
I agree with you Tom and I thank you for reporting about the whole picture as always. However I can't help but to find you overwhelmingly negative. Yes the situation is dire, yes the West is incompetent, yes Russia is gaining ground, yes 98% of the western population is hopelessly clueless... But you just can't spit on what is indeed good news. We know what western promises are worth but that aid package isn't just a promise, it's happening and very soon. It is so desperately late... It could have mattered so much more had it happened sooner... I am so bloody frustrated by everything that's happening and by the way the West is managed. However, after months of almost completely forgetting about Ukraine, I choose to be glad and to see hope in an awakening that is indeed happening! Way too slow, way too late... But is is happening. If we can't let ourselves have some hope, than what is left to do but to give up? I undeestand you find people cheering on social media frustrating! But would you rather they complained about "tax payers money being squandered in a lost cause"? I do not think Ukraine is a lost cause and neither that the West is completely hopeless. The slow pace at which we adapt is the unfortunate price of democracy in my opinion.
I guess what I am saying is that I get that you want to remind everyone there is really no reason to cheer. But please remember many people like me who really hold the Ukrainian cause dear, who's mood is affected every single day by the sinister developments on the battlefield, who feel terribly helpless need some sort of a light to keep hoping. This light is real. It's not as bright or as near as it could have been but it is real so I don't see the point in trying to through a blanket soaked with blood over it. Should then men and women of Ukraine not see hope in this?
Welp. In some sense this was inevitable.
There's a very finite amount of mental bandwidth in the OODA loops of Biden, Blinken et al, and for the last six months, most of it's been occupied by how to run diplomatic cover for a genocide by their "greatest ally" in the Middle East.