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I would expect RS-26 would be spent to something more juicy in Kyiv (like some HQ or government building) to show PAC-2/3 Patriots cannot shot down it. Or is there any chance Patriots could hit it so it could be the reason Russians have no targeted Kyiv?

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Following failures (i.e. shot-downs) of all their other 'hyper-weapons', the Russians were certainly not as crazy as to go targeting Kyiv with stuff like RS-26 or RS-24 - only to have these shot down, too.

For such 'power demonstrations', Dnipro is a far 'more suitable target'.

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Thank you!

The reported by HUR strike was for Belgorod region on 18th, with UAVs. It seems for this one there is not yet additional/official information, besides that it was undergroud comms/command center.

As for the ICBM it is unliky in response to that, since embassies started folding previous day. And after SS strike, before ICBM, US told their embassy back to normal as of today. So probably they knew it was going to be Dnipro or somethinng.

So most probably it is in response to arsenal/atacams of the previous day.

With Rubezh I saw somewhere that a couple of them left from the previous years, but not any more. And also heard that UA has a Zenit or similar in store, which can be used from underground facility. By the way two month ago when announcing Palianytsia, the footage that was shown was to large degree concerning something big, like ICBM. So it was a kind of strange, when talking about small drone: https://youtu.be/r1NJgDpV5MM

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Sorry, don't understand now. The HUR has hit something in Belgorod with UAVs on 18th... OK, can follow that far.

But, the underground HQ in that recreational centre was hit by Storm Shadows.

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Well they were mentioning for that one to be group Sever command post. So maybe this one is another command post, for the same group Sever. But nothing like main/central command post was mentioned, so it is some command post. Whatever it means anyway.

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Or another option this was an info operation. Like "we hit a group Sever command post". "Relax boys, they dont know where we are, unpack your suitcases". Two days after, bam, there is no THE group Sever command post anymore.

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21Author

AFAIK, any Russian Army Group would have at least three HQs: main, alternative and forward.

A strike by 12 Storm Shadows against one... well, even the Russians say, 'must've been something particularly important' (i.e. 'big').

Anyway, thanks for the 'tipp': yes, Maryno and Gubkin are two different places, so have updated the report, and 'split' them apart. This is making it likely that yes, the first was a strike on the 'forward' or 'alternative' HQ, the second the strike on 'main' HQ Group Sever.

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Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Hi Tom,

I think there could be a possible confusion regarding Maryino. Sanatorium Maryino (former Baryatinsky manison) is located near Rylsk in Kursk Oblast´. I've been there once in my former life.

It looks loke there were two separate strikes - Gubkin and Maryino. Rumors say there was a communication bunker near the manison, in the park.

https://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=51.587443&lon=34.941888&z=15&m=w&search=%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%8C%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%20%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B9

Kind regards,

Dimitri

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Seems like a waste of an ICBM. I think this is part of the nuclear sabre rattling Russia likes to engage in.

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I would not say it is a waste. Clearly demonstrated that it can fly towards designated target, not to fall in midair. Then separable blocks deattach themselves, and also submunitions separate as well. A very high probabily of succesful strike was demonstrated, since in case of nuke it is enough of 1 of 36 subheads reach the target, if I understand correctly. Plus tested orbit and designation to a particular city. I do not think that there would be any response to that, like further escalation, but also no step back. So things will contnue as is tor now. Though let us say Tomahawks or anyhthing like that will not happen ever. Let's see.

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Well, not exactly 1 of 36, as most of those are always dummies. There are 6 warheads, but lacking a reliable way of telling which 6 are the payload, all 36 need to be shot down. Otherwise some luck/knowledge needed if fewer are intercepted. Anyway "1 of 36 is enough" is overstating it.

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Disagree - Putin told us NUCLEAR WAR if any western robot hit Russia.

He gave us an emplty ICBM.

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Well I have not heard any direct statements as that, only hints without particular substance, that can be perceived by each person differently depending on how vivid is their fantasy.

But the point is, should he (major P.) do this escalation right after Kursk incursion, there is a significant chance atacams/storms would never start hitting Bryansk, Kursk (and hopefuly more these days).

And the same is actually with other steps, I am sure he's regretting not using more of his military in 2014-2015. I am sure he is regretting not using more of his forces and focus on capturing Kyiv. I am sure he is regretting leaving Kherson. Considering how much troops he spents now, it was much better then. So I am sure he is regretting not doing any of this type of escalation right after Kursk. But then maybe it took quite some time to prepare this piece for launch.

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That's relative. If they have only prototypes/0-series of the RS-26 on hand, but 'not in operational service' with Missile Forces, then 'it simply doesn't matter'.

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1. I believe that the cost of launching an ICBM with non-nuclear warheads far exceeds the damage from even a direct hit. Which in itself is unlikely. This is a so-called "psychic attack".

2.The authenticity of the video recording of the landings cannot be verified. Especially since the original source of the publication is Russian. Until there is an expert examination of the debris, it makes no sense to talk about the type of missile.

3. And one more thing: showing the whole world and a potential enemy the real accuracy of your "unparalleled" weapon is simply stupid. However, this does not apply to the Kremlin.

4. Test launches of missiles of this class are publicly announced, with the trajectory and target indicated. Otherwise, such a launch could be regarded as the beginning of a nuclear attack.

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21

Tom, do you think PSU did hit anything worth spending 12 Storm Shadow missiles on?

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I'm quite sure it has.

Even more so because Storm Shadows are not aimed by Ukrainians: targeting is done by the British, the missiles then brought to the Ukrainian border, picked up from there by PSU personnel, brought to the selected base, loaded on aircraft, and then the mission starts.

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So moat likely also Western Intelligence involved in finding and choosing the target?

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Foremost the Western intel.

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It's too long and doesn't fit into the chronology of events. They got permission, and literally a few hours later there was a strike. It's possible that the British are preparing the flight program, but they load it into the missile already at the airfield. There was a photo of a Ukrainian soldier programming a missile already suspended from an airplane from a laptop.

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The headline suggests that this is a comical rather than a terrifying form of rage, though the discussion is plain and factual.

Whatever has deterred Putin from using nukes is presumably still in place. Is it conceivable that his atacms/stormshadows would make all the difference to his calculations now?

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Don't think so. There are numerous reasons why Putin can't deploy nukes. Aside from the fact that the mass of the Russian population is concentrated in just two areas - Moscow and St Petersburg, and thus extremely vulnerable to counter-strikes in kind - other reasons are such like the Chinese and Indian warnings not to go nuclear, and then uncertainty if everybody involved (some 24+ instances) would follow the order, and if the weapons in question would really work.

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Thanks - for what it’s worth that’s what I think. Can’t imagine how the use of this weaponry changes his calculations so drastically as is being suggested.

I note from BBC that the intercontinental nature of the missile is being questioned from the American side

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I think it depends on how long range a missile should have to be called interkontinental. Read somewhere that this was a little short ranged for an ICBM. Whatever, it was designed for nukes. And is of course extremely expensive relative to its damage without nukes, but that doesnt entre into Putins equation. One has to Wonder of course what he was so furios for.

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The headline suggests that this is a comical rather than a terrifying form of rage, though the discussion is plain and factual.

Whatever has deterred Putin from using nukes is presumably still in place. Is it conceivable that his atacms/stormshadows would make all the difference to his calculations now?

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I have often wondered if those ICBMs in silos still worked?

I remember the stories of them sitting in meters of water.

Although probably this was not a silo launch, but from a missile carrier, photo here

https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-russias-potential-deployment-of-rs-26-rubezh-missile-sparks-legitimate-alarm-expert

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A few month ago a silo blew up. But while russias complete arsenal is unlikly to be well maintained they definitly have some = enough that work.

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Apparently, this one was not fired from a silo, but either from a mobile TEL or from one of launch pads used for testing.

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks, I overlooked the test pads which are an obvious launch choice.

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Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you very much.

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Astrahan to Dnipro looks less than 1,000 km, so makes an uneducated swine like myself question whether even a "a short range" ICBM like an RS-26 is able to shoot a parabola that tall and narrow.

Also, if it was indeed an ICBM on a straight up and down trajectory,, the whole world would have seen it, so someone is being an idiot, either Kyiv for claiming it or everyone denying it.

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I have not found an official statement from Ukraine about ICBMs. Falsehoods from Russia about an allegedly planned ICBM attack appeared on the Internet yesterday, and all the media happily inflated this very clickbait nonsense. Russian propaganda continues to broadcast this fake news even now, while there are no official comments either.

I think it's a psychic attack.

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Today there was a new Russian missile. All characteristics - speed, altitude - of an intercontinental ballistic [missile]. Examinations are currently ongoing. /// this is not a statement or even an assumption.

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AFAIK, the RS-26 was sometimes assessed as an 'intermediate range' version of the RS-24: one stage less, and max range between 3,000 and 5,800km.

Ukrainians do call it an ICBM, though. Videos are showing a straight down trajectory, too.

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So now, and especially with Trump coming in, we are in the phase of "it's all over bar playing footsie on the escalation ladder." That's a particularly stupid place to be. Meanwhile Starmer, today, with nuclear-scale hypocrisy invoked "international law and Article 51 of the UN Charter" (self defense) for Ukraine - a week after telling the Commons that Israel wasn't committing genocide in Gaza, because he "knew what the definition of genocide was." This shower of absolute idiots have lost on every front. The only question is how much carnage are they going to cause in their denial before admitting it...

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Genocide is surely violence intended to make the genos unable to function and pursue its interests. I think that’s happening in Gaza and Ukraine

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I hope that the effectiveness of the Ukrainian use of Stormshadows will become clear soon

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21

I dont agree that this about rage and emotions. Putin has previously declared that ATACMS launches are a red line. Biden crossed it to help Ukraine or to sloght Trump. Putin has informed everyone that he will launch an ICBM în response. The question is what happens next.

There is an escalation and it depends on Biden now if it's going to be a litle radioactivity în Ukraine. That's very re-assuring from a senile dying man.

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Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Pudding couldn’t care less if the PSU used U.S.-guided Minuteman III missiles to strike bases deep in Siberia. In fact, it might even be better for him: "out of sight, out of mind" for Muscovites and St. Petersburg residents—no need to bother hiding it.

Pudding cares ONLY and foremost about his personal pockets and interests.

We should stop confusing trash talk with politics.

The same goes for the ultramegahypermaximegaxxxxxxlsobiiiiiiiiiig ventilated “nuclear doctrine update,” which, for years, has merely coincided with Russia’s economic policies, internal affairs, and overall military maneuvers: “whatever serves Putin’s personal interests best today.”

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You are confused about Putin.

He could have lined his pockets just like Eltsyn. Just be friend with US and get rich.

He cares about his idea of Rusia and his idea of Russian people. And he îs a very serious man

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Sending hundreds of thousands of your citizens to their deaths and destroying your country's economy is caring about people?

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Point, but he wants to shine in the history books as the great leader that restored Russia. Cost doesnt matter. It didnt to Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Stalin…

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21

For people like him it's not about money, it's about power. Clearly he doesn't care about Russian people, you are delusional to think that. The people are just a tool for him.

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Well, if he's so serious, he better take care not to provoke a nuclear war.

Otherwise, he's going to go down in history as the jerk that destroyed Russia...

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Sorry man, but this (and I'm saying this hand on heart and without any kind of rage or disrespect) is just propaganda trash.

Putin repeatedly proved how much does really care about "Mother Russia", "Russian culture" and "Russian people": zero.

Believe me and the writer of this blog: if Pudding tomorrow convinces himself that razing the whole ah-so-beloved motherland (for which is actually asking hundreds of thousands of ah-so-beloved young Russians to DIE) to a nuclear wasteland would grant him, and only himself, infinte wealth, he would order to strike immediately without the blink of an eye.

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It's also rather easy to justify without abandoning pretense of "caring for Russia", just like Hitler in his last days apparently believed that German people have failed to do their part and deserve destruction. "They didn't deserve me"

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He lined his pockets without being friendly with the U.S.

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Seriously? Are you aware that around 40% of ru wealth is disappearing in the pockets of P. system? That could be 200-300 bln. a year, cash. Does it ever compare with some crumbs from US? The richest of US, Musk, how much in cash he actually has? Laughable...

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Shall I list everything he's declared for 'red line' in the case of Ukraine?

Mind: that list is starting with Javelin ATGMs...

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This is the story of the boy who cried wolf. At some point the wolf will materialize.

And we will explain to our children why we had a nuclear war because of a senile old man.

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Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Which senile old man? Putin or Biden? Then again, perhaps also Trump whom I perceive at age 78 [and given his recent rants ... I mean speeches(?)] ... is on the very cusp of cognitive impairment, if not outright dementia.

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Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

We have already tried appeasing one dictator who were blackmailing the world. Guess what, the war happened anyway, but on the conditions more favourable to the dictator.

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Unfortunately, the Western world, just like a hundred years ago, does not want to understand this. And not only its top. Most residents of Western Europe and the USA believe that this war will not affect them.

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Putin is as old and as senile as Biden and Trump. So, in this regards, yes: cannot but agree with you.

Though, whether they might really provoke a nuclear war: I would recommend checking the distribution of the Russian population.

Namely, over 50% of the same is living in Moscow. Means: one nuke there, and Putin has nothing left to rule. He can spend the rest of his life inside a bunker, of course...

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Um, what? Some quick numbers from google:

Moscow (city) =13.1 mln

Moscow (oblast) = 8.5 mln

Central Federal District = 40 mln

Russia = 144 mln

That's very far from "50% in Moscow".

Or did you mean "Russian" as in "ethnic Russian" (whatever that might mean today)?

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IIRC, Putin is not exactly purely "ethnic Russian." Doesn't he have some Asiatic ancestry in him? Not that it matters, I suppose.

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Nov 22·edited Nov 22

Well, I'm not sure how much people in ex-USSR (aka former ex-Russian Empire) are still "purely" anything. :) Or how much people in the world, for that matter... Well, maybe in Amazonia or North Sentinel Island...

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Let's put it this way: 50% of economic activity is concentrated in Moscow. And finance is probably 90%

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Which NATO country will risk a nuclear exchange for Ukraine?

Putin can speak coherently, does not forget where he îs and does not forget the names of people around him.

There's only one senile president and it is Biden.

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None.

BTW, what 'President of the Russian Federation' is going to risk a nuclear exchange for Ukraine?

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This is logical nonsense. Screams does not make wolf materialising unless the wolf hears the scream.

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The guy already decided to tell his children Biden is to blame for nuclear war. He's cooked.

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What is the reasoning behind Putin launching nuclear weapons, and how does that work out for him? It’s saber rattling, nothing more.

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It is a warning as în:

- warning în 2008 and capture of Crimeea în 2014

- several warnings în 2021 and invasion în 2022

- warning against NATO weapons and annexation of 4 oblasts.

You are talking about an ex-KGB guy who rusesc a violent society and you imagine that he îs just talk.

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From your comments it can be understood that Putin is an authority for you?

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He is a man in a dangerous position and he can create nasty staff.

People have not expected him to take Crimeea or to invade în 2022. So I preffer not to underestimate him.

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The source of the RS-24 leak is Russian blogger Yuri Podoljka, a former small trader and now a "military expert". My God, has the world really become so stupid that it seriously discusses the chatter of fairground buffoons?

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It is just very interesting that this is happening basically immediately after Trump got elected. Is the arms lobby so scared of empty order books for 4 years, once Trump is in office?

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Nope, it's example of Trump idiocy. First Trump boasts all bullshit about ending war in 24 hrs. Then calls Putin and warns him not to escalate the conflict. What Putin does? Biggest air attack to Ukraine ever, of course. Just to show Trump who is tough guy in this game. So, what can Biden do? Either ignore it, it's not his business anymore, or to show Putin USA is not only Trumps.

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Nov 21·edited Nov 21Liked by Sarcastosaurus

One thing to know or to realize about Trump, idiot though he may be: He is neither a conservative nor a liberal. He is a transactional person. Everything about him involves the "big deal." What do you want and what is in it for me? Trump's transactional preferences will not be for the good of the Republican party, the country, the world, for peace in our times, for morality (hah!), for the benefit of the U.S. economy, for the well-being of our allies (specifically for the West), or whatever else you might think is the best for all concerned. It's all about him. The toxic narcissist will always ask his opposite number, "What is in it for me?" It will always be about him and for him. This makes him a very dangerous man IMHO.

What I consider of supreme importance about Trump in relationship with Putin is whether or not Trump can take the measure of the man that is Putin. Trump may be a moron (I prefer the term to idiot), but he is particularly adept in gaging the emotional make-up of an individual confronting him or of a whole class of people (e.g., the MAGA Reps, "good ole boys," or fellow morons). Can Trump take-in the full measure of Putin? Putin is a dangerous, Hitler-esque (or is it Stalin-esque) character. I am not at all sure that Trump has the mettle to deal with the KGB thug that I perceive Putin is.

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There are plenty of rumors that he cooperated with the mob in NY to get his buildings constructed. In that respect he has more experience than Biden or Obama. You have to acknowledge that he made the Assad thug stop using chemical weapons, even that thug is supported by the thug in the Kremlin.

I did believe Putin when he said, he preferred Biden over Trump. Simply because that's what he has experience in handling for 12 ,"successful" years. That was not so much the case in the 4 Trump years.

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Putin new he would harm reputation of U.S. presidential candidate he express his preference. So, he said he preferred Biden because he wanted to harm him and in fact he supported Trump this way.

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That is what everybody expected, so did he do that to match your expectation and trick you that way? :D

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Could you explain me then please, how ATACMS were deployed within 24 hours - even they are programmed outside of Ukraine and need to be brought into Ukraine as Tom said, and Storm Shadow within 48 hours, where Tom wrote in this text, that people in the West were astonished, that they can bring all 12 airborne at once?

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